Democrats Losing the Senate

2024 Senate ratings Sept 6, 2024 | Photo: Center for Politics

The latest polling averages indicate the Democrats are about to lose their one vote advantage in the U.S. Senate. Sabato’s Crystal Ball posts its September 6 map leaving Ohio’s Democratic seat a toss-up and shifting Montana into the “likely” Republican camp. Tim Sheehy has been ahead of incumbent Democrat Jon Tester by 5 points in the last 3 August polls. Republicans then would have 51 senators, Democrats 48 with Ohio the toss-up. Ohio’s incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown is in a very difficult re-elect with Bernie Moreno. Brown is slightly ahead in polling. Both states are likely to give their electoral votes to Donald Trump.

Colorado’s senate seat is up in 2026 and John Hickenlooper declared he will run one more race.

Is Johnston’s Tax in Trouble?

Mayor Mike Johnston | Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post

A rising number of voices have been speaking out against Denver’s soaring tax rates and specifically the timing and justification of Mayor Johnston’s half cent sales tax increase (raises $100 million per).

Some of the positions of caution or opposition are:

• Denver Post editorial said bad timing, already many new funds with surpluses.
• Two-thirds (64%) of Denver voters believe city taxes are “already high” and 35% of them say “way too high.” (Colorado Polling Institute, July 2024)
• City Councilman Kevin Flynn points to negative impact on residents and city’s affordability.
• Former Mayor Wellington Webb believes hospital tax (.34 of a cent) is a higher priority. Calls for delay.
• Businessman Walter Isenberg has concerns about taxes’ negative effect on business and employment.

Denver voters in recent years have said yes to most tax increases. The only “no” was the stock show arena property tax increase. Affordable housing is a high priority but the tax increases have piled up the last decade. Denver’s sales tax is now nearly 10 percent and becoming the highest in the metro area.

If the tax loses or even struggles in a narrow win, do the city council and Mayor take a message and manage priorities better within the current tax level?

RELATED:
Sales Tax Collection Falls Again 8/16/24
Denver Voters Inundated with Tax and Union Ballot Initiatives 8/12/24
Denver Health Takes Sales Tax Near Ten Percent 6/26/24

Ciruli Associates: 2024 Election Polling & Blogs

Vice President, Kamala Harris and Former President, Donald Trump
Photos: Grace Widyatmadja/NPR; Stephen Maturen/Getty Images

The election has more twists and turns than Independence Pass. But polling at the national and state level has never been more influential. My website, Ciruli.com, the Buzz, has been tracking the presidential polling since January. It was clear that Joe Biden was in serious trouble, losing the popular vote closely and most battleground states. It was worse after the June 27 debate.

It is also now clear that the polling, using the same methodologies and pollsters, have seen a Democratic revival. The new Harris/Walz ticket is ahead of Trump/Vance if only a point or two, in both the popular and a majority of battleground states. The projection of the electoral vote has also shifted to favor the Democrats, although both candidates are well short of the 270 needed to win. Linked are the 2024 blogs on election polls and the electoral votes’ estimates since July. Also, the UC Denver School of Public Affairs panels are linked.

Updates will be posted as I begin to present at election panels hosted by CU Denver and other venues.

POLLS:
Harris Takes the Lead 8/29/24
Harris Takes Over – Close Race 8/6/24
Biden Faces the End 7/22/24
Post-Debate Biden Drops - Loses Battleground States 7/16/24
Trump Confident, Dems Stressed 5/15/24
One Point Presidential Race 4/4/24
Biden Narrows Gap 2/27/24
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. Colorado Win Likely Cut in Half 2/14/24
Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is it Over? 1/3/24

ELECTORAL COUNT:
Reversal: Democrats Ahead in Electoral Vote 8/28/24
Democrats Go into Convention in Big Hole 7/23/24

CU DENVER PANELS:
The Rush to November 5 Begins 8/28/24
Election 2024 8/27/24

Election 2024: Colorado and Country at a Crossroads

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On September 6, the CU Denver School of Public Affairs will host a panel of Colorado political experts: Election 2024: Colorado and Country at a Crossroads. Floyd Ciruli, pollster and Senior Fellow, will moderate with commentators and party activists.

The First Friday Breakfast will consider the changes in the national race as they affect control of Congress and Colorado’s key Congressional and legislative races. The fate of the state’s most contentious ballot propositions will also be examined.

Floyd Ciruli, Panel Moderator Senior Fellow, CU Denver School of Public Affairs

Panel:
Sheila MacDonald, media commentator, Democratic political consultant, manager of candidate and issue campaigns
Dick Wadhams, media commentator, Channel 4 analyst, consultant, former Republican chair
Marianne Goodland, chief legislative reporter, Colorado Politics, president of the Denver Press Club

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend panel here.

“Election 2024: Colorado and Country at a Crossroads”
September 6, 2024 8:30 a.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200, Denver, Colorado

Harris Takes the Lead

Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on stage during a campaign event on August 6, 2024 in Philadelphia. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

In an extraordinary turnaround, Kamala Harris has surged into a close lead over Donald Trump in slightly over 30 days after becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee. President Joe Biden was behind two points on the date he left the race, July 21. In the month, Harris has picked a vice-president and delivered a well-regarded acceptance speech at a national convention with 26 million viewers. On August 29, she held a 2 point lead in the RCP average and 3 points in 538 (ABC News). Harris and Trump now split the battleground states, with Harris ahead in 2, Trump 3, and 2 tied. The aggregate battleground vote is tied at 47 percent each.

