Wednesday, April 28, 2021

Colorado Political Experts Assess the First 100 Days

The first 100 days has been a noted presidential milestone since FDR took office in 1933. It has become an historical standard in assessing new presidents’ accomplishments against their campaign promises and the public’s and Washington’s early expectations.

The Crossley Center, with the Korbel School and the Center on American Politics, presents a panel moderated by University of Denver Chancellor Jeremy Haefner on “President Biden’s First 100 Days.” I will join the Chancellor and noted political scientists Tom Cronin, Andrea Benjamin and Seth Masket who will comprise the panel. (See background on presenters here).

Four years ago on May 1, 2017, the Crossley Center, as part of its public engagement programming, sponsored a 100-day assessment of former President Trump. In spite of near-saturation media coverage and a few popular accomplishments, including the Neil Gorsuch confirmation and missile strikes in Syria, Trump’s approval rating declined to 42 percent at the 100-day mark after a weak start, and disapproval soared to well above 50 percent. (See blog: Pre-100-Day Polls in on Trump; Not Good)

President Biden, after a chaotic transition, is benefiting from a modest honeymoon with his 100-day approval at 53 percent, or about 10 points higher than Trump’s at this point. Join the panel as it compares, contrasts and assesses Biden’s first 100 days. (See blog: Difficult Midterm Election Shapes Biden’s 100-Day Strategy)

Floyd Ciruli
Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research

MAY 4, 2021
11:00 am MT

President Franklin D. Roosevelt signs the Emergency
Banking Act into law, March 9, 1933 | AP photo 

Tuesday, April 27, 2021

Climate Summit – A Diplomatic Success for Biden

Pledges on climate change have had mixed impact over the more than two decades since the first agreements (Kyoto Accords in 1997), but President Biden’s recent climate summit was at least a diplomatic success demonstrating there is an international constituency for the issue and after a four-year absence, America could still lead on it.

Biden assembled country leaders virtually, including most of Europe and major countries in Latin America (Brazil, Argentina), Asia (China, Japan, India, Australia), Africa (South Africa, Nigeria), Middle East (Turkey, Saudi Arabia) and U.S. neighbors (Mexico and Canada).

German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, summarized much of Europe’s and other democratic allies’ sentiments when she said:

“I’m delighted to see that the United States is back to work together with us in climate politics, because there can be no doubt about the world needing your contribution if we really want to fulfill our ambitious goals.” 

German Chancellor Angela Merkel takes part in virtual international climate
summit with President Biden, April 22, 2021 | Pool photo by Kay Nietfeld

Monday, April 26, 2021

Coercive Diplomacy – Russia and Ukraine

Wall Street Journal headlines:

  • U.S. warns Russia over Navalny’s Care, 4-19-21
  • Biden’s hardline on Russia splits Europe, 4-20-21
  • Russia moves forces near Ukraine border, 4-21-21
  • Putin retains popularity despite wave of protest, 4-21-21
  • Putin intensifies warning as protests widen, 4-22-21
  • Russia to scale back Ukraine border force, 4-23-21

The Wall Street Journal headlines capture Vladimir Putin’s latest foray into threats and mobilization and the Western democratic countries’ pushbacks. The West had their last experience with Mr. Putin in March 2014 as he absorbed Crimea and destabilized Eastern Ukraine.

As of the end of April, it’s uncertain if there will be a real incursion – most experts believe not – or just another of his exercises in diplomatic coercion. The benefits for Putin are:

  • It distracts from Alexei Navalny and the protests
  • It gins up Russian nationalist sentiments just as he gives annual speech. It helps maintain his 60 plus percent favorability.
  • It tests Mr. Biden, NATO and European resolve and unity
  • It warns Kiev’s leadership to keep its distance from NATO and the West – “the red line”
  • It promotes division and chaos in democracies. Putin’s long time objectives.

If Putin sees diplomatic or military weakness, he will exploit it.

Russia Takes the Crimea

Russian President Vladimir Putin, center; Defense Minister Sergei
Shoigu, left; and the commander of the Western Military District
Anatoly Sidorov, right, March 3, 2014 | AP photo

Friday, April 23, 2021

Polling in 2020 and Its Future

Polling predicted a very good Democratic year in November 2020, which didn’t happen, or at least not as predicted. But, polling has already started in 2021 concerning the president, national politics and the 2022 election. What happened in 2020? Has polling changed because of it? If not, will it or were the problems mostly related to the pandemic and Trump’s unique candidacy? Join pollster and DU professor Floyd Ciruli for a conversation on what happened to polling in 2020 and its future.

OLLI will host a presentation on June 29, 2021 from 10:00 am to 11:30 am MT. More information on OLLI, click here.

