Iran – A Threat

President Biden chairs National Security meeting with Secretary of State Blinken, Secretary of Defense Austin, CIA Director Burns, and National Security Advisor Sullivan
Photo provided by The White House/Handout via Reuters

Iran has been considered a threat by Americans for decades. Along with imprisoning 53 Americans for 444 days in 1979, Iran expresses aggressive anti-Western ideology, actively supports and frequently applauds Islamic terrorist acts especially in the Middle East, and is now strongly aligning with Russia and China in anti-U.S. positions.

In a 2024 Gallup poll, 81 percent of Americans rated Iran unfavorably and 70 percent considered it having nuclear weapons a threat to U.S. vital interests.

Although U.S. policies have become more conflicted on helping Israel in its war with Hamas (two-thirds of Democrats-no weapons transfers to Israel for Hamas war), the vast majority of Americans (67%) support Israel in a confrontation with Iran. Only 32 percent would provide no support to Israel.

Wildfire – a Threat to Orange Counties’ Fire Vulnerable Areas

Laguna Hills Brush Fire | Photo: CNN

Orange County has major wildfires on a regular basis. From the 1993 Laguna Fire that destroyed more than 250 homes and evacuated 24,000 residents of the city to the more recent Coast Fire in 2022 that destroyed 20 homes (see picture above), the county has a host of vulnerable non-urban areas next to canyons, mountain, and wildlands. County fire authorities have identified 10 high fire hazard areas that are endangered with larger, faster, more frequent blazes fueled by buildup of vegetation, the drying warmer climate and well- known Santa Ana winds.

In a 2023 Ciruli Associates survey of Orange County, more residents in high fire zones (59%) were likely to believe wildfire was the county’s top environmental problem compared to the countywide average (51%) or residents in non-high-fire zones (49%).

Not surprising, twice as many reported (30% to 13%) having been evacuated from their homes. However, similar percentages of county wide residents said their property would be damaged by a wildfire if there was a threat and high fire area residents were similar to overall county residents in believing additional response to wildfires was needed.

The survey concerning wildfire was conducted for an association of Orange County fire agencies and conservation groups by Ciruli Associates with YouGov America. The survey of 1,000 residents was fielded from July 20 to August 27, 2023. Of these, a subsample of 135 were identified as residents of high-risk fire regions. Areas identified were in Laguna Beach, Irvine, Anaheim, Newport, San Juan Capistrano, Mission Viejo, and Coto de Caza. The entire survey had a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence.

For more information contact Floyd Ciruli at fciruli@aol.com.

Independents & Climate Change

Orange County Coast

Independent party identification is rapidly increasing nationally and in Orange County. Independents in the U.S. have risen from about a third of the electorate early in this century to 43 percent today while both Democratic & Republican identification declined from a third to 27 percent, according to Gallup’s latest poll.

Locally, Orange County voter registration historically Republican dominated, has also shifted to a near tie among partisans – Democrats 37 percent, Republicans 33 percent, with no party preference climbing to 28 percent from 15 percent in 2004.

In an Orange County survey conducted in August 2023, residents of different party preferences had similar views on top two environmental problems in the County (see table below) which were wildfire and water supply. However, their views divide dramatically related to climate change, the third most frequently rated issue. There was a 43 percent difference between Democrats and Republicans in the highly polarized issue, with Democrats much more likely to rate it a top problem (65%) and Republicans much less (22%). At 38 percent, No Party Preference are near the mean (42%) but leaned toward the Republican view (see table).

The survey concerning fire prevention and mitigation was conducted for an association of Orange County fire agencies and conservation groups by Ciruli Associates with YouGov America. The survey of 1000 residents was fielded from July 20 to August 27, 2023. It had a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

For more information contact Floyd Ciruli at fciruli@aol.com

Doug Kemper - Educator

Colorado River in Glenwood Canyon | Photo: PPIC

Doug Kemper, after 20 years of leadership of the Colorado Water Congress, has just announced his retirement. Kemper has been a tireless advocate for the state’s water rights. He skillfully managed Colorado’s always complex and sometimes fraught water laws, development and interests.

He was especially good as an educator, conducting highly interesting and thought-provoking statewide conferences twice a year in person and on Zoom. It has become the go-to event for water professionals to network and gain critical information.

The challenge of maintaining a sustainable water supply for Colorado’s citizens, economy and environment has been enhanced by Kemper’s effective leadership.

Good job Doug.

1984 Convention

Sherry Wolff managed the Colorado Democratic delegation at the historic 1984 National Convention in San Francisco, which put Gary Hart in nomination. She just passed away.

She was a tireless advocate for women’s rights, democracy, and Democrats.