Robert Kennedy Jr. dropped his failed campaign effort and endorsed Trump on Friday, August 23. Prior to RFK Jr.'s switch, Harris was beating Trump by two points in 5 party tests including Kennedy. The effect of Kennedy and the Democratic convention bump is just beginning to be polled and assessed.

Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallup, and other credible polls.

The campaign has only about two months left, with some early voting starting in October. A debate is tentatively scheduled September 10 and Harris must deal with a press corps hungry for interviews but Democrats clearly have momentum and a fresh enthusiasm.

RELATED:
Harris Takes Over – Close Race 8/6/24
Biden Faces the End 7/22/24
Post-Debate Biden Drops-Loses Battleground States 7/16/24
Trump Confident, Dems Stressed 5/15/24
One Point Presidential Race 4/4/24
Biden Narrows Gap 2/27/24
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. Colorado Win Likely Cut in Half 2/14/24
Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is it Over? 1/3/24

Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on stage during a campaign event on August 6, 2024 in Philadelphia. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

The Rush to November 5 Begins

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

In an election that has more twists and turns than Independence Pass, the 2024 campaign enters its final two months. A series of panel discussions with Colorado's top political analysts and commentators starts September 6 with an 8:30 a.m. First Friday Breakfast panel. It will bring together Floyd Ciruli, Senior Fellow at the CU Denver School of Public Affairs moderating a panel of Colorado political experts.

Other panels are on:

• October 4 - First Friday Breakfast: Latinx Voters: Hold Sway
• October 11 - Afternoon event: The Colorado Ballot: Seismic Decisions
• October 25 - Afternoon event: Disinformation and the Perils of Election Administration
• November 8 - First Friday Breakfast: Election 2024: What Happened and What Lies Ahead

All events are held at

CU Denver School of Public Affairs
1380 Lawrence St., 2nd Floor
Denver, Colorado

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs' website for more information here.

RELATED
Election 2024: Colorado and Country at a Crossroads Aug 27, 2024
CU Denver School of Public Affairs Hosts Fall 2024 Election Program July 9, 2024

Reversal: Democrats Ahead in Electoral Vote

Vice President Harris and Democrats are now ahead of former President Donald Trump and Republicans 226 to 219 electoral votes with 93 rated toss-up. In Sabato's Crystal Ball latest analysis (August 20, 2024), the toss-up states are Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (18), Nevada (8), Arizona (11) and North Carolina (16). The race remains close but Harris has rapidly and significantly changed the electoral map. Polling can barely stay abreast with the frequent changes in the election environment. RealClearPolitics analysis still has Trump ahead 219 to 208 for Harris with 111 electoral votes to be decided.

Crystal Ball Electoral College rating

Sabato records a major reversal from 312 electoral votes in mid-July for Trump to 219 at the end of August, while Democrats climbed from 196 to 226. Both parties are short of the 270 needed to win but the Democrats now have a much better prospect. Sabato's next electoral map will be post-convention and could present more good news for the Democrats.

RELATED:
Democrats Go into Convention in Big Hole July 23, 2024

Election 2024: Colorado and Country at a Crossroads

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On September 6, the CU Denver School of Public Affairs will host a panel of Colorado political experts: Election 2024: Colorado and the Country at a Crossroads. Floyd Ciruli, pollster and Senior Fellow, will moderate with commentators and party activists Dick Wadhams, Republican, Sheila McDonald, Democrat, and reporter Marianne Goodland.

The First Friday Breakfast will consider the changes in the national race as they affect control of Congress and Colorado's key Congressional and legislative races. The fate of the state's most contentious ballot propositions will also be examined.

Election 2024: Colorado and Country at Crossroads sponsored by the UC Denver School of Public Affairs.

Floyd Ciruli, Panel Moderator Senior Fellow, CU Denver School of Public Affairs

Panel:
Sheila MacDonald, media commentator, Democratic political consultant, manager of candidate and issue campaigns
Dick Wadhams, media commentator, Channel 4 analyst, consultant, former Republican chair
Marianne Goodland, chief legislative reporter, Colorado Politics, president of the Denver Press Club

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs' website for more information here.

"Election 2024: Colorado and the Country at a Crossroads"
September 6, 2024 8:30 a.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200 Denver, Colorado

Sales Tax Collection Falls Again

For the first six months of 2024, Denver metro area sales tax revenue has fallen compared to last year. This is the second year of weak sales tax collections. In 2023 it was flat from the year before.

Cities are especially dependent on sales tax revenue. A number of them, especially Denver, have been rapidly increasing their sales tax for a myriad of community projects.

It is unclear the exact cause of the revenue fall off. Metro population growth slowed after the pandemic and, in fact some counties registered population loses. Affordability has been cited most often by metro area residents as their main economic complaint and a reason to leave. Also, the Denver area could be seeing some of the job growth slowdown reflected in national data guiding the Federal Reserve.

RELATED:
Denver Metro Sales Tax Revenue Declines June 24, 2024
Metro Denver Sales Tax Flattens Out March 13, 2024
Denver Metro Area Tax Revenue Slows Sharply October 2, 2023
Midpoint in the Year Sales Tax Revenue Roars In September 22, 2021

Was It a Coup? KHOW 630

U.S. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris raise their hands during an Independence Day celebration in Washington, U.S., July 4, 2024.
REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo

The debate about how Joe Biden came to his July 21 withdrawal continues. Was it an unjustified anti-democratic coup against Biden. Conspiracy theories abound. Even Donald Trump appears flummoxed and of course disappointed since he wanted Biden in the race.

