Australians Join Canadians Saying No to Trump

People queue outside the Australian High Commission in London to vote in the Australian federal election, Friday, May 2, 2025. | Photo: Kirsty Wigglesworth/AP

In the second election in two weeks, voters of a democratic ally of the US reject the Donald Trump-sounding conservative candidate. In both Australia and Canada, the liberal government was behind in its reelection bid and in both countries they surged in the lead after Trump’s hostile rhetoric toward allies accompanied the Liberation Day tariffs.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese increasing his one-seat majority in the lower house of parliament to 10 seats was considered a landslide. His opening comment on Trump’s tariffs was, “This is not the act of a friend.” Peter Dalton, the conservative leader known as a hard right partisan simply could not shake his Trump identity. It took down his party.

Conservative leaders in both countries lost their own seats in parliament.

This is another setback for President Trump’s strategy to promote far right parties and candidates led by Vice President JD Vance and supported by podcaster Steve Bannon. Are Congressional Republicans listening? Trump has taken down two MAGA-like clones for two liberal incumbents in spite of their own inflation and sluggish economies.

Mid-Term Carnage

Trump and Johnson in Miami, Florida. Photo: REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo

Are Donald Trump’s tariffs and shock & awe about to produce a record loss for House Republicans? The mid-term election after a President’s term is considered a referendum on the administration’s performance in its first two years. It is usually difficult with a 26-seat average loss. There have been five exceptionally big losses of more than 40 seats since 1960.

Colorado County Commissioners Meet in Era of Austerity

Colorado State Capital | Photo: I, Morcheeba, via Wikimedia Commons

After a quarter century of steady population growth adding two Congressional Districts, Colorado is facing a significant slowdown. Colorado County Commissioners, meeting in their statewide convention on June 3, 2025, will assess the challenges.

As I said to the Metro Mayors Caucus in January, four days after President Trump’s inauguration in what now sounds like an understatement,

“As the new Trump Administration begins, Colorado’s relationship with Washington will change at the same time its population growth, economy, and fiscal health is being challenged.”

Colorado Counties Inc. (CCI) is a statewide association that assists counties concerning state legislation, federal relations and other local government policies. They provide training and data for commissioners. While this year’s budget shortfalls are dominant, Colorado is approaching an important election in 2026 for statewide and local offices. I will discuss the challenging political environment.

CCI officers are:

Scott Weaver	Yuma County
Lesley Dahlkemper	Jefferson County
Kristen Stephens	Larimer County
Wendell Koontz	Delta County
Tom Hass	Las Animas County
Merrit Linke	Grand County
Connie Warren-Gully	Arapahoe County
Steve O’Dosorio	Adams County
Executive Director	Kelly Flenniken

Metro Denver Sales Tax Revenue Flat Again

Both the Denver Metro area and the state of Colorado are dealing with tax revenue shortfalls causing government budget cuts. For the second year sales tax revenue in the Denver metro area is flat while municipal costs are up.

In the brief recession in 2020 due to the pandemic lockdown, sales tax revenue decreased. If the U.S. faces another recession in 2025, state, county, city budgets will be squeezed further especially given the sudden pull back in federal expenditures.

RELATED:
Sales Tax Collection Falls Again August 16, 2024
Sales Tax Recession November 14, 2024

At 100 Days Trump’s Approval Craters. Political Gravity Reasserts Itself.

President Trump signs a series of executive orders at the White House on Jan. 20. Photo: Jabin Botsford /The Washington Post via Getty Images

Donald Trump began his presidency with extreme optimism based on having won a second term in spite of Democrats and the liberal establishments’ best efforts. After winning the popular vote and starting with a higher polling approval than the first term, he and his team appeared to believe they could defy political gravity.

His plan of “Shock & Awe,” rushed to create unstoppable momentum. Unfortunately for President Trump, at the 100-day mark political gravity has kicked in; the headlines from the latest polls are terrible.