She will be missed.

Three Open Colorado Seats – Could the Democrats Win One?

Boebert and Williams with Trump | Images via Twitter

Republicans have abandoned the three congressional seats they held in Colorado. All three have a Republican registration and performance edge but the party is so divided and its MAGA wing so influential it could produce an election environment where voters say “enough,” it’s time for a change.

3rd CD	New polls show Lauren Boebert is the least likable statewide politician (22% favorable/62% unfavorable). Voters in the 3rd CD may just vote for the Democratic alternative, Adam Frisch to express their disdain for Boebert’s behavior. Frisch nearly won in 2022 and has millions to spend. The Republicans will have a MAGA vs. Establishment primary.
4th CD	Boebert is now trying to hang on to her Congressional job in the 4th CD. A poll shows she might win a multi-candidate primary even though she only has 32% support (likely at least 4 candidates). Most voters are undecided. Republicans gave the open seat from Ken Buck’s quick exit to a controversial ex-mayor, Greg Lopez. Democrats nominated unknown candidate Trisha Calvarese. Could a Democrat win it?
5th CD	Dave Williams has managed to become one of the state’s most disdained politicians, not an easy task. Colorado Springs’ voters, especially its large unaffiliated contingent, appear tired of the Republican Party’s extreme positions and divisive politics. It has been breaking with Republican control. The new mayor, an Independent recent African immigrant, beat the Republican candidate. If Williams is the nominee, is there an alternative?

OC Congressional Races – A Battleground

OC Congressional Map via https://ocvote.gov

Both Democrats and Republicans recognize that the four main battleground seats in Orange County could help provide the margin to control the U.S. House of Representatives’ majority.

The March 5 primary has set the stage for a repeat of the contests in 2022 with the biggest battle in Katie Porter’s new open seat centered in Irvine and Costa Mesa. The following table shows the primary winners with their percentages. It also lists the 2022 general election winners and results.

Young Kim, Michelle Steel, and Mike Levin won in 2022 and appear ready to repeat. Porter’s CD 47 is likely to be the most contested. She barely held it in 2022 (52% after spending $28 million), no doubt one reason to try the U.S. Senate race instead of re-election. Scott Baugh is making a second attempt and Democrat Dave Min survived a very fierce primary. Republicans will target this race.

Both candidates can expect significant outside funding. Porter had $9 million spent against her from independent sources in 2022. Min is Korean and as Kim and Steel demonstrate, an Asian background can be a voting advantage in Orange County. (CD 47 is 28% Asian.) Min may get a little help from national ticket. Biden carried the district in 2020 with 53 percent near his county average but may be weaker this time.

Switch: Americans Now More Supportive of Ukraine than Israel

Photo: Getty Images

In the latest Quinnipiac Poll, back-to-back questions on Ukraine and Israel shows Americans now support more military aid to Ukraine 53 to 43 percent, but oppose military aid to Israel 52 to 39 percent – a historic collapse of support for Israel.

Do you support or oppose the United States sending more military aid to Ukraine for their efforts in the war with Russia?

Do you support or oppose the United States sending more military aid to Israel for their efforts in the war with Hamas?

Support for Israel among Democrats has been sliding for several years but as I wrote last year before leaving for a tour of Israel, the government’s shift to the right would increase anti-Israel sentiment in the U.S. It has, especially with Democrats (63% opposed to aid) and voters under 34 years old (68% opposed). Also, minority voters in the poll were highly opposed to Israel aid (Blacks 66%, Hispanics 65%).

Foreign policy and military aid specifically has become more partisan in the Trump era. Support for aid to Ukraine registered at 79 percent among Democrats but only 31 percent for Republicans.

RELATED:
Will Israel’s Move to the Right Increase Anti-Israel Sentiment in the U.S.? March 17, 2023
Israel – Flight Out of Ben Gurion Airport as Netanyahu Loses Control April 12, 2023

KHOW Talk – Colorado Pollster: If Election Today, Biden Would Lose

In an interview on KHOW radio (630), longtime Colorado pollster Floyd Ciruli told host Ryan Schuiling that if the Presidential election was held today, President Joe Biden would most likely lose to Donald Trump, both in the popular vote and the electoral college.

The big highlights in a wide-ranging talk were:

• Biden has tightened the popular vote since January but is still losing the RealClearPolitics average by one percent.
• He’s losing even more when third parties’ candidates are considered and he’s not winning most of the battleground states with the most reliable polls available.
• Neither candidate appears to be reaching out to swing voters. Biden hasn’t taken on one of his biggest weaknesses, immigration and the border, but Trump continues to play to his base and ignore Nikki Haley and suburban voters.
• Although Robert Kennedy Jr. lacks a consistent message, he is trying to gather the disaffiliated voters from a base of old blue-collar voters who liked his dad and the family, and a long-established anti-vaccine constituency. He is now trying to add isolationists with criticism of Ukraine, NATO to a variety of anti-government, anti-corporate themes. At least some of these issues will compete with Trump’s messages just as his Kennedy background attracts some Democrats.