In an interview with Ryan Schuiling on KHOW 630 we discussed Joe Biden's weekend withdrawal after the painful 24-day defense President Biden tried to make after his disastrous debate performance. My view was that Biden truly did not understand his performance had focused the narrative of the race on his major vulnerability – competence, and reinforced his age problem with voters.

Most important for Democrats were doubts about his ability to engage Donald Trump and conduct a winning campaign. While the problem was self-evident to pollsters and party elected officials and leaders, Biden, his family and top aids isolated and cherry-picked polling data to avoid the reality.

Facing a similar dire situation in 1952, Harry Truman only took 18 days after not winning the New Hampshire primary to withdraw and LBJ only needed 19 days in 1968. Biden created this crisis by pressing for reelection in spite of approval polls below 40 percent and consistently running behind Trump with his age and shaky performances cited as major handicaps to his campaign.

Kamala Harris was quickly accepted as the nominee because the party did not want to continue the chaos, especially after Trump's assassination attempt and the Republicans' generally successful convention.

The history of parties controlling the White House making a switch in nominees and winning the election is not good. Republican Presidents Eisenhower and Nixon followed Democrats Truman and LBJ. Harris will need to establish her own presidential image while initially inheriting Biden's polling numbers. But, with the age issue gone, Harris, focusing on women, people of color, and younger voters, may re-energize the Democrats.

RELATED:
Harris Takes Over – Close Race 8/6/24
Biden Faces the End 7/22/24
Post-Debate Biden Drops-Loses Battleground States 7/16/24
Trump Confident, Dems Stressed 5/15/24
One Point Presidential Race 4/4/24
Biden Narrows Gap 2/27/24
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. Colorado Win Likely Cut in Half 2/14/24
Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is it Over? 1/3/24

Denver Voters Inundated with Tax and Union Ballot Initiatives

As of August, nine ballot measures have been proposed in Denver and several, including another city sales tax increase for housing and a billion-dollar school bond initiative, are being prepared for introduction.

Denver's liberal politics and interest groups are flooding the city with tax increases, unionization proposals, cultural proposals such as bans of fur sales and a slaughterhouse.

Sample of Proposals
- Binding arbitration for fire department union
- Collective bargaining for city employees
- Denver Health sales tax increase
- Affordable housing sales tax increase (proposed)
- Denver Public School bond (proposed)

If all the taxes pass, Denver sales tax will be the highest among the metro area cities. In 2000, Denver gave 62 percent of its vote to the Democratic candidate for president (Al Gore) and 79 percent in 2020 (Joe Biden). Denver has become a liberal one-party city with little leadership that resists new taxes and regulations even if they could harm citizens cost of living and the city’s economy.

RELATED:
Denver Health Takes Sales Tax Near Ten Percent June 26, 2024
Denver Labor Leaders Propose More City Unions – Bad Timing Sept 8, 2011

Caraveo Moved to Toss-Up

Twotwofourtysix, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

The latest ratings of US House elections nationally by Virginia professor Larry Sabato's Center for Politics (Crystal Ball) shifted Rep. Yadira Caraveo in the 8th CD from Lean Democrat to the Toss-Up category.

The district's close balance in the 2020 Presidential election (4.5 points for Biden) and the narrow win in her 2022 inaugural run (1,642 fifth closest in county) were factors leading to the relabeling. Also, Republicans managed to avoid an election denial candidate in a primary and have a new state legislator, Gabe Evans.

The Crystal Ball also shifted the 3 CD from Lean to Likely to Republican. Jeff Hurd, the Republican nominee's primary win (41%) and the District's history of Republican partisan advantage in Presidential elections gave Hurd the lead against the hard campaigning, well-funded Adam Frisch.

Although most Republicans are glad Lauren Boebert left the 3 CD, Republicans in the 4th CD appear to accept her. She has been moved from Likely to a Safe Republican. The Democratic candidate is not well funded or known.

Sabato's Crystal Ball Colorado Congressional Seat Shifts
District	Candidate	Shift
3 CD	Hurd vs Frisch	Lean to Likely Republican
4 CD	Boebert vs Calvarese	Likely to Safe Republican
8 CD	Caraveo vs Evans	Lean Democrat to Toss-up
Source: Ciruli Associates 2024

Overall, Sabato's group believed control of the US House is close with a slight Republican advantage if they win the Presidential race.

RELATED:
Colorado Election Scan on Super Tuesday March 18, 2024

Harris Takes Over – Close Race

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event in Atlanta on July 30, 2024.
Photo: Elijah Nouvelage | Afp | Getty Images

Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the Presidential race July 21 on social media. Polls since then have shown Vice President and presumptive nominee Kamala Harris mostly inheriting Biden's polling numbers but with improvement. She's only about 1 point behind in popular vote and is tied in the 5-way third-party average. There is insufficient polling in battleground states as of August 5.

Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average down from RealClear Politics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallup, and other credible polls.

Several factors appear to be changing in the internal numbers with Harris's entry into the race.

