Colorado Has Two of Closest Congressional Races in Country – Will They Be Battlegrounds in 2024?

Lauren Boebert’s 546 vote thin survival in the western slope 3rd Congressional District was the closest in the county. But it was nearly equaled by fifth place Yadira Caraveo’s 1,632 vote victory in the new north Denver metro area 8th Congressional District.

Five Closest House Races of the 2022 Cycle

Although Colorado is now judged a “Blue State” by most observers, these two districts are likely to be top battlegrounds between the parties in 2024. The Republicans’ narrow House majority will motivate both parties to start early and target many of closest races from 2022. Along with the candidates’ and their supporters’ own efforts, they will again be subjected to the national swing from the 2024 presidential election.

Congratulations to Northern Water

The NISP project in the North Front Range has just received its critical permit from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in compliance with the National Environmental Policy Act. The project, which will cost $2 billion and take years to complete, will provide water to a host of cities and agricultural water districts in Larimer, Weld, Morgan, and Boulder counties.

The review by Colorado and federal environmental agencies took 20 years and added millions in additional cost to the project in scientific study and mitigation, including sending more water down the Poudre River through Fort Collins to maintain flows above what currently exist. It also adds major recreational opportunities and flatwater fishing.

Ciruli Associates provided public relations and public opinion research to the project managers to assist in the regulatory compliance.

After years of opposition and delay, some adversaries now threaten lawsuits, their success after these long environmental reviews has been limited. Most recently, they filed lawsuits to stop the Windy Gap project on the western slope and Gross Reservoir in Boulder County and failed in both.

Fortunately, the region’s water leadership maintained a steady and determined commitment to achieving the project’s approval.

READ MORE: https://www.northernwater.org/Home/NewsArticle/3d7f713d-6df9-4549-bb87-37629b707b66

Western Senate Seats Lost to Republicans

Republicans failed to pick up a single western senate seat after considerable fanfare. Nevada and Arizona, the two best targets, were lost due to the quality of candidates and campaigns and the collapse of the Red Wave.

The map shows that Professor Sabato in the Crystal Ball predicted a 51 to 49 Senate with Republicans holding Pennsylvania and picking up the Georgia seat. However Democrats won both.

Democrats have made significant progress in this century amoung the fastest growing Western states. Today there are no Republican senators in Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, or New Mexico. With the exception of Nevada, where a Republican beat a Democratic incumbent by one percent, there are no Republic governors in the same list of states. Governors Newsom in California and Polis in Colorado won landslide victories and are now considered potential presidential candidates.

Crossley Center Activities – Election 2022

The Crossley Center has been a focal point for election interpretation and public opinion analysis since its founding in 2014. Elections, as a critical experience for citizens in democracy, have served well as teaching tools and dialogue for events.

Once again, the Crossley Center was active during the 2022 election season with presentations on politics and polling for Colorado audiences. On election night, November 8, I analyzed the Democratic sweep of the state from the closing of Colorado’s throughout the night from the booth of KOA Radio. On Thursday, November 10, I moderated a panel of Colorado political and media experts at the Denver Press Club. Also during that week I presented analysis of the election results and impact on Colorado politics to Denver service clubs.

Western pollsters and academic experts convened in San Francisco in early December and I chaired a panel on the election results in the West, including a discussion of what happened to the Red Wave and the quality of polling in 2022. Additionally, through my blog, I posted numerous evaluations on what the election results mean for Colorado’s policy and politics. The potential impact on the 2024 presidential election is already under consideration. National pundits have begun listing Governor Jared Polis as a potential candidate.

Since its founding, the Crossley Center has been dedicated to public engagement and the advancement of public opinion research and analysis. Former dean and now Ambassador Christopher Hill joined in numerous presentations from the November 2016 presidential election through the 2020 election. Dean Fritz Meyer and Korbel School and University of Denver professors have participated in panels discussing U.S. and Colorado political and public policy. The Center remains committed to strengthening democracy and providing students and citizens with the tools to understand and achieve public policy goals.

Red Wave Crashes into Trump, Abortion, and Democracy - Becomes Ripple

The Red Wave which the history of midterms and many 2022 polls predicted became barely a ripple. What happened?

As the National Political Dashboard for November 8 displays, President Biden’s approval was deep in negative territory (-12%), the generic test was tilted toward Republicans (2.5%), inflation was at 8 percent and the markets down, all elements of a bad referendum election for the president’s party.

But the election shifted from a referendum to a choice between the Democrats and a Republican party that appeared extreme to critical groups of independent voters, millennials and Gen Z especially women.

From the June Dobbs abortion decision through the summer January 6 House hearings on the threat to democracy to former President Donald Trump’s high profile interventions in Republican primaries in favor of several controversial candidates the spotlight focused on the Republican party’s vulnerabilities. Also a sudden burst of legislative accomplishment, especially the Inflation Reduction Act provided Biden and Democrats a platform to run on.