RELATED:
One Point Presidential Race April 4, 2024

One Point Presidential Race

Joe Biden has narrowed the 4-point gap he had with Donald Trump in January down to one point on the RCP average at the end of March.

In spite of the improvement, Biden is still in trouble and if the election were today he would lose. The pattern between Democrats and Trump since 2016 has been they win the popular vote substantially (3 million or 2% in 2016 and 7 million or 4.5% in 2020) and win or lose the electoral vote close. Today, along with not being ahead in the popular vote, local polling in battleground states shows Biden improving but still behind by 3 or more points in a 5 of 7 states.

The Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallop, and other credible polls.

Democrats’ other problem is the third-party candidacies of Robert Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein. They are taking a more votes from Biden than Trump – a 2-point gap when third parties are included.

Democrats have made progress but have a long way to go to reduce pre-November anxiety.

RELATED
Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is It Over? January 3, 2024
Biden Narrows Gap February 27, 2024

Battle Between Republicans: MAGA vs Establishment

Left - MAGA Republicans Boebert and Greene (Photo: Evelyn Hockstein/Pool via AP)
Right - Establshment Republican Cheney (Photo: Drew Angerer via Getty Images)

The June 25 primary will be one of Colorado’s most important political events of the year and an all-Republican story. It will be a dramatic test between the Republican establishment and the MAGA wing. There are three contested Republican congressional district primaries and a special election for Ken Bucks’ 4th CD remaining term (June 2024 to January 2025).

3rd CD	Will the candidates be Adam Fritch-D and Jeff Hurd-R, the anticipated frontrunners, or can a MAGA candidate (Ron Hanks) upset the result?
4th CD	Who is on the primary ballot? Boebert is on by petition. Who does the party select? Does she win? Who is Republican nominee on the special election ballot? The campaign has started. She is attacking Buck as irrelevant and other candidates as establishment “Ukraine first.” Monitoring the Republican vacancy committee will be a drama as will the primary deliberations of the central committee.
5th CD	The Republican battle in the Lamborn seat gets more interesting daily with the MAGA forces divided between super MAGA party state Chair Dave Williams endorsed by former President Trump, and conservative podcast host Jeff Crank with Speaker Johnson’s backing.

A victory of Williams and Boebert will continue the Trump takeover of the Colorado party and likely accelerate its slide with more Republican deflectors to unaffiliated and a persisting absence from statewide office.

RELATED
Greene & Boebert Espouse Christian Nationalism (April 7, 2023)

Don’t Write Boebert’s Obit

Lauren Boebert | Photo KEVIN DIETSCH/GETTY IMAGES

Lauren Boebert’s personal and political problems would finish a normal politician. But in spite of the failures of her business, her marriage, and having to switch districts to survive, Boebert remains a viable, even front running candidate in the June 25 Republican primary for Colorado’s 4th Congressional District.

In a widely reprinted interview Tal Axelrod (ABC News Digital 3-13-24-see Newsweek) asked, “Can you write her obituary?” My answer: “Her personal brand, it is terrible. Between not only the particular problem in the 4th [Congressional District], that is she’s a carpetbagger, but what she brings over with her is just terrible. Under no normal conditions would she be elected,” Ciruli said.

“She’s got the money, she’s got universal name identification, she has several other people running, so there’ll be a multi-candidate ballot. And she had initially Johnson’s support, and now she has Trump’s. And that’s a Trump district,” Ciruli said.

“Even though her personal brand is as low as you can go and damaged, she still would probably find a third of the vote,” he added. “And in a multi-candidate field, we assume a third of the vote is going to give her the primary.”

Lauren Boebert’s ‘Terrible’ Brand May Not Matter: Colorado Pollster - Newsweek 3-16-24

According to Floyd Ciruli, the congresswoman’s “terrible” brand may not matter in her primary race as she has been endorsed by Donald Trump.