• CNN Poll: Trump’s approval at 100 days lower than any president in at least seven decades (43% approve / 57% disapprove). CNN 4/27/25
• President’s approval rating sinks as Americans criticize his major policies, polls find (39% approve / 55% disapprove). Washington Post 4/27/25
• Trump’s approval rating has been falling steadily, polling average shows (42% approve / 54% disapprove). New York Times 4/26/25

The Buzz’s National Dashboard has been tracking his approval, which went negative on March 14 and now is 7 points down in the RCP average.

Guardrails Punish Trump

President Volodymyr Zelensky with President Trump in the Oval Office
Photo: Doug Mills/The New York Times

President Trump at the 100-day mark in his administration hits guardrails that are damaging him politically. On January 24, four days after Trump’s inauguration, the Buzz established five guardrails to watch that would serve as measures of his government’s performance. They contain data that is hard to ignore.

His approval ratings are across the board bad. Overall job approval went from 49 percent after the inauguration to 45 percent today and from a net 6 percent positive to a net 7 percent negative.

Importantly, he is losing his economic credibility with the Dow shaving off more than 4,000 points after it had jumped to 44850 eight days after the inauguration in anticipation of tax cuts and deregulation. But near universal criticism both in the U.S. and abroad that tariffs will cause inflation and possibly a recession has damaged his reputation. Trump’s economic approval is now under water by 13 points and foreign policy, the same. His rating and handling inflation is worse at a negative 20 points. Even immigration, his erstwhile strongest issue, is now one point negative.

A host of new polls at Trump’s 100-day mark show that he has lost the modest public support he had. James Carville was right – Trump would collapse, maybe quicker than even he anticipated. Or as some might say, “He doesn’t have the cards.”

The First American Ally Says No to Trump

Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney in Ottawa April 29, 2025.
Photo: REUTERS/Jennifer Gauthier

In Donald Trump’s first term, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and others would argue America First was not isolationist and did not mean America alone. No one claims that today. The voters in Canada, one of America’s closest allies, just rejected Trump’s caustic comments on the “51st state” and his tariffs. I suspect a majority of voters throughout the western alliance would have the same view.

Mark Carney won the Canadian Prime Ministership with a near majority for his own liberal party after being behind conservatives by 2 to 1 only three months ago.

This will be Trump’s first 100-day election defeat and could portend tougher trade negotiations as governments begin to process Trump’s deep unpopularity. Even his international right wing/populist nationalists may disengage from the Trump bandwagon. This is a setback for the ambitions of J.D. Vance and Steve Bannon.

The Buzz Tracks Trump’s Political Decline

President Donald Trump holds up a chart of reciprocal tariffs chart
Photo: Chip Somodevilla Getty Images

The Buzz has posted nine blogs since President Donald Trump’s January 20 inauguration, anticipating that in the first 100 days there would likely be some movement in public opinion along with the rush of policy initiatives and changes people expected. Of course, “Shock & Awe” was a new phenomenon, a type of blitzkrieg on the DC political establishment.

Initially, it appeared to overwhelm most resistance but slowly opposition began to build and today public opinion has moved decisively against Trump, and much of his agenda. The Buzz posts follow:

Ciruli Associates Buzz
Five Guardrails around Trump 1/24/25
Will Trade War, Deportations & Funding Freeze Hit the Guardrails? 2/14/25
Shock & Awe Begins to Move the Polls 2/26/25
Trump Scrapes the Guardrails 2/28/25
Trump’s Negatives Grow 3/10/25
Trump’s Approval Eclipsed-National Dashboard 3/20/25
How Low Can Trump Go 3/28/25
Signal Gate: What We Learned 4/7/25
Trump, Tariffs & the Crash 4/10/25

Can Democrats Take Back the 8th Congressional District?

Democratic U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo of Thornton, left, faces a challenge from Republican state Rep. Gabe Evans of Fort Lupton in Colorado’s tossup 8th Congressional District race. (Chase Woodruff/Colorado Newsline)

Colorado Republicans' most important task is to hold the newly created and newly won 8th Congressional District. It is now back in play. Gabe Evans, who won a close race against a weak Democratic incumbent, could see a backlash next year against Trump, similar to the party’s wipeout in 2018 when Democrats won all statewide Constitutional offices and a new Congressional seat – Jason Crow.

