The turnout in the 2018 midterm was 76 percent of voters, considered very high for Colorado and nationally. More than 2,581,000 of 3,380,000 registered active voters returned ballots.
As of November 14, 2,557,000 voters turned in ballots that had been counted or less than the total returned in 2018. It equals 67 percent of the 3,825,000 registered voters in the system, a considerable falloff in turnout from 2018.
After a month of leading in many polls, Democrats in early October saw significant erosion of their position. Polling results began to show a trend back toward Republican candidates and preference in the generic ballot test. A Democratic boost based on the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision was short lived. A shift of 4 points was measured in the Monmouth and Siena/New York Times polls toward the Republicans by mid-October. It was noticeable in a host of senate and governors’ races in competitive states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. Analysts attributed the shift to a variety of factors such as the salience of inflation in the media, an unpopular President, and importantly, the normal return to fundamentals of the midterm voters.
In the West, Republicans also began to improve their positions during October in Arizona, Nevada, Oregon and Washington, but late polls show mostly close races. Nevada is now a toss-up state, with Republicans in a slight lead but both the governor and senate race in the margin of error (2 points on November 4). In Arizona, the senate race has grown competitive with Mark Kelly having only a 1-point lead and Kari Lake, the Republican gubernatorial candidate, is now up 2 points. Her strengths may be affecting the senate race. Although Democrat Patty Murray may still win her senate race, the numbers have tightened, and in Oregon, Republican Christine Drazan is ahead in a three-party race in a Blue state.
As of Friday, November 4, four days out from the midterm election, a total of 1,099,847 ballots have been returned and unaffiliated voters are more than 4 points ahead of each of the partisan camps.
Unaffiliated voter registration began surging the last ten years during Colorado decade of rapid growth. It now is more than 700,000 votes ahead of each of the partisan parties. Registration is 46 percent of voters, a jump from 38 percent in 2018. Democrats are 28 percent, Republicans 25 percent.
Both Democratic and Republican governors are ahead of the competition in battleground states where their partisan senate candidates are in difficult fights. Having a strong partisan ally at the top of the ticket has helped many partisans below. Governors tend to be the best known and most influential partisans in a state.
In Pennsylvania—John Fetterman is now only a point ahead, but the Democratic gubernatorial candidate—Josh Shapiro, is up 11. Mike DeWine, popular Republican Ohio Governor is helping Senate candidate J.D. Vance. On the Republican side Brian Kemp in Georgia is up 8 and his fellow partisan senate candidate Herschel Walker has inched ahead 1. Kati Lake in Arizona has moved ahead 2 and the Democrat Mark Kelly, has slipped back to 1 point. In Colorado, Jared Polis has been up more than 10 percent during the campaign and Michael Bennet is holding 5 points opposite a strong opponent. The expected massive victories of Gavin Newsom in California, Greg Abbot in Texas and Ron DeSantis are all helping their respective states partisan tickets.
The 2022 midterm election promises many close races and some surprises. 850 KOA will broadcast live coverage from 6 PM to 11 PM on election night, November 8.
In the booth will be iHeartMedia executive producer Ryan Schuiling managing field reporters and guest interviews. I will join him for political analysis of both the national trends and the Colorado returns, which should flow in quickly after 7:00 PM.
Some questions:
See the blog Ciruli Buzz for more background on the election.
https://fciruli.blogspot.com/
The turnout in the 2018 midterm was 76 percent of voters, considered very high for Colorado and nationally. More than 2,580,000 of 3,380,000 registered active voters returned ballots.
If the turnout percentage is similar this year, Colorado can expect approximately 2,900,000 given the current active registration of 3,800,000.
But If there is less motivation in any of the major voter segments, i.e., younger, Latino, Trump Republicans etc., turnout will then lag and fall below the 2.9 million.
Marty Lenz in our October 28 KOA interview, asked about reported anti-trans advertising targeting Spanish-speaking Colorado voters.
I described it as part of the strategy to reduce Hispanic voter support for Democratic candidates. The new 8th Congressional district, which has 40 percent Hispanic voters, is the likely target. The race is considered one of the most competitive in the country.
The Denver Post and Colorado Sun reported it as a part of a national strategy that claims President Joe Biden and his “leftist allies are indoctrinating your children” with pro-trans information.
READ:
Spanish-speaking Colorado voters target of transphobic mailers
Political analyst Floyd Ciruli discusses the issues facing Colorado voters
LISTEN:
Will Colorado Republicans Get Support from the National Surge? KOA
