Democrats Go into Convention in Big Hole

Vice President Harris will begin her campaign with President Biden’s political position. Sabato's Crystal Ball projects Biden with 196 electoral votes and Trump with 312. CNN John King has Trump at 320. RealClearPolitics put it 325 Trump and 213 Biden.

By Sabato's Crystal Ball analysis, the toss-up states are battleground states: Minnesota (10), Virginia (13), Maine (2), New Hampshire (4) and Nebraska (1). According to Sabato leaning Republican today are: Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (18), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6).

Hypothetical Electoral College ratings via The Center for Politics

Democrats need to resolve their leadership crisis quickly and prepare for the August 19 convention in Chicago. Any benefit they gain from new candidates and convention drama will have a very large electoral hole to fill.

READ: If Biden Stays: A Glimpse into a Grim Electoral Future for Democrats

Biden Faces the End

US President Joe Biden boards Air Force One as he departs Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas, Nevada, on July 17, 2024. Photo: Kent Nishimura/AFP/Getty Images

Democratic Party leadership with supporting polls finally wore down President Biden’s resistance to stepping back and letting the Party designate a new nominee. Since the debate performance his fate has been set and his defense moving in a downward spiral.

Once Adam Schiff, the next California Senator and key ally of Speaker Emeritus Nancy Pelosi, said what most party leaders believe—the President has no credible path to win and will drag down Democrats in competitive House and Senate seats—the end was within sight.

Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average drawn from RealClear Politics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallup, and other credible polls.

The timing of the announcement was a surprise but needed to be speedy to both shape the narrative and prepare for a convention only 30 days away. Of course Biden will need to explain his deliberations and decision. But the data that he and his inner circle disputed or ignored since the June 27 debate became irrefutable and included losing the popular vote and the battlegrounds, a record low approval and just recently an AP poll showing a majority of Democrats wanted him to step down.

A likely Democratic Party position will be disappointment Biden won’t be able to lead it to victory, grateful for his 2020 win and four years of service, but pleased he let it go in an orderly fashion.

RELATED:
Post Debate Biden Drops - Loses Battleground States 7/16/24
Trump Confident, Dems Stressed 5/15/24
One Point Presidential Race 4/4/24
Biden Narrows Gap 2/27/24
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. Colorado Win Likely Cut in Half 2/14/24
Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is it Over? 1/3/24

Colorado to Add Abortion Rights to Constitution

Abortion rights supporters gathered on the state Capitol steps in Denver on Tuesday after a leaked draft opinion from the U.S. Supreme Court called for overturning Roe vs. Wade.
Photo: Hart Van Denburg/CPR News

Colorado joins 4 other states as of early July that have abortion rights measures on the ballot. Also, hosting measures are Florida, Maryland, Nevada, and South Dakota. Another five states are still in the ballot signature effort, including Arizona.

Since Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022, seven states have voted to defeat abortion bans or in favor of abortion rights in statewide measures, including red states such as Kansas, Kentucky, Montana and Ohio. This track record was the electoral backdrop that motivated Donald Trump to remove any language from the GOP platform that uses the federal government to ban abortion.

This year will be the first tests of abortion rights in presidential level turnout. Will conservative Republican turnout in red states help the anti-abortion position? Democrats, needless to say, hope for high Democratic and liberal turnout, to help their congressional and other candidates.

The Colorado constitutional amendment will add abortion rights protection to the constitution beyond existing statutory rights. It will also lift a ban on state payments for abortions, passed in 1984. Although it will need 55 percent, Colorado’s track record on protection abortion rights is overwhelming, having defeated bans in 2000, 2014, and 2020. Advocates also have $4 million for a campaign.

SEE: Where Abortion Rights Will (or Could) Be on the Ballot
Louis Jacobson, The Center for Politics, July 9,2024

Post Debate Biden Drops - Loses Battleground States

President Joe Biden speaks at a news conference following the NATO Summit in Washington, July 11, 2024. Photo: Susan Walsh/AP

President Biden’s poor debate performance has cost his campaign 3 points in the last two weeks. He was tied with Donald Trump in mid-June. On July 11, before this weekend’s assassination attempt Biden was facing an historic loss of the popular vote that Democrats haven’t faced since W. Bush beat John Kerry in 2004.

All six of the battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin now lean toward Trump, several by more than 4 points (Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia).

Biden must have at least 3, most likely Wisconsin (-2), Michigan (-1), and Pennsylvania (-4).

Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average drawn from RealClear Politics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallop, and other credible polls.

Although Biden and his allies have struggled to address the age issue, the Democrats fear of a triple sweep has kept pressure on Biden to surrender the nomination. The convention is now scheduled to start August 19 with the nomination vote on Wednesday.