Evans is a Trump man and his district will have the full attention of Speaker Mike Johnson. Repeat Democratic candidate Yadira Caraveo, with high name recognition, believes that 2026 will be more favorable to her than 2024. However, she faces skepticism within her own party, with some Democrats criticizing her past performance and preferring a more aggressive candidate for a high-stakes race against Trump’s influence.

Already in the race is Manny Rutinel, a young progressive Democrat who claims to have raised $1 million and is very good at attracting media attention.

The 8th District was intentionally designed to be competitive, and if the new Trump economy dominates the race, Evans could be in trouble.

The 2026 Colorado Election Season Starts

The 2026 election campaign for Colorado’s top political jobs revved up with the long primed announcement of 14-year incumbent U.S. Senator Michael Bennet entering the Democratic primary for governor. Already announced Democratic Attorney General Phil Weiser immediately countered that Bennet was needed in D.C. to fight the Trump administration. What’s he doing in Colorado?

Colorado’s other Senator John Hickenlooper plans to run for reelection. Both Hickenlooper and Bennet, as senior legislators of a moderate sensibility, are dealing with the same challenge – a party that wants more fight out of its D.C. leaders. Or, as Bennet was told at a recent raucous voter town hall, “Step up or step aside.”

Democrats tend to start early given that in recent years winning the primary has been tantamount to election. Republicans have selected some new party officers more interested in winning than MAGA purity, but after President Trump’s 80 plus day run of executive orders and policy pronouncements, he is still the dominant image of the party – a problem in Colorado. Primary candidates will be judged by their fidelity to Trump and his agenda on a scale that tilts very much toward Trump.

Although both Hickenlooper and Bennet failed in their presidential nomination road show in 2019, they both have major advantages in their upcoming races. Hickenlooper’s slightly off-kilter personality has been a political winner in Colorado since his 2003 Denver mayoral victory. He will have endorsements and money, so age and moderation are unlikely to derail his effort to retire from the Senate in 2032 at 80. Bennet has already gathered the state’s top Democratic political endorsement (Neguse, Crow, Hickenlooper) and will likely attract all the funding he needs.

Advance Colorado Takes on Sanctuary Cities

From left: Denver Mayor Michael Johnston, Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu and David J. Bier, Director of Immigration Studies at the Cato Institute, are sworn in during a House Oversight and Government Reform Committee hearing on sanctuary cities' policies at the U.S. Capitol on March 5, 2025, in Washington, D.C.
Alex Wong / Getty Images

Ballot Issues Pull Colorado to Right

President Trump is threatening so-called Sanctuary Cities on his media platform, Truth Social.

“No more Sanctuary Cities! They protect the Criminals, not the Victims. They are disgracing our Country, and are being mocked all over the World.”

“Working on papers to withhold all Federal Funding for any City or State that allows these Death Traps to exist!!!”

Given the chaos the administration has caused in its first 80 days, cities and states vulnerable to the sanctuary city label such as Denver, and possibly Colorado, should be concerned about federal funding flows.

But an even larger problem for Colorado’s immigrant rights advocates is Advance Colorado, an influential Colorado-based political action committee with a proposed ballot initiative that would limit funding for undocumented immigrants and require local police authorities to check the immigration status of certain criminal suspects such as those charged with violent crime and having prior felony convictions.

Colorado may appear a “blue” state in terms of its voting for partisan offices, legislation and the policies of many cities, but in fact the state frequently votes “red,” for example, on initiatives that take a conservative position on hot button issues such as crime. In the 2024 statewide ballot election, initiatives related to a tougher position on criminal law enforcement and punishment won easily.

Some facts about Advance Colorado:

1. Ballot issues are the primary threat restraining liberal forces in the state legislature. Governor Polis often uses the group’s specific and implied threats as a restraint on his party-related to:
   • environmental issues
   • tax issues
   • labor/union issues
2. Advance Colorado’s ballot strategy has the benefit of being well funded, mostly unreported and with high profile professional leadership.