President Biden’s First 100 Days

The first 100 days of a new presidency is an historical standard established during President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s rush to meet the crisis of the Great Depression in 1933. The number of days is arbitrary and the standard subjective, but it has been used by presidents, politicians, the media and historians as an early indicator of leadership style and policy ever since. In 2021, what are the expectations? What were Biden’s early wins and misses, and what’s next?

Join University of Denver Chancellor Jeremy Haefner, the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research and the Center on American Politics in a presentation by political scientists and experts to review President Joe Biden’s First 100 Days in office and the implications for America’s future domestic and foreign policy.

MAY 4, 2021
11:00 am MT

Sponsored by the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies and Center on American Politics

Thursday, April 22, 2021

Market Likes Start of Biden Program

Donald Trump believed his re-election was assured regardless of the public dislike of his personality, much of his behavior and some of his policies because the stock market was up. Adjoined with his claim was that if Joe Biden was elected, there’d be a market crash and pension fund losses. He was wrong on both claims. The stock market recovered strongly after the pandemic-caused downturn, but it wasn’t enough to make up for the public’s assessment of his COVID-19 mismanagement. Also, contrary to his prediction, the market has continued to climb since Biden became president, up 10.5 percent as of April 21, 2021.

President Biden has been rewarded by investors because he adopted a limited focused strategy. He prioritized the essential elements for concerned Americans and the economic recovery: get everyone vaccinated and put money into the economy. One additional priority he’d like to pass – infrastructure – has elements his liberal base want and items he believes are needed to compete with China. He’s already signed is a stack of executive orders, which undo the most aggravating Trump policies, and finally, he’s had an aggressive appointment process that has brought in a diverse group of ready-to-go professionals.  So far, the Democratic Party is holding together.

The market likes this approach. So do the polls. Biden remains at the mid-50 percent level, a near miracle in these polarized times, and ten points ahead of Trump four years ago.

The table shows the Dow Jones average by dates in the Trump presidency (Jan. 20, 2017, 19732, to Jan. 20, 20201, 30930).

See: Market Crosses 30000 in Year of Historic Disruption

Wednesday, April 21, 2021

“Louie Louie” – 1964

“Louie Louie” was one of the anthems of Baby Boomers as the first wave entered their 18th year and graduated from high school.

As I entered Chicago in December 1964, “Louie Louis” was played and replayed on jukeboxes and record players at parties and dance clubs. What had shifted from a popular dance sound to an anthem was the governor of Indiana declaring the lyrics, which are mostly unintelligible as obscene. Then we had to play it.

Mike Mitchell, the lead guitarist from the band’s start, just passed away. He was still playing.

Lots of good memories.

Founding guitarist Mike Mitchell (right) with
the Kingsmen in 1964 | Michael Ochs Archives

Read RollingStone: Mike Mitchell, Guitarist on the Kingsmen’s “Louie Louie,” Dead at 77

Tuesday, April 20, 2021

Difficult Midterm Election Shapes Biden’s 100-Day Strategy

Joe Biden understands he has little time to accomplish the legislative agenda he believes his election provided him. He has wisely focused on the public’s highest priorities of pandemic management and COVID-19 financial relief. Infrastructure, his next big item, is a lower public priority, but has powerful constituencies. It will be a longer project, but doable in the first year.

Biden’s main hazard to passing legislation is the well-established history of a new president’s first midterm election being a disaster. The average since Ronald Reagan’s first midterm election is a House of Representatives loss of more than 40 seats. And, of course, Democrats only have a four-seat majority in the House and are tied in the Senate.

Democrats hope Biden’s performance will help make a difference in the November 2022 outcome. The data in the National Dashboard today:

  • Presidential approval is a net 12 points positive, with Biden now at 53 percent approval in RealClearPolitics ratings (similar rating at 538 – 53% to 41%). Biden has slid down a couple of points from his opening at 55 percent as Republican partisans have turned more negative.
  • The public’s view of the direction of the country has improved and is now at 44 percent, up from 39 percent last year, with still 49 percent believing its going in the wrong direction. Also, the Dow is up 11 percent in 2021 for a very positive first quarter.
  • The Democrats have 218 seats, the Republicans 212 and 5 are vacant. Hence, if 4 House seats shift, Kevin McCarthy becomes the Speaker. Both parties have extreme factions that are hard to govern, but Republicans have the advantage today.

