Election workers prepare ballots at the Denver Elections Division in 2024. Photo: RJ Sangosti/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images
As of Monday, November 2, more than half (1.8 million) of Colorado expected 2.6 to 2.9 million midterm votes have been returned, divided like the state’s registration with 43% from unaffiliated voters, 34% from Democrats and 25% from Republicans. Unaffiliated voters tend to vote late.
Gallup’s latest poll of U.S. adults’ political identification shows they are firmly in the independent camp and at 45%, significantly ahead of both parties (up 5 points since 2016). In the last year, Democrats have added 3 points (30%) and Republican voters lost 2 points (25%).
Colorado voter registration mirrors the U.S. adults’ preferences. Independents labeled unaffiliated in Colorado are half of registered voters with the two parties representing smaller portions of the voter base. Republicans trailing Democrats (25%) with 22% of voters.
Gallup also found that in the last year Republicans have lost their lead with Democrats in favorability with Dems up six points and Republicans down five points (now 43% Dem. to 35% Rep.). Republicans during the last two years of the Trump Administration are seen as too extreme by 59% of U.S. adults versus Democrats at 43%.
Observations
- Republicans approach this midterm handicapped in its image largely due to the second term of the Trump administration. Democrats in their opposition have overcome some of their bad image from the Biden/Harris term.
- Colorado politics is becoming more unpredictable with each party shrinking and primaries where independents can participate. The Trump decade has been difficult for Colorado Republicans. Both parties are more extreme in their nomination process but Republicans more so.
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