READ
After Failures in the Courts, the GOP Is Threatening Sanctuary City Mayors Truthout, March 7, 2025
How Denver and Nearby Cities Are Responding to ICE Westword, February 19, 2025

Brian Vogt Transformed the Gardens

Brian Vogt photo: Monarch Society

When Brian Vogt began as director of the Denver Botanic Gardens in 2007, the attendance was below half a million visitors a year. In 2024, the last year before his passing, attendance exceeded 1.4 million.

Brian transformed the modest but well-cared-for gardens into a regional asset that millions appreciate with a large satellite park in Arapahoe County and new, expanded, and upgraded facilities on the main campus in the heart of Denver at Cheesman Park.

Under Brian’s leadership, the Gardens hosted major art shows, for example, the Chihuly Glass, and has a regular schedule of summer concerts and music in its natural amphitheater.

His enthusiasm and dedication to making the Denver Botanic Gardens a people’s space will be missed. His life work is an enormous legacy for the Denver region.

Trump, Tariffs, and the Crash

President Donald Trump holds up a chart of reciprocal tariffs chart
Photo: Chip Somodevilla Getty Images

It took Joe Biden until August of 2021, a full 7 months into his term, to lose his approval majority. After the Afghanistan withdrawal, he never came even close to closing the negative gap between the public disapproval and approval. He had failed on his claimed expertise, managing foreign policy.

Donald Trump first crossed into negative approval territory on March 14. It followed the wild first 53 days into the Administration, but April 2 “Liberation Day” is likely to be more like Biden’s chaos and pain than a celebration. Approval of his economic performance is a negative 10 points. If the public concludes Trump is not good for the economy, his claimed area of expertise, he and his party will be in serious political jeopardy.

After April 2, his approval went from 1 point down to 4 in a matter of days, while all the major market indexes passed from correction territory (down 10% from their peak) to at or near bear markets (down 20%). Trump was president in the last market crash of March 2020 as business activity began closing due to the pandemic. The economy then went into a brief recession. The odds of a slowdown in economic growth and recession have grown dramatically in the last week, in spite of the tariff pause.

The National Dashboard is a Buzz platform showing the state of public opinion for the presidential approval. It tracks key indicators on the economy, direction of the country, and competition for the U.S. House of Representatives. It primarily uses RealClearPolitics (RCP) but makes comparisons to Gallup and other polls, as reported in Opinion Today.

RELATED:
Trump Starts at Record Low Feb 13, 2017
Trump Approval Weak, But Better on Economy Than Foreign Policy Feb 22, 2017

Signal Gate: What We Learned

2017 (left) and 2025 (right)
Photos: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters and Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Five observations about Trump’s 2025 Administration were highlighted by the media and others from Signal Gate. First, although there may be mostly new players in the Trump Oval office, the show is still as chaotic and amateurish as 2017.

• Stephen Miller as the chief loyalist has the final word on Trump think – “The President was clear: green light” was his final comment.
• Vance will cross Trump to push his view. In this case, no benefits for Europe. “I just hate bailing out Europe again.”
• Contrast and criticism of Biden is important for policy and messaging. “Biden failed, Biden cratered.”
• If mistakes are made, attack the media: Goldberg gets Woodward and Bernstein award.

Signal Gate will make a contribution to President Trump’s approval about 70 days into the new Administration. As of April 1, he is down two points in approval since the inauguration; 2 points, year to date, in the Dow; 5 points in the S & P, and 10 points in the NAZ. Republicans’ most serious challenge today is their slim House majority. Pulling the Elise Stefanik nomination as UN Ambassador was a “tell” that Trump and Speaker Johnson are concerned. The Wisconsin Democratic win and Republican underperformance in Florida confirm their concern.

NISP Is on the Move

Glade Rendering, Northern Water

After more than 20 years, the Northern Integrated Supply Project (NISP) has cleared a final litigation hurdle and can accelerate already-begun construction.