The primary purpose of America’s political parties is to compete for political office. Facing a potential massive loss, especially to Trump and his MAGA Republican Party, has panicked Democratic elected officials and made it difficult for Biden to unite the party and shift attention to Trump. Especially difficult is that 75 or 85 percent of voters in two post-debate polls (NY Times/WSJ) believe he is too old for the presidency, including more than half of Democrats.

RELATED:
Trump Confident, Dems Stressed 5/15/24
One Point Presidential Race 4/4/24
Biden Narrows Gap 2/27/24
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. Colorado Win Likely Cut in Half 2/14/24
Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is it Over? 1/3/24

CU Denver School of Public Affairs Hosts Fall 2024 Election Program

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

Series of First Friday Panels Begins September 6

An intense 2024 campaign enters its final two months. Americans believe the future of democracy is at stake. Floyd Ciruli, pollster and Senior Fellow at the CU Denver School of Public Affairs will join a series of panels and discussions to highlight the tumultuous election environment.

The program starts September 6 with a First Friday Breakfast panel reviewing the status of the election nationally, especially as it relates to changes in control of the U.S. Senate and House. The panel will also examine Colorado’s key Congressional and legislative races, and the fate of its most contentious ballot propositions. Ciruli will moderate the panel that includes Colorado political experts.

Additional events during October will present panels on ballot propositions in the November election, the Hispanic vote and challenges for election administrators. On November 8, a post-election session will review and analyze what happened and what it will mean for future policy, especially for Colorado.

KOA Debate Interview

2024 Presidential Debate | Photo Al Jazeera

In a Friday morning post-presidential debate interview with KOA’s Marty and Jeana the topic was President Joe Biden’s poor debate performance and what the Democrats might do about it.

• The headlines since the debate ended have been devastating –
  • “halting performance”
  • “Democrats in panic”
  • “Biden’s poor showing”
  • “Biden “babbling and hoarse”
  • “Biden’s rough night”
    
    
  Those weren’t FOX News reports.
  
  
• In his biggest forum since the State of the Union, Biden needed to deal with the age issue (Gallup 59% voters believe he’s too old) and he failed spectacularly (51 million watched). Former President Trump just needed to stay in his lane and not repeat the poor performance in the first debate 4 years ago. He did it, even if filled with a torrent of false statements.
  
  
• The weekend will begin days of commentary and in the next two weeks the Biden campaign already struggling in the polls, especially in battleground states, could see a dip of several points.
  
  
• It is very difficult to change candidates. Biden has nearly 4,000 committed delegates, and even if he dropped out, an open convention would be chaotic and hold huge risks for the party.
  
  
• It is a challenge but as of today Democrats will try to minimize the damage and push ahead (“Anyone can have a bad night,” Governor Newsom). They may shake up the staff and assemble party leaders in show of continued support and unity. But there will be considerable drama as to Biden’s fate from now to the Chicago convention, August 19.
  
  

Ciruli Blog:
Questions From Belgium Journalist Watching Our Presidential Debate for First Time Oct 12, 2012
Biden Brings Relief and New Energy to the Democrats Oct 15, 2012
Second Debate – Spin Two Oct 18, 2012

Colorado Republican Establishment Is Back

Lauren Boebert | Photo Hart Van Denburg/CPR News

The victory of Republicans Hurd, Crank and Evans reflects an escape from the hold the Trump/MAGA forces have had over the party since 2020. Voices other than MAGA election deniers Dave Williams, Ron Hanks, Tina Peters, et al. are now being heard.

Although Boebert survived, she is a diminished force having had to abandon the voters in the 3rd CD and move to the 4th.

The vote in the 3rd and 5th Districts provides indicators of the challenges of the Republican winners. Hanks received 28 percent, which is one measure of the residual Boebert vote that Hurd must appeal to in the General Election. Boebert was predicted to win as the field filled up and she weathered the opening barrage of criticism. She received 44 percent of the vote with the remaining votes spread about the 5 opponents. She started with a host of advantages:

• Near universal name identification
• 10 to 1 advantage in money over any opponent
• Identity with MAGA base
• Endorsement of former President Trump and Speaker Johnson
• 5 opponents

Ciruli Blog:
Don’t Write Boebert’s Obit March 20, 2024
Battle Between Republicans: MAGA vs Establishment March 25, 2024

Primary Election on 630 KHOW Radio

Jeff Crank | Photo: Jerilee Bennett, The Gazette

The drama of Colorado 2024 primary was not due to surprise but the definitive fashion the state electorate said no to extreme elements of both parties.

In two 630 KHOW interviews with Ryan Schuiling, the Congressional races were reviewed before and after results.

