Tuesday, November 29, 2022

Colorado Republican Result Worse than Debacle in 2018

I asked in a November 2 blog post if Colorado Republicans would best the 45 percent high they won in statewide races in 2018--answer, No. Jared Polis won the governorship in 2018 by 10 points. This year, Polis won by 19 points.

Colorado Republican Result Worse than Debacle in 2018

Along with the state sweep, Republicans were beaten in the marquee Federal competitions. Senator Michael Bennet was reelected by 15 points and the new 8th Congressional district rated leaning Republican, was won by the Democrats in a close race with more than 1500 votes. The seemingly safe district of controversial Congressperson Lauren Boebert was held by only 500 votes.

RELATED: Will Colorado Republicans Win More Than 45% of the Vote?

Friday, November 18, 2022

Colorado Midterm Election Turnout

The turnout in the 2018 midterm was 76 percent of voters, considered very high for Colorado and nationally. More than 2,581,000 of 3,380,000 registered active voters returned ballots.

As of November 14, 2,557,000 voters turned in ballots that had been counted or less than the total returned in 2018. It equals 67 percent of the 3,825,000 registered voters in the system, a considerable falloff in turnout from 2018.

Colorado Midterm Election Turnout

RELATED: Colorado Midterm Election Turnout Forecast

Friday, November 4, 2022

Back to the Fundamentals

After a month of leading in many polls, Democrats in early October saw significant erosion of their position. Polling results began to show a trend back toward Republican candidates and preference in the generic ballot test. A Democratic boost based on the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision was short lived. A shift of 4 points was measured in the Monmouth and Siena/New York Times polls toward the Republicans by mid-October. It was noticeable in a host of senate and governors’ races in competitive states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. Analysts attributed the shift to a variety of factors such as the salience of inflation in the media, an unpopular President, and importantly, the normal return to fundamentals of the midterm voters.

Midterm Election Forerunners

In the West, Republicans also began to improve their positions during October in Arizona, Nevada, Oregon and Washington, but late polls show mostly close races. Nevada is now a toss-up state, with Republicans in a slight lead but both the governor and senate race in the margin of error (2 points on November 4). In Arizona, the senate race has grown competitive with Mark Kelly having only a 1-point lead and Kari Lake, the Republican gubernatorial candidate, is now up 2 points. Her strengths may be affecting the senate race. Although Democrat Patty Murray may still win her senate race, the numbers have tightened, and in Oregon, Republican Christine Drazan is ahead in a three-party race in a Blue state.

READ: Trump’s Team Make Inroads in Arizona and Nevada

Unaffiliated Voter Returns Ahead of Partisans

As of Friday, November 4, four days out from the midterm election, a total of 1,099,847 ballots have been returned and unaffiliated voters are more than 4 points ahead of each of the partisan camps.

Colorado Ballot Returns

Unaffiliated voter registration began surging the last ten years during Colorado decade of rapid growth. It now is more than 700,000 votes ahead of each of the partisan parties. Registration is 46 percent of voters, a jump from 38 percent in 2018. Democrats are 28 percent, Republicans 25 percent.

Are Popular Governors Helping Their Ticket?

Both Democratic and Republican governors are ahead of the competition in battleground states where their partisan senate candidates are in difficult fights. Having a strong partisan ally at the top of the ticket has helped many partisans below. Governors tend to be the best known and most influential partisans in a state.

In Pennsylvania—John Fetterman is now only a point ahead, but the Democratic gubernatorial candidate—Josh Shapiro, is up 11. Mike DeWine, popular Republican Ohio Governor is helping Senate candidate J.D. Vance. On the Republican side Brian Kemp in Georgia is up 8 and his fellow partisan senate candidate Herschel Walker has inched ahead 1. Kati Lake in Arizona has moved ahead 2 and the Democrat Mark Kelly, has slipped back to 1 point. In Colorado, Jared Polis has been up more than 10 percent during the campaign and Michael Bennet is holding 5 points opposite a strong opponent. The expected massive victories of Gavin Newsom in California, Greg Abbot in Texas and Ron DeSantis are all helping their respective states partisan tickets.

KOA Live Election Night Coverage

The 2022 midterm election promises many close races and some surprises. 850 KOA will broadcast live coverage from 6 PM to 11 PM on election night, November 8.

In the booth will be iHeartMedia executive producer Ryan Schuiling managing field reporters and guest interviews. I will join him for political analysis of both the national trends and the Colorado returns, which should flow in quickly after 7:00 PM.

Some questions:

  • Was the swing in the Congressional race a surprise? If divided government, what’s next in Washington?
  • Did Colorado Republicans recover from the 2018 midterms? If not, what’s next for the party?
  • Who won the new congressional district in Colorado? Was the Lauren Boebert race tight?
  • Will wine be in more stores, psychedelics legalized?
  • Is the 2024 presidential race Biden vs. Trump? If not, who’s in the field?

See the blog Ciruli Buzz for more background on the election.
https://fciruli.blogspot.com/

KOA

Thursday, November 3, 2022

Colorado Midterm Election Turnout Forecast

The turnout in the 2018 midterm was 76 percent of voters, considered very high for Colorado and nationally. More than 2,580,000 of 3,380,000 registered active voters returned ballots.

If the turnout percentage is similar this year, Colorado can expect approximately 2,900,000 given the current active registration of 3,800,000.