In 2005, Ciruli Associates conducted the first of several opinion surveys in the NISP service area of Larimer, northern Boulder, Weld, and Morgan counties. The public was highly supportive of the project and its goals of securing water for the municipalities and other providers.

Today, the project is estimated to cost $2 billion, paid for by water users. In 2005, the estimated cost was less than half a billion dollars. The inflation cost of construction delay, environmental studies, mitigation, and finally litigation more than tripled the budget.

To the extent project delays are reduced, the federal government would be doing a great service for citizens in arid regions. But for now, congratulations to the many water leaders and managers that brought this project to this successful point. All of Colorado can celebrate as another water project joins the list of successful projects completed in the 21st century.

RELATED:
Congratulations to Northern Water Dec 20, 2022
Protecting Colorado’s Water Jan 6, 2022

How Low Can Trump Go?

From left, U.S. National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images/File

Donald Trump has never been a popular president. At the beginning of his first term, he had a record low approval after a “poorly rated” transition (Ciruli blog, 2-13-17). He started with a 40 percent approval and 45 disapproval which after three weeks became 50 percent (RTC average). Gallup pointed out Trump was the first president since approval polling began (1953, Eisenhower) for start-up approval to be below 50 percent.

His four-year average approval, as recorded by Gallup, was 41 percent with 55 percent disapproval. His approval was in a steady and narrow range with a low ceiling (49%) and a solid 35% floor. On his exit from the White House in 2021, he was at the floor in terms of public approbation.(Ciruli blog,1-20-21)

After a more than a two-month fight against the transition of power culminating in the January 6 riot at the US Capitol, Trump’s approval rating from numerous national polls was in the 30’s:

• Gallup – Trump approval 34%
• RCP – Trump approval 39%, disapproval 57%
• 538 – Trump approval 38%, disapproval 58%

Although his starting approval in 2025 for the second term was higher for him, it was still low and met a surging disapproval that signaled the end of the honeymoon as his negative rating exceeded the positive 53 days (March 14) into the new administration.(Ciruli blog,3-20-25)

• January 20 – RCP / 538 – Trump approval 50% and disapproval 43%
• March 14 – RCP approval 47% (down 3) and disapproval 48% (up 5)

Trump is unlikely to be approved by a majority of Americans during the rest of his term if it flows as the first 53 days, and his negatives could rise above 55 percent. At that point, Trump begins to lose his many Republican “friends” in the House.

RELATED:
Trump Starts at Record Low February 13, 2017
Trump Leaves Office With Record Disapproval January 20, 2021
Trump’s Approval Eclipsed – National Dashboard March 20, 2025

Citizens of the West – Alan Simpson RIP

In 1984, Senator Simpson was among the House and Senate conferees on an immigration reform bill. With him, from left, were Senator Edward M. Kennedy and Representatives Romano Mazzoli of Kentucky, Hamilton Fish of New York and Peter Rodino of New Jersey. Photo: Ira Schwarz/Associated Press

In 1990, Alan K. Simpson, former U.S. Senator from Wyoming, was inducted into the Citizens of the West honor roll for representing the ideals and spirit of the Rocky Mountains West. Simpson, known for his wit and bipartisan spirit, worked across party lines with his House counterpart, Romano Mazzoli (D-Ky), and passed the last comprehensive border bill, which President Reagan signed in 1986.

He was the other Colorado Senator on many issues. He passed on March 14 and will be missed.

“In Washington, D.C., those who travel the high road of humility are not bothered by heavy traffic.”

When We Help Others, We Help Ourselves

Ambassador Isobel Coleman at UCI School of Ecology | Photo Karen Tapia

UC Irvine’s School of Social Ecology hosted a talk by former Ambassador Isobel Coleman on the sudden shut down of the USAID. As the former administrator, she made a passionate case for the value of US foreign assistance. “When America halts the spread of disease overseas, it is less likely to reach our own shores; we’re healthier and safer.”