• Most observers predicted Jeff Hurd and Jeff Crank would win their respective primaries. But the crushing win in the 5th CD against GOP State Party Chair Dave Williams was a formidable blow against the MAGA wing of the party. He endorsed candidates opposing Hurd and Crank (against party norms) and they joined ten state legislative candidates he endorsed that also lost.
• Lauren Boebert won the six-person primary with 43 percent of the state and will no doubt go on to win the general election. Her success roughly tracks Trump’s and will be dependent upon his.
• The moderate and more establishment wings of both parties benefited but the GOP especially now has new leaders who may restore its competitiveness after the massive losses in 2018.

RELATED:
Colorado Primary to See New Republican Team: Traditional vs. MAGA

Denver Health Takes Sales Tax Near Ten Percent

Denver Health Medical Center | Photo by Katie Wood/Denver Post

Sales tax in Denver is rapidly approaching 10 percent of the sale price. It currently stands at 8.81 percent, reflecting state, special districts, and city taxes.

Several new sales taxes are being proposed with the largest from Denver Health of .34 percent, which would raise Denver to 9.15, making it the highest sales tax city in the Denver metro area. The new rate would jump to 9.61 if all new taxes were approved.

The Metro area sales tax collections have been flat for a year and are now declining, reflecting a falloff in population growth and economic activity. Recent polls show when the public is asked, affordability is a major complaint about living in Denver, along with inflation. Affordability is, in fact, one of the main reasons people cite for moving out of Denver. Taxes affect the affordability of an area and sales taxes have a negative impact on local consumers and can be especially burdensome on the low-income population.

Denver has been rapidly raising its sales tax rate the last five years from 3.6 percent in 2018 to the 4.81 today, with significant increase for climate programs, homelessness, college scholarships, food security, mental health and parks.

Will Denver voters finally say no to new taxes?

RELATED
Denver Metro Sales Tax Revenue Declines June 24, 2024

Denver Metro Sales Tax Revenue Declines

The Denver metro area sales tax revenue stopped increasing in 2023 after several years of robust growth. As of the first four months of this year, metro sales tax revenue has declined half a percent.

State government will be affected since the seven county Denver metro area represents more than half of Colorado’s population and economic activity.

RELATED:
Metro Denver Sales Tax Flattens Out March 13, 2024
Denver Metro Area Tax Revenue Slows Sharply October 2, 2023
Midpoint in the Year Sales Tax Revenue Roars In September 22, 2021

Presidential Race Dead Heat Pre-Debate

CNN to host 2024 Election Presidential Debate June 27

President Biden has closed the popular vote race with Donald Trump but is still behind when third party candidates are included and in battleground states as they enter the June 27 debate.

Third-party candidates now get 10 percent, down a couple of points since January and a likely trajectory as the race gets closer to November. RFK Jr. remains the pack leader with 7 points. Biden is behind in four battleground states and even in Michigan and Wisconsin. He’s close in Pennsylvania (down 2 points).

Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average drawn from RealClear Politics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallop, and other credible polls.

If the election was today, Biden would most likely lose. The current polling reflects about a 4 to 5 point decline in Biden’s position compared to November 2020 when he won the national vote by 4 points (51% to 47%) and all six of the battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

RELATED:
Trump Confident, Dems Stressed 5/15/24
One Point Presidential Race 4/4/24
Biden Narrows Gap 2/27/24
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. Colorado Win Likely Cut in Half 2/14/24
Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is It Over? 1/3/24

Not Expecting Much Change in Colorado State Legislature

Colorado State Capitol | Photo: Library of Congress Carol Highsmith

Democrats are safe in both the House (super majority) and Senate (near super majority). Very little or no partisan movement is expected. But there will be a fight to gain or stop super majority. In Senate, Republicans must hold their 12 seats to stop Democrats from super majority (23-12). They have to gain 3 seats in House to end Democrats super majority (46-19), not likely.

Context

• Republican state chair running for Congress. Poor job of state legislative recruiting, not much fundraising.
• Democrats have primary won with far left House members but safe seats.
• Action this year is in Congressional races with three Republican open seats (primaries between MAGA and Establishment).
• Many ballot propositions reflecting tax and cultural battles left over from legislature.

READ: The Center for Politics - 2024’s Battleground State Legislative Chambers

Colorado Primary to See New Republican Team: Traditional vs. MAGA

Twotwofourtysix, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

The June 25 Colorado primary will settle the contest between Colorado’s traditional and historically successful Republican Party and the new Donald Trump-inspired MAGA wing. Early predictions now confirmed by polling and funding were that the traditional wing would have their strongest odds in the Western Slope 3rd district with Jeff Hurd and the Colorado Springs 5th district with Jeff Crank. A recent poll also supported the expectation Lauren Boebert will survive her seat switch and gain a win in the six-person 4th CD primary.