• She's increased Democratic enthusiasm, especially among key constituents, women, voters of color, and voters under 40.
• Third party candidates Robert Kennedy Jr. has lost Democratic support but still appears to take some anti-vax votes from Donald Trump.
• She's moved abortion to the top-of-issue list to the disadvantage of Republicans.
• Her honeymoon reflecting the unity and energy which started with the announcement, is likely to culminate after the August 22 Democratic Convention with a polling bounce. Obviously, Republicans are working hard to suppress and dissipate it.
• The change of Democratic nominees has reframed the election from one the Democrats were losing possibly by a trifecta to a much closer race, including for control of the House and Senate.

RELATED:
Biden Faces the End 7/22/24
Post-Debate Biden Drops-Loses Battleground States 7/16/24
Trump Confident, Dems Stressed 5/15/24
One Point Presidential Race 4/4/24
Biden Narrows Gap 2/27/24
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. Colorado Win Likely Cut in Half 2/14/24
Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is it Over? 1/3/24

Presidents Quit – A History

President Lyndon B. Johnson is shown during his nationwide television broadcast from the White House on March 31, 1968. Bettmann/Bettmann Archive

Three Presidents have decided to withdraw from running for second terms since WWII, all Democrats. Their party conventions were in Chicago and two replacement nominees lost their elections; Stevenson in 1952 and Humphrey in 1968.

The losses reflected the difficult political circumstances the incumbents had fallen into. Both Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson were managing difficult wars and dealing with chaotic domestic politics with strikes, investigations, demonstrations and riots. Biden is dealing with wars (in Europe and the Middle East), inflation and a troublesome southern border.

All three had approval ratings below 40 percent. Both Truman and LBJ either lost or did poorly in the New Hampshire primary (early March at a time with few primaries) and doubted their nominations much less reelection.

Biden had secured his nomination in spite of doubts about his age and campaign ability. But a devastating bad debate performance reinforced by weak polls caused a revolt among top party leaders, elected officials and donors. Twenty-four days later he withdrew and endorsed his Vice President, Kamala Harris. Even though she is competing against a polarizing, controversial ex-president, she begins her campaign about where he was in the polls.

Will she be the exception and extend the Democrats hold on the presidency or follow the pattern?

RELATED:
Transition, Biden to Harris: KOA Morning Show August 1, 2024

Transition, Biden to Harris: KOA Morning Show

President Joe Biden pauses before he addresses the nation from the Oval Office of the White House in Washington on Wednesday about his decision to drop his Democratic presidential reelection bid. Photo: Evan Vucci/Pool/via AP

KOA's Marty and Jeana had questions about President Joe Biden's Oval Office speech (July 24), three days after his withdrawal; namely, where was the discussion of his mental ability? My comments follow:

Passing the Torch
The speech was enough for Democrats. They are pleased the 24 days of chaos have ended and the campaign against Donald Trump is back on track without the distraction of Biden's age.

Although Biden didn't specifically mention questions of competences he referenced age, saying that a new generation of leaders is more important today than experience. Biden said passing the torch was critical to saving democracy. Democrats did not consider the issue competence. They saw it as a losing campaign from early in the year becoming a landslide after the June 27 debate. The Party is thankful he made the decision; accolades flowed (approval of withdrawal was 87%) and the transition to Kamala Harris stated quick.

Polling Bounce
Biden has been behind Trump by two or more points all year, especially in battleground states, and enthusiasm for him was at a low ebb. Democrats hope Harris will energize women, young voters, people of color and independents. A couple of quick polls confirm the view that to start she mostly inherit Biden's position, i.e., a few points back, but has potential for upside that Biden didn't.

Trump Wanted Biden
Trump became Biden's strongest supporter. He believed he had the race won with Biden. Trump received an opinion bounce from assassination attempt and the Republican convention. But it was interrupted by Biden's announcement and the transition. Republicans are concerned about Harris's potential and have immediately gone on the attack. She's a radical liberal, dumb, a lunatic, she knew Biden was incompetent and hid it, etc., etc. Trump is not happy and still developing a line of attack—expect a fierce, negative campaign.

Transition to Harris
Finally, we discussed that Democrats are surprised and pleased by the fast and smooth transition to Harris. As Biden steps back, the 100-day Harris campaign to November has begun. Although there is some residual concern about her campaign skills, Democrats appear all in.

RELATED:
KOA Debate Interview July 2, 2024

Democrats Go into Convention in Big Hole

Vice President Harris will begin her campaign with President Biden’s political position. Sabato's Crystal Ball projects Biden with 196 electoral votes and Trump with 312 (July 18, 2024). CNN John King has Trump at 320. RealClearPolitics put it 325 Trump and 213 Biden.

By Sabato's Crystal Ball analysis, the toss-up states are battleground states: Minnesota (10), Virginia (13), Maine (2), New Hampshire (4) and Nebraska (1). According to Sabato leaning Republican today are: Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (18), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6).

Hypothetical Electoral College ratings via The Center for Politics

Democrats need to resolve their leadership crisis quickly and prepare for the August 19 convention in Chicago. Any benefit they gain from new candidates and convention drama will have a very large electoral hole to fill.

READ: If Biden Stays: A Glimpse into a Grim Electoral Future for Democrats

Biden Faces the End

US President Joe Biden boards Air Force One as he departs Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas, Nevada, on July 17, 2024. Photo: Kent Nishimura/AFP/Getty Images

Democratic Party leadership with supporting polls finally wore down President Biden’s resistance to stepping back and letting the Party designate a new nominee. Since the debate performance his fate has been set and his defense moving in a downward spiral.

