Newsom More Electable than Harris – California Democrats

US Vice President Kamala Harris (R) waves alongside California Governor Gavin Newsom during a campaign event against his recall election at the IBEW-NECA Joint Apprenticeship Training Center in San Leandro, California, September 8, 2021. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP) (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

After six months of testing the presidential waters, California Democrats continue to say: Harris don’t run. In a March 2025 Berkeley IGS poll, Kamala Harris was in weak fourth place (9%) behind Gavin Newsom (28%), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (14%), and Peter Buttigieg (11%) with California Democrats when asked their preference for the Democratic nomination. (See blog Harris Don’t Run-California Democrats, 4-1-2026).

Politico reports in a September poll that “61 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters are excited for Newsom presidential bid.” But more than half of Democrats (55%) would not be excited for a Harris run. More important, 59 percent believe Newsom could win a general election and only 9 percent believe Harris could. Hence, Harris neither has the passion of grass roots support nor the electability issue with more pragmatic Democrats.

RELATED:
Harris Don’t Run-California Democrats Apr. 1, 2026

Boulder County – First Supreme Court Case

Kathleen Kelley - Photo by Kelsey Brunner/For The Washington Post

Kathleen Kelley, former Colorado legislator and longtime Western Slope rancher and environmentalist, made the front page of the Washington Post dramatizing the Supreme Court’s opening case this term - Suncor v. Boulder. She and fellow ranchers suffered massive damages in 2025 from the Lee Fire in Rio Blanco County which they blame on climate change.

Boulder (the city) wants to sue oil companies in Colorado State Court for the damages of climate change. Needless to say, the oil industry and federal government argue this is a federal matter and local jurisdictions should be barred from state actions.

Boulder was on the defensive in the oral argument but it is likely just the first of many approaches to get compensation for climate change.

Should Big Oil Pay for Climate Change? WA Post Article Oct 4, 2026

Ballots Are Out: Will Colorado Move Left or Right?

A ballot drop box is seen outside the downtown office of the Denver Elections Division on June 28, 2022. (Quentin Young/Colorado Newsline).

Mail back voting is underway. Drop boxes open Monday. The state’s 14 ballot propositions could dramatically change the tax architecture and increase spending on education and conservation. Equally important, ten initiatives, mostly of conservative origin, are what I called “an alternative governing model using the ballot initiative process” (Axios).

In a John Frank writeup on the big election fights in Wednesday’s Axios, I point out that Advance Colorado has created “a powerful counter to the Democratic Legislature and the general liberal cultural zeitgeist.”

The director of the organization, Michael Field, has the influence of the TABOR movement of the 1990s but without the difficult and unpleasant Doug Bruce and his statewide network of volunteers. Field uses money and think tank research to access the ballot. In some cases, the threat of going to the ballot puts him, his perspective and interest group funders at the legislative table and in the governor’s office.

Denver Press Club: Should Election Polls Be Banned?

The Denver Press Club is hosting an election session on polling at 6:00 p.m. October 13 at the Club, 1330 Glenarm Place, downtown Denver. Floyd Ciruli, a longtime Colorado pollster and adjunct professor, will discuss polling’s current problems.

It has had a difficult summer. The Michigan and Wisconsin primaries’ polls were off by more than ten points. There have been reports of fake polls, dozens of new pollsters with no track record, and the end of live phone interviews.

Floyd Ciruli will address these problems with Axios reporter/editor John Frank and Jesse Paul of the Colorado Sun. Also joining are pollsters Lori Weigel of New Bridge Strategies and Alex Dunn of Aspect Strategic. Many European states regulate polling, but it is mostly the wild west in the U.S. Among Ciruli’s topics: Is polling in trouble, or is this year not much different than past midterm primary elections? And, as Coloradans get ready to vote, what should they look for to judge good, shoddy or take polls.

RELATED:
Polling Asserts Its Purpose Sep 28, 2026
Polling’s Difficult Season Sep 21, 2026
Should Polls be Banned? Sep 3, 2026

Tickets are free, but you can RSVP HERE.

National Dashboard: Republican Retreat

President Donald Trump gestures at a campaign rally at The Mitchell Center in Mobile, Ala., Friday, Oct. 2, 2026. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

As the midterm election nears its November 3 conclusion, Republicans are in retreat across the board. Although prodigious amounts of funds keep many campaigns competitive, they are mostly on the defensive. The media environment is flooded by stories of Republicans getting distance from Trump and the administration’s politics.

The latest House midterm projections show Democrats winning between 25 to 43 seats. They need 3 to take a majority.

Key factors helping the Democrats:

1. Trump approval now at or below 39%.
2. The generic ballot test about 8 for Democrats.
3. The persistence of the war in Iran and its effect on the economy.

RELATED:
Midterm Panic July 22, 2026
Trump Doesn’t Have the Cards May 26, 2026
National Dashboard: Iran Takes Trump Down April 6, 2026
National Dashboard: Trump in Retreat Feb 23, 2026
Trilogy on Trump’s Declining Approval Dec 15, 2025
Trump Approval Collapses and November 4 Turns Blue Nov 20, 2025

All Big City Mayors Need a Mamdani Picture

Johnston and Mamdani in New York for the Urban20 Summit. Photo: Mike Johnston for Mayor

Mayor Johnston’s reelection campaign had a strong start and is carefully picking its campaign associates given the local political environment.

Polling Asserts Its Purpose

Using a random sampling and door-to-door interviewing 90 years ago, three pollsters predicted a Franklin Roosevelt win. He won in a landslide. Since that dramatic beginning, polling has become a multi-billion dollar industry that dominates politics and political reporting in most advanced democracies.

Do the purposes and benefits that the pioneers articulated still hold? The founding troika of George Gallup, Elmo Roper and Archibold Crossley wanted to get the common American into the room where political decisions were made. They had a strong desire to counter special interests with popular opinion. Gallup, in particular, articulated the benefit of being able to focus on specific issues and providing insights between elections.

It took the missed election result in 1948 when Thomas Dewey was predicted to be the winner that Harry Truman said famously, “That’s not how I heard it,” to motivate pollsters to form an association to improve standards and address inadequacies in methods.

Polling’s purposes and credibility will be discussed at the Tuesday Morning Class (DCC) and Denver Press Club on October 13.