Thursday, September 29, 2022

November Election Will Make a Difference for Ukraine

The U.S. has been the major funder, weapons supplier and international cheerleader for Ukraine and its independence. That may be ending soon. Polling shows that although Americans overall support Ukraine, a significant segment of the Republican party (46%) believes the U.S. should "end the conflict quickly, even if it allows Russia to keep territory" versus "support Ukraine in reclaiming territory even if it prolongs the conflict." Democrats prefer the supporting Ukraine option offered in a recent Gallup poll by 79%.

U.S. ROLE IN UKRAINE WAR Gallup Poll

With the possibility that the Republican party takes control of the House and Senate, further financial support for Ukraine may become much more difficult.

Inflation, Abortion Top Issues

In a recent interview I said the Republican running in Colorado's redesigned 7th Congressional district needs to "go on the offensive" with crime and inflation if he was to win. A new Fox News poll agrees. It reports inflation (59%), future of democracy (50%), abortion policy (45%) and high crime rates (43%), the top issues with inflation and crime rates helping Republicans, and abortion and democracy helping Democrats.

Fox News Poll September 9-12

Related: Combustible Issues, New Faces - Denver Post

Wednesday, September 28, 2022

Western Pollsters Gather to Examine 2022 Midterm and The Politics of 2024

PAPOR
The annual conference of the Pacific Chapter of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (PAPOR) will meet in San Francisco December 1 and 2 to sift through the results of the 2022 midterm and discuss the likely political changes, including a preview of 2024.

The panel assembles California's top pollsters and political analysts with colleagues from Western states. Scheduled to attend are:

  • Mark DiCamillo – Director of the Berkeley IGS Poll
  • Mark Baldassare – President of Public Policy Institute of California
  • Floyd Ciruli – Director of the Crossley Center of Public Opinion Research
PAPOR Panelists

I will moderate the panel, providing an overview of the midterm political impact in Western states and the results in Colorado.

Tuesday, September 27, 2022

Denver Press Club Hosts Post Election Panel

Who Controls Congress? Did Republicans Recover In Colorado?

The Denver Press Club will host a post-election panel of Colorado political experts to examine the November 8 election results—surprises and the expected and how it affects 2024.

Political analyst Floyd Ciruli will moderate the panel at 6:30 PM on Thursday, November 10, at the Denver Press Club on 1330 Glenarm Place across from the DAC.

Denver Press Club and Floyd Ciruli
Denver Press Club photo (left) By Jeffrey Beall; Floyd Ciruli (right), Director of the Crossley Center of Public Opinion Research

New Poll Reality Check for Republicans

A new poll from Colorado's Fox news outlet shows Democrats still dominating the top races for senate and governor.

U.S. Senator Michael Bennet is 10 points ahead of GOP challenger Joe O'Dea, 46 percent to 36 percent with 14 percent undecided. Less surprising, Governor Jared Polis is 17 points ahead of Republican nominee Heidi Ganahl.

FOX NEWS – 31 POLLFOX NEWS – 31 POLL

This poll is especially damaging for O'Dea, who was hoping for polls showing a close post-Labor Day race to attract the money and attention he needs to pull off an upset. Bennet is not yet over 50 percent but he's winning the unaffiliated vote by 15 points.

The challenge is that both Republican candidates are still not well known by the voters and Democrats have a significant financial advantage in the races. The advertising, much of it negative, is just beginning.

Thursday, September 22, 2022

Combustible Issues, New Faces - Denver Post

John Aguilar profiles the contest in the redrawn 7th Congressional district which presents familiar but combustible 2022 issues of inflation, abortion, crime, and election denial with two new candidates in an open seat. Although Washington-based pundits rate the district “lean” or “likely” Democratic, it is still Colorado’s second most competitive race.

I offered that the Republican candidate will have to be aggressive on issues of crime and inflation. Democrat Brittany Pettersen has at least two big advantages over Republican Erik Aadland – 13,000 more registered Democrats and nearly 3 times more money to spend as of the end of June.

Congressional District 7 Democratic candidate Brittany Pettersen, center, speaks to supporters during a campaign event at Holidaily Brewing Company on Sept. 11, 2022, in Golden. (Photo by Helen H. Richardson/The Denver Post) Congressional District 7 Democratic candidate Brittany Pettersen, center, speaks to supporters during a campaign event at Holidaily Brewing Company on Sept. 11, 2022, in Golden. (Photo by Helen H. Richardson/The Denver Post)

Floyd Ciruli, director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver, said Aadland will have to hit his opponent hard on the issue of rising crime.

"She has to deal with it – it will be one of the issues that every Democrat will have to deal with," he said.

Erik Aadland, GOP contender for Colorado’s 7th Congressional District goes door to door meeting with potential voters on Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022, in Golden. (Photo by Chet Strange/Special to the Denver Post)
Erik Aadland, GOP contender for Colorado’s 7th Congressional District goes door to door meeting with potential voters on Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022, in Golden. (Photo by Chet Strange/Special to the Denver Post)

The other big opening for Aadland in the race, Ciruli said, is inflation.

The New York Times reported that prices at the grocery store, where consumers feel it most, have soared 13.5 percent in the last year – the sharpest spike since Jimmy Carter was in the White House.

“(Aadland) will need to go on the offense with his issues, especially inflation,” Ciruli said.

Read: https://www.denverpost.com/2022/09/18/brittany-pettersen-erik-aadland-7th-congressional-district-election-2022

Wednesday, September 14, 2022

Colorado Senate Race Barometer

Colorado Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, left, and Republican nominee Joe O’Dea

The Colorado senate race is being closely followed by the national media for indications of a Republican tide that could sweep even an incumbent out of a state that has been supporting Democrats since 2016.

In July, Mark Barabak wrote a column for the L.A. Times, “How bad could November be for Democrats? Watch this Senate race and see.” (7-26-22). I said it about incumbent Democrat Michael Bennett.

"He’s not in danger yet,” said Floyd Ciruli, a Denver pollster who has spent decades surveying Colorado voters. “But [President] Biden is in terrible shape and if that becomes a major factor, a lot of candidates we assume would be safe could be in trouble.”

The Denver Post updated the senate race in a weekend story by Nick Coltrain (9-10-22). He reported that mixed signals from polls still don’t show a Republican win and that the national party has not put much money behind their candidate, Joe O’ Dea. (Since the story appeared, McConnell gave $500,000)

Read:
How bad could November be for Democrats? Watch this Senate race and see
How close is Colorado’s U.S. Senate race? Campaigns ready for a ‘dogfight’