READ
Newsweek Article
ABC News Article

Colorado Election Scan on Super Tuesday

Twotwofourtysix, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

The following are observations from Colorado opinion leaders after a series of discussions during the week of the Super Tuesday primary election (March 7):

1) Boebert:	She wins June 25 primary, Trump endorsement reinforces her advantage: money, multiple candidate field in strongly Trump leaning 4th CD. [Election now chaotic with Buck’s early retirement.]
2) Hurd:	Fundraising and campaigning should win primary and the general for Hurd. Even with millions, Fritch has problem without Boebert. Trump wins district, moderate Republicans and MAGA go with Hurd. But lots of unaffiliated voters. Race should be a fight.
3) Fifth CD:	Super denier Williams could win and become Colorado’s “Matt Gaetz.” Crank gets establishment support but Williams gets MAGA who have been winning local party contests. Could unaffiliated voters make a difference for Crank? [Crank just received Johnson endorsement. Williams, Trump.]
4) Caraveo	She could be in trouble as new congressperson in year Biden does poorly but she has money and incumbency and large base of Hispanic voters. Challenger is inexperienced state legislator, but she is low key and border issue could help him.
5) Trump:	Polling be damned. Many Colorado observers believe Trump will lose general election. Haley shows segment of Republicans don’t buy his return. She could get upwards of 40% of Colorado Super Tuesday votes. (She got 33%.)
6) Biden:	Colorado Dems allowed a protest with “uncommitted” younger voters angry about Gaza, Biden’s age, and vulnerability (if he should step back), etc. (Uncommitted got 9%.) He wins Colorado but by half of his 2020 vote (14% in 2020).

Porter’s Other Problems: Money, a Celebrity Republican, Trump and Low Turnout

Katie Porter (D-CA) March 5, 2024. Photo by Jeff Gritchen, Orange County Register/SCNG

Katie Porter’s problem was more than Adam Schiff’s campaign advertising. Her weak third place finish was foreshadowed, early in the race, with Adam Schiff’s superior fundraising and the entrance of a celebrity Republican last fall. But equally damaging was the emergence of Donald Trump and Joe Biden as two incredibly unpopular presidential nominees. Steve Garvey clearly was the Republican who could gather most of the Republican vote and turnout was depressed by the boring presidential contest dominated by unpopular candidates. Porter’s strategy depended on young voters turning out. They didn’t. Also, Schiff’s image as the Trump antagonist was greatly aided by the dominance of Trump since the Iowa and New Hampshire nominating events.

Porter’s problems were:

• Schiff fundraising puts him on TV, whereas Porter was mostly online, hoping for the youth vote.
• Trump emerges as Republican nominee. Boring presidential race dampens turnout, especially among youth.
• Garvey, a celebrity Republican, enters a weak field of Republicans.
• Porter goes on the attack of candidates (Schiff) as tools of big corporations before any Schiff ads related to attacking Garvey were placed.
• Schiff takes on Garvey as the preferred opponent, after seeing his weak performance in the first debate, raised Garvey’s visibility.

RELATED:
Schiff, Garvey Have Lead as Porter Stalls (February 26, 2024)

Metro Denver Sales Tax Flattens Out

The seven county Denver Metro sales tax revenue increases of recent years (2020 was COVID year) have flattened out.

Population growth declined dramatically except for Douglas County over the last census period (2020 July to 2023 July) after more than a decade of steady increase. What other factors may be impacting regional sales tax revenue have not been reported yet? This may be a return to a more common average of 3 to 4 percent annual increase.

RELATED:
Sales Tax Slowdown (October 20, 2023)

Bull Market Continues to Run

The year-end rally that produced a nearly 14 percent increase in the DOW has continued. And the DOW is still the laggard. Its 3.8 percent improvement in the first two months of the year was exceeded by the tech heavy NAS (6.6%, 43% in 2023) and the broader S&P (6.7%, 24% in 2023). All three indexes hit new highs this year.

Only a handful of stocks have been the primary movers in this market. The so-called Magnificent Seven: Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Nvidia, Meta Platform and Tesla.

Although there continues to be uncertainty related to interest rates (now about 5%), inflation (above 3%) and a possible economic slowdown in the remainder of the year, it still appears to be a good investment market. Rates are likely to come down slower than expected in the next 10 months and inflation appears subdued, if not reversing. Also, with near full employment, wage gains, and steady consumer spending, fear of a recession has receded.

RELATED
Year End Rally Continues? (January 3, 2024)

Biden Narrows Gap

In the last month, President Biden has narrowed his voter gap with former President Trump from 4 points to 2 points but he is still behind. (Down 48% to 44% on January 30 to 46% to 44% on February 27) As the month ended, Trump was able to revel in the South Carolina win and his designation as the presumptive nominee.

Also, national polls show Biden is still losing more support to third-party candidates than Trump. He’s behind Trump 4 points when third-party candidates are included (RFK receives 14%). (See figure below)

The Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallop, and other credible polls.

Democrats mostly remain optimistic if not confident that the race is winnable. Forty percent of South Carolina Republicans voted for Nikki Haley, preferring an alternative to Trump.

