Swalwell Out: Becerra vs Steyer

(L-R) Democrat Matt Mahan, Democrat Xavier Becerra, Republican Chad Bianco, Republican Steve Hilton, Democrat Tom Steyer and Democrat Katie Porter during a gubernatorial debate at KRON Studios in San Francisco on Wednesday, April 22, 2026.
Pool/Jason Henry/Bloomberg/Getty Images via SFGATE

With the withdrawal of Eric Swalwell on April 3, a new California primary political order has been set. Most Democratic voters are dividing between billionaire Tom Steyer, who has spent as of May 1st more than $140 million on his campaign, and the new frontrunner in the some polls, Xavier Becerra, the former Attorney General and Biden cabinet officer.

Becerra appears to be gathering the most recent endorsements and has moved up from a weak 6th place on March 15 to 3rd in the April 30 FiftyPlusOne average.

Early voting starts May 4 for the June 2 primary. Steve Hilton, the leading Republican in the field, has President Trump’s endorsement. He has a good chance to make the ballot. But a Democrat is still the favorite to win in November.

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SCFD and Presidential Elections

Arvada Mayor Marc Williams, Aurora Mayor Steve Hogan, Greenwood Village Mayor Ron Rakowsky and Denver Mayor Michael Hancock with Popsicle at Mayors Launch SCFD GOTV, Oct. 4, 2016

The Scientific and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD) has been on the ballot in two presidential elections in this century. It won by 66 percent in 2004 and 63 percent in 2016. The SCFD had bipartisan support of regional mayors, legislators and other political and business leaders.

The following table compares the 2016 SCFD vote and the most recent results of Democratic candidate of Kamala Harris’ in 2024. The two percentage results tend to track by county except the SCFD and its non-partisan reputation and purpose did better in more Republican counties of Douglas and Jefferson and less well in the most Democratic counties of Boulder and Denver.

Examining the turnout, an additional 155,000 voted in 2024. It reflects both the difference in vote for a presidential candidate and ballot issue and the voter registration growth from 2016 to 2024.

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Art Funding in the Era of Austerity

Planning has started for the 2028 renewal of the Scientific and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD). The election will take place in an era of austerity. The Colorado economy has slowed and population growth mostly stopped. State and local governments are dealing with significant deficits. Residents are concerned about affordability and polls indicate that more than half believe the economy will get worse this year.

In the process of preparing the SCFD for legislative review and a regional vote, arts advocates and staffs weigh in on the types of changes they would like to see in the statute. Although previous elections and recent polling show the SCFD concept of regional arts funding is popular, constituent groups are being cautioned about assuming the voters are supportive of increased government-funded budgets or paying higher taxes.

Arts advocates believe they need continuation of the tax dollars but in an era of austerity that will be weighted against voters’ budgets and their priorities. In a recent regional poll, voters were asked if there are higher priorities for taxpayer dollars than even well-liked arts, museums and theaters. The population split closely on that statement. Generating high profile battles over funding could risk the public support for SCFD. (See figure below.)

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Trump’s Low Average is Anti-Trump, Not Pro-Democrat

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., joined by Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., speaks to members of the media following the Republican Senate Policy Luncheon at the U.S. Capitol on Oct. 7, 2025. Kevin Dietsch / Getty Images

President Donald Trump is now consistently more than 15 points negative among voters rating his performance, with an approval frequently below 42 percent and disapproval at or above 55 percent in RealClearPolitics conservative survey site. Viewing his position on other sites such as FiftyPlusOne show Trump 21 points negative with a 38 percent approval. The Decision Desk HQ shows a 41 percent approval, 55 percent disapproval.

However, as Trump’s approval declines, voters do not appear to be endorsing the Democrats’ brand. Seven months out, Democrats only register a 4 to 5 point advantage on the generic ballot. While that is enough to win the House, it’s not a 30 or 40 seat Democratic landslide as the 2006, 2010, and 2018 elections were.

But it may not matter. They may just vote against Trump without really embracing the Democrats, their candidates or issue positions. Historically, approval ratings this low should produce a high turnout of more angry voters at the November mid-term election. It may also demotivate non-MAGA Trump voters from participating. Republican leadership is warning of a disaster and Trump is acting nervous.

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Progressives Upset Old Guard Democrats

Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman, left, and Mayor Karen Bass.
Photos: Jason Armond and Ronaldo Bolanos / Los Angeles Times

Since the mayoral victory of Zohran Mamdani in New York, the biggest reported trend in the Democratic Party has been older incumbents facing younger, usually more “progressive” challengers. And in urban settings the challengers are often members of socialist organizations, (e.g., Democratic Socialists of America).

Two members of the new wave of urban challengers in LA and Denver are significantly younger than their incumbents/opponents, they are South Asian/African, very progressive, and good at social and digital media, especially with younger voters. They tend to be more supportive of Palestinians and represent the cutting edge of the no-more-arms-funding-for-Israel cadre, which is a growing wing of the Democratic Party.

Both candidates are long shots. However Mamdani won, Kiros won a surprise party victory in Denver and is on the ballot, as is Raman in LA, who runs second in many polls.

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Is Karen Bass in Trouble? Yes.

Then-Rep. Karen Bass at the kickoff to her campaign for mayor of Los Angeles on Oct. 16, 2021. (Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)

A Loyola Marymount University poll shows Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass losing to last-minute candidate socialist City Council member Nithya Raman.

The poll’s methodology was questionable in terms of producing an accurate snapshot of the status of the race as of March 16, but it captures the race’s fluidity. All polls conducted so far show an electorate not yet attentive, not too excited about the choices and significantly undecided. In this poll, candidates were given labels. Bass was the incumbent mayor, and a veteran legislator focused on homelessness. Raman was LA City Councilmember, progressive, focused on housing affordability. People voted for the labels as much as the names. Non-incumbent, progressive won.

Except for Bass, the field of candidates is not known and spending in the race is just beginning, so it’s early. But clearly Bass is handicapped by being a veteran establishment mayor of a city government people are not happy with. In addition, her performance during the fire was a major controversy of which she remains vulnerable. Numerous polls show 80% of LA voters would consider someone beyond Bass.

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National Dashboard: Iran Takes Trump Down

Gas prices are displayed at a Shell station in Pasadena, Calif., on March 30, 2026. Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images

President Trump’s 16 percent negative is a new low for his second term. RealClearPolitics’ aggregator website records a 41 percent approval, which is higher than most other political websites due to it including a host of right leaning polling sources whose methods consistently show partisan bias.

One month into the US/Israel Iran War has crushed Donald Trump’s opinion numbers. After a forced retreat in February from Davos and Minnesota, Trump now faces rising gas prices and a down stock market.

His economic performance declined 4 points to the negative in March – from 15 to 19 points. The war produced no rally effect and is opposed by a majority of voters. The cost of living and the economy continue to be the highest priority issues. It is likely Republicans will lose the House. The only question appears to be the size of the swing. Could the Democrats win a majority of the Senate? Still a stretch but Majority Leader Thune has to be concerned for his vulnerable seats.

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