The Buzz

Tuesday, October 20, 2026

Democratic Wave Or Just High Tide

Colorado state Rep. Manny Rutinel, D-Commerce City, answers a question during a debate between Democratic candidates running for Colorado's 8th Congressional District, May 28, 2026, in Greeley, Colo. | Brice Tucker/The Greeley Tribune via AP

Even the Republican Congress recognizes their likely loss of a majority on November 3. The primary debate today is not if the Democrats will win but will the new majority just reflect a high tide of 10 or so seats or will it be a wave (around 30 seats) or a tsunami (40 or more seats).

After a week of conversations in Colorado with media, pundits and pollsters, opinion is split but leans toward just high tide. There also appears a majority view that Colorado could end up a 4-4 state on November 3 with no party in charge of Congressional seats.

Local opinion is skeptical of the national polling projections and points to the few truly competitive seats in the county and the impact of reappointment. They also point out the Republican money and local conditions such as candidate and campaign quality that make a difference. Their view that the competitive 8th district may not flip as an example of local conditions.

There was contrary opinion. Some pundits believe the national tide will deliver the 8th CD to the Democrats, and they will run at least close in the 5th CD (El Paso County).

National projections from a host of polling sites and major organizations such as the Hill’s DDHQ from the Hill and the FiftyPlusOne site have President Trump at record low approvals.

Democrats winning the generic ballot by 8 or more points and 30 to 50 seat pickup for the Democrats.

I lean to the wave side of the equation. The national polls are of one view: Dissatisfaction with Trump, inflation and Iran are at historic levels and will cost Republicans huge losses.

Progressive Manny Rutinel wins primary in battleground Colorado House district Politico, 06/30/2026

Tuesday, October 13, 2026

Newsom More Electable than Harris – California Democrats

US Vice President Kamala Harris (R) waves alongside California Governor Gavin Newsom during a campaign event against his recall election at the IBEW-NECA Joint Apprenticeship Training Center in San Leandro, California, September 8, 2021. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP) (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

After six months of testing the presidential waters, California Democrats continue to say: Harris don’t run. In a March 2025 Berkeley IGS poll, Kamala Harris was in weak fourth place (9%) behind Gavin Newsom (28%), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (14%), and Peter Buttigieg (11%) with California Democrats when asked their preference for the Democratic nomination. (See blog Harris Don’t Run-California Democrats, 4-1-2026).

Politico reports in a September poll that “61 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters are excited for Newsom presidential bid.” But more than half of Democrats (55%) would not be excited for a Harris run. More important, 59 percent believe Newsom could win a general election and only 9 percent believe Harris could. Hence, Harris neither has the passion of grass roots support nor the electability issue with more pragmatic Democrats.

RELATED:
Harris Don’t Run-California Democrats Apr. 1, 2026

Monday, October 12, 2026

Boulder County – First Supreme Court Case

Kathleen Kelley - Photo by Kelsey Brunner/For The Washington Post

Kathleen Kelley, former Colorado legislator and longtime Western Slope rancher and environmentalist, made the front page of the Washington Post dramatizing the Supreme Court’s opening case this term - Suncor v. Boulder. She and fellow ranchers suffered massive damages in 2025 from the Lee Fire in Rio Blanco County which they blame on climate change.

Boulder (the city) wants to sue oil companies in Colorado State Court for the damages of climate change. Needless to say, the oil industry and federal government argue this is a federal matter and local jurisdictions should be barred from state actions.

Boulder was on the defensive in the oral argument but it is likely just the first of many approaches to get compensation for climate change.

Should Big Oil Pay for Climate Change? WA Post Article Oct 4, 2026

Friday, October 9, 2026

Ballots Are Out: Will Colorado Move Left or Right?

A ballot drop box is seen outside the downtown office of the Denver Elections Division on June 28, 2022. (Quentin Young/Colorado Newsline).

Mail back voting is underway. Drop boxes open Monday. The state’s 14 ballot propositions could dramatically change the tax architecture and increase spending on education and conservation. Equally important, ten initiatives, mostly of conservative origin, are what I called “an alternative governing model using the ballot initiative process” (Axios).

In a John Frank writeup on the big election fights in Wednesday’s Axios, I point out that Advance Colorado has created “a powerful counter to the Democratic Legislature and the general liberal cultural zeitgeist.”

The director of the organization, Michael Field, has the influence of the TABOR movement of the 1990s but without the difficult and unpleasant Doug Bruce and his statewide network of volunteers. Field uses money and think tank research to access the ballot. In some cases, the threat of going to the ballot puts him, his perspective and interest group funders at the legislative table and in the governor’s office.

Thursday, October 8, 2026

Denver Press Club: Should Election Polls Be Banned?

The Denver Press Club is hosting an election session on polling at 6:00 p.m. October 13 at the Club, 1330 Glenarm Place, downtown Denver. Floyd Ciruli, a longtime Colorado pollster and adjunct professor, will discuss polling’s current problems.

It has had a difficult summer. The Michigan and Wisconsin primaries’ polls were off by more than ten points. There have been reports of fake polls, dozens of new pollsters with no track record, and the end of live phone interviews.

Floyd Ciruli will address these problems with Axios reporter/editor John Frank and Jesse Paul of the Colorado Sun. Also joining are pollsters Lori Weigel of New Bridge Strategies and Alex Dunn of Aspect Strategic. Many European states regulate polling, but it is mostly the wild west in the U.S. Among Ciruli’s topics: Is polling in trouble, or is this year not much different than past midterm primary elections? And, as Coloradans get ready to vote, what should they look for to judge good, shoddy or take polls.

RELATED:
Polling Asserts Its Purpose Sep 28, 2026
Polling’s Difficult Season Sep 21, 2026
Should Polls be Banned? Sep 3, 2026

Tickets are free, but you can RSVP HERE.

Monday, October 5, 2026

National Dashboard: Republican Retreat

President Donald Trump gestures at a campaign rally at The Mitchell Center in Mobile, Ala., Friday, Oct. 2, 2026. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

As the midterm election nears its November 3 conclusion, Republicans are in retreat across the board. Although prodigious amounts of funds keep many campaigns competitive, they are mostly on the defensive. The media environment is flooded by stories of Republicans getting distance from Trump and the administration’s politics.