The economy is improving, Trump induced chaos in the House, the backlash from his provocative talk about NATO and various legal skirmishes were big February news, helping Biden and Haley and keeping Trump on the defensive.

RELATED:
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. (February 14, 2024)

Schiff, Garvey Have Lead as Porter Stalls

Democratic U.S. Rep. Katie Porter and Republican Steve Garvey, Jan. 22, 2024.
Photo by Damian Dovarganes, AP Photo

After two debates and millions in advertising spending, the California Senate race is taking final shape with Democratic Congressperson Adam Schiff in a growing lead at 28 percent followed by Republican Steve Garvey (22%). Now stalled in third place in the latest Emerson College poll is Democratic Congressperson Katie Porter at 16 percent. A PPIC poll also conducted mid-month has Schiff ahead with Porter and Garvey tied for second place.

In the final debate (February 20), Porter launched an all-out attack on Schiff recognizing her vulnerable position two weeks out from the March 5 primary. She is targeting younger voters, the most difficult to turn out, especially in what is likely a lower turnout primary (a lack of presidential contest).

RELATED:
Porter Drops to Third, Republican Garvey in Second (January 2, 2024)
Schiff Starts Ahead for Final Senate Run (December 18, 2023)

Biden’s Colorado Win Cut in Half

Nationally, the presidential election is nearly tied (Biden 44% to Trump 45%) but two recent statewide Colorado surveys have President Joe Biden ahead of former President Donald Trump by about half (8 points) his 2020 election win of 14 points (55% to 42%). Trump is still toxic in the state with a negative 26 percent favorability rating compared to Biden’s negative 12 approval.

Generally it's good news for Colorado Democrats. In more competitive congressional and legislative districts, Biden appears to be not much help but also not have much negative effect. Republicans must still deal with Trump, who will probably carry the congressional districts he won in 2020 but be a burden in swing districts.

Five Biggest Takeaways from Media Panel

The Colorado Water Congress February 2 media panel analyzed the national elections’ impact in Colorado, the state’s four most contested Congressional Districts, and the opening turmoil in the state legislature.

Biggest Takeaways

National:	As of today, Biden would lose the national election and win Colorado by about half his 2020 victory – 14 points. His smaller margin would likely affect turnout and possibly close races as would ballot issues.
Congressional Districts:	Colorado has three open Republican House seats with primaries. One appears competitive in November. Democrats must defend their newest seat. 3rd CD incumbent fled the district. Republican candidate Jeff Hurd has the partisanship advantage but Democrat Adam Frisch has the money ($11 mil) and the close 2022 election result. Hurd has a slight edge. 4th CD will not be a picnic for the “carpetbagger” candidate Lauren Boebert, but she has all the advantage of the standard metrics, money ($1.4 mil), name identification, a likely multiple candidate opposition, and powerful endorsements. However, establishment Republicans would like to see her gone and her edgy behavior weighs her down. 5th CD is an open field with Republican State Chair Williams’ representing extreme MAGAs and possibly Doug Bruce trying to revive his old anti-tax reputation. Establishment will have candidate. 8th CD first term incumbent Yadira Caraveo is vulnerable in closely balanced district but she has money and more name ID. If Biden runs weaker and Republicans find a capable candidate, close race is expected. Best projection with current data is no change in partisan arrangement but a lot of drama and turmoil, at least through the June primary.
Legislature:	After brief fight, Republicans pick new leadership as legislature opens. Democratic leadership start session after disciplining outlier members. Representative Epps is MIA at capital and may add to the 29 record vacancies. The Democratic super majority can expect more sparks as progressive members push controversial legislation. Republicans are so far back as of today a couple of seats could change parties but not enough to shift control of either house.

Political reporters:

• John Frank – Axios
• Marianne Goodland – Colorado Politics
• Ernest Luning – Colorado Politics
• Floyd Ciruli - Pollster, Moderator

RELATED:
Colorado Politics in an Unprecedented Year

Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. Colorado Win Likely Cut in Half

As the general election begins, national polls show Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden by 2 points, as of February 13. While a few polls have Biden in the lead, the average has been negative for weeks. If third party candidate are included, Biden drops further and is losing by 5 points.

The Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallop, and other credible polls.

Trump is still politically toxic in Colorado but Biden is hardly booming. A new Colorado poll shows Biden with a negative favorability of 12 points, 40% to 58% as Trump’s favorability rating was worse (62 unfavorable/36% favorable. (Democratic polling firm Global Strategy Group). Biden still beats Trump but only by 8 points (49% to 41%), which would be about half his 14 point win statewide in 2020. The polling story appeared in Axios written by John Frank (2-7-24).