Floyd and KK Ciruli joined Dean Jon Gould and more than 100 faculty, staff, students, and community members.

Floyd and KK Ciruli | Photo Karen Tapia

Trump’s Approval Eclipsed – National Dashboard

The “blood moon” total lunar eclipse is seen above Austin, Texas, on March 14. (Photo by Rick Kern/Getty Images)

On March 14, the day of the lunar eclipse, President Donald Trump’s second term passed into negative approval in the conservative polling aggregator RTC (RealClear Politics). His approval advantage (approval minus disapproval) had been narrowing for weeks because his disapproval rating has risen from 42 percent on inauguration day to 48.5 percent on March 14, giving him a 0.7 negative approval rating. Newsweek tracking poll has him at 47 percent approval and 50 percent disapproval (negative 3%).

The primary cause appears to be his barrage of executive orders and associated actions. The public view of the economy, his strongest asset in the 2024 election campaign, has been greatly damaged by the fear of continued inflation and a possible recession, both of which he admits could result from actions and policies begun the first 53 days. Trump’s approval for handling the economy is 41 percent, 7 points below his overall approval. He now has the economic approval rating of President Biden in May of last year. The Dow and S&P are now both in negative territory after double digit gains in 2024.

The National Dashboard is a platform showing the state of public opinion for presidential approval. It tracks key indicators on the economy, direction of the country, and competition for the U.S. House of Representatives. It primarily uses RealClearPolitics (RCP) but makes comparisons to Gallup and other polls, as reported in Opinion Today.

Southern California Polling Professionals Meet Over Tacos in San Diego

Dinner in Del Mar | Photo Courtesy of Barbara Fernandez, MSPH

Floyd and KK met with Southern California pollsters and data experts over a taco dinner in Del Mar, home of the famous horse track, “where the turf meets the surf.” Joining the PAPOR (Pacific Chapter of the American Association of Public Opinion Research) session were researchers from NORC, the Kaiser Family Foundation, Action Research, Competitive Edge and, of course, Ciruli Associates.

Ciruli at JEWISHcolorado

Photos Courtesy of JEWISHcolorado

Floyd Ciruli and Denver City Councilperson Chris Hinds talk at JEWISHcolorado’s benefit dinner for Arlene and Barry Hirschfeld.

Trump’s Negatives Grow

Trump addresses Congress March 4, 2025. (Win McNamee/Pool Photo via AP)

Trump’s problems in his second term were noticeable before the end of February after about 6 weeks of Shock & Awe. At the point of his State of the Union address (March 4), as the line chart below shows, Trump is about a point positive, 49 percent to 48 percent.

His start-up approval was high compared to his low start in 2017, his first term. He tended to have an impenetrable base of approval of about 40 percent and was usually in double digit negative territory.

The National Dashboard is a platform showing the state of public opinion for the President election. It tracks key indictors on the economy, direction of the county, and competition for the U.S. House of Representatives. It primarily uses RealClearPolitics (RCP) but makes comparison to Gallup and other polls.

Trump Scrapes the Guardrails

Elon Musk took center stage at President Donald Trump's first Cabinet meeting.
Photo: USA Today

A month after the inauguration, Donald Trump is starting to scrape the guardrails I identified on January 24 related to public approval, inflation, the Dow, and the House majority.

Polling
The polling average, steady at 49 percent approval, hasn’t moved much, but some recent polls have reported approvals in the mid-40’s and disapproval has climbed from 43 percent on January 31 to 48 percent today, signaling the surge of White House news may be generating a negative reaction.

Inflation Increased
The December reported inflation rate was 2.9% and 3.0% in January, not a big change but moving in the wrong direction. It was interpreted, including by the Fed, as reason to hold interest rates steady and express caution concerning reductions in 2025. Trump was defensive and said it was Joe Biden’s fault.

Market Down
The markets have been nervous since Trump began speaking so aggressively about tariffs and mass deportations in January, actions which were seen as disruptive and likely inflationary. The Dow was 43,487 on the January 20 inauguration, jumped up to 44,544 at the end of January, and is 43,239 today(2-27-25), below the inaugural Dow average and volatile in recent days. The mass of policy and political disruption is generating caution.