Once Adam Schiff, the next California Senator and key ally of Speaker Emeritus Nancy Pelosi, said what most party leaders believe—the President has no credible path to win and will drag down Democrats in competitive House and Senate seats—the end was within sight.

Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average drawn from RealClear Politics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallup, and other credible polls.

The timing of the announcement was a surprise but needed to be speedy to both shape the narrative and prepare for a convention only 30 days away. Of course Biden will need to explain his deliberations and decision. But the data that he and his inner circle disputed or ignored since the June 27 debate became irrefutable and included losing the popular vote and the battlegrounds, a record low approval and just recently an AP poll showing a majority of Democrats wanted him to step down.

A likely Democratic Party position will be disappointment Biden won’t be able to lead it to victory, grateful for his 2020 win and four years of service, but pleased he let it go in an orderly fashion.

RELATED:
Post Debate Biden Drops - Loses Battleground States 7/16/24
Trump Confident, Dems Stressed 5/15/24
One Point Presidential Race 4/4/24
Biden Narrows Gap 2/27/24
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. Colorado Win Likely Cut in Half 2/14/24
Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is it Over? 1/3/24

Colorado to Add Abortion Rights to Constitution

Abortion rights supporters gathered on the state Capitol steps in Denver on Tuesday after a leaked draft opinion from the U.S. Supreme Court called for overturning Roe vs. Wade.
Photo: Hart Van Denburg/CPR News

Colorado joins 4 other states as of early July that have abortion rights measures on the ballot. Also, hosting measures are Florida, Maryland, Nevada, and South Dakota. Another five states are still in the ballot signature effort, including Arizona.

Since Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022, seven states have voted to defeat abortion bans or in favor of abortion rights in statewide measures, including red states such as Kansas, Kentucky, Montana and Ohio. This track record was the electoral backdrop that motivated Donald Trump to remove any language from the GOP platform that uses the federal government to ban abortion.

This year will be the first tests of abortion rights in presidential level turnout. Will conservative Republican turnout in red states help the anti-abortion position? Democrats, needless to say, hope for high Democratic and liberal turnout, to help their congressional and other candidates.

The Colorado constitutional amendment will add abortion rights protection to the constitution beyond existing statutory rights. It will also lift a ban on state payments for abortions, passed in 1984. Although it will need 55 percent, Colorado’s track record on protection abortion rights is overwhelming, having defeated bans in 2000, 2014, and 2020. Advocates also have $4 million for a campaign.

SEE: Where Abortion Rights Will (or Could) Be on the Ballot
Louis Jacobson, The Center for Politics, July 9,2024

Post Debate Biden Drops - Loses Battleground States

President Joe Biden speaks at a news conference following the NATO Summit in Washington, July 11, 2024. Photo: Susan Walsh/AP

President Biden’s poor debate performance has cost his campaign 3 points in the last two weeks. He was tied with Donald Trump in mid-June. On July 11, before this weekend’s assassination attempt Biden was facing an historic loss of the popular vote that Democrats haven’t faced since W. Bush beat John Kerry in 2004.

All six of the battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin now lean toward Trump, several by more than 4 points (Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia).

Biden must have at least 3, most likely Wisconsin (-2), Michigan (-1), and Pennsylvania (-4).

Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average drawn from RealClear Politics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallop, and other credible polls.

Although Biden and his allies have struggled to address the age issue, the Democrats fear of a triple sweep has kept pressure on Biden to surrender the nomination. The convention is now scheduled to start August 19 with the nomination vote on Wednesday.

The primary purpose of America’s political parties is to compete for political office. Facing a potential massive loss, especially to Trump and his MAGA Republican Party, has panicked Democratic elected officials and made it difficult for Biden to unite the party and shift attention to Trump. Especially difficult is that 75 or 85 percent of voters in two post-debate polls (NY Times/WSJ) believe he is too old for the presidency, including more than half of Democrats.

RELATED:
Trump Confident, Dems Stressed 5/15/24
One Point Presidential Race 4/4/24
Biden Narrows Gap 2/27/24
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. Colorado Win Likely Cut in Half 2/14/24
Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is it Over? 1/3/24

CU Denver School of Public Affairs Hosts Fall 2024 Election Program

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

Series of First Friday Panels Begins September 6

An intense 2024 campaign enters its final two months. Americans believe the future of democracy is at stake. Floyd Ciruli, pollster and Senior Fellow at the CU Denver School of Public Affairs will join a series of panels and discussions to highlight the tumultuous election environment.

The program starts September 6 with a First Friday Breakfast panel reviewing the status of the election nationally, especially as it relates to changes in control of the U.S. Senate and House. The panel will also examine Colorado’s key Congressional and legislative races, and the fate of its most contentious ballot propositions. Ciruli will moderate the panel that includes Colorado political experts.

Additional events during October will present panels on ballot propositions in the November election, the Hispanic vote and challenges for election administrators. On November 8, a post-election session will review and analyze what happened and what it will mean for future policy, especially for Colorado.

KOA Debate Interview

2024 Presidential Debate | Photo Al Jazeera

In a Friday morning post-presidential debate interview with KOA’s Marty and Jeana the topic was President Joe Biden’s poor debate performance and what the Democrats might do about it.

• The headlines since the debate ended have been devastating –
  • “halting performance”
  • “Democrats in panic”
  • “Biden’s poor showing”
  • “Biden “babbling and hoarse”
  • “Biden’s rough night”
    
    
  Those weren’t FOX News reports.
  