Bull Market Continues

The extraordinary one-year bull market continued into the first quarter of 2021. The Dow was up 7.8 percent at the end of March, or more than 2300 points above the record high of 30606 at year-end. The 2009 11-year bull market ended abruptly on March 23, 2020 during the pandemic plunge (20% down). But, it was restored by August 18, 2020 when a 52 percent climb crossed the previous high. The five-month bear market was only a blip in the extraordinary climb in stock indexes for more than a decade. The brief bear market had little impact on the averages, which all ended 2020 higher (Dow 7.2%, Nasdaq 44%, S&P 16%).

Typically, the first year after the start of a new bull market is good for the Dow. Specifically this year, investors – both institutional and individual – perceive continued low interest rates (1.9% 10-year Treasury) and a major economic recovery from increasing vaccination rates and a second $1.9 trillion stimulus expenditure as ensuring continued stock valuations.

In early 2021, money rotated out of technology, which had a banner 2020, up 44 percent and into the Dow. It gained more in the first quarter than all of 2020. Energy prices also doubled from about $32 per barrel in March 2020 to $66 at the end of March 2021.

If there is a caution signal, it relates to the accelerated pace of the recovery and the pressure on prices (oil for example) and bond yields, which nearly doubled since years-end.

Read: Market Crosses 30000 in Year of Historic Disruption

Sports and International Politics – The Olympics in Tokyo

The 2020 Olympics and Paralympic games were postponed for the first time in history due to the coronavirus. But, Japan is committed to the games in the summer of 2021. It is a powerful reminder of the importance countries attach to hosting and participating in international sporting events. 

The Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research and the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies presented a conversation on value, importance and impact of the Olympics and international sports on foreign policy. Leading foreign policy experts from the Korbel School and from Doshisha University in Kyoto, Japan will provide analyses on what the games mean for countries, athletes and the world. The program will be moderated by Floyd Ciruli, director of the Crossley Center.

Tokyo, Japan | Getty Images

Professor Koji Murata – Professor of political science at Doshisha University in Kyoto, Japan

  • The 1940 Olympics in Tokyo were cancelled because of WWII. Later, Japan hosted the 1964 Summer Olympics. The Olympics totally changed Tokyo and it became a modern city.
  • Fifty-six percent of Japanese respondents are opposed to Tokyo’s Olympics and 36 percent said they should be cancelled. Only 9 percent think they should be held. If they’re cancelled, $45 billion will be lost, while $20 billion will be lost if held without any audience and $14 billion if they are grossly simplified.
  • Elections in Japan will be held this fall after the Olympics. If the Olympics are successful, national sentiment will be increased and Prime Minister Suga will be able to maintain his position and cabinet.
  • Two concerns remain: How many countries will attend, and how the Japanese government will organize the Olympics for Japanese society.

Professor Timothy Sisk – Professor of International and Comparative Politics at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver and Director of the Institute for Comparative and Regional Studies at the school

  • Issues in the news today regarding EU sanctions against China bring up the issue of participation with regard to Beijing’s winter Olympics in 2022.
  • Should athletes be held hostage to international politics? The ancient Greeks had a truce around the Olympic spirit. The International Olympic Committee Rule 50 states that sports and politics are separate.
  • If the voices of a Beijing boycott succeed, it puts the Olympics in jeopardy for the long-term.
  • The United Nations and international development organizations see sports as a lever. From the IOC perspective, they are building a tolerant society around the world — using “sport diplomacy” to bridge international rivalries.
  • The Tokyo Games are seen as a “coming out” from the pandemic. The Chinese had offered to vaccinate athletes, but it wanted to use a vaccine China prefers. Vaccines will not be mandatory, but uncertainty exists around select groups of athletes having access to vaccines. 
  • In the same way that we saw our political conventions go online successfully, televising the Olympics and moving to a remote approach through technology may provide a good viewing experience. 

Professor Sisk used an extensive PowerPoint on the many aspects of politics and sports, especially the Olympics, studied by academics, including international, diplomatic, social psychological, sociological and commercial.

Friday, April 16, 2021

Guiding Principles of the New China

China after 2012 and the ascension of Xi Jinping to his presidency is dramatically different than pre-2012 China. It is guided by a series of principles that are repeated by leadership in their domestic statements and documents, used by the foreign ministry and published by sanctioned media. The first principle, “a century of humiliation,” refers to the period from 1839 to 1949 when Western and foreign powers intervened and dominated the Chinese Empire. It is a nationalist argument for China to resist all foreign interference and maintain control of its territory. Many additional principles flow from it, such as “people of Asia must run affairs of Asia.” China interprets criticism and sanctions as interference in its sovereignty and core interests, which includes control of Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Guiding Principles

  • Century of humiliation
  • China’s rise is inevitable
  • U.S. is in irreversible decline
  • People of Asia must run affairs of Asia
  • West is trying to stop China’s rise
  • Battle of narratives, not values

Some, such as the first principle, have been around for decades, but others are new. Frequently stated in the Xi era are “China’s rise is inevitable,” accompanied by “the U.S. is in irreversible decline,” which has become a common view referenced among other criticisms of the West’s handling of the 2008 economic collapse and the U.S.’s 2020 pandemic response. Of course, any actions that the U.S. and the West in general are taking in Asia are described as attempts to stop China’s rise. 