Democrats gained a seat in the Senate, lost the House by only 9 seats, and have two more governors. An exceptionally successful midterm for Joe Biden’s party.

Congress Passes Bipartisan “Respect for Marriage Act”

Left: President Biden signed the Respect for Marriage Act, Credit: AFP - Getty Images Right: U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi signs "The Respect for Marriage Act", Credit: REUTERS

Congress passed the Respect for Marriage Act on December 8, 2022. Gay marriage had strong bipartisan support and has gained approval in the last decade from more than two-thirds of the American people.

The bill was introduced by Senator Dianne Feinstein and Representative Jerry Nadler. Helping strike a Senate compromise that moved the bill forward was Rob Portman (R- OH), Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Susan Collins (R-ME), Kysten Simena (D-AZ) and Thom Tillis (R-NC). It received 12 Republican Senate votes and 39 House Republican (passed 61 to 36 in Senate and 258 to 169 in House), demonstrating significant political clout for the right to marry.

The bill’s passage represents another Joe Biden victory. The marriage rights for gay Americans has been Biden’s goal for more than a decade. He endorsed gay marriage in May of 2012 as vice president and three days later, President Obama, a little miffed, was on board. It’s now a badge of honor.

Midterm Final Polling Averages and Results in the West

The West may be the region where the Red Wave was most needed by Republicans. Arizona and Nevada in particular had close races in which Republicans lost two possible senate pick-ups and a governor’s seat in presidential battleground state.

Polling identified the close and noncompetitive western races but there were also some anomalies. In Washington, for example, the Patty Murray race had polls that said it was close, but Murray won by 15 points. There were late polls conducted in several states that created brief news bubbles but were viewed by local experts as of questionable credibility.

The table below shows the RealClearPolitics average on October 3 and the final on November 8. In Arizona, the late RealClearPolitics’ average was off by 4 points in the senate race and reported the wrong direction for governor (Hobbs not Lake won). The Nevada senate average had the wrong candidate winning and polls did not record the size of the Colorado Democratic victory. In Oregon, the Republican lost to the Democrat.

D for Democrat, R for Republican, front runners lead on October 3 and November 4, RealClealPolitics. Ciruli Associates 2022

Factors that contributed to some of the news distortion as to existence of a Red Wave and changes in momentum and direction of several races were first a flood of late polls, mostly partisan, showing close races and second as the polls narrowed and the margins became smaller, tiny shifts were reported as significant when in fact they were mostly just statistical noise.

RELATED:
Back to the Fundamentals
Trump’s Team Make Inroads in Arizona and Nevada

Election Issues in Western States

The annual conference of the Pacific Chapter of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (PAPOR) was held in San Francisco December 1 and 2. The two days of panels presented new research on public opinion, methods, and trends.

On December 2, the “Election Issues in Western States” panel sifted through the results of the 2022 midterm and discussed the election dynamics; from what happened to the RED WAVE, to turnout and voter characteristics. The quality of 2022 polling was also reviewed. California’s top pollsters also examined the L.A. mayor’s race. Joining the panel was LA Times columnist Mark Barabak offering his observations.

• The West – a New Battleground, and Is Colorado a New California? Floyd Ciruli (University of Denver)
• California Voters and Their 2022 Ballot Choices. Mark Baldassare (PPIC)
• Tracking Voter Preferences in the 2022 Los Angeles Mayoral Election. Mark DiCamillo (Berkeley IGS Poll)
• Commenter: Mark Barabak (LA Times)

An Election of Surprises: November 8 Changed Colorado Politics – KOA

Doubt is gone. Colorado is sapphire blue. The red tide did not show up and Republicans must decide what’s next. On KOA’s morning news (11-9-22), Marty Lenz and Floyd Ciruli examine the results and political changes the day after.

Results continue to matriculate in, some races are still ‘too close to call’ here in Colorado, and around the country, on this day after the #Midterms2022. Political Analyst and Pollster Floyd Ciruli joined Marty Lenz on ‘Colorado’s Morning News.’

Unaffiliated Votes Control - KOA

On the Monday before the election, KOA Morning News anchor Marty Lenz and Floyd Ciruli (11-7-22) reviewed the early returns and pointed out unaffiliated voters were the largest block of voters and will decide the election.

More analysis and insight into today’s #MidTermElections2022 with Floyd Ciruli; he joined Marty Lenz on ‘Colorado’s Morning News.’

Colorado Republican Result Worse than Debacle in 2018

I asked in a November 2 blog post if Colorado Republicans would best the 45 percent high they won in statewide races in 2018--answer, No. Jared Polis won the governorship in 2018 by 10 points. This year, Polis won by 19 points.

Along with the state sweep, Republicans were beaten in the marquee Federal competitions. Senator Michael Bennet was reelected by 15 points and the new 8th Congressional district rated leaning Republican, was won by the Democrats in a close race with more than 1500 votes. The seemingly safe district of controversial Congressperson Lauren Boebert was held by only 500 votes.

