French Election Gets Close

The French right-wing represented by Marine Le Pen has closed the gap with centrist President Emmanuel Macron by toning down the immigration and cultural issues and emphasizing the cost of living, especially gas prices. Could she win? Since mid-March, Macron’s vote measured by a French “poll of polls” average has slipped from more than 30 percent to 25 to 28 percent. Le Pen has increased from 17 percent to now 20 to 23 percent, or about a 5-point gap. Two other candidates have about 25 percent, representing the far-left Jean-Luc Melenchon (about 15%) and the far-right Eric Zemmour and center-right Valerie Pecresse (17% together).

The second round voter intentions (more speculative at this point) have also closed from more than 20 points in mid-March to between 3 to 8 points now with Macron winning (Marcon 53% to Le Pen 47%).