Finally, with the “battle of narratives, not values,” China promotes the view that it believes in democracy, but it is their version and the American version is grossly flawed. Witness the events and surrounding claims of the Black Lives Matter movement in the summer of 2020 and the long-running November 2020 “stole the election” drama. 

Guided by these principles, the West can expect a very competitive environment during the Xi era.

Free and Open Indo-Pacific: The Quad

Can the Quad shift from a concept to reality?

President Joe Biden’s first multilateral meeting was to host the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) in its first meeting of heads of government since it was conceived more than a decade ago. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan described the summit of Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. as a “critical part of the architecture of the Indo-Pacific.”

The Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, with the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies, the Center for China-US Cooperation and the Consulate-General of Japan in Denver sponsored a panel of leading foreign policy experts from Japan and the U.S. on the potential for a joint strategy and unified actions to defend the rule of law and democratic values in the Indo-Pacific region.

The Quad: President Joe Biden (top left), Japanese Prime Minister
Yoshihide Suga, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Australian
Prime Minister Scott Morrison participate in the virtual Quad meeting,
March 12, 2021 | Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Professor Nobukatsu Kanehara – Senior advisor to the Asia Group, Tokyo; Assistant Chief Cabinet Secretary to Prime Minister Abe; Deputy Secretary-General of the National Security Secretariat.

  • In the late 1980s through the 1990s, one by one many Asian nations turned to democracy. First, the Philippines (1986), then the Republic of Korea (1987), then the maritime Asian nations. Taiwan’s leader succeeded in turning Taiwan into a true democracy. We have to expand this liberation to all of Asia.
  • The big challenge is China. When China joined the WTO (2001), Japan thought this was a new China and that it wouldn’t go back to Mao’s extremism. Unfortunately, China has stepped into Soviet shoes and is standing against the West.
  • Xi is like Mao: He wants to make a great legacy by conquering territories without the consent of the people. 
  • China will be larger than the U.S. in terms of economic size by 2030. If nations like India, Australia, Japan, the U.S. and others come together, China won’t become a global hegemon, but remain a regional hegemon. 
  • When we talk about the CPTPP, everyone joins in; when we talk about military affairs and strategies, not many raise their hands. 
  • Xi is a man of the sword. He’s a fighter and is determined to take back Taiwan. There’s no NATO here with nuclear weapons and tanks. We have to show that we’re in alliance and China isn’t in an advantageous position. We wish to expand Quad and have others join — Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Singapore — to 10 or even 20 countries.
  • Japan is now an aging nation and more of its national budget is going to Medicare and pensions. We can’t keep pace with China. Technology and well-crafted strategy are needed. We can’t face China by quantity; we have to do it by quality.

Professor Suisheng “Sam” Zhao – Professor on foreign policy at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies in Denver and director of the Center for China-US Cooperation

  • The Quad started in 2004 in response to the Indian Ocean tsunami. The countries met to coordinate a response. The Quad died after 2007, but Trump revived it. In 2019 the Quad began to have meetings at a ministerial level to talk about regional issues. Biden is interested in reviving the Quad as it begins to address China. With four democracies working together in the Indo-Pacific, is it more symbolic than substantive?
  • Polling shows clearly that democracy is declining and authoritarian governments are increasing. American democracy, in particular, is in trouble. Biden says “America is back,” but it’s back in a new time.
  • The pandemic is a landmark for authoritarianism. It’s a way for China to prove that its authoritarian system was more effective in dealing with crisis and that it controlled the spread and quickly recovered economically. China was the only major country in 2020 that had positive economic growth.
  • China has abandoned traditional diplomacy and foreign policy. Its own interest cannot be compromised and it’s willing to go to war over them. 
  • U.S. allies and the Quad (the liberal democracies), continue to share values, but they’re more interested in the damage to their national interests by China. Even on security issues, each has a different interest than the U.S.
  • The U.S. has 60-100 allies. China only has North Korea and Pakistan, and its most powerful ally, Russia. China has trouble with its neighbors.

