Democrats Losing the Senate

2024 Senate ratings Sept 6, 2024 | Photo: Center for Politics

The latest polling averages indicate the Democrats are about to lose their one vote advantage in the U.S. Senate. Sabato’s Crystal Ball posts its September 6 map leaving Ohio’s Democratic seat a toss-up and shifting Montana into the “likely” Republican camp. Tim Sheehy has been ahead of incumbent Democrat Jon Tester by 5 points in the last 3 August polls. Republicans then would have 51 senators, Democrats 48 with Ohio the toss-up. Ohio’s incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown is in a very difficult re-elect with Bernie Moreno. Brown is slightly ahead in polling. Both states are likely to give their electoral votes to Donald Trump.

Colorado’s senate seat is up in 2026 and John Hickenlooper declared he will run one more race.

Is Johnston’s Tax in Trouble?

Mayor Mike Johnston | Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post

A rising number of voices have been speaking out against Denver’s soaring tax rates and specifically the timing and justification of Mayor Johnston’s half cent sales tax increase (raises $100 million per).

Some of the positions of caution or opposition are:

• Denver Post editorial said bad timing, already many new funds with surpluses.
• Two-thirds (64%) of Denver voters believe city taxes are “already high” and 35% of them say “way too high.” (Colorado Polling Institute, July 2024)
• City Councilman Kevin Flynn points to negative impact on residents and city’s affordability.
• Former Mayor Wellington Webb believes hospital tax (.34 of a cent) is a higher priority. Calls for delay.
• Businessman Walter Isenberg has concerns about taxes’ negative effect on business and employment.

Denver voters in recent years have said yes to most tax increases. The only “no” was the stock show arena property tax increase. Affordable housing is a high priority but the tax increases have piled up the last decade. Denver’s sales tax is now nearly 10 percent and becoming the highest in the metro area.

If the tax loses or even struggles in a narrow win, do the city council and Mayor take a message and manage priorities better within the current tax level?

RELATED:
Sales Tax Collection Falls Again 8/16/24
Denver Voters Inundated with Tax and Union Ballot Initiatives 8/12/24
Denver Health Takes Sales Tax Near Ten Percent 6/26/24

Ciruli Associates: 2024 Election Polling & Blogs

Vice President, Kamala Harris and Former President, Donald Trump
Photos: Grace Widyatmadja/NPR; Stephen Maturen/Getty Images

The election has more twists and turns than Independence Pass. But polling at the national and state level has never been more influential. My website, Ciruli.com, the Buzz, has been tracking the presidential polling since January. It was clear that Joe Biden was in serious trouble, losing the popular vote closely and most battleground states. It was worse after the June 27 debate.

It is also now clear that the polling, using the same methodologies and pollsters, have seen a Democratic revival. The new Harris/Walz ticket is ahead of Trump/Vance if only a point or two, in both the popular and a majority of battleground states. The projection of the electoral vote has also shifted to favor the Democrats, although both candidates are well short of the 270 needed to win. Linked are the 2024 blogs on election polls and the electoral votes’ estimates since July. Also, the UC Denver School of Public Affairs panels are linked.

Updates will be posted as I begin to present at election panels hosted by CU Denver and other venues.

POLLS:
Harris Takes the Lead 8/29/24
Harris Takes Over – Close Race 8/6/24
Biden Faces the End 7/22/24
Post-Debate Biden Drops - Loses Battleground States 7/16/24
Trump Confident, Dems Stressed 5/15/24
One Point Presidential Race 4/4/24
Biden Narrows Gap 2/27/24
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. Colorado Win Likely Cut in Half 2/14/24
Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is it Over? 1/3/24

ELECTORAL COUNT:
Reversal: Democrats Ahead in Electoral Vote 8/28/24
Democrats Go into Convention in Big Hole 7/23/24

CU DENVER PANELS:
The Rush to November 5 Begins 8/28/24
Election 2024 8/27/24

Election 2024: Colorado and Country at a Crossroads

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On September 6, the CU Denver School of Public Affairs will host a panel of Colorado political experts: Election 2024: Colorado and Country at a Crossroads. Floyd Ciruli, pollster and Senior Fellow, will moderate with commentators and party activists.

The First Friday Breakfast will consider the changes in the national race as they affect control of Congress and Colorado’s key Congressional and legislative races. The fate of the state’s most contentious ballot propositions will also be examined.