The three questions raised by Colorado’s surprising three open Republican congressional seats at the start of the year were:

1. Who would dominate the Republican primaries – conservative candidates from the mainstream Republican Party or MAGA? It appears two traditional, one MAGA.
   • 3rd Jeff Hurd (Ron Hanks)
   • 4th Lauren Boebert (?)
   • 5th Jeff Crank (Dave Williams)
2. Would Boebert survive shift from 3rd CD (she was losing after 2 terms) to 4th CD. She’s ahead of field.
3. Can a Democrat win any of the races? Uphill, but Hurd most vulnerable in less Republican 3rd CD against Democrat Adam Frisch who has millions of anti-Boebert dollars to spend.

RELATED:
Colorado Surprise: Congressional Battleground 1/30/24
Don’t Write Boebert’s Obit 3/20/24
Battle Between Republicans: MAGA vs Establishment 3/25/24
Three Open Colorado Seats – Could the Democrats Win One? 4/10/24

Americans Divided on Banning Sleeping in Public Spaces

Denver Mayor Mike Johnston visits homeless encampment
Photo: Kathryn Scott, The Denver Post

Although the public, especially in urban areas lists homelessness as one of their top concerns, they are divided on one of the main strategies cities use to manage the problem – namely a ban of sleeping in public space. A new Marquette Law School Poll on recent Supreme Court oral arguments found that Americans were divided 47 percent in support of a city being able to ban sleeping, in public space, and 36 percent opposed.

As expected, partisans disagreed. Only about a third of Democrats (36%) supported a ban whereas 63 percent of Republicans were in support.

But the biggest gap in opinions was seen between under and over 30 years old. More than half (58%) of Generation Z opposed a sleeping ban but among older Americans (60 years old plus), 59 percent support a ban and only a quarter (23%) oppose.

The challenge for urban Democratic leaders is the public’s demand to address homeless and the street population but the resistance of young Democratic voters to use a public sleeping space ban as a tool.

Western Leaders Face Unhappy Public

Argentina's President Javier Milei speaks during a rally organised by the Spanish far-right Vox party ahead of the European elections, with various far-right leaders, in Madrid, Spain, May 19, 2024. REUTERS/Ana Beltran

With rare exceptions the public in democratic countries are unhappy with their top elected leaders. The few leaders with more approval than disapproval in a new Morning Consult poll in nominally democratic countries are populists in India, Narendra Modi, Argentina, Javier Milei, and Mexico, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

Milei, the Argentine anarcho-capitalist who most recently insulted the Prime Minister of Spain and his wife, continues to command public favor by providing entertainment and nationalism in a crisis-ridden country.

As embattled as President Biden is, he has the highest approval among US allies and Western European democracies. At 39 percent, he exceeds Scholz in Germany (26%), Sunek in the UK (25%), Macron in France (23%) and Kishida in Japan (15%). Centrist leaders are facing dour electorates and populist opponents.

Third Parties Could Have Big Impact in 2024

Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. kicks off petition drive to get on Colorado ballot at Aurora rally | Photo: Ernest Luning/Colorado Politics

National polls and history show that when the major parties nominate two unpopular presidential candidates, third parties become more attractive and can make a difference in the electoral vote. In 2016, third parties received nearly 6 million votes. In the three most closely contested states, the liberal third party candidate received more votes than Clinton lost by. Third parties were held to 2 percent nationwide in 2020 and 3 percent in Colorado (see table below). But they have 14 percent of the current national polling average (RealClearPolitics). RJK Jr. leads with 10 percent.

Third party candidates represent a serious challenge to Biden, especially in battleground states such as Arizona and North Carolina. The first significant challenge a third party must overcome is ballot access. The Green Party has access to most states’ ballots.

Although RFK Jr. may get on the Colorado ballot, the state is not likely have a serious presidential contest. But, with a 48 percent unaffiliated voter registration, a record number of minor parties (8) attracting a fragmented electorate and a history of voter independence demonstrated in 1992 when Ross Perot received 23 percent of the vote, a third party candidate could expect considerable support. In the recent Super Tuesday primary, the two major party frontrunners lost a total of two-fifths of their fellow partisans (33% for Haley and 8% uncommitted).

Waiting for the Federal Reserve

Markets shed points off their highs in late March. The DOW closed at 39,282, or up 5.6 percent on March 28, then sank more than 1,400 points through April but recovered by mid-May to nearly touch 40,000 at 39,908, or up 5.9 percent.

Fed Chair Powell and his board are not cutting interest rates but after the May meeting lower price pressure and a strong sense of a soft landing, the market was greatly relieved. Three rate cuts were expected beginning in June. Now, the market will be pleased with one before year end. However, market watchers are still optimistic and predict an up-DOW/year of 9 percent. Notice the tech heavy NAZ and broad S&P index are up nearly two times the DOW for the year.

The positive viewpoint reflected the amazing resilience of an economy that has faced a surge of post-pandemic inflation, aggressive rate-hiking and geopolitical turmoil from two wars and two hostile great powers. In spite of this, the GDP is up, consumer spending is strong, and unemployment is down.