Professor Floyd Ciruli – Professor of public opinion and foreign policy at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies and director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research

  • The Biden administration is focusing its full attention on Asia. Its first meetings were with Japan and leaders from Australia and India.
  • The initial meeting with China set the tone for competition with engagement on some issues, such as climate change, but disagreement on values, such as human rights, rule of law and democracy.
  • This is a very different China from 2012; it’s the Xi era. U.S. policy has also shifted beyond the optimistic viewpoint that “China will evolve,” the Obama administration’s initial pivot to Asia, and President Trump’s transactional trade-related strategy.
  • The U.S.’s China strategy of competitive engagement needs allies. Japan is in a prime position. The Quad is now activated and support from European allies is important. Votes in the UN will be valuable.
  • China and Russia have developed an alliance that is anti-U.S. and has reversed the shift that began with Nixon in 1971 (50-year swing).
  • China’s behavior toward Hong Kong and Taiwan shows a stepped-up and aggressive assertion of territorial claims.
  • China’s behavior related to COVID-19 has led to an unfavorable shift in U.S. and democratic countries’ opinions away from China and its leaders. China is seen as a threat among Americans.
  • A new era in U.S.-China relations will involve considerable competition. Values and ideals will be the main instruments of competition. The U.S. will use diplomacy, development aid and financing, and communication strategies. It will present a contrast between autocracy vs. liberal democracy.
  • Domestic policy is critical to foreign policy; we must “get our house in order” (Biden).

The panelists’ concluded that a new era has been launched in U.S.-China relations. It is now the primary focus of America’s foreign policy and is affecting domestic policy – from resolving the pandemic, to addressing infrastructure to strengthening democracy.

Xi Era

Delegates applauded Chinese President Xi Jinping as he
arrived for the opening session of China's National
People's Congress, March 2021 | Andy Wong/AP

Xi Jinping became president of China in 2013, launching what will be seen as a new era in the nation’s steady climb to first rank of nations and securing himself a near-cult status frequently compared to that of the founder of the People’s Republic of China, Mao Zedong.

Most of Xi’s work has been within his country. The West finally took notice as China began to assert power in Asia and beyond. But Xi and his allies have been working for years to prepare for this moment. Communist Party leadership was shaken by the rapid collapse of the USSR in 1991. One of his initial actions was ensuring the party’s discipline, loyalty and involvement in all aspects of the rapidly growing economy.

Strengthening the military was important in protecting national unity, securing Xi’s position and preparing for the projecting of power. His adoption of a corruption campaign was no doubt needed, given the amount of party and government corruption and the public’s view of its prevalence. But, it was also useful for removing rivals. Most recently in Hong Kong, a patriotism test is used to screen local legislative candidates. Xi and the party have dramatically increased censorship and are using new technology to surveil the internet and all manners of transactions and movement.

In 2018 and 2019 party meetings and national Congress, Xi made explicit his national dominance by eliminating the expectations of term limits and the public perception of collective leadership. Xi’s “thoughts” on socialism with Chinese characteristics were embedded into the constitution, making clear his undisputed leadership. Only Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping have had similar treatment of their political doctrines.

Receiving the most notice is China’s assertion of foreign policy and military power, not only off its coast, but as far as the Middle East, Africa and Latin America – in fact, globally. China is now and intends to continue to exercise world influence, especially to secure its economy, and because it saw a clear opportunity from a dearth of leadership in the U.S. and Britain in the Trump-Brexit period. After years of a philosophy of low-key accumulation of power (Deng 1990: “hide your strength, bide your time”), China under Xi is reaching for control of its core interests – Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Taiwan, and significant influence globally. But the effort has costs, and China is finally receiving pushback, with the U.S. in the forefront.

Monday, April 12, 2021

How Our European Allies View America

What do our European allies think of America today – and did the 2020 election change their views? For better or for worse? Some allies have openly worried whether they could trust a country that elected Trump in 2016, even if he left office. The photo above is from the turbulent G7 Summit in Canada in 2018.

A program hosted by the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research will present a first review of international public opinion before and after the 2020 election and discuss the implications for American foreign policy in the future.

The program is part of Crossley Center’s series of public opinion research and commentary on major issues of American domestic and foreign policy for the University of Denver community and public.


Join us on Zoom

April 21, 2021
11:00 am MT

Thursday, April 8, 2021

Video Now Available on Sports and International Politics – Olympics and Tokyo

Nations fight to host an Olympics and Japan’s intent on its delayed event being a success. Hear a presentation from Professor Koji Murata of Kyoto, Japan, and Professor Tim Sisk from the Korbel School discuss what the Olympic Games mean for countries, athletes and the world.

Tokyo, Japan | Getty Images

The March 23, 2021 program was supported by the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, the Josef Korbel School of International Studies and the Consulate-General of Japan in Denver.


