Monday, March 25, 2024

Battle Between Republicans: MAGA vs Establishment

Boebert, Greene and CheneyLeft - MAGA Republicans Boebert and Greene (Photo: Evelyn Hockstein/Pool via AP)
Right - Establshment Republican Cheney (Photo: Drew Angerer via Getty Images)

The June 25 primary will be one of Colorado’s most important political events of the year and an all-Republican story. It will be a dramatic test between the Republican establishment and the MAGA wing. There are three contested Republican congressional district primaries and a special election for Ken Bucks’ 4th CD remaining term (June 2024 to January 2025).

3rd CD Will the candidates be Adam Fritch-D and Jeff Hurd-R, the anticipated frontrunners, or can a MAGA candidate (Ron Hanks) upset the result?
4th CD Who is on the primary ballot? Boebert is on by petition. Who does the party select? Does she win? Who is Republican nominee on the special election ballot? The campaign has started. She is attacking Buck as irrelevant and other candidates as establishment “Ukraine first.” Monitoring the Republican vacancy committee will be a drama as will the primary deliberations of the central committee.
5th CD The Republican battle in the Lamborn seat gets more interesting daily with the MAGA forces divided between super MAGA party state Chair Dave Williams endorsed by former President Trump, and conservative podcast host Jeff Crank with Speaker Johnson’s backing.

A victory of Williams and Boebert will continue the Trump takeover of the Colorado party and likely accelerate its slide with more Republican deflectors to unaffiliated and a persisting absence from statewide office.

Greene & Boebert Espouse Christian Nationalism (April 7, 2023)

Wednesday, March 20, 2024

Don’t Write Boebert’s Obit


Lauren Boebert’s personal and political problems would finish a normal politician. But in spite of the failures of her business, her marriage, and having to switch districts to survive, Boebert remains a viable, even front running candidate in the June 25 Republican primary for Colorado’s 4th Congressional District.

In a widely reprinted interview Tal Axelrod (ABC News Digital 3-13-24-see Newsweek) asked, “Can you write her obituary?” My answer: “Her personal brand, it is terrible. Between not only the particular problem in the 4th [Congressional District], that is she’s a carpetbagger, but what she brings over with her is just terrible. Under no normal conditions would she be elected,” Ciruli said.

“She’s got the money, she’s got universal name identification, she has several other people running, so there’ll be a multi-candidate ballot. And she had initially Johnson’s support, and now she has Trump’s. And that’s a Trump district,” Ciruli said.

“Even though her personal brand is as low as you can go and damaged, she still would probably find a third of the vote,” he added. “And in a multi-candidate field, we assume a third of the vote is going to give her the primary.”

Lauren Boebert’s ‘Terrible’ Brand May Not Matter: Colorado Pollster - Newsweek 3-16-24

According to Floyd Ciruli, the congresswoman’s “terrible” brand may not matter in her primary race as she has been endorsed by Donald Trump.

Newsweek Article
ABC News Article

Monday, March 18, 2024

Colorado Election Scan on Super Tuesday

Colorado Congressional Districts, 118th CongressTwotwofourtysix, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

The following are observations from Colorado opinion leaders after a series of discussions during the week of the Super Tuesday primary election (March 7):

1) Boebert: She wins June 25 primary, Trump endorsement reinforces her advantage: money, multiple candidate field in strongly Trump leaning 4th CD. [Election now chaotic with Buck’s early retirement.]
2) Hurd: Fundraising and campaigning should win primary and the general for Hurd. Even with millions, Fritch has problem without Boebert. Trump wins district, moderate Republicans and MAGA go with Hurd. But lots of unaffiliated voters. Race should be a fight.
3) Fifth CD: Super denier Williams could win and become Colorado’s “Matt Gaetz.” Crank gets establishment support but Williams gets MAGA who have been winning local party contests. Could unaffiliated voters make a difference for Crank? [Crank just received Johnson endorsement. Williams, Trump.]
4) Caraveo She could be in trouble as new congressperson in year Biden does poorly but she has money and incumbency and large base of Hispanic voters. Challenger is inexperienced state legislator, but she is low key and border issue could help him.
5) Trump: Polling be damned. Many Colorado observers believe Trump will lose general election. Haley shows segment of Republicans don’t buy his return. She could get upwards of 40% of Colorado Super Tuesday votes. (She got 33%.)
6) Biden: Colorado Dems allowed a protest with “uncommitted” younger voters angry about Gaza, Biden’s age, and vulnerability (if he should step back), etc. (Uncommitted got 9%.) He wins Colorado but by half of his 2020 vote (14% in 2020).

Thursday, March 14, 2024

Porter’s Other Problems: Money, a Celebrity Republican, Trump and Low Turnout

Katie Porter Katie Porter (D-CA) March 5, 2024. Photo by Jeff Gritchen, Orange County Register/SCNG

Katie Porter’s problem was more than Adam Schiff’s campaign advertising. Her weak third place finish was foreshadowed, early in the race, with Adam Schiff’s superior fundraising and the entrance of a celebrity Republican last fall. But equally damaging was the emergence of Donald Trump and Joe Biden as two incredibly unpopular presidential nominees. Steve Garvey clearly was the Republican who could gather most of the Republican vote and turnout was depressed by the boring presidential contest dominated by unpopular candidates. Porter’s strategy depended on young voters turning out. They didn’t. Also, Schiff’s image as the Trump antagonist was greatly aided by the dominance of Trump since the Iowa and New Hampshire nominating events.

California Senate Race

Porter’s problems were:

  • Schiff fundraising puts him on TV, whereas Porter was mostly online, hoping for the youth vote.
  • Trump emerges as Republican nominee. Boring presidential race dampens turnout, especially among youth.
  • Garvey, a celebrity Republican, enters a weak field of Republicans.
  • Porter goes on the attack of candidates (Schiff) as tools of big corporations before any Schiff ads related to attacking Garvey were placed.
  • Schiff takes on Garvey as the preferred opponent, after seeing his weak performance in the first debate, raised Garvey’s visibility.

Schiff, Garvey Have Lead as Porter Stalls (February 26, 2024)

Wednesday, March 13, 2024

Metro Denver Sales Tax Flattens Out


The seven county Denver Metro sales tax revenue increases of recent years (2020 was COVID year) have flattened out.

Sales Tax Revenue Table

Population growth declined dramatically except for Douglas County over the last census period (2020 July to 2023 July) after more than a decade of steady increase. What other factors may be impacting regional sales tax revenue have not been reported yet? This may be a return to a more common average of 3 to 4 percent annual increase.

Sales Tax Slowdown (October 20, 2023)