Polling’s Difficult Season

A record crowd of more than 250 people attend Amb. Chris Hill and Floyd Ciruli presentation after the surprise 2016 election to review the polling and forecasting of the national and international fallout.

The Trump era has been especially challenging for public opinion polling and its media sponsors. The problem was dramatically highlighted in November of 2016 when polling had shown Hillary Clinton winning the voting population by 2 to 4 points (she won by 2.1%) and was projected to carry the electoral vote by 100 or more. She lost it famously by 77 in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

I had the opportunity with the DU Korbel School Dean Christopher Hill to describe to a very unhappy audience what happened. See picture above at DU’s Maglione Hall.

This has been another difficult year for polling. Talking about polling’s purpose, usefulness and efforts to get it right will take place on October 13 at the Tuesday Morning Class(DCC) and later at the Denver Press Club.

Georgetown Law Reunion – Class of 1976

Georgetown University Law Center

The law class of 1976 went through the Watergate scandal, Richard Nixon’s resignation, and the 1974 November Democrat landslide (49 new seats – Watergate Babies). Colorado politics was changed for generations with a new Democratic governor, Dick Lamm, a new Senator, Gary Hart, and a new Congressman, Tim Wirth.

Our class joins hundreds of reunion classmates in two weeks and many will ask if the 2026 election will bring a new congressional class dedicated to again restraining an Imperial Presidency.

My visit will also allow a quick visit to the White House and new ballroom and Lincoln memorial and the reflecting pool – old and new sights in the news.

Metro Denver Sales Tax Revenue Growing

The sales tax revenue in the seven-county Denver metro area in 2025 was up 1.47% above 2024. That was a continuation of the modest improvement in 2025 after two years of flat sales tax growth in 2023 (0.5%) and 2024 (0.1%).

The total revenue collected in 2025 was $87.5 million from one-tenth of a cent provided the Scientific & Cultural Facilities District (SCFD). As of July 2026, the District is slated to receive $51 million or a 2.7% increase. That will likely add about $2 million to the 2026 total revenue or $89 million. The District diverts for administration and statutory obligations about $2 million per year.

Colorado Ballot Leans Right on Culture and Left on Taxes

Colorado State Capitol | Photo: Library of Congress Carol Highsmith

Not since 1992 and the historic TABOR Amendment has there been more important tax and spending propositions on the ballot. This year, the 14 propositions lean both right and left in terms of their purpose and supporters.

Ten of the propositions are cultural in nature. They all lean right and are sponsored by conservative organizations (e.g. Advance Colorado). Among the four propositions that are related to government funding three are backed by liberal groups and causes (e.g. Bell Policy Center, education and conservation groups). One conservative tax-related proposition is on the ballot, a protection of the flat tax which counters the graduated income tax proposal (Advance Colorado).

School Districts Ask Millions in Operating Funds

Students head into Newlon Elementary School to begin the 2026–27 Denver Public Schools school year on Monday, Aug. 24, 2026, in Denver. (Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post)

Colorado’s 3 largest school districts join more than a dozen others putting local property tax increases on the ballot for operating costs.

DPS wants $44 million mill levy override
Douglas $54 million
Jefferson $133 million

The funding is primarily for teachers’ salaries and other programs and services.

Jessica Seaman reports in the Denver Post about the school district requests and the obstacles they face. Political consultant Steve Welchert believes the measures must deal with a flat economy and a crowded ballot.

Also, along with a myriad of local tax measures, several statewide tax propositions attempt to raise revenue for K-12 education (Prop 195, NN). However, I pointed out that in spite of challenges, Colorado voters have been generous to schools and teachers in recent years.

“Affordability is the No. 1 issue politicians are talking about this election, but Coloradans historically tend to support increasing tax revenue for schools,” pollster Floyd Ciruli said.

“The public tends to be fairly generous with teachers and education – continuing to value it and continuing to increase the property tax load,” he said.

Should Polls be Banned?

Polling has had a difficult summer. The Michigan and Wisconsin primaries’ polls were off by more than ten points. There have been reports of fake polls, dozens of new pollsters with no track record, and the end of live phone interviews.

Floyd Ciruli, a longtime Colorado pollster and adjunct professor of polling, will address the problems with the Tuesday Morning Class on October 13 at the Denver Country Club.

Many European states regulate polling but it is mostly the wild west in the U.S. Among my topics: Is polling in trouble or is this year not much different than past mid-term primary elections? And, as Coloradans get ready to vote, what should they look for to judge good, shoddy or fake polls?

Can Democrats Go for Eight?

The U.S. House district map.
Image: 9News via Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission

As President Donald Trump's approval rating drops below 40% (FiftyPlusOne 36%) and the generic congressional ballot test hits 6 points and higher for Democrats, the possibility that Colorado Democrats could aspire to winning more than just the toss-up 8th district comes into view.

The DC-based rating services consider that after Congressman Gabe Evans’ district (Democrat Manny Rutinel) the next most vulnerable is Republicans Jeff Hurd on the Western Slope 3rd and Jeff Crank in the El Paso-based 5th. But for Democrats to be competitive it will require high quality, well-funded candidates with some of the populist anti-DC, anti-establishment politics that's shaking up congressional races today.

The Lauren Boebert 4th CD would be the most difficult to be competitive in based on past performance. But Democrats argue this is the year to shoot for the moon. And indeed they have some credible candidates in all three longer-shot races (Democratic candidates: Dwayne Romero, 3rd, Eileen Laubacher, 4th, Jessica Killin, 5th).

Also, with the likelihood that Senator Michael Bennet won't run again in 2028 after his 14 point loss to Phil Weiser for governor, no doubt has Joe Neguse, Jason Crow and Brittany Pettersen thinking about the U.S. Senate.