  
• In his biggest forum since the State of the Union, Biden needed to deal with the age issue (Gallup 59% voters believe he’s too old) and he failed spectacularly (51 million watched). Former President Trump just needed to stay in his lane and not repeat the poor performance in the first debate 4 years ago. He did it, even if filled with a torrent of false statements.
  
  
• The weekend will begin days of commentary and in the next two weeks the Biden campaign already struggling in the polls, especially in battleground states, could see a dip of several points.
  
  
• It is very difficult to change candidates. Biden has nearly 4,000 committed delegates, and even if he dropped out, an open convention would be chaotic and hold huge risks for the party.
  
  
• It is a challenge but as of today Democrats will try to minimize the damage and push ahead (“Anyone can have a bad night,” Governor Newsom). They may shake up the staff and assemble party leaders in show of continued support and unity. But there will be considerable drama as to Biden’s fate from now to the Chicago convention, August 19.
  
  

Ciruli Blog:
Questions From Belgium Journalist Watching Our Presidential Debate for First Time Oct 12, 2012
Biden Brings Relief and New Energy to the Democrats Oct 15, 2012
Second Debate – Spin Two Oct 18, 2012

Colorado Republican Establishment Is Back

Lauren Boebert | Photo Hart Van Denburg/CPR News

The victory of Republicans Hurd, Crank and Evans reflects an escape from the hold the Trump/MAGA forces have had over the party since 2020. Voices other than MAGA election deniers Dave Williams, Ron Hanks, Tina Peters, et al. are now being heard.

Although Boebert survived, she is a diminished force having had to abandon the voters in the 3rd CD and move to the 4th.

The vote in the 3rd and 5th Districts provides indicators of the challenges of the Republican winners. Hanks received 28 percent, which is one measure of the residual Boebert vote that Hurd must appeal to in the General Election. Boebert was predicted to win as the field filled up and she weathered the opening barrage of criticism. She received 44 percent of the vote with the remaining votes spread about the 5 opponents. She started with a host of advantages:

• Near universal name identification
• 10 to 1 advantage in money over any opponent
• Identity with MAGA base
• Endorsement of former President Trump and Speaker Johnson
• 5 opponents

Ciruli Blog:
Don’t Write Boebert’s Obit March 20, 2024
Battle Between Republicans: MAGA vs Establishment March 25, 2024

Primary Election on 630 KHOW Radio

Jeff Crank | Photo: Jerilee Bennett, The Gazette

The drama of Colorado 2024 primary was not due to surprise but the definitive fashion the state electorate said no to extreme elements of both parties.

In two 630 KHOW interviews with Ryan Schuiling, the Congressional races were reviewed before and after results.

• Most observers predicted Jeff Hurd and Jeff Crank would win their respective primaries. But the crushing win in the 5th CD against GOP State Party Chair Dave Williams was a formidable blow against the MAGA wing of the party. He endorsed candidates opposing Hurd and Crank (against party norms) and they joined ten state legislative candidates he endorsed that also lost.
• Lauren Boebert won the six-person primary with 43 percent of the state and will no doubt go on to win the general election. Her success roughly tracks Trump’s and will be dependent upon his.
• The moderate and more establishment wings of both parties benefited but the GOP especially now has new leaders who may restore its competitiveness after the massive losses in 2018.

RELATED:
Colorado Primary to See New Republican Team: Traditional vs. MAGA

Denver Health Takes Sales Tax Near Ten Percent

Denver Health Medical Center | Photo by Katie Wood/Denver Post

Sales tax in Denver is rapidly approaching 10 percent of the sale price. It currently stands at 8.81 percent, reflecting state, special districts, and city taxes.

Several new sales taxes are being proposed with the largest from Denver Health of .34 percent, which would raise Denver to 9.15, making it the highest sales tax city in the Denver metro area. The new rate would jump to 9.61 if all new taxes were approved.

The Metro area sales tax collections have been flat for a year and are now declining, reflecting a falloff in population growth and economic activity. Recent polls show when the public is asked, affordability is a major complaint about living in Denver, along with inflation. Affordability is, in fact, one of the main reasons people cite for moving out of Denver. Taxes affect the affordability of an area and sales taxes have a negative impact on local consumers and can be especially burdensome on the low-income population.

Denver has been rapidly raising its sales tax rate the last five years from 3.6 percent in 2018 to the 4.81 today, with significant increase for climate programs, homelessness, college scholarships, food security, mental health and parks.

Will Denver voters finally say no to new taxes?

RELATED
Denver Metro Sales Tax Revenue Declines June 24, 2024

Denver Metro Sales Tax Revenue Declines

The Denver metro area sales tax revenue stopped increasing in 2023 after several years of robust growth. As of the first four months of this year, metro sales tax revenue has declined half a percent.

State government will be affected since the seven county Denver metro area represents more than half of Colorado’s population and economic activity.

RELATED:
Metro Denver Sales Tax Flattens Out March 13, 2024
Denver Metro Area Tax Revenue Slows Sharply October 2, 2023
Midpoint in the Year Sales Tax Revenue Roars In September 22, 2021

Presidential Race Dead Heat Pre-Debate

CNN to host 2024 Election Presidential Debate June 27

President Biden has closed the popular vote race with Donald Trump but is still behind when third party candidates are included and in battleground states as they enter the June 27 debate.