RELATED: Will Colorado Republicans Win More Than 45% of the Vote?

Colorado Midterm Election Turnout

The turnout in the 2018 midterm was 76 percent of voters, considered very high for Colorado and nationally. More than 2,581,000 of 3,380,000 registered active voters returned ballots.

As of November 14, 2,557,000 voters turned in ballots that had been counted or less than the total returned in 2018. It equals 67 percent of the 3,825,000 registered voters in the system, a considerable falloff in turnout from 2018.

RELATED: Colorado Midterm Election Turnout Forecast

Back to the Fundamentals

After a month of leading in many polls, Democrats in early October saw significant erosion of their position. Polling results began to show a trend back toward Republican candidates and preference in the generic ballot test. A Democratic boost based on the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision was short lived. A shift of 4 points was measured in the Monmouth and Siena/New York Times polls toward the Republicans by mid-October. It was noticeable in a host of senate and governors’ races in competitive states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. Analysts attributed the shift to a variety of factors such as the salience of inflation in the media, an unpopular President, and importantly, the normal return to fundamentals of the midterm voters.

In the West, Republicans also began to improve their positions during October in Arizona, Nevada, Oregon and Washington, but late polls show mostly close races. Nevada is now a toss-up state, with Republicans in a slight lead but both the governor and senate race in the margin of error (2 points on November 4). In Arizona, the senate race has grown competitive with Mark Kelly having only a 1-point lead and Kari Lake, the Republican gubernatorial candidate, is now up 2 points. Her strengths may be affecting the senate race. Although Democrat Patty Murray may still win her senate race, the numbers have tightened, and in Oregon, Republican Christine Drazan is ahead in a three-party race in a Blue state.

READ: Trump’s Team Make Inroads in Arizona and Nevada

Unaffiliated Voter Returns Ahead of Partisans

As of Friday, November 4, four days out from the midterm election, a total of 1,099,847 ballots have been returned and unaffiliated voters are more than 4 points ahead of each of the partisan camps.

Unaffiliated voter registration began surging the last ten years during Colorado decade of rapid growth. It now is more than 700,000 votes ahead of each of the partisan parties. Registration is 46 percent of voters, a jump from 38 percent in 2018. Democrats are 28 percent, Republicans 25 percent.

Are Popular Governors Helping Their Ticket?

Both Democratic and Republican governors are ahead of the competition in battleground states where their partisan senate candidates are in difficult fights. Having a strong partisan ally at the top of the ticket has helped many partisans below. Governors tend to be the best known and most influential partisans in a state.

In Pennsylvania—John Fetterman is now only a point ahead, but the Democratic gubernatorial candidate—Josh Shapiro, is up 11. Mike DeWine, popular Republican Ohio Governor is helping Senate candidate J.D. Vance. On the Republican side Brian Kemp in Georgia is up 8 and his fellow partisan senate candidate Herschel Walker has inched ahead 1. Kati Lake in Arizona has moved ahead 2 and the Democrat Mark Kelly, has slipped back to 1 point. In Colorado, Jared Polis has been up more than 10 percent during the campaign and Michael Bennet is holding 5 points opposite a strong opponent. The expected massive victories of Gavin Newsom in California, Greg Abbot in Texas and Ron DeSantis are all helping their respective states partisan tickets.

KOA Live Election Night Coverage

The 2022 midterm election promises many close races and some surprises. 850 KOA will broadcast live coverage from 6 PM to 11 PM on election night, November 8.

In the booth will be iHeartMedia executive producer Ryan Schuiling managing field reporters and guest interviews. I will join him for political analysis of both the national trends and the Colorado returns, which should flow in quickly after 7:00 PM.

Some questions:

• Was the swing in the Congressional race a surprise? If divided government, what’s next in Washington?
• Did Colorado Republicans recover from the 2018 midterms? If not, what’s next for the party?
• Who won the new congressional district in Colorado? Was the Lauren Boebert race tight?
• Will wine be in more stores, psychedelics legalized?
• Is the 2024 presidential race Biden vs. Trump? If not, who’s in the field?

See the blog Ciruli Buzz for more background on the election.
https://fciruli.blogspot.com/

Colorado Midterm Election Turnout Forecast

The turnout in the 2018 midterm was 76 percent of voters, considered very high for Colorado and nationally. More than 2,580,000 of 3,380,000 registered active voters returned ballots.

If the turnout percentage is similar this year, Colorado can expect approximately 2,900,000 given the current active registration of 3,800,000.

But If there is less motivation in any of the major voter segments, i.e., younger, Latino, Trump Republicans etc., turnout will then lag and fall below the 2.9 million.

Anti-Trans Mailers to Hispanic Voters – KOA Interview

Marty Lenz in our October 28 KOA interview, asked about reported anti-trans advertising targeting Spanish-speaking Colorado voters.