Colorado Midterm Voter Turnout

But If there is less motivation in any of the major voter segments, i.e., younger, Latino, Trump Republicans etc., turnout will then lag and fall below the 2.9 million.

Wednesday, November 2, 2022

Anti-Trans Mailers to Hispanic Voters – KOA Interview

Marty Lenz in our October 28 KOA interview, asked about reported anti-trans advertising targeting Spanish-speaking Colorado voters.

I described it as part of the strategy to reduce Hispanic voter support for Democratic candidates. The new 8th Congressional district, which has 40 percent Hispanic voters, is the likely target. The race is considered one of the most competitive in the country.

The Denver Post and Colorado Sun reported it as a part of a national strategy that claims President Joe Biden and his “leftist allies are indoctrinating your children” with pro-trans information.

READ:
Spanish-speaking Colorado voters target of transphobic mailers

Political analyst Floyd Ciruli discusses the issues facing Colorado voters

LISTEN:
Will Colorado Republicans Get Support from the National Surge? KOA

KOA

Unaffiliated Gain Bulk of New Voters

Colorado just gained a new congressional seat reflecting a decade of rapid growth that spilled over into 2020 until the pandemic mostly stopped it.

There are more than 400,000 new voters since 2018, for a total of 3.8 million.

Colorado Registration Changes Since 2018

Since the last midterm election new voters are mostly registered unaffiliated – up 450,000. Parties saw modest change with people joining and quitting (Democrat up 17 and Republican down 56). Also, as of November 1, unaffiliated voters are the largest segment of returned ballots.

Will Colorado Republicans Win More Than 45% of the Vote?

Donald Trump’s been a loser in Colorado elections winning only 43 percent against Hillary Clinton in 2016 (-5%) and 42% in 2020 against Biden (-13%). But, he was also a disaster in the 2018 midterms when the Republican party was wiped out in statewide offices and also lost by 11 points a Congressional seat Republicans had held since its creation in 1983 (Jason Crow-D beats Mike Coffman-R).

Democrats won across the board in 2018 with no Republican including the incumbent Secretary of State Wayne Williams getting more than 45 percent of the vote. Jared Polis won the governorship by 10 points against Walker Stapleton (43%). Stapleton had Trump’s “complete and total endorsement.”

Will any of the 2022 Republicans who have mostly tried to shed their relationship with Trump win more than 45 percent?

Colorado Elections, 2018

Tuesday, November 1, 2022

Has the Boebert Race Gotten Close - Bloomberg

Bloomberg Government just published (10-24-22) an analysis suggesting the Lauren Boebert race has gotten close and she’s had to go on the attack to defend it.

I suggested to reporter Zack Cohen that if she loses it will be the story of the election in Colorado and that even running behind the 9 percent partisan advantage she has will show vulnerability. Her opponent, Adam Frisch, has run an aggressive campaign and raised more than $1.7 million.

A poll by Keating Research showed Frisch (10-2-22) only 2 percentage points behind Boebert. I pointed out that Keating is an excellent pollster but that the 3rd Congressional District is difficult to poll. While Colorado voted for Joe Biden by 13 percent, Donald Trump carried the 3rd Congressional District by 7 percent. National pollsters agree that missing pro-Trump voters is the major challenge. The rural, small towns and working class areas have many voters who do not cooperate with polls.

Adam Frisch and Lauren Boebert Democratic challenger Adam Frisch, left, and U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert, the Republican incumbent (AP file photos)

As I said to Bloomberg Government:

Following those controversies, polling by Frisch and his allies showed the contest narrowing. A survey by Colorado-based Keating Research for Frisch between Sept. 28-Oct. 2 of 500 likely voters found Boebert besting Frisch by only two points, 47- 45%, within the poll’s 4.4% margin of error, despite overrepresenting the number of Republicans in the district. The same pollster had found Boebert leading by a wider 49- 42% when it was in the field July 21-25. That survey had a 4.2% margin of error.

Floyd Ciruli, director of the University of Denver’s Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, vouched for Keating’s “good reputation” but said in an interview he was skeptical of the survey results given the difficulty of polling the district’s populist Republicans who eschew pollsters as much they distrust government or media.

I’m having a hard time seeing that this is going to be an upset,” Ciruli said. “If it is, then it is, as I say, mark it down as one of the really big ones in the country.”

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates Boebert’s seat as “safe Republican,” while Sabato’s Crystal Ball designates it as a slightly more competitive “likely Republican.”

READ:
Gun-Toting Boebert Escalates Attacks in Colorado Political Duel

A new poll indicates Lauren Boebert’s Democratic challenger has a shot.

Will Colorado Republicans Get Support from the National Surge? KOA

In a Friday conversation with KOA morning anchor Marty Lenz, we discussed Colorado’s top competitive races (10-28-22). I pointed out that since early October Republicans have gained ground around the country as concern about inflation replaced abortion as a top issue. Democrats were hopeful they could hold the House of Representatives or only lose a few seats. Today, many national prognosticators believe the Democrat loss could go to 30 or more seats (Trump lost 41 in 2018, Obama 63, 2010).

Although polling is sparse, the Colorado races in which Republicans have been behind could be tightening due to the national trends.

Listen to interview: KOA: Colorado's Morning News with Marty Lenz

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