Third-party candidates now get 10 percent, down a couple of points since January and a likely trajectory as the race gets closer to November. RFK Jr. remains the pack leader with 7 points. Biden is behind in four battleground states and even in Michigan and Wisconsin. He’s close in Pennsylvania (down 2 points).

Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average drawn from RealClear Politics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallop, and other credible polls.

If the election was today, Biden would most likely lose. The current polling reflects about a 4 to 5 point decline in Biden’s position compared to November 2020 when he won the national vote by 4 points (51% to 47%) and all six of the battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

RELATED:
Trump Confident, Dems Stressed 5/15/24
One Point Presidential Race 4/4/24
Biden Narrows Gap 2/27/24
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. Colorado Win Likely Cut in Half 2/14/24
Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is It Over? 1/3/24

Not Expecting Much Change in Colorado State Legislature

Colorado State Capitol | Photo: Library of Congress Carol Highsmith

Democrats are safe in both the House (super majority) and Senate (near super majority). Very little or no partisan movement is expected. But there will be a fight to gain or stop super majority. In Senate, Republicans must hold their 12 seats to stop Democrats from super majority (23-12). They have to gain 3 seats in House to end Democrats super majority (46-19), not likely.

Context

• Republican state chair running for Congress. Poor job of state legislative recruiting, not much fundraising.
• Democrats have primary won with far left House members but safe seats.
• Action this year is in Congressional races with three Republican open seats (primaries between MAGA and Establishment).
• Many ballot propositions reflecting tax and cultural battles left over from legislature.

READ: The Center for Politics - 2024’s Battleground State Legislative Chambers

Colorado Primary to See New Republican Team: Traditional vs. MAGA

Twotwofourtysix, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

The June 25 Colorado primary will settle the contest between Colorado’s traditional and historically successful Republican Party and the new Donald Trump-inspired MAGA wing. Early predictions now confirmed by polling and funding were that the traditional wing would have their strongest odds in the Western Slope 3rd district with Jeff Hurd and the Colorado Springs 5th district with Jeff Crank. A recent poll also supported the expectation Lauren Boebert will survive her seat switch and gain a win in the six-person 4th CD primary.

The three questions raised by Colorado’s surprising three open Republican congressional seats at the start of the year were:

1. Who would dominate the Republican primaries – conservative candidates from the mainstream Republican Party or MAGA? It appears two traditional, one MAGA.
   • 3rd Jeff Hurd (Ron Hanks)
   • 4th Lauren Boebert (?)
   • 5th Jeff Crank (Dave Williams)
2. Would Boebert survive shift from 3rd CD (she was losing after 2 terms) to 4th CD. She’s ahead of field.
3. Can a Democrat win any of the races? Uphill, but Hurd most vulnerable in less Republican 3rd CD against Democrat Adam Frisch who has millions of anti-Boebert dollars to spend.

RELATED:
Colorado Surprise: Congressional Battleground 1/30/24
Don’t Write Boebert’s Obit 3/20/24
Battle Between Republicans: MAGA vs Establishment 3/25/24
Three Open Colorado Seats – Could the Democrats Win One? 4/10/24

Americans Divided on Banning Sleeping in Public Spaces

Denver Mayor Mike Johnston visits homeless encampment
Photo: Kathryn Scott, The Denver Post

Although the public, especially in urban areas lists homelessness as one of their top concerns, they are divided on one of the main strategies cities use to manage the problem – namely a ban of sleeping in public space. A new Marquette Law School Poll on recent Supreme Court oral arguments found that Americans were divided 47 percent in support of a city being able to ban sleeping, in public space, and 36 percent opposed.

As expected, partisans disagreed. Only about a third of Democrats (36%) supported a ban whereas 63 percent of Republicans were in support.

But the biggest gap in opinions was seen between under and over 30 years old. More than half (58%) of Generation Z opposed a sleeping ban but among older Americans (60 years old plus), 59 percent support a ban and only a quarter (23%) oppose.

The challenge for urban Democratic leaders is the public’s demand to address homeless and the street population but the resistance of young Democratic voters to use a public sleeping space ban as a tool.

Western Leaders Face Unhappy Public

Argentina's President Javier Milei speaks during a rally organised by the Spanish far-right Vox party ahead of the European elections, with various far-right leaders, in Madrid, Spain, May 19, 2024. REUTERS/Ana Beltran

With rare exceptions the public in democratic countries are unhappy with their top elected leaders. The few leaders with more approval than disapproval in a new Morning Consult poll in nominally democratic countries are populists in India, Narendra Modi, Argentina, Javier Milei, and Mexico, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

Milei, the Argentine anarcho-capitalist who most recently insulted the Prime Minister of Spain and his wife, continues to command public favor by providing entertainment and nationalism in a crisis-ridden country.

As embattled as President Biden is, he has the highest approval among US allies and Western European democracies. At 39 percent, he exceeds Scholz in Germany (26%), Sunek in the UK (25%), Macron in France (23%) and Kishida in Japan (15%). Centrist leaders are facing dour electorates and populist opponents.

Third Parties Could Have Big Impact in 2024

Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. kicks off petition drive to get on Colorado ballot at Aurora rally | Photo: Ernest Luning/Colorado Politics

National polls and history show that when the major parties nominate two unpopular presidential candidates, third parties become more attractive and can make a difference in the electoral vote. In 2016, third parties received nearly 6 million votes. In the three most closely contested states, the liberal third party candidate received more votes than Clinton lost by. Third parties were held to 2 percent nationwide in 2020 and 3 percent in Colorado (see table below). But they have 14 percent of the current national polling average (RealClearPolitics). RJK Jr. leads with 10 percent.