I described it as part of the strategy to reduce Hispanic voter support for Democratic candidates. The new 8th Congressional district, which has 40 percent Hispanic voters, is the likely target. The race is considered one of the most competitive in the country.

The Denver Post and Colorado Sun reported it as a part of a national strategy that claims President Joe Biden and his “leftist allies are indoctrinating your children” with pro-trans information.

READ:
Spanish-speaking Colorado voters target of transphobic mailers

Political analyst Floyd Ciruli discusses the issues facing Colorado voters

LISTEN:
Will Colorado Republicans Get Support from the National Surge? KOA

Unaffiliated Gain Bulk of New Voters

Colorado just gained a new congressional seat reflecting a decade of rapid growth that spilled over into 2020 until the pandemic mostly stopped it.

There are more than 400,000 new voters since 2018, for a total of 3.8 million.

Since the last midterm election new voters are mostly registered unaffiliated – up 450,000. Parties saw modest change with people joining and quitting (Democrat up 17 and Republican down 56). Also, as of November 1, unaffiliated voters are the largest segment of returned ballots.

Will Colorado Republicans Win More Than 45% of the Vote?

Donald Trump’s been a loser in Colorado elections winning only 43 percent against Hillary Clinton in 2016 (-5%) and 42% in 2020 against Biden (-13%). But, he was also a disaster in the 2018 midterms when the Republican party was wiped out in statewide offices and also lost by 11 points a Congressional seat Republicans had held since its creation in 1983 (Jason Crow-D beats Mike Coffman-R).

Democrats won across the board in 2018 with no Republican including the incumbent Secretary of State Wayne Williams getting more than 45 percent of the vote. Jared Polis won the governorship by 10 points against Walker Stapleton (43%). Stapleton had Trump’s “complete and total endorsement.”

Will any of the 2022 Republicans who have mostly tried to shed their relationship with Trump win more than 45 percent?

Has the Boebert Race Gotten Close - Bloomberg

Bloomberg Government just published (10-24-22) an analysis suggesting the Lauren Boebert race has gotten close and she’s had to go on the attack to defend it.

I suggested to reporter Zack Cohen that if she loses it will be the story of the election in Colorado and that even running behind the 9 percent partisan advantage she has will show vulnerability. Her opponent, Adam Frisch, has run an aggressive campaign and raised more than $1.7 million.

A poll by Keating Research showed Frisch (10-2-22) only 2 percentage points behind Boebert. I pointed out that Keating is an excellent pollster but that the 3rd Congressional District is difficult to poll. While Colorado voted for Joe Biden by 13 percent, Donald Trump carried the 3rd Congressional District by 7 percent. National pollsters agree that missing pro-Trump voters is the major challenge. The rural, small towns and working class areas have many voters who do not cooperate with polls.

Democratic challenger Adam Frisch, left, and U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert, the Republican incumbent (AP file photos)

As I said to Bloomberg Government:

Following those controversies, polling by Frisch and his allies showed the contest narrowing. A survey by Colorado-based Keating Research for Frisch between Sept. 28-Oct. 2 of 500 likely voters found Boebert besting Frisch by only two points, 47- 45%, within the poll’s 4.4% margin of error, despite overrepresenting the number of Republicans in the district. The same pollster had found Boebert leading by a wider 49- 42% when it was in the field July 21-25. That survey had a 4.2% margin of error.

Floyd Ciruli, director of the University of Denver’s Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, vouched for Keating’s “good reputation” but said in an interview he was skeptical of the survey results given the difficulty of polling the district’s populist Republicans who eschew pollsters as much they distrust government or media.

I’m having a hard time seeing that this is going to be an upset,” Ciruli said. “If it is, then it is, as I say, mark it down as one of the really big ones in the country.”

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates Boebert’s seat as “safe Republican,” while Sabato’s Crystal Ball designates it as a slightly more competitive “likely Republican.”

READ:
Gun-Toting Boebert Escalates Attacks in Colorado Political Duel

A new poll indicates Lauren Boebert’s Democratic challenger has a shot.

Will Colorado Republicans Get Support from the National Surge? KOA

In a Friday conversation with KOA morning anchor Marty Lenz, we discussed Colorado’s top competitive races (10-28-22). I pointed out that since early October Republicans have gained ground around the country as concern about inflation replaced abortion as a top issue. Democrats were hopeful they could hold the House of Representatives or only lose a few seats. Today, many national prognosticators believe the Democrat loss could go to 30 or more seats (Trump lost 41 in 2018, Obama 63, 2010).

Although polling is sparse, the Colorado races in which Republicans have been behind could be tightening due to the national trends.

Listen to interview: KOA: Colorado's Morning News with Marty Lenz

Republicans’ Fortunes Improved in West

Arizona polling averages (RCP) remain within the margin of error but over the last few weeks have shifted toward Republican candidates. Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for Governor’s average doubled since October 16 (1%/10-16-22), and Mark Kelly, the Democratic frontrunner for Senate, has seen his average drop from 4 to 2 points since October 3.