Some observers believe US stocks are overvalued, especially technology and the US is heading for a major slowdown with a market dip. But Jamie Dimon observes investment money from around the world believes the American market remains the safest, and its top companies are worth the pricey valuations.

RELATED:
Bull Market Continues to Run (February 29, 2024)

Nederland Repeals Rights of Nature Resolution as Harmful to Water Security

Nederland diverts drinking water from Middle Boulder Creek. (Town of Nederland photo)

Gary Wockner (formerly Save the Poudre River, Save the Colorado, and now Save the World’s Rivers) is not happy. One of his first “rights of nature” towns, Nederland, with “guardians” appointed, has repealed the resolution because it is being used in ways that could jeopardize the town’s water security. The repeal is a major setback as Nederland was a high profile victory for the movement and the repeal is receiving major coverage in environmental press.

Michael Booth’s report of the controversy provides considerable evidence of the deceptive arguments made to local municipalities by advocates when campaigning for the resolutions. (Colorado Sun May 7, 2024, also Inside Climate News 5-7-24-Kate Surma and NPR Northern Colorado 5-9-24, Michael Lyle)

The so-called guardians said they just provide watershed information and are not policymakers. But Wockner made clear that he “fights dams”, and will do so regardless of the Town of Nederland’s interests or policy preferences. Mayor Giblin was an articulate advocate for the town’s interest in protecting its water rights and option for water storage. He pointed out that Wockner and Save the World’s Rivers filed legal objections against numerous projects, saying “I have major concern with an outside organization fighting to dictate conditions to local communities in our efforts to secure our water rights.”

Several other Colorado towns and cities have adopted or have been solicited to adopt Right of Nature resolutions. They should consider the Nederland experience.

READ:

• Nederland repeals “rights of nature” for watersheds to better pursue new dam (Colorado Sun)


• A Town Board in Colorado Repeals Rights of Nature Resolutions (Inside Climate News)


• Nederland officials vote to repeal 'rights of nature' river conservation initiative (KUNC)


• Nederland CO repeals “rights of nature” in favor of reservoir (Western Water)


• Colorado Town Learns the Harm Caused by Granting Rights to Nature (Humniaze Center)

Trump Confident, Dems Stressed

Photograph by Philip Montgomery for TIME

Six months out, Donald Trump and his campaign appear confident and Democrats increasingly stressed. Trump’s ebullient mood was showcased in his Time Magazine interview where he described his aggressive, authoritarian initiatives for the next term. Democrat nervousness is highlighted by the Administration trying to lock in Biden Presidential executive orders and Beltway cocktail chatter on countries to move to.

Polls are producing the current Democratic gloom. Joe Biden’s State of the Union address produced a brief surge, but the national polls are now deadlocked with little movement. Democrats’ main problem is the electoral college. Biden is losing most of the battleground states. Out of seven, Biden is only close in three.

Also ominous is Biden’s trailing Trump in trust to handle key issues such as the economy 46% to 32% (see table), inflation 44% to 30%, crime 41% to 33% and immigration 47% to 35%. Biden wins abortion 41% to 29% but it was judged less important. (ABC News poll Gary Langer)

Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average drawn from RealClear Politics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallop, and other credible polls.

There are no credible national political analysts who believe Biden is on a winning trajectory. As Peggy Noonan opined in the WSJ on Saturday, “Mr. Trump is ahead in most if not all of the battleground states, and I’m struck by the number of political operatives, veterans and thinkers now asking, honestly, if there is anything the president can do to pull it out.” (WSJ 5-12-24)

Law & Order Now Tops Police Reform as Public Concern

Leora Joseph and Jon Walsh | Photo Alex Edwards, Denver Gazette

A demand for more security in schools, downtown streets, and neighborhoods has intensified since the end of the pandemic. District attorney contests today tend to be battles between post-George Floyd police and legal reforms and newer, intense demand for law and order to stop a surge in high profile snatch and grabs, shootings, assaults, carjackings, and break-ins. And the reformers are on the defensive with even some DAs being recalled.

In Denver’s primary on June 25 for retiring DA Beth McCann’s open seat, both candidates claim to be tough on crime, so money, endorsements, and ability to attract voters attention in a likely modest summer primary vote will be important.

John Walsh, former Colorado US Attorney, is running against Leora Joseph, the director of the Colorado Office of Civil and Forensic Mental Health. Walsh has the advantage in money ($355,000 to $280,000) and endorsements from a host of former Denver DAs (including the retiring incumbent), mayors and both US Senators. Joseph has the police and fire fighters’ unions.

In describing the race, Denver Gazette reporter Carol McKinley wrote:

“The money helps turn out the vote,” said longtime Colorado pollster and commentator Floyd Ciruli, who predicted that the race would see “a pretty modest turnout” in Denver’s primary election.

