National Dashboard: Republican Retreat

President Donald Trump gestures at a campaign rally at The Mitchell Center in Mobile, Ala., Friday, Oct. 2, 2026. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

As the midterm election nears its November 3 conclusion, Republicans are in retreat across the board. Although prodigious amounts of funds keep many campaigns competitive, they are mostly on the defensive. The media environment is flooded by stories of Republicans getting distance from Trump and the administration’s politics.

The latest House midterm projections show Democrats winning between 25 to 43 seats. They need 3 to take a majority.

Key factors helping the Democrats:

1. Trump approval now at or below 39%.
2. The generic ballot test about 8 for Democrats.
3. The persistence of the war in Iran and its effect on the economy.

RELATED:
Midterm Panic July 22, 2026
Trump Doesn’t Have the Cards May 26, 2026
National Dashboard: Iran Takes Trump Down April 6, 2026
National Dashboard: Trump in Retreat Feb 23, 2026
Trilogy on Trump’s Declining Approval Dec 15, 2025
Trump Approval Collapses and November 4 Turns Blue Nov 20, 2025

All Big City Mayors Need a Mamdani Picture

Johnston and Mamdani in New York for the Urban20 Summit. Photo: Mike Johnston for Mayor

Mayor Johnston’s reelection campaign had a strong start and is carefully picking its campaign associates given the local political environment.

Polling Asserts Its Purpose

Using a random sampling and door-to-door interviewing 90 years ago, three pollsters predicted a Franklin Roosevelt win. He won in a landslide. Since that dramatic beginning, polling has become a multi-billion dollar industry that dominates politics and political reporting in most advanced democracies.

Do the purposes and benefits that the pioneers articulated still hold? The founding troika of George Gallup, Elmo Roper and Archibold Crossley wanted to get the common American into the room where political decisions were made. They had a strong desire to counter special interests with popular opinion. Gallup, in particular, articulated the benefit of being able to focus on specific issues and providing insights between elections.

It took the missed election result in 1948 when Thomas Dewey was predicted to be the winner that Harry Truman said famously, “That’s not how I heard it,” to motivate pollsters to form an association to improve standards and address inadequacies in methods.

Polling’s purposes and credibility will be discussed at the Tuesday Morning Class (DCC) and Denver Press Club on October 13.

Georgetown Law Stepped Up During Watergate

As he boards the White House helicopter after resigning the presidency, Richard M. Nixon smiles and gives the victory sign. Photo: Bettmann Archive/Getty Images

Georgetown Law worked tirelessly in the late 1970’s to improve the legal environment post-Watergate. One example, in 1976 Sam Dash, who famously was chief counsel for Senator Ervin’s Watergate Committee, taught a strengthened ethics class.

During and after Watergate, Georgetown Law professors and alumni were heroes in the effort to strengthen statutory and legal norms and conventions that had been disregarded and violated. Recall that the Attorney General and White House Counsel went to jail with many other attorneys. Professors from numerous law schools assisted in court cases with Judge Sirica; they aided the Ervin and Rodino committees and worked for years on statutory remedies.

Georgetown Law and other top law schools who were so productive in the 1970’s have a model to help restore the legal and legislative guardrails as America moves beyond 2026.

Polling’s Difficult Season

A record crowd of more than 250 people attend Amb. Chris Hill and Floyd Ciruli presentation after the surprise 2016 election to review the polling and forecasting of the national and international fallout.

The Trump era has been especially challenging for public opinion polling and its media sponsors. The problem was dramatically highlighted in November of 2016 when polling had shown Hillary Clinton winning the voting population by 2 to 4 points (she won by 2.1%) and was projected to carry the electoral vote by 100 or more. She lost it famously by 77 in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

I had the opportunity with the DU Korbel School Dean Christopher Hill to describe to a very unhappy audience what happened. See picture above at DU’s Maglione Hall.

This has been another difficult year for polling. Talking about polling’s purpose, usefulness and efforts to get it right will take place on October 13 at the Tuesday Morning Class(DCC) and later at the Denver Press Club.

Georgetown Law Reunion – Class of 1976

Georgetown University Law Center

The law class of 1976 went through the Watergate scandal, Richard Nixon’s resignation, and the 1974 November Democrat landslide (49 new seats – Watergate Babies). Colorado politics was changed for generations with a new Democratic governor, Dick Lamm, a new Senator, Gary Hart, and a new Congressman, Tim Wirth.

Our class joins hundreds of reunion classmates in two weeks and many will ask if the 2026 election will bring a new congressional class dedicated to again restraining an Imperial Presidency.

My visit will also allow a quick visit to the White House and new ballroom and Lincoln memorial and the reflecting pool – old and new sights in the news.

Metro Denver Sales Tax Revenue Growing

The sales tax revenue in the seven-county Denver metro area in 2025 was up 1.47% above 2024. That was a continuation of the modest improvement in 2025 after two years of flat sales tax growth in 2023 (0.5%) and 2024 (0.1%).

The total revenue collected in 2025 was $87.5 million from one-tenth of a cent provided the Scientific & Cultural Facilities District (SCFD). As of July 2026, the District is slated to receive $51 million or a 2.7% increase. That will likely add about $2 million to the 2026 total revenue or $89 million. The District diverts for administration and statutory obligations about $2 million per year.