Trump’s Approval Eclipsed – National Dashboard

The “blood moon” total lunar eclipse is seen above Austin, Texas, on March 14. (Photo by Rick Kern/Getty Images)

On March 14, the day of the lunar eclipse, President Donald Trump’s second term passed into negative approval in the conservative polling aggregator RTC (RealClear Politics). His approval advantage (approval minus disapproval) had been narrowing for weeks because his disapproval rating has risen from 42 percent on inauguration day to 48.5 percent on March 14, giving him a 0.7 negative approval rating. Newsweek tracking poll has him at 47 percent approval and 50 percent disapproval (negative 3%).

The primary cause appears to be his barrage of executive orders and associated actions. The public view of the economy, his strongest asset in the 2024 election campaign, has been greatly damaged by the fear of continued inflation and a possible recession, both of which he admits could result from actions and policies begun the first 53 days. Trump’s approval for handling the economy is 41 percent, 7 points below his overall approval. He now has the economic approval rating of President Biden in May of last year. The Dow and S&P are now both in negative territory after double digit gains in 2024.

The National Dashboard is a platform showing the state of public opinion for presidential approval. It tracks key indicators on the economy, direction of the country, and competition for the U.S. House of Representatives. It primarily uses RealClearPolitics (RCP) but makes comparisons to Gallup and other polls, as reported in Opinion Today.

Southern California Polling Professionals Meet Over Tacos in San Diego

Dinner in Del Mar | Photo Courtesy of Barbara Fernandez, MSPH

Floyd and KK met with Southern California pollsters and data experts over a taco dinner in Del Mar, home of the famous horse track, “where the turf meets the surf.” Joining the PAPOR (Pacific Chapter of the American Association of Public Opinion Research) session were researchers from NORC, the Kaiser Family Foundation, Action Research, Competitive Edge and, of course, Ciruli Associates.

Ciruli at JEWISHcolorado

Photos Courtesy of JEWISHcolorado

Floyd Ciruli and Denver City Councilperson Chris Hinds talk at JEWISHcolorado’s benefit dinner for Arlene and Barry Hirschfeld.

Trump’s Negatives Grow

Trump addresses Congress March 4, 2025. (Win McNamee/Pool Photo via AP)

Trump’s problems in his second term were noticeable before the end of February after about 6 weeks of Shock & Awe. At the point of his State of the Union address (March 4), as the line chart below shows, Trump is about a point positive, 49 percent to 48 percent.

His start-up approval was high compared to his low start in 2017, his first term. He tended to have an impenetrable base of approval of about 40 percent and was usually in double digit negative territory.

The National Dashboard is a platform showing the state of public opinion for the President election. It tracks key indictors on the economy, direction of the county, and competition for the U.S. House of Representatives. It primarily uses RealClearPolitics (RCP) but makes comparison to Gallup and other polls.

Trump Scrapes the Guardrails

Elon Musk took center stage at President Donald Trump's first Cabinet meeting.
Photo: USA Today

A month after the inauguration, Donald Trump is starting to scrape the guardrails I identified on January 24 related to public approval, inflation, the Dow, and the House majority.

Polling
The polling average, steady at 49 percent approval, hasn’t moved much, but some recent polls have reported approvals in the mid-40’s and disapproval has climbed from 43 percent on January 31 to 48 percent today, signaling the surge of White House news may be generating a negative reaction.

Inflation Increased
The December reported inflation rate was 2.9% and 3.0% in January, not a big change but moving in the wrong direction. It was interpreted, including by the Fed, as reason to hold interest rates steady and express caution concerning reductions in 2025. Trump was defensive and said it was Joe Biden’s fault.

Market Down
The markets have been nervous since Trump began speaking so aggressively about tariffs and mass deportations in January, actions which were seen as disruptive and likely inflationary. The Dow was 43,487 on the January 20 inauguration, jumped up to 44,544 at the end of January, and is 43,239 today(2-27-25), below the inaugural Dow average and volatile in recent days. The mass of policy and political disruption is generating caution.

Congress Struggles with Budget
The government avoided a possible shutdown by one vote in the House. Now, a long process is required to pass a reconciliation bill through both chambers. It will be difficult.

Opinion Today Published Era of Austerity

Colorado Has Entered a Challenging Era of Austerity
The tsunami effects of “Shock and Awe” have just slammed into Colorado’s local governments, hospitals, and education and research institutions with the possible loss of hundreds of millions of dollars in grant funds. It is now clear the Trump administration’s sudden curtailment of federal funding will be enormous and likely long lasting.

Opinion column by Floyd Ciruli was published in Denver Gazette February 20, 2025. It was circulated by Opinion Today, a national newsletter featuring a daily roundup of poll releases, commentary and podcasts, on February 25, 2025. The column reflects a presentation to Denver’s metro mayors in January 2025.

Gazette Article
Opinion Today Article

Shock and Awe Begins to Move the Polls

President Trump signs a series of executive orders at the White House on Jan. 20. Photo: Jabin Botsford /The Washington Post via Getty Images

During the first month, the White House launched hundreds of initiatives, with executive orders on tariffs, deportations and funding freezes and layoffs. Interspersed, high profile foreign policy has taken the center stage from bold declarations related to Canada, Greenland and Panama to pivots away from Ukraine toward Russia in the European war. Although it remains very early in the presidency, under conditions of “Shock and Awe” and “flooding the zone” early polls are picking up the impact of the executive orders and the nascent reaction from media coverage, commentary, protests, and social media.

Polling: Approval Down
Not surprising, President Trump’s approval polling average (538, RCP) hasn’t moved much since the inauguration (538, 50% on Jan. 24 with 42% disapproval) (RCP 51% approval, 43% disapproval) but disapproval is up 5 points and a host of most recent polls shows downward movement in his approval and an increase in disapproval.

Additional observations from early polls are Elon Musk and billionaires in general have a very negative image and are seen as having too much power. Several Trump- specific policies are not seen in a positive light, for example, the mass firings and the takeover of Gaza.