D for Democrat, R for Republican, front runners lead on October 3 and 24/Real Clear Politics

In Nevada and Oregon, Republicans are ahead for governor (Lombardo 2% and Drazan 2%) and the Republican Senate candidate Adam Laxalt is 1 point up in Nevada. All five the races are extremely close but appear to be moving Republican in voter sentiment.

READ: https://fciruli.blogspot.com/2022/10/trumps-team-make-inroads-in-arizona-and.html

Lots of Late Polls, Questions on Sources and Methods

As Colorado balloting starts polls begin surfacing claiming candidates are doing better than the conventional wisdom claims. One just appeared to show Joe O’Dea in a tight Senate race with Michael Bennet and another, Adam Frisch, is beating Lauren Boebert by five points in the 3rd Congressional District.

The O’Dea poll is from the Senate Opportunity Fund (9-27-22) a PAC for Republican Senate candidates. A host of polls since the summer show Bennet ahead by at least 6 points. The current average from Real Clear Politics’ site polls is 8.

The Frisch poll was conducted by Center Street PAC (10-6-22) and polled 144 registered voters (some not in the district), showing a 45 to 40 percent advantage for Frisch. The last credible poll showed Boebert up 2 points (the closeness of which was a surprise).

It is possible the two polls are not outliers and captured trends, O’Dea and Frisch may even win. It will be major news if it happens. Late conducted polls are mostly fundraising devices and efforts to change the expectations of elites, especially in the media.

READ: POLL: Lauren Boebert Tied With Adam Frisch in Colorado-03 Among Registered Voters, But Frisch Struggles to Raise Awareness

SOF Polling (10/4/22) Memorandum
https://www.axios.com/2022/10/04/lauren-boebert-tied-democrat-midterm-poll

Denver Press Club Hosts Election Panel

Ballots are out, after November 8, who will control Congress? Will Colorado Republicans recover from their 2018 debacle? Did the mail back voting work? Is 2024 Biden vs. Trump? The Denver Press Club will host a post-election panel of Colorado political pundits to examine the election results, the impact and what’s next.

The panel:

• Patty Calhoun, Editor, Westward
• Dick Wadhams, Republican consultant, commentator, former state party chair
• Steve Welchert, Democrat consultant, commentator, directs numerous ballot and congressional campaigns
• Luigi Del Puerto, Editor, Colorado Politics
• Floyd Ciruli, Director, Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at DU

Political analyst Floyd Ciruli will moderate the panel at 7:00 PM on Thursday, November 10, at the Denver Press Club on 1330 Glenarm Place. The event is free for members and $10 for non-members.

RSVP HERE

Can Caruso Win the L.A. Mayor’s Race?

Congresswoman Karen Bass and billionaire businessman Rick Caruso to face off in the November general election. (Bass photo by John McCoy/AP; Caruso photo by Hans Gutknecht, Los Angeles Daily News/SCNG)

Since the June 7, 2022, primary it has been assumed Congressperson Karen Bass, who won by 7 points (43% to 36%) was the strong frontrunner over developer Rick Caruso for the November 8 election. In a Democratic majority city during a midterm election, she appeared to hold the advantage. Indeed, she has the near unanimous endorsements of the Democratic party and the municipal establishment from President Biden on down.

However, Caruso didn’t give up and has spent a total of $80 million on what is now a saturation advertising and direct voter contact campaign. Polls are mixed but it appears the race has closed with a new poll claiming Caruso is ahead by 3 points.

The latest poll of only a sample of 400 likely voters, could be an outlier but it may reflect a growing disenchantment with the entire City Hall establishment due to the explosive tape on redistricting city council districts. Along with crime and homelessness, Caruso’s main theme has been “an outsider is the solution to the persistent corruption in City Hall”. Polls mostly show a quarter of the electorate still undecided. Do they break for Bass or is this a tight race to the end?

Are the Democrats Over Playing Abortion?

With two weeks left in the mid-term election and almost a quarter of the vote already cast Colorado Democrats are hoping the abortion issue will be sufficient to support another cross-the-board victory like 2018. Unfortunately, all the national signs are that abortion has faded in public concern and inflation, which Democrats and especially President Biden get blamed for, is becoming dominant.

Valerie Richardson in a conservative Washington Times article quoted Dick Wadhams and me on the issue in reference to Republican Senate candidate Joe O’Dea.

Washington Times:

For Democrats, however, there are signs that the abortion issue, which shot to the forefront after the Supreme Court’s June 24 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson overturning Roe v. Wade, is running out of steam.

“The effect of the Dobbs decision has really slowed, and with these increasing reports of inflation and the economy and then I’ll throw in crime, especially here in Colorado, I think it definitely makes O’Dea competitive to win this thing,” said Mr. Wadhams.

Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli said that Democrats “have put everything, including these independent operations, into abortion.”