See blog post on the presentation:
Tokyo Needs its Olympics

Japan Becomes Critical Ally

At the beginning of the Donald Trump presidency, Japanese Prime Minister Abe worked quickly and energetically to befriend him. He helped provide stability for Japan in a highly disruptive presidency. Even more importantly for Japan’s position in the Biden presidency, Abe became the advocate and architect for liberal internationalism in Asia. From helping construct a successor to the abandoned TPP, to describing a free and open Indo-Pacific as an aspiration, Abe and Japan were filling in for an absent America.

Of course, being only miles from China, Japan is a frontline country in the new region of maximum competition and possible conflict. It appreciates America’s deterrent. But for America, they are also an essential ally to build the coalition that will resist China’s new foreign policy expansion, including in the East China Sea where the two countries have competing claims.

America is anxious to see improvements in Japan’s relationship with South Korea and, of course, an increase in its defense capability, both legally and in resources.

Does Boebert Thrive or Just Survive?

In a political analysis in the Grand Junction Sentinel, veteran report Charles Ashby interviewed Dick Wadhams and me on the Lauren Boebert rise to prominence and the Democrats effort to defeat her by attacking her actions and statements nearly daily.

Rep. Lauren Boebert | McKenzie Lange/Daily Sentinel

Both Wadhams and I believe she is very good at gaining attention, using social media and maintaining her base in the party. I believe that, indeed, she has become an Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of her party, except Boebert’s district is much more closely balanced between the parties than Ocasio-Cortez’s urban Bronx district. My thought was that Boebert knew how to “own the Libs,” but pulled back from the edge of being too extreme.

And like Boebert, Ocasio-Cortez became a frequent guest on numerous cable news programs and talk shows that had some calling her the new face of the Democratic Party. Boebert is quickly becoming that for the Republican Party, said Floyd Ciruli, a University of Denver public opinion and foreign policy professor, who also is director of DU’s Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research.

“She is now a national media star, a national fundraising star, and she will have the full backing of most Republicans who both want to save the seat and those who are of the Trump ilk,” Ciruli said. “There may be some Republicans that are simply put off by her, particularly if she does something more rash than she’s done, but I don’t think there’s anything she’s done so far that is, well, let’s just say that if I put her on a rating with (U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor) Greene, she’s less radical.”

Also, neither of us believes Democrats just going negative is going to be sufficient to defeat Boebert. Many voters like politicians who basically take rhetorical positions, but don’t necessarily accomplish much. I referenced Senator Cory Gardner:

The concept of “bringing home the bacon” in judging a lawmaker’s worth is no longer defined by how many federal dollars they can divert to their home districts.

“Bringing home the bacon, that’s sort of our (political) theory, to us older guys,” Ciruli said. “Ask (former U.S. Sen.) Cory Gardner about bringing home the bacon. He brought home so much bacon, it was unbelievable. Today, the bacon is symbolic. It’s more like, are you out fighting for me? Did you take on (former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke) on guns? She’s scored a lot of points on all of that, and she’s good at it. She gets right up to the lights. She knows how to get on TV.”

Wednesday, April 7, 2021

Can China Be Deterred?

From the East China Sea to the South China Sea, including Hong Kong and Taiwan, the risk of conflict has increased in recent years. Can a cohesive alliance strategy hold off China’s mounting aggression on territorial disputes? Can deterrence prevent war? 

The Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, with the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies, and the Consulate-General of Japan in Denver, assembled a panel of experts on March 31 that discussed the threats and options for the U.S.-Japan alliance. The panel focused on the issues that have made Asia the U.S.’s primary foreign policy arena, Japan its critical ally, and China the competitor. The first trip abroad of the American Secretaries of State and Defense were to their counterparts in Japan. Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi said on March 16th that the “free and open international order is greatly challenged by attempts to change the status quo by force and progress of authoritarian system.” Secretary Blinken agreed: “China uses coercion and aggression to systemically erode autonomy in Hong Kong, undercut democracy in Taiwan, abuse human rights in Xinjiang and Tibet, and assert maritime claims in the South China Sea that violate international law.”

The panel was moderated by Floyd Ciruli, director of the Crossley Center. The panelists shared these key points:

Mr. Tsuneo “Nabe” Watanabe – Senior fellow of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation 

  • Japan is a frontline country against an aggressive China — similar to Germany’s role in the Cold War between Russia and the U.S.
  • Japan is now taking a stronger stance in promoting stability and peace in the Indo-Pacific. It’s good to know that U.S. leaders support a U.S.-Japan alliance.
  • Cooperation among the U.S., Japan, the Republic of Korea and other Indo-Pacific countries is critical for shared security and peace; South Korea and others remain cautious.
  • China is determined to challenge territorial disputes in the area and its Coast Guard has become a military-like force.
  • Many in Japan remain reluctant to arm itself, despite aggression by China to seize sovereign territories — we’re wary of entrapment and wary of abandonment.
  • If the U.S. started military engagement to defend Taiwan, Japan is a target of Chinese military action and some people are very worried about that. The majority in Japan clearly think Japan needs to work with the U.S. It is very clear that Japan would take sides with the U.S. over China – or even Russia – because of the strength of the U.S.
  • The misinformation in the world is really important. Some Japanese people – not the majority – still believe that Trump won and Biden cheated his way to victory. If a country really wanted to divide Japan and the U.S., it could use misinformation warfare. That could be possible in the case of Taiwan. We should be very careful about perceptions.