Floyd Ciruli, Panel Moderator Senior Fellow, CU Denver School of Public Affairs

Panel:
Sheila MacDonald, media commentator, Democratic political consultant, manager of candidate and issue campaigns
Dick Wadhams, media commentator, Channel 4 analyst, consultant, former Republican chair
Marianne Goodland, chief legislative reporter, Colorado Politics, president of the Denver Press Club

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend panel here.

“Election 2024: Colorado and Country at a Crossroads”
September 6, 2024 8:30 a.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200, Denver, Colorado

Harris Takes the Lead

Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on stage during a campaign event on August 6, 2024 in Philadelphia. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

In an extraordinary turnaround, Kamala Harris has surged into a close lead over Donald Trump in slightly over 30 days after becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee. President Joe Biden was behind two points on the date he left the race, July 21. In the month, Harris has picked a vice-president and delivered a well-regarded acceptance speech at a national convention with 26 million viewers. On August 29, she held a 2 point lead in the RCP average and 3 points in 538 (ABC News). Harris and Trump now split the battleground states, with Harris ahead in 2, Trump 3, and 2 tied. The aggregate battleground vote is tied at 47 percent each.

Robert Kennedy Jr. dropped his failed campaign effort and endorsed Trump on Friday, August 23. Prior to RFK Jr.'s switch, Harris was beating Trump by two points in 5 party tests including Kennedy. The effect of Kennedy and the Democratic convention bump is just beginning to be polled and assessed.

Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallup, and other credible polls.

The campaign has only about two months left, with some early voting starting in October. A debate is tentatively scheduled September 10 and Harris must deal with a press corps hungry for interviews but Democrats clearly have momentum and a fresh enthusiasm.

RELATED:
Harris Takes Over – Close Race 8/6/24
Biden Faces the End 7/22/24
Post-Debate Biden Drops-Loses Battleground States 7/16/24
Trump Confident, Dems Stressed 5/15/24
One Point Presidential Race 4/4/24
Biden Narrows Gap 2/27/24
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. Colorado Win Likely Cut in Half 2/14/24
Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is it Over? 1/3/24

Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on stage during a campaign event on August 6, 2024 in Philadelphia. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

The Rush to November 5 Begins

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

In an election that has more twists and turns than Independence Pass, the 2024 campaign enters its final two months. A series of panel discussions with Colorado's top political analysts and commentators starts September 6 with an 8:30 a.m. First Friday Breakfast panel. It will bring together Floyd Ciruli, Senior Fellow at the CU Denver School of Public Affairs moderating a panel of Colorado political experts.

Other panels are on:

• October 4 - First Friday Breakfast: Latinx Voters: Hold Sway
• October 11 - Afternoon event: The Colorado Ballot: Seismic Decisions
• October 25 - Afternoon event: Disinformation and the Perils of Election Administration
• November 8 - First Friday Breakfast: Election 2024: What Happened and What Lies Ahead

All events are held at

CU Denver School of Public Affairs
1380 Lawrence St., 2nd Floor
Denver, Colorado

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs' website for more information here.

RELATED
Election 2024: Colorado and Country at a Crossroads Aug 27, 2024
CU Denver School of Public Affairs Hosts Fall 2024 Election Program July 9, 2024

Reversal: Democrats Ahead in Electoral Vote

Vice President Harris and Democrats are now ahead of former President Donald Trump and Republicans 226 to 219 electoral votes with 93 rated toss-up. In Sabato's Crystal Ball latest analysis (August 20, 2024), the toss-up states are Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (18), Nevada (8), Arizona (11) and North Carolina (16). The race remains close but Harris has rapidly and significantly changed the electoral map. Polling can barely stay abreast with the frequent changes in the election environment. RealClearPolitics analysis still has Trump ahead 219 to 208 for Harris with 111 electoral votes to be decided.

Crystal Ball Electoral College rating

Sabato records a major reversal from 312 electoral votes in mid-July for Trump to 219 at the end of August, while Democrats climbed from 196 to 226. Both parties are short of the 270 needed to win but the Democrats now have a much better prospect. Sabato's next electoral map will be post-convention and could present more good news for the Democrats.

RELATED:
Democrats Go into Convention in Big Hole July 23, 2024