“Well, abortion is an issue that decays quicky. It turns over,” said Mr. Ciruli, director of the University of Denver’s Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research. “People get tired of it. And now the economy is the big nasty issue.”

As a result, he said, “there’s a sense, including in the O’Dea race, that the Democrats are going to have to revise their strategy for these last few weeks. They’re going to need to change themes or step it up, because that’s an advantage for him at this point.”

Joe O'Dea, Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

He compared the race to the 2014 Senate contest in which Democratic Sen. Mark Udall placed an enormous emphasis on women’s issues, earning the nickname 'Mark Uterus,' and ultimately lost to Republican Cory Gardner.

Mark Udall, that was the only issue he played, and by Oct. 1, the national tide that was helping Cory pulled forward, and he eked it out. Is that happening here?

"I don’t know," Mr. Ciruli said. "But that’s a Democratic concern."

READ: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/oct/20/joe-odea-gambles-big-colorados-independent-voters-/

Western Pollsters Gather – Analyze 2022 Midterm and the Politics of 2024

The annual conference of the Pacific Chapter of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (PAPOR) will meet in San Francisco December 1 and 2 to present new research on public opinion trends.

One of the popular panels titled “Election Issues in Western States” will sift through the results of the 2022 midterm and discuss the likely political changes, including a preview of 2024. The panel assembles California’s top pollsters and political analysts with colleagues from Western states.

Scheduled to attend are:

• Mark DiCamillo – Director of the Berkeley IGS Poll
• Mark Baldassare – President of the Public Policy Institute of California, conducts statewide polls
• Brianne Gilbert – Director of the Center for the Study of Los Angeles (StudyLA), senior lecturer at LMU
• Floyd Ciruli – Director of the Crossley Center of Public Opinion Research at University of Denver

Also invited to comment is Mark Barabak, columnist for the Los Angeles Times, who regularly covers western political trends and, of course, California.

I will moderate the panel and discuss the midterm election trends in Western States, especially Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon, and the polls and results in Colorado.

Politico: Can Colorado Be the Seat That Decides Senate Control?

Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., and Joe O'Dea, Republican candidate for U.S. Senate. (AP Photo)

In a long review of the Colorado senate race, Politico’s Natalie Allison concluded the race doesn’t appear as competitive as most expected. I agreed and said as of October 16 the race was still the Democrats’ to lose. The Republicans would need a very strong closing to make it a “sleeper state”:

“Floyd Ciruli, a longtime Colorado pollster who now directs the University of Denver’s polling program, said political observers in the state entered the election believing there was a chance the Senate seat could flip.

“Ciruli said there’s no question inflation is voters’ No. 1 concern, and that Biden isn’t particularly popular there. And he doesn’t doubt that polling this year – Colorado no exception – is missing the full extent of the populist vote. All the same, disenchantment with national Democrats doesn’t seem to be rushing in a red wave in Colorado,” he said.

“We could be surprised on the 8th, but at the moment where the polls are, there’s the sense that Independent voters just may not be available to the Republicans” this year in Colorado, Ciruli said.

READ: The sleeper state Republicans are targeting to win the Senate

Trump’s Team Make Inroads in Arizona and Nevada

The midterm elections in western states reflect the polarization of the nation’s politics with a 22-point Democratic win for governor in California but three possible pickups by former President Trump’s endorsed candidates for senate and governor in Nevada and governor in Arizona.

The Trump road show is a frequent visitor to western states but doesn’t stop in Colorado or cross the Colorado River into California. President Biden just visited both states.

RCP, D for Democrat, R for Republican, front runners lead on October 3 and October16.

Biden Comes to Colorado. Are the Races Over?

Photo courtesy of the Colorado Snowsports Museum and Hall of Fame.

With President Biden in Colorado to make Camp Hale a national monument, many political observers pointed out the President, with a 40 percent approval rating, is only going to states he can help and not hurt the candidate. Does that mean Colorado’s senate and governor’s race are now seen as mostly beyond a serious Republican threat?

(October 16 Real Clear Politics polling average: Bennet up 7%, Polis up 14%)

Kevin J. Beaty/Denverite
President Joe Biden speaks at Camp Hale after declaring the WWII training ground a national monument. Oct. 12, 2022.

Denver Press Club Hosts Election Panel

The Denver Press Club will host a post-election panel of Colorado political experts to examine the November 8 election results.

• Patty Calhoun, Editor, Westword
• Dick Wadhams, Republican consultant, commentator, former state party chair
• Steve Welchert, Democrat consultant, commentator, directs numerous ballot and congressional campaigns
• Luigi Del Puerto, Editor, Colorado Politics

Political analyst Floyd Ciruli will moderate the panel at 7:00 PM on Thursday, November 10, at the Denver Press Club on 1330 Glenarm Place. The event is free for members and $10 for non-members.