Ms. Dina Smeltz – Senior fellow on public opinion and foreign policy, Chicago Council on Global Affairs 

  • American opinion toward Japan over the past 40-some years remains positive and has risen in the last decade (to 65% favorable).
  • Japan’s attitude toward the U.S. was at a low point during the Trump Administration (from 68% favorable during the Obama years down to 24%; now at 41%)
  • Japanese people still consider the U.S. its most important ally (66% opposed to 9% for China)
  • Americans, although tired of endless war, would support use of force if North Korea attacked Japan (from 48% in 2015 to 64% in 2018). 
  • The U.S. is generally reluctant to engage in military force against China because of its perceived might — only 44 percent would support Japan in a conflict with China over disputed islands, and 40 percent would support Taiwan if invaded by China.
  • US views of China are the lowest (32% favorable) since 1978; it sees China as a rival, not a partner — and this is becoming a bipartisan sentiment.
  • Americans are now paying attention to issues associated with the Indo-Pacific.

Professor Lewis K. Griffith – Professor and director of the International Security and Homeland Security Programs at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies 

  • In 2005-2006, during the Bush administration, Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld intended to declare that China was America’s greatest threat; Secretary of State Rice vehemently argued the need to downplay the rivalry. 
  • After Trump singled out China as a foremost threat and Biden, from the opposing party, has maintained that stance, the posture is now policy.
  • With the bounds of the US/China relationship established, we must formulate a clear strategy
  • Japan has also signaled that China is perceived as a rival and Australia is leaning that direction; the political costs have gone down in openly confronting China.
  • Given where we are now, and with China not willing to retreat, we need to answer these questions: Can a deterrent strategy from a coalition of countries not include containment? Should defense of Taiwan be the West Berlin of the policy? How do we affectively signal to China the commitment of the U.S. and its partners?

Tuesday, April 6, 2021

Asia Top U.S. Foreign Policy Theater

Asia is now the U.S. primary foreign policy theater, Japan its critical ally and China the topic. To explore these changing circumstances, The Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, with the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies, the Center for China-US Cooperation and the Consulate-General of Japan in Denver, convened a four-panel program of experts in March that addressed foreign policy and public opinion amid the threats and opportunities China presents.

As director of the Crossley Center, I presented a scan of the foreign policy news from the Biden administration, recent polling and highlight comments of the March panel presentations. The following summarizes the presentation.

New Era in U.S.-China Relations

  • Asia is now the U.S.’s primary foreign policy theater, Japan its critical ally and China the topic
  • Very different China from 2012, it’s the Xi era
  • U.S. policy is beyond “China will evolve,” the pivot to Asia and transactional strategies
  • Allies wanted, Japan in prime position, Quad, Europe needed, votes in UN
  • Americans see China as threat, it lost world opinion – COVID-19
  • China and the U.S. are now in competitive engagement 
  • Values and ideals will be main instruments of competition, use diplomacy, development aid and financing, communication: autocracy vs. liberal democracy
  • Domestic policy is critical to foreign policy, “Get our house in order”

The conclusion is that a new era has been launched in U.S.-China relations. It is now the primary focus of America’s foreign policy and it is affecting domestic policy from resolving the pandemic, addressing infrastructure and strengthening democracy.

Monday, April 5, 2021

China Allies With Illiberal and Authoritarian Regimes

While the Biden administration is working to reconstitute America’s alliances discarded and disparaged by the Trump administration, China is accelerating its foreign policy strategy of creating alliances with those who share dislike of the West, especially its sanctions. China’s concern has escalated due to sanctions having been recently imposed over suppression of political rights in Hong Kong and the oppression of Uyghurs in Xinjiang.

The alliance with Russia has been developing since 2018, cemented with visits and agreements between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. Most recently, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, met with Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, in China to jointly protest sanctions, When asked about sanctions, Lavrov said “It’s [the West’s] form of democracy” not theirs. And Wang added his view of sanctions “will not be embraced by the international community,” a reference to their belief that many members of the UN share an anti-Western sentiment on this issue.

