Trump’s Low Average is Anti-Trump, Not Pro-Democrat

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., joined by Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., speaks to members of the media following the Republican Senate Policy Luncheon at the U.S. Capitol on Oct. 7, 2025. Kevin Dietsch / Getty Images

President Donald Trump is now consistently more than 15 points negative among voters rating his performance, with an approval frequently below 42 percent and disapproval at or above 55 percent in RealClearPolitics conservative survey site. Viewing his position on other sites such as FiftyPlusOne show Trump 21 points negative with a 38 percent approval. The Decision Desk HQ shows a 41 percent approval, 55 percent disapproval.

However, as Trump’s approval declines, voters do not appear to be endorsing the Democrats’ brand. Seven months out, Democrats only register a 4 to 5 point advantage on the generic ballot. While that is enough to win the House, it’s not a 30 or 40 seat Democratic landslide as the 2006, 2010, and 2018 elections were.

But it may not matter. They may just vote against Trump without really embracing the Democrats, their candidates or issue positions. Historically, approval ratings this low should produce a high turnout of more angry voters at the November mid-term election. It may also demotivate non-MAGA Trump voters from participating. Republican leadership is warning of a disaster and Trump is acting nervous.

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Progressives Upset Old Guard Democrats

Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman, left, and Mayor Karen Bass.
Photos: Jason Armond and Ronaldo Bolanos / Los Angeles Times

Since the mayoral victory of Zohran Mamdani in New York, the biggest reported trend in the Democratic Party has been older incumbents facing younger, usually more “progressive” challengers. And in urban settings the challengers are often members of socialist organizations, (e.g., Democratic Socialists of America).

Two members of the new wave of urban challengers in LA and Denver are significantly younger than their incumbents/opponents, they are South Asian/African, very progressive, and good at social and digital media, especially with younger voters. They tend to be more supportive of Palestinians and represent the cutting edge of the no-more-arms-funding-for-Israel cadre, which is a growing wing of the Democratic Party.

Both candidates are long shots. However Mamdani won, Kiros won a surprise party victory in Denver and is on the ballot, as is Raman in LA, who runs second in many polls.

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Is Karen