“Both Walsh and Joseph have positioned themselves as law and order candidates, which Ciruli said is an important issue to Denver voters this year.

“You saw it in Denver related to the school district election, when voters were very concerned about violence in the schools. You saw it in the mayor’s election, when the public wanted to know the candidates’ positions with police and with the homeless,” the pollster said.

“So, we’ve had two major elections in which crime and the public’s security were big issues and it’s likely to be that again for the Denver District Attorney race,” Ciruli said.

“This year’s race promises to be much closer, Ciruli said that both candidates “have elements of law and order. My sense is that this is important in this political atmosphere.”

Read Article

Pro-Palestinian Protests Lack Public Support

Remnants of the pro-Palestinian protest encampment at UCLA on May 2, 2024. (KTLA)

Campus presidents and chancellors have another group to consider as they try to balance students’ free speech rights, engaged facilities and finishing the school year and commencements – an unhappy public.

New polls show pro-Palestinian protests are opposed by the public two-to-one over support. In fact, 47 percent of the public would ban them. The following table shows support and opposition for the protests from YouGov and Morning Consult polls.

Nearly one-third (30%) of Americans 44 years old and younger oppose the pro-Palestinian protests. Another 31 percent are “not sure.” Among 45 year olds and older, 62 percent oppose protests. Not surprising, Jews and Muslims are completely polarized on the issue.

Three quarters of the public (76%), including 67 percent of 18 to 34 year olds, support “asking police to protect campuses from violence.” A pro-Palestinian ban on demonstrations had support of 47 percent of voters, including 42 percent from 18 to 34 year olds.

RELATED
Campus Protests Helped Elect Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon
Gen Z Bails on Israel

House Vote on Military Aid

Ukrainian soldiers take part in a training exercise Photo: Kyodo via AP Images

The dramatic Saturday US House vote on military aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan highlighted the division within the Republican Party and may presage more bipartisan collaboration.(4-20-24)

• Israeli aid lost 58 votes, with the majority from Democrats, 37 refusing to endorse Israel’s Gaza campaign.
  
  
  
• Ukraine aid lost 112 Republican votes, one more than 109 majority of the House Republicans. If far right dissidents want to remove Speaker Johnson, they have a substantial base of votes in the anti-Ukraine aid crowd but 101 Republicans voted for Ukraine aid. They would be unlikely partners in the removal. In addition, Mike Johnson’s victory has him widely heralded and the level of chaos and criticism would be substantial.


• If the far right tries and fails to remove him, it will confirm their gadfly image; if they succeed, it will be a blow to many moderate Republicans up for reelection and candidates in competitive seats.
  
  Mike Johnson’s maneuvering on the aid package demonstrated political skill, was broadly praised as principled, and celebrated across many worldwide media platforms. Republicans have a hero.


• Taiwan aid’s 385 yes vote shows that both parties have a substantial commitment to its defense.

All in all, a very good day for US national security and the defense hawk wings of both parties. A bad moment for Marjorie Taylor Green.

RELATED:
Switch: Americans Now More Supportive of Ukraine than Israel

Will More Funding Be Directed to Colorado Water Projects?

Betting kiosk in Monarch casino | Photo by Kevin Simpson, The Colorado Sun

Colorado voters may be asked to direct more sports gaming revenue to water conservation projects.

Jerd Smith of Fresh Water News reports on new legislation with bipartisan support including House speaker Julie McCluskie that will refer a ballot issue to voters in November. It will shift any gaming revenue over a $29 million cap in the original ballot proposition to water projects.

I said the measure should pass with leadership support and that voters are likely to be supportive.

1. Voters are concerned about water conservation
2. The measure would not expand gaming or increase taxes
   • Gaming interests (Fan Duel or DraftKings) are not opposed
   • Environmental interests appear supportive

“While the original sports betting ballot measure received tepid support, the tax question, if it makes the ballot, may win broader support due to ongoing voter concerns about water conservation and protection and the high-profile crisis on the drought- stressed Colorado River, veteran pollster and political analyst Floyd Ciruli said.

“I have not seen any polls that negate what we knew strongly back then, that water conservation and water protection are environmental issues that Coloradans care strongly about,” he said."

Link to article: Colorado voters may be asked to send more sports betting money to water projects

Gen Z Bails on Israel

Anti-war protestors confront Federal troops in Grant park. Illinois, Chicago. USA. 1968.
Photo © Raymond Depardon | Magnum Photos

Riots helped elect Nixon in 1968. Can Trump benefit from fear and loathing too?

The latest New York Times/Siena poll reinforces the new political reality that Americans under 30 years old, or Generation Z, are more sympathetic to Palestinians than Israel in its conflict. By a three to one ratio, 18 to 29 year old voters favor Palestinians over Israelis. Adults, 45 years old and above (Generation X and Baby Boomers) are three to one in favor of Israel, the inverse of younger voters.