China partners with another U.S. sanction target with oil. Iranian foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, joined China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, in Tehran to sign a trade agreement to help Iran to evade U.S. sanctions.

Biden’s First Press Conference: “Prove Democracy Works”

At President Joe Biden’s March 25 first press conference of his administration, foreign policy was not a noteworthy topic. But, in a typical low-key remark, Biden said:

“I predict to you, your children or grandchildren are going to be doing their doctoral thesis on the issue of who succeeded: autocracy or democracy? Because that is what is at stake, not just with China.”

Which is rather existential for Joe Biden. But, the new administration has been very forceful about China’s repression in Uyghurs and Hong Kong, threats to Taiwan, and intellectual and cyber theft, among other concerns. Biden discussed China’s President Xi:

 “He [Xi] doesn’t have a democratic - with a small ‘d’ - bone in his body, but he’s a smart, smart guy.”

He also said Xi joins Russian President Vladimir Putin as believing “autocracy is the wave of the future” and democracy can’t function in a complex world.

Biden’s First Press Conference

President Biden holds his first press conference,
March 25, 2021 | Photo: Chip Somodevilla

Domestic policy, that is America’s ability to solve its main national problems, is now central to a successful foreign policy, and according to Biden, “prove democracy works.”

Friday, April 2, 2021

New Era in U.S.-China Relations

Secretary Tony Blinken’s first exchange with China’s Communist Party’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, became heated before they finished their opening remarks and the two pushed protocol aside as each attempted to make its case in full force. The four-minute photo op became a 1:15-minute debate over the flaws and ill-intent of each country. The media described the exchange as “testy,” “frothy” and “rocky.” At the conclusion of the exchange, it was clear a new era had begun for China and U.S. relations.

The Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, with the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies, the Center for China-US Cooperation and the Consulate-General of Japan in Denver convened a panel of experts on March 24 that addressed foreign policy and public opinion amid the threats and opportunities China presents.

Free and Open Indo-Pacific and China – Key Points

Professor Koji Murata – Professor of political science at Doshisha University in Kyoto, Japan

  • Former President Trump was relatively popular in Japan because of his tough stance on China and his solid relationship with Former Prime Minister Abe.
  • While President Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Suga’s relationship is undetermined, Biden is taking a tough stance on China and trying to strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance as well as promote multilateral alliances.
  • Biden and Suga have some background similarities that could help the relationship: both are in their 70s, are part of former presidents’ cabinets, are from humble backgrounds and are pragmatic politicians.
  • Forecasts show that China’s GDP will surpass that of the U.S. by 2028, and also that India’s population will surpass that of China’s by 2035.
  • Japan is on the frontline in the power struggle between the U.S. and China 

Professor Suisheng “Sam” Zhao – Professor of foreign policy at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies in Denver and director of the Center for China-US Cooperation

  • China doesn’t like the concept of a free and open Indo-Pacific because it suspects the motive is to contain its rise to power.
  • Southeast Asian countries are very cautious about China; the Philippines, Singapore, other small nations are reluctant to take sides.
  • Xi Jinping is engaging in a campaign to assert power – the dragon is roaring back to reclaim its rightful place in the world.
  • China’s Belt and Road Initiative has become the second-largest international development program — larger than the World Bank’s — in its attempt to strengthen ties with developing countries.
  • The Chinese-Russian partnership has developed beyond anyone’s expectations and the driving force is their concern about the U.S. meddling in their neighborhood.
  • China is influential in the “E-7” — emerging countries, including India, Iran, and Mexico — which in 2015 overtook the G7 GDP and, by 2035, is expected to double that of the G7.
  • Alongside China’s increased maritime power, it has become more assertive in its territorial disputes in the South and East China seas; its continued actions and rhetoric regarding taking back Taiwan have grown extremely dangerous.

Professor Floyd Ciruli – Professor of public opinion and foreign policy at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies and director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research

  • The Biden administration is focusing its full attention on Asia. Its first meetings were with Japan and leaders from Australia and India.
  • The initial meeting with China set the tone for competition with engagement on some issues, such as climate change, but disagreement on values, such as human rights, rule of law and democracy.
  • China and Russia have developed an alliance that is anti-U.S. and reversed the shift that began with Nixon in 1971 (50-year swing).
  • China’s behavior toward Hong Kong and Taiwan shows a stepped-up and aggressive assertion of territorial claims.
  • China’s behavior related to COVID-19 has led to an unfavorable shift in U.S. and democratic countries’ opinions away from China and its leaders. China is seen as a threat in the U.S.
  • A new era in U.S.-China relations will involve considerable competition; the primary U.S. platform will be ideals and values.