The first round of the French elections with 11 candidates will
be held April 23. The run-off is May 7, 2017 if there is no majority candidate
in the first round. As of April 7, two weeks out, Marine Le Pen (24%) of the
right and Emmanuel Macron (24%) of the center-left are the frontrunners and
tied. The remaining 52 percent of the voters are scattered among the other nine
candidates and undecided. All eleven candidates just debated (April 4) for
three and a half hours, an endurance test.
|
Candidates in French presidential election take part in debate on April 4 | CNN |
Polling a run-off between the two evenly matched candidates
has Macron winning about 60 percent to 40 percent. The far right position has
increased 6 points since the last presidential election (2012, Le Pen 18%) to
nearly two-fifths of the electorate in a run-off, but it is still not in
position to take over the French government.
Le Pen is not the only candidate advancing an anti-EU
position, but she is the favorite of the Trump administration (Steve Bannon’s
position) and Russia (Marine Le Pen just visited Vladimir Putin). The anti-EU
nationalists are powerful, but not yet dominant in France.
Candidates
Le Pen (48 years old) has been head of the National Front
Party since 2011 and came in third in the 2012 presidential election with 18
percent of the vote behind the winners François Hollande (who won) and Nicolas
Sarkozy (the former president). She has attempted to reposition the party away
from its far right roots, but ride anti-refugee/immigrant sentiment.
Macron (39 years old) began his own party, En Marche!
(Forward! or On the Move!), in 2016. A former investment banker and member of
the Socialist Party who was in the current socialist government for two years
as the economic minister. He resigned in 2016 to run for president. He
represents much of the establishment from a center-left position, but claims to
be independent with new thinking.
Polling
There has been some shifting among the top five candidates
the last two weeks. Macron became the second-place candidate in late January
2017 and tied Le Pen about March 20. Le Pen has gained no ground since January
when she held 27 percent of the vote.
Macron took second place after the collapse of François Fillon
(The Republican Party – center-right) due to a scandal concerning his family on
government payroll. A battle for fourth place shifted position in late March
when Jean-Luc Mélenchon (Left Party and “Unsubmissive France”) moved into
fourth displacing Benoît Hamon (Socialist Party).
Run-off
In the second round of voting, polling indicated that Le Pen
would increase her position to about 40 percent, but lose to Macron, who would
win with 60 percent. Fillon would beat her by a similar amount, if somewhat
less (55% to 45%).
Hence, unless Mr. Trump’s fake news and rigged polls are at
work, the favored candidate of Vladimir Putin and Steve Bannon represents a
quarter to two-fifths of the French electorate and will lose the May run-off. There
is still a month of campaigning, but it appears France’s two-tier electoral
system is moving toward a business-oriented socialist as president.
See:
CNN:
French election debate: Macron marches on as Le Pen loses out
Politico:
5 takeaways from France’s chaotic presidential debate
The Buzz:
Outsiders take France – April 23