The particular problem for President Biden is that Gen Z was assumed to be a part of the Democratic coalition. Biden needs this conflict to resolve soon and fade into background. If it doesn’t imagine Chicago.

Campus Protests Helped Elect Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon

Protesters at UCLA in front of Royce Hall
Photo by David Crane/MediaNews Group/Los Angeles Daily News via Getty Images

Republicans, led by Speaker Mike Johnson, know that campus protests are a law and order issue for many voters. And as protesters become more disruptive and aggressive, they can become as big an issue as urban crime and the border for Republicans.

In 1966, Ronald Reagan in his first gubernatorial campaign, blamed incumbent governor Pat Brown of being soft on crime (Watts Riots) and coddling radicals (UC Berkeley).

Richard Nixon presented himself in 1968 as the candidate of social stability in the face of national upheaval, highlighted by the youth counterculture, students anti-war protests, and urban riots.

Although the law and order issue helped elect Republican candidates, it didn’t stop the protests. Two years later, on May 4, 1970, a National Guard shooting at a Kent State campus anti-war protest ignited a national student action that closed many colleges, including in California, for up to six weeks.

Iran – A Threat

President Biden chairs National Security meeting with Secretary of State Blinken, Secretary of Defense Austin, CIA Director Burns, and National Security Advisor Sullivan
Photo provided by The White House/Handout via Reuters

Iran has been considered a threat by Americans for decades. Along with imprisoning 53 Americans for 444 days in 1979, Iran expresses aggressive anti-Western ideology, actively supports and frequently applauds Islamic terrorist acts especially in the Middle East, and is now strongly aligning with Russia and China in anti-U.S. positions.

In a 2024 Gallup poll, 81 percent of Americans rated Iran unfavorably and 70 percent considered it having nuclear weapons a threat to U.S. vital interests.

Although U.S. policies have become more conflicted on helping Israel in its war with Hamas (two-thirds of Democrats-no weapons transfers to Israel for Hamas war), the vast majority of Americans (67%) support Israel in a confrontation with Iran. Only 32 percent would provide no support to Israel.

Wildfire – a Threat to Orange Counties’ Fire Vulnerable Areas

Laguna Hills Brush Fire | Photo: CNN

Orange County has major wildfires on a regular basis. From the 1993 Laguna Fire that destroyed more than 250 homes and evacuated 24,000 residents of the city to the more recent Coast Fire in 2022 that destroyed 20 homes (see picture above), the county has a host of vulnerable non-urban areas next to canyons, mountain, and wildlands. County fire authorities have identified 10 high fire hazard areas that are endangered with larger, faster, more frequent blazes fueled by buildup of vegetation, the drying warmer climate and well- known Santa Ana winds.

In a 2023 Ciruli Associates survey of Orange County, more residents in high fire zones (59%) were likely to believe wildfire was the county’s top environmental problem compared to the countywide average (51%) or residents in non-high-fire zones (49%).

Not surprising, twice as many reported (30% to 13%) having been evacuated from their homes. However, similar percentages of county wide residents said their property would be damaged by a wildfire if there was a threat and high fire area residents were similar to overall county residents in believing additional response to wildfires was needed.

The survey concerning wildfire was conducted for an association of Orange County fire agencies and conservation groups by Ciruli Associates with YouGov America. The survey of 1,000 residents was fielded from July 20 to August 27, 2023. Of these, a subsample of 135 were identified as residents of high-risk fire regions. Areas identified were in Laguna Beach, Irvine, Anaheim, Newport, San Juan Capistrano, Mission Viejo, and Coto de Caza. The entire survey had a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence.

For more information contact Floyd Ciruli at fciruli@aol.com.

Independents & Climate Change

Orange County Coast

Independent party identification is rapidly increasing nationally and in Orange County. Independents in the U.S. have risen from about a third of the electorate early in this century to 43 percent today while both Democratic & Republican identification declined from a third to 27 percent, according to Gallup’s latest poll.

Locally, Orange County voter registration historically Republican dominated, has also shifted to a near tie among partisans – Democrats 37 percent, Republicans 33 percent, with no party preference climbing to 28 percent from 15 percent in 2004.

In an Orange County survey conducted in August 2023, residents of different party preferences had similar views on top two environmental problems in the County (see table below) which were wildfire and water supply. However, their views divide dramatically related to climate change, the third most frequently rated issue. There was a 43 percent difference between Democrats and Republicans in the highly polarized issue, with Democrats much more likely to rate it a top problem (65%) and Republicans much less (22%). At 38 percent, No Party Preference are near the mean (42%) but leaned toward the Republican view (see table).