Congress Struggles with Budget
The government avoided a possible shutdown by one vote in the House. Now, a long process is required to pass a reconciliation bill through both chambers. It will be difficult.

Opinion Today Published Era of Austerity

Colorado Has Entered a Challenging Era of Austerity
The tsunami effects of “Shock and Awe” have just slammed into Colorado’s local governments, hospitals, and education and research institutions with the possible loss of hundreds of millions of dollars in grant funds. It is now clear the Trump administration’s sudden curtailment of federal funding will be enormous and likely long lasting.

Opinion column by Floyd Ciruli was published in Denver Gazette February 20, 2025. It was circulated by Opinion Today, a national newsletter featuring a daily roundup of poll releases, commentary and podcasts, on February 25, 2025. The column reflects a presentation to Denver’s metro mayors in January 2025.

Gazette Article
Opinion Today Article

Shock and Awe Begins to Move the Polls

President Trump signs a series of executive orders at the White House on Jan. 20. Photo: Jabin Botsford /The Washington Post via Getty Images

During the first month, the White House launched hundreds of initiatives, with executive orders on tariffs, deportations and funding freezes and layoffs. Interspersed, high profile foreign policy has taken the center stage from bold declarations related to Canada, Greenland and Panama to pivots away from Ukraine toward Russia in the European war. Although it remains very early in the presidency, under conditions of “Shock and Awe” and “flooding the zone” early polls are picking up the impact of the executive orders and the nascent reaction from media coverage, commentary, protests, and social media.

Polling: Approval Down
Not surprising, President Trump’s approval polling average (538, RCP) hasn’t moved much since the inauguration (538, 50% on Jan. 24 with 42% disapproval) (RCP 51% approval, 43% disapproval) but disapproval is up 5 points and a host of most recent polls shows downward movement in his approval and an increase in disapproval.

Additional observations from early polls are Elon Musk and billionaires in general have a very negative image and are seen as having too much power. Several Trump- specific policies are not seen in a positive light, for example, the mass firings and the takeover of Gaza.

American Voters Are Center Right

Illustration from causes.com

American voters self-identified their ideology in the annual Gallup Poll as 37% conservative, 34% moderate and only 25% liberal. Overall they are moderate to slightly more conservative.

Parties Too Extreme
Both parties are more ideologically extreme than voters at large. Democrats are now 55 percent liberal with a tiny conservative wing of 9% and a long declining moderate block of 34%. Democrats shed most of their considerable moderate and conservative voters in the 1990’s. Republicans are 77% conservative identifiers. The party has been over 60 percent conservative since the 1990’s. There are only small moderate (18%) and liberal (4%) wings.

Democrats Must Move to Middle
In competitive states and congressional districts, Democrats are too liberal for voters’ preferences and Republicans too conservative. Hence, the endless close competition. But Democrats in particular need to dampen their most liberal agendas and constituents to appeal to the more moderate, broader electorate. Fortunately, recent Gallup polling shows that in light of the last election “a plurality of Democrats would like their party to become more moderate” (an 11 point increase since 2021).

Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/656636/democrats-favor-party-moderation-past.aspx

Axios Denver Covers Era of Austerity Presentation

Data: Floyd Ciruli, Ciruli Associates; Map: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

John Frank, co-author of Axios Denver’s online newsletter, wrote up my recent presentation to Denver metro mayors. Some of his observations:

Population Growth

• Population growth is flat
• Job growth is slowing
• Sales tax collections are falling
• Real estate values are steady

Why does this matter?

• Welcome to “the new era of austerity” in Colorado as described to metro mayors recently by pollster Floyd Ciruli.
• The stalled economic pictures comes as costs continue to escalate and federal dollars are vanishing.

Ciruli’s Comments

• “The new era will require shifting priorities, including increasing the focus on the economy and directing government’s attention to small business, job creation and cost of living.”