RSVP HERE

Newsom in 2024 Shadow Primary

California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks at the Clinton Global Initiative, Tuesday, Sept. 20, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Julia Nikhinson, File)

Both political parties have shadow primaries under way. A large Republican field is campaigning for the 2024 presidential nomination. They are visiting Iowa and New Hampshire, giving speeches at the Nixon and Reagan presidential libraries, and writing and promoting books. Their positions range from Donald Trump accolades wanting to see if he runs, to anti-Trumpers claiming to be running regardless of what he does.

Democrats, even with a seated President, also have a shadow primary under way. It's based on the assumption that Biden may not run for re-election. No one in the field is publicly breaking with him, but age, polls, and possibly a bad midterm election are weighting the side of one term.

Not surprisingly, Vice President Kamala Harris is the front-runner in a Morning Consult poll just released. She had 28 percent of the Democrats polled, with one-quarter of voters undecided. The results reflect a decline in Harris’s support since December 2021 of 5 points, down from 33 percent.

Among the nearly 50 percent of the Democrats in favor of other candidates, Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg was in second position with 13 percent.

Gavin Newsom, with 6 percent, joins the pack of liberals, including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (8%) and Elizabeth Warren (7%) who jockey for third place in the field. Newsom’s standing with Democratic voters doubled in the last year, no doubt reflecting his high-profile challenge to Republican governors Ron DeSantis and Greg Abbot. Democrats should expect to see more of him as the political focus shifts to 2024 after the November 8th midterms.

Will Ticket Splitters Save Colorado Republicans?

After some early optimism about Republican Joe O'Dea's election chances, new bipartisan polls show the race about 9 to 10 points in favor the incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet ( Keating, Magellan poll 46-36 Bennet - 10/2/22). Although it's still a month out and the economy is deteriorating, the race does not appear close. The governor's race is even worse with Heidi Ganahl polling an average of 13 points behind Jared Polis.

Hence, the question, will ticket splitters help Republicans in two other statewide races for Secretary of State and Treasurer? Although ticket splitting has declined both nationally and in Colorado in recent years, the state does have many unaffiliated voters and Republicans have nominated strong candidate for the positions. If they fail it will solidify Colorado's reputation as a blue state and suggest that the Republican Party's relationship with controversial views on abortion and Trump's big lie has damaged their reputation even in down ballot races.

Affordable Housing a Winner, Psychedelics a Loser

Colorado voters will pick their way through 11 ballot issues. With inflation and crime top issues, affordable housing may become the most and psychedelic drugs the least popular propositions.

The last decade in Colorado increased the urban, youth and independent (unaffiliated) vote. Polls show among these groups affordable housing, a sub-set of inflation, is a primary issue. It could benefit Proposition 123 that creates a fund to "reduce rents, purchase land for affordable housing developments," address homelessness, etc. Its passage would put the issue on the state-wide political map.

An initiative (Proposition 122) to decriminalize psychedelic drugs, will likely lose as a victim of the Fentanyl crime scare. Its defeat will signal a retreat from Colorado's drug decriminalization phase begun in 2012 with marijuana.

November Election Will Make a Difference for Ukraine

The U.S. has been the major funder, weapons supplier and international cheerleader for Ukraine and its independence. That may be ending soon. Polling shows that although Americans overall support Ukraine, a significant segment of the Republican party (46%) believes the U.S. should "end the conflict quickly, even if it allows Russia to keep territory" versus "support Ukraine in reclaiming territory even if it prolongs the conflict." Democrats prefer the supporting Ukraine option offered in a recent Gallup poll by 79%.

With the possibility that the Republican party takes control of the House and Senate, further financial support for Ukraine may become much more difficult.

Inflation, Abortion Top Issues

In a recent interview I said the Republican running in Colorado's redesigned 7th Congressional district needs to "go on the offensive" with crime and inflation if he was to win. A new Fox News poll agrees. It reports inflation (59%), future of democracy (50%), abortion policy (45%) and high crime rates (43%), the top issues with inflation and crime rates helping Republicans, and abortion and democracy helping Democrats.

Related: Combustible Issues, New Faces - Denver Post

Western Pollsters Gather to Examine 2022 Midterm and The Politics of 2024

The annual conference of the Pacific Chapter of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (PAPOR) will meet in San Francisco December 1 and 2 to sift through the results of the 2022 midterm and discuss the likely political changes, including a preview of 2024.

The panel assembles California's top pollsters and political analysts with colleagues from Western states. Scheduled to attend are:

• Mark DiCamillo – Director of the Berkeley IGS Poll
• Mark Baldassare – President of Public Policy Institute of California
• Floyd Ciruli – Director of the Crossley Center of Public Opinion Research

I will moderate the panel, providing an overview of the midterm political impact in Western states and the results in Colorado.

Denver Press Club Hosts Post Election Panel

Who Controls Congress? Did Republicans Recover In Colorado?

The Denver Press Club will host a post-election panel of Colorado political experts to examine the November 8 election results—surprises and the expected and how it affects 2024.