People are Voting with Their Feet – California Could Lose Four Congressional Seats

View of Los Angeles from Griffith Park Observatory Trails Peak Nov. 14, 2022
Photo by Jae C. Hong, AP Photo

The latest census population estimates have been released and when analyzed with congressional reapportionment, there is a dramatic shift of residents from Blue to Red states. The Brennan Center for Justice analyzed the data and projected the potential congressional shifts if trends seen the first couple of years after the 2020 census continue.

California, New York, Illinois are among the biggest losers in the latest population trends and Texas, Florida and South Carolina among the biggest winners.

California just lost the first congressional district in its history, so the possibility is not just speculation. But there are several mitigating factors to watch. These trends often change during the ten years, immigration could step up, and Texas and Florida could have social or economic problems or acts of nature that depress their current attractiveness. Also, some of the factors cited by people leaving California could be mitigated, for example, the cost of living and deteriorating quality of life.

RELATED:
California Population is Dropping (February 22, 2023)
California’s Losing Population and Power (January 6, 2023)
From Counties to School Districts, New Election Districts are in a Fight (February 14, 2022)
California Gains a Few People, But Loses Power (August 26, 2021)
California Sends a Congressional District to Colorado (January 3, 2020)

Pueblo Mayor Gradisar Crushed in Reelection Bid

Heather Graham | Photo: Jess Hazel / KRCC

Observers thought first term incumbent Pueblo Mayor Nick Gradisar was in trouble in the January 23 mayors’ runoff election but were surprised by the 62 to 38 percent result. In the nominally nonpartisan election, Gradisar, a high-profile old-line Democrat, was beaten by a young, very vocal Republican, Heather Graham, who started her political journey angry about the pandemic lockdown’s effect on her local restaurants – obviously a sentiment widely shared.

Pueblo, a mostly Democratic working-class city, has become less dependably Democratic in recent years. Voters became restless since the pandemic with frequent complaints about the city reputation for crime and the visible homeless population. Graham, city council president who came in first ahead of Gradisar in the November multicandidate election, presented a detailed plan for police recruitment and retention and was endorsed by the local police officer union. As president, she argued part of the city’s problem was the mayor’s lack of collaboration, producing conflict and gridlock, now she’s the mayor.

REALATED:
Nick Gradisar Wins Pueblo Mayor (January 24, 2019)
Pueblo Crushes Municipalization (May 8, 2020)

Colorado Surprise: Congressional Battleground

Twotwofourtysix, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

With no statewide race, a strong blue tint to the presidential race, and other than the endless Boebert drama, it appeared a slow year for Colorado political news. Then the State Supreme Court removed Donald Trump from the ballot (14th Amendment ban on insurrectionists) and the entire (3) Republican delegation retired or switched districts. Add the new Democrat congressperson in the 8th district likely to have a competitive race and Colorado is now a hotbed of politics from border to border.

As of now, half of Colorado’s congressional delegation is either in competitive primaries or could have a competitive general election. The Republicans should hold their three open seats (see table below) but the chaotic primaries and a dysfunctional party will likely make for considerable political drama.

Will a Change of Scenery save Boebert?

Rep. Lauren Boebert | Photo: Stephanie Scarbrough/AP

Can seat switcher Lauren Boebert be denied a primary win in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District? “Money and more name identity against multiple opponents is a strong position to be in. Also, she will get endorsements,” said Floyd Ciruli to E&E reporter Jennifer Yachnin from POLITICO.

Boebert, who announced she was ending her race for reelection in the neighboring 3rd Congressional District to switch to the Eastern Plains’ 4th CD, has a war chest of $1.4 million, universal name identification (much of it highly controversial) and a close relationship with the frontrunner for president, Donald Trump, and she has already been endorsed by the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson.

New District, Better Home?

Floyd Ciruli, a longtime Colorado pollster and director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver, noted that the 4th District is shifting and could become more welcoming to Boebert.

“It’s a seat that’s become very problematic. Buck quit because he was out of sync with the denial wing of the party that’s very strong,” Ciruli said, referring to individuals who dispute the results of the 2020 presidential contest. A lot of that district looks like rural Iowa, which just went overwhelmingly for Mr. [Donald] Trump.

Historically the seat hewed to the GOP’s establishment wing, electing lawmakers like Cory Gardner and Wayne Allard, before each would go on to hold Senate seats, Ciruli said.

The district could swing back to those roots, electing a candidate like Lynch and Sonnenberg, he noted, or it would shift to the conservative wing, with Boebert, Holtorf or Harvey.

“Whether or not they’re going to go with an establishment candidate, or someone like Boebert or somebody who raises as much Cain remains to be seen,” he said.