The survey concerning fire prevention and mitigation was conducted for an association of Orange County fire agencies and conservation groups by Ciruli Associates with YouGov America. The survey of 1000 residents was fielded from July 20 to August 27, 2023. It had a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

For more information contact Floyd Ciruli at fciruli@aol.com

Doug Kemper - Educator

Colorado River in Glenwood Canyon | Photo: PPIC

Doug Kemper, after 20 years of leadership of the Colorado Water Congress, has just announced his retirement. Kemper has been a tireless advocate for the state’s water rights. He skillfully managed Colorado’s always complex and sometimes fraught water laws, development and interests.

He was especially good as an educator, conducting highly interesting and thought-provoking statewide conferences twice a year in person and on Zoom. It has become the go-to event for water professionals to network and gain critical information.

The challenge of maintaining a sustainable water supply for Colorado’s citizens, economy and environment has been enhanced by Kemper’s effective leadership.

Good job Doug.

1984 Convention

Sherry Wolff managed the Colorado Democratic delegation at the historic 1984 National Convention in San Francisco, which put Gary Hart in nomination. She just passed away.

She was a tireless advocate for women’s rights, democracy, and Democrats.

She will be missed.

Three Open Colorado Seats – Could the Democrats Win One?

Boebert and Williams with Trump | Images via Twitter

Republicans have abandoned the three congressional seats they held in Colorado. All three have a Republican registration and performance edge but the party is so divided and its MAGA wing so influential it could produce an election environment where voters say “enough,” it’s time for a change.

3rd CD	New polls show Lauren Boebert is the least likable statewide politician (22% favorable/62% unfavorable). Voters in the 3rd CD may just vote for the Democratic alternative, Adam Frisch to express their disdain for Boebert’s behavior. Frisch nearly won in 2022 and has millions to spend. The Republicans will have a MAGA vs. Establishment primary.
4th CD	Boebert is now trying to hang on to her Congressional job in the 4th CD. A poll shows she might win a multi-candidate primary even though she only has 32% support (likely at least 4 candidates). Most voters are undecided. Republicans gave the open seat from Ken Buck’s quick exit to a controversial ex-mayor, Greg Lopez. Democrats nominated unknown candidate Trisha Calvarese. Could a Democrat win it?
5th CD	Dave Williams has managed to become one of the state’s most disdained politicians, not an easy task. Colorado Springs’ voters, especially its large unaffiliated contingent, appear tired of the Republican Party’s extreme positions and divisive politics. It has been breaking with Republican control. The new mayor, an Independent recent African immigrant, beat the Republican candidate. If Williams is the nominee, is there an alternative?

OC Congressional Races – A Battleground

OC Congressional Map via https://ocvote.gov

Both Democrats and Republicans recognize that the four main battleground seats in Orange County could help provide the margin to control the U.S. House of Representatives’ majority.

The March 5 primary has set the stage for a repeat of the contests in 2022 with the biggest battle in Katie Porter’s new open seat centered in Irvine and Costa Mesa. The following table shows the primary winners with their percentages. It also lists the 2022 general election winners and results.

Young Kim, Michelle Steel, and Mike Levin won in 2022 and appear ready to repeat. Porter’s CD 47 is likely to be the most contested. She barely held it in 2022 (52% after spending $28 million), no doubt one reason to try the U.S. Senate race instead of re-election. Scott Baugh is making a second attempt and Democrat Dave Min survived a very fierce primary. Republicans will target this race.

Both candidates can expect significant outside funding. Porter had $9 million spent against her from independent sources in 2022. Min is Korean and as Kim and Steel demonstrate, an Asian background can be a voting advantage in Orange County. (CD 47 is 28% Asian.) Min may get a little help from national ticket. Biden carried the district in 2020 with 53 percent near his county average but may be weaker this time.

Switch: Americans Now More Supportive of Ukraine than Israel

Photo: Getty Images

In the latest Quinnipiac Poll, back-to-back questions on Ukraine and Israel shows Americans now support more military aid to Ukraine 53 to 43 percent, but oppose military aid to Israel 52 to 39 percent – a historic collapse of support for Israel.

Do you support or oppose the United States sending more military aid to Ukraine for their efforts in the war with Russia?

Do you support or oppose the United States sending more military aid to Israel for their efforts in the war with Hamas?

Support for Israel among Democrats has been sliding for several years but as I wrote last year before leaving for a tour of Israel, the government’s shift to the right would increase anti-Israel sentiment in the U.S. It has, especially with Democrats (63% opposed to aid) and voters under 34 years old (68% opposed). Also, minority voters in the poll were highly opposed to Israel aid (Blacks 66%, Hispanics 65%).

Foreign policy and military aid specifically has become more partisan in the Trump era. Support for aid to Ukraine registered at 79 percent among Democrats but only 31 percent for Republicans.

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