Political analyst Floyd Ciruli will moderate the panel at 6:30 PM on Thursday, November 10, at the Denver Press Club on 1330 Glenarm Place across from the DAC.

Denver Press Club photo (left) By Jeffrey Beall; Floyd Ciruli (right), Director of the Crossley Center of Public Opinion Research

New Poll Reality Check for Republicans

A new poll from Colorado's Fox news outlet shows Democrats still dominating the top races for senate and governor.

U.S. Senator Michael Bennet is 10 points ahead of GOP challenger Joe O'Dea, 46 percent to 36 percent with 14 percent undecided. Less surprising, Governor Jared Polis is 17 points ahead of Republican nominee Heidi Ganahl.

FOX NEWS – 31 POLL

This poll is especially damaging for O'Dea, who was hoping for polls showing a close post-Labor Day race to attract the money and attention he needs to pull off an upset. Bennet is not yet over 50 percent but he's winning the unaffiliated vote by 15 points.

The challenge is that both Republican candidates are still not well known by the voters and Democrats have a significant financial advantage in the races. The advertising, much of it negative, is just beginning.

Combustible Issues, New Faces - Denver Post

John Aguilar profiles the contest in the redrawn 7th Congressional district which presents familiar but combustible 2022 issues of inflation, abortion, crime, and election denial with two new candidates in an open seat. Although Washington-based pundits rate the district “lean” or “likely” Democratic, it is still Colorado’s second most competitive race.

I offered that the Republican candidate will have to be aggressive on issues of crime and inflation. Democrat Brittany Pettersen has at least two big advantages over Republican Erik Aadland – 13,000 more registered Democrats and nearly 3 times more money to spend as of the end of June.

Congressional District 7 Democratic candidate Brittany Pettersen, center, speaks to supporters during a campaign event at Holidaily Brewing Company on Sept. 11, 2022, in Golden. (Photo by Helen H. Richardson/The Denver Post)

Floyd Ciruli, director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver, said Aadland will have to hit his opponent hard on the issue of rising crime.

"She has to deal with it – it will be one of the issues that every Democrat will have to deal with," he said.

Erik Aadland, GOP contender for Colorado’s 7th Congressional District goes door to door meeting with potential voters on Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022, in Golden. (Photo by Chet Strange/Special to the Denver Post)

The other big opening for Aadland in the race, Ciruli said, is inflation.

The New York Times reported that prices at the grocery store, where consumers feel it most, have soared 13.5 percent in the last year – the sharpest spike since Jimmy Carter was in the White House.

“(Aadland) will need to go on the offense with his issues, especially inflation,” Ciruli said.

Read: https://www.denverpost.com/2022/09/18/brittany-pettersen-erik-aadland-7th-congressional-district-election-2022

Colorado Senate Race Barometer

The Colorado senate race is being closely followed by the national media for indications of a Republican tide that could sweep even an incumbent out of a state that has been supporting Democrats since 2016.

In July, Mark Barabak wrote a column for the L.A. Times, “How bad could November be for Democrats? Watch this Senate race and see.” (7-26-22). I said it about incumbent Democrat Michael Bennett.

"He’s not in danger yet,” said Floyd Ciruli, a Denver pollster who has spent decades surveying Colorado voters. “But [President] Biden is in terrible shape and if that becomes a major factor, a lot of candidates we assume would be safe could be in trouble.”

The Denver Post updated the senate race in a weekend story by Nick Coltrain (9-10-22). He reported that mixed signals from polls still don’t show a Republican win and that the national party has not put much money behind their candidate, Joe O’ Dea. (Since the story appeared, McConnell gave $500,000)

Read:
How bad could November be for Democrats? Watch this Senate race and see
How close is Colorado’s U.S. Senate race? Campaigns ready for a ‘dogfight’

Water Shortage Is a Top Public Concern

Three new public polls report that water supply and shortage is a top concern for the public. Although many parts of the country are dealing with drought and excessive heat, this summer the problem was especially acute in the western United States.

A recent YouGov poll shows that overall concern about water shortages among Americans is 44 percent, but concern rises to 63 percent among residents living in western states. The panel survey of 7,627 adults was conducted in August 2022.

New surveys in California indicate that concern about water shortage is even more intense among its residents. The latest Berkeley IGS poll reports that 71 percent of voters stated the current water shortage was “extremely serious.”

A Public Policy Institute of California poll conducted in July agreed. In it, more than two-thirds of Californians said that water supply issues were a “big problem” in their part of the state. Californians were also likely to say water supply and drought are currently the top environmental issues facing the state.

The Berkeley IGS survey was conducted online August 2022 with 9,264 registered voters. The Public Policy Institute of California poll was conducted July 8-15, 2022, with 1648 adult residents by Ipsos with its online KnowledgePanel.

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Berkeley IGS Poll – Seven in ten Californians describe the state’s water shortage as “extremely serious” https://escholarship.org/uc/item/49g699h5

PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and the Environment https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-the-environment-july-2022/