It is nearly universally believed that the Democrats will lose the House of Representatives. The only debate focuses on the size of the new Republican majority – ten or less or 40 or more as in the great shellackings of 1994, 2010 and 2018. But, the latest assessment on Senate seats from several sources see Republicans with a distinct advantage to also win the Senate. The map below is Larry Sabato’s latest (3-1-12) Crystal Ball posting, which describes Democrats with 47 seats, Republicans with 49 (counting those likely, lean, safe or not up by the respective parties).
Crystal Ball – Senate Race
Unfortunately for the Democrats, the analysts believe the four toss-ups lean Republican in spite of having three Democratic incumbents, with two in the West – Arizona (Mark Kelly) and Nevada (Catherine Cortez Masto) – and one in the South – Georgia (Raphael Warnock). It cites the problems of the normal anti-first term tide, the economy (inflation), Biden’s especially heavy drag, and in all three states, some form of cultural issue – which Democrats haven’t found an adequate response – immigration, crime and parental school involvement (race, gender).
See Center for Politics: Notes on the State of the Senate
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