READ ARTICLE

Independents Dominate National and Colorado Political Identity

State Dept./Doug Thompson

One of the big political stories out of the last decade of Colorado politics has been that the surge of new registered voters are now as likely to register Unaffiliated (49%) as either Democrat (26%) or Republican (23%). The diminished Democratic Party is slightly ahead of Republicans, who were the largest registered group in the beginning of the century. Independents have more than doubled from 30 percent in 2000, mostly since 2010.

The shift in political identity tracks the changes in America as reported by the Gallup poll. Independents are now 43 percent of Americans’ party preference and Democrats and Republicans are tied at 38 percent each. Independent identification jumped 8 points since 2008.

Will Trade War, Deportations and Funding Freeze Hit the Guardrails

Musk, his son, and Trump in the Oval Office
Photo: Eric Lee / The New York Times

As of January 31, 2025, ten days into the new administration, President Donald Trump began with a 49 percent approval (9 national polls in RCP, 11 in 538) and a 44,544 DOW.

The first weekend, Trump announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China as immigrant raids and deportations started. He immediately suspended Canada and Mexico’s tariffs for negotiations.

The second week saw a freeze of federal funding for grant programs, forced buyout of federal employees, the end of USAID, the rumored end of the Department of Education and a White House musing on a Riviera in Gaza.

Is there an executive order that Americans won’t tolerate? Congress is mostly silent and the courts are cumbersome and slow. It is still early, but reaction to the looming trade war, deportations, and massive budget cuts may begin to show up in public opinion and economic data.

Will the guardrails (see below) begin to restrain the “shock and awe,” channel its direction or even stop it? Or is the road ahead clear and fast?

Ciruli Interviews Secretaries of State Kerry and Albright

Ciruli, Kerry and Albright, 2018

In 2018, Mr. Ciruli interviewed Secretaries of State John Kerry and Madeline Albright at DU’s Korbel School annual dinner. In attendance were former Colorado U.S. Senators Gary Hart and Hank Brown and current Senator, Michael Bennet.

Mr. Ciruli taught public opinion and policy at the University of Denver and the University of Colorado in Denver. He was a Senior Fellow at the CU Denver School of Public Affairs. He was the founding Director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies.

Mr. Ciruli holds a law degree from Georgetown University Law Center in Washington, D.C., and a bachelor’s degree cum laude in political science from UCLA. He is a member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), and is the past president of the Pacific Chapter of AAPOR (PAPOR). Mr. Ciruli was vice-chair of the Social Science Foundation of the University of Denver Josef Korbel School of International Studies and past-president of the Georgetown Law Alumni Board.

Will Republicans Lose The House?

Trump and Johnson in Miami, Florida. Photo: REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo

History shows the 2026 mid-term should punish President Trump and Republicans, at least costing them their 5-seat majority in the House. In 2018, as Trump focused on caravans in Mexico and Democrats abortion, the first two years of chaos saw a 41-seat loss and brought Trump’s nemesis, Nancy Pelosi, to the speakership. Barack Obama and Joe Biden had similar experiences.

Will Trump be different in the 2026 mid-terms? The following reflects a dialogue with Denver Metro Mayors Caucus at their annual retreat:

• Trump has been here before and realizes the danger of 2026. Since the election tends to be a referendum on Presidential performance, he could adjust the pace and volume of disruption.
• Anticipating the controversial aspect of his agenda, Trump picked cabinet officers who are both loyal and proven communicators, especially on Fox News and alternative venues. All the disruption will be better defended than in the first term.
• The “shock and awe” and “Flood the Zone” strategies have fragmented and muted most opposition. The Democratic counter attack has yet to gain traction.
• Democrats are still struggling with what happened. In 2016, a close election looked like an anomaly and Trump’s first two years of chaos was great campaign material. But his 2024 win, while historically close, left no doubt he had made inroads into the Democratic coalition and was dominating the top issues of economy, immigration and cultural overreach.

But it is very early, and Trump’s policies are highly disruptive. His approval, the market, living cost, and unemployment could move in a negative direction.