Third party candidates represent a serious challenge to Biden, especially in battleground states such as Arizona and North Carolina. The first significant challenge a third party must overcome is ballot access. The Green Party has access to most states’ ballots.

Although RFK Jr. may get on the Colorado ballot, the state is not likely have a serious presidential contest. But, with a 48 percent unaffiliated voter registration, a record number of minor parties (8) attracting a fragmented electorate and a history of voter independence demonstrated in 1992 when Ross Perot received 23 percent of the vote, a third party candidate could expect considerable support. In the recent Super Tuesday primary, the two major party frontrunners lost a total of two-fifths of their fellow partisans (33% for Haley and 8% uncommitted).

Waiting for the Federal Reserve

Markets shed points off their highs in late March. The DOW closed at 39,282, or up 5.6 percent on March 28, then sank more than 1,400 points through April but recovered by mid-May to nearly touch 40,000 at 39,908, or up 5.9 percent.

Fed Chair Powell and his board are not cutting interest rates but after the May meeting lower price pressure and a strong sense of a soft landing, the market was greatly relieved. Three rate cuts were expected beginning in June. Now, the market will be pleased with one before year end. However, market watchers are still optimistic and predict an up-DOW/year of 9 percent. Notice the tech heavy NAZ and broad S&P index are up nearly two times the DOW for the year.

The positive viewpoint reflected the amazing resilience of an economy that has faced a surge of post-pandemic inflation, aggressive rate-hiking and geopolitical turmoil from two wars and two hostile great powers. In spite of this, the GDP is up, consumer spending is strong, and unemployment is down.

Some observers believe US stocks are overvalued, especially technology and the US is heading for a major slowdown with a market dip. But Jamie Dimon observes investment money from around the world believes the American market remains the safest, and its top companies are worth the pricey valuations.

RELATED:
Bull Market Continues to Run (February 29, 2024)

Nederland Repeals Rights of Nature Resolution as Harmful to Water Security

Nederland diverts drinking water from Middle Boulder Creek. (Town of Nederland photo)

Gary Wockner (formerly Save the Poudre River, Save the Colorado, and now Save the World’s Rivers) is not happy. One of his first “rights of nature” towns, Nederland, with “guardians” appointed, has repealed the resolution because it is being used in ways that could jeopardize the town’s water security. The repeal is a major setback as Nederland was a high profile victory for the movement and the repeal is receiving major coverage in environmental press.

Michael Booth’s report of the controversy provides considerable evidence of the deceptive arguments made to local municipalities by advocates when campaigning for the resolutions. (Colorado Sun May 7, 2024, also Inside Climate News 5-7-24-Kate Surma and NPR Northern Colorado 5-9-24, Michael Lyle)

The so-called guardians said they just provide watershed information and are not policymakers. But Wockner made clear that he “fights dams”, and will do so regardless of the Town of Nederland’s interests or policy preferences. Mayor Giblin was an articulate advocate for the town’s interest in protecting its water rights and option for water storage. He pointed out that Wockner and Save the World’s Rivers filed legal objections against numerous projects, saying “I have major concern with an outside organization fighting to dictate conditions to local communities in our efforts to secure our water rights.”

Several other Colorado towns and cities have adopted or have been solicited to adopt Right of Nature resolutions. They should consider the Nederland experience.

READ:

• Nederland repeals “rights of nature” for watersheds to better pursue new dam (Colorado Sun)


• A Town Board in Colorado Repeals Rights of Nature Resolutions (Inside Climate News)


• Nederland officials vote to repeal 'rights of nature' river conservation initiative (KUNC)


• Nederland CO repeals “rights of nature” in favor of reservoir (Western Water)


• Colorado Town Learns the Harm Caused by Granting Rights to Nature (Humniaze Center)

Trump Confident, Dems Stressed

Photograph by Philip Montgomery for TIME

Six months out, Donald Trump and his campaign appear confident and Democrats increasingly stressed. Trump’s ebullient mood was showcased in his Time Magazine interview where he described his aggressive, authoritarian initiatives for the next term. Democrat nervousness is highlighted by the Administration trying to lock in Biden Presidential executive orders and Beltway cocktail chatter on countries to move to.

Polls are producing the current Democratic gloom. Joe Biden’s State of the Union address produced a brief surge, but the national polls are now deadlocked with little movement. Democrats’ main problem is the electoral college. Biden is losing most of the battleground states. Out of seven, Biden is only close in three.

Also ominous is Biden’s trailing Trump in trust to handle key issues such as the economy 46% to 32% (see table), inflation 44% to 30%, crime 41% to 33% and immigration 47% to 35%. Biden wins abortion 41% to 29% but it was judged less important. (ABC News poll Gary Langer)

Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average drawn from RealClear Politics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallop, and other credible polls.

There are no credible national political analysts who believe Biden is on a winning trajectory. As Peggy Noonan opined in the WSJ on Saturday, “Mr. Trump is ahead in most if not all of the battleground states, and I’m struck by the number of political operatives, veterans and thinkers now asking, honestly, if there is anything the president can do to pull it out.” (WSJ 5-12-24)