Moreover, a crowded field could benefit Boebert, Ciruli said.

“Money and name ID against multiple opponents is a strong position to be in,” he said. “She will get endorsements.”

But even if Boebert wins her reelection bid, Ciruli suggested that doesn’t mean she’s guaranteed a long career in Congress. He mused whether she’d even survive more than one more term.

“The reason why she’s getting driven out of the 3rd is not just that she probably would have lost it, but a powerful primary in which the state’s Republican establishment was giving Mr. Hurd money and accountability,” Ciruli said, referring to the endorsements Hurd nabbed.

Read Article: https://www.eenews.net/articles/will-a-change-of-scenery-save-boebert/

Colorado Politics in an Unprecedented Year

Colorado’s top political reporters will preview the state’s biggest races, the top legislative issues, and Colorado’s political personalities: Governor Polis, Mayor Johnston, and Lauren Boebert on Feb. 2 at the Colorado Water Congress Conference.

Pollster Floyd Ciruli will moderate the panel and lead the discussion through the national landscape, Colorado’s now myriad of Congressional open seats and primaries, and a legislative session that promises to deal with the high profile issues.

• How will the Congressional delegation change? Who has the advantage, disadvantage? (3rd, 4th, 5th and 8th CDs in spotlight)
• On March 5, Super Tuesday, will Colorado pick between Biden and Trump? If they are the presidential nominees in 2024, is a third party the winner? Does the presidential contest help or hurt local races?
• After the loss of Prop. HH, what’s next for legislation/initiative on taxes?
• Can Colorado Democrats unify their moderates and the far left to pass legislation on affordable housing, crime? Can the Republicans rebuild a legislative party?
• How would you grade Governor Polis’s year? Will it get better or worse?
• Whither the urban-rural divide: wolves, agriculture?

Political reporters:

• John Frank – Axios
• Marianne Goodland – Colorado Politics
• Ernest Luning – Colorado Politics

The Colorado Water Congress Conference (January 31 to February 2) is hosting the panel. See the Colorado Water Congress website for more information: https://www.cowatercongress.org/

Post Iowa: Is Nomination Contest Over?

Unless there is a major change between the January 15 Iowa Caucus and the March 5 Super Tuesday events, the race for the presidential nomination of the two major parties will be over. It may be over this week. Donald Trump’s Iowa landslide had the usual effect; also-ran candidates dropped out and candidates behind the frontrunner lacked momentum. If Trump is the nominee, does he help or hurt Colorado’s 3rd or 8th CDs, which may be close? Does he endorse Ms. Boebert in the 4th CD? If a third-party candidate/party such as RFK Jr. or No Labels is on the ballot, could they tilt the race away from the expected Joe Biden margin?

This blog posts a regular commentary and polling watch of the nominations – on to New Hampshire and South Carolina. It runs polling averages drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallop, and other credible polls.

Trump and Joe Biden are closely matched in favorability and the general election.

KOA – Iowa and New Hampshire

Interview with KOA’s Marty Lenz and Jeana Gondek Wednesday after the Iowa caucus. We reviewed the results and what’s next in New Hampshire (January 23) and South Carolina (February 24).

1. Donald Trump met the expectation to win but turnout was low (not unexpected given the freeze) and half of the votes went to other candidate. But he did do better with suburban, upscale voters.
2. Nikki Haley needed to come in second (some polls had her ahead of Ron DeSantis) but barely missed it. So, she lost the positive press and momentum into New Hampshire. She is still seen as the strongest candidate to take on Trump. Between her and Chris Christie, who has dropped out, they have 42 percent of New Hampshire voters (Republican and Independents) and Trump 44.
3. New Hampshire, due to its independent voters being able to participate and more moderate, less evangelical Republicans is seen as the best early state for Haley. It’s a must win for her.
4. Early polls in South Carolina show Trump with 52 percent and Haley at 22 percent, in spite of being the former governor. The state’s Republicans are very conservative and Trump has been a longtime favorite.
5. The end of the Christie, Vivek Ramaswamy, Asa Hutchinson campaigns was expected given the polls, results, and lack of new contributions. Called the winnowing of the process, it normally leads to a consolidation toward a frontrunner or the few remaining competitors.
6. Colorado and 15 other states vote on March 5, probably the end of the competitive primary season and start of the general election campaign.

KOA’s Marty Lenz and Jeana Gondek

“Unprecedented” 2024 Race for President and Impact on Colorado

By the time Colorado voters weigh in March 5, the race for president will be over, unless something “unprecedented” stops the Trump vs Biden trajectory. A media panel will consider what that means for Colorado politics, for example, does it help or hurt Republican Congressional candidates? The Colorado Water Congress 2024 Convention will host the event February 2 at the Hyatt Denver/Aurora with Pollster Floyd Ciruli and a panel of Colorado’s top political reporters. He will be joined by:

• John Frank – Axios
• Marianne Goodland – Colorado Politics
• Ernest Luning – Colorado Politics

See the Colorado Water Congress website for more information: https://www.cowatercongress.org/
Best, Floyd

Generation Z and Millennials Rate Climate Change Top Environmental Problem

In a 2023 Ciruli Associates survey in Orange County, wildfire was judged the top environmental threat by 51 percent of the public, with climate change third at 42 percent. Drought/water supply was rated second (49%). However, Gen Z and young Millennials (ages 18 to 29) were especially concerned about climate change (see table). More of them rated it the top county environmental threat (51%) compared to all other age cohorts and 9 points above the countywide average. They rated wildfire second (48%) and drought third (46%).

The Pew Research organization has published the most broadly accepted breakdown of age cohorts into generations with descriptive labels. The generations chart shows Generation Z ranges from 11 to 26 years old, born after 1997. Gen Z and younger Millennials are the most diverse and liberal generation and are becoming the largest cohort, overtaking Boomers. Boomers are now over 58 years old to 77. Generation X ranges from 43 to 58.

Demographic groups rating climate change the top environmental problem, at least 5 points above the average of 42%, are people who moved to OC after 2000 (49%), Latinos (47%), and Asian (47%), self-labeled liberals (66%), and Democrats (65%).

The survey concerning wildfire was conducted for an association of Orange County fire agencies and conservation groups by Ciruli Associates with YouGov America. The survey of 1000 residents was fielded from July 20 to August 27, 2023. It had a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

Media Panel on “Unprecedented” 2024

Members of the Colorado House of Representatives | Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post

The year begins with a Congressional district swirl, the legislature is already tense, much of it intra party, and a presidential race is encouraging a third party – 2024 is “unprecedented.”

A media panel on Colorado politics will close out the Colorado Water Congress 2024 Convention. Pollster Floyd Ciruli will moderate the panel of Colorado’s top political reporters to sort out the fast-start and describe the approaching discord as best possible. He will be joined by:

• John Aguilar – Denver Post (invited)
• Marianne Goodland – Colorado Politico
• John Frank – Axios

The Colorado Water Congress annually hosts the state’s largest water conference which attracts water, environmental and policy professionals from around the state. The Governor, Attorney General, and other senior political leaders regularly attend.

See the Colorado Water Congress website for more information: https://www.cowatercongress.org/.

Best,

Floyd

It’s Wide Open – All Three Republican Congresspersons Quit Their Districts

Twotwofourtysix, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

The entire Colorado Republican Congressional delegation has abandoned their districts due to retirement and seat swapping. Three open seats with primaries will become Colorado’s dominant political story in 2024.

Out of Colorado’s eight Congressional districts, the Republicans have held three for more than a decade. The last Democrat in any of the three districts was John Salazar in the 3rd and Betsy Markey in the 4th. Both lost in 2010.

All three districts remain likely Republican wins in 2024, but the party in Colorado is polarized between its Trump denial faction and the more moderate/establishment wing. The primaries, besides contributing to the party’s image of chaos, allows for the possibility a vulnerable, far right candidate could win.

In a year that first appeared without much political action, Colorado now has contests from border to border.

Asian Americans Judge Wildfire & Climate Change Major Threats to Quality of Life

The Asian Garden Mall in Westminster | Photo: Voice of OC

In a 2023 Ciruli Associates survey in Orange County, wildfire was judged the top environmental threat by 51 percent of the public, with climate change third at 42 percent. Drought/water supply was rated second (49%). Asian Americans were especially concerned about wildfire, and along with Hispanic citizens, judged climate change a greater threat than the average. Asian residents concern about wildfire (65%) was above the countywide average (51%) and the Anglo community (46%).

Orange County’s race and ethnic makeup is highly diverse. The fastest growing demographic group is Asian Americans. The next largest minority group is Hispanics followed by Anglos (White alone). Asian Americans were 13 percent of the county population in 2000, 18 percent in the 2010 census and 22 percent now. The Anglo population dropped from 44 percent of the population in 2010 to 38 percent today. The Hispanic count is 34 percent today, up one percent from 2010.

The survey concerning wildfire was conducted for an association of Orange County fire agencies and conservation groups by Ciruli Associates with YouGov America. The survey of 1000 residents was fielded from July 20 to August 27, 2023. The proportions of the race/ethnic community in the survey were White/Anglo 41 percent, Hispanic/Latino 32 percent, and Asian/Pacific Islander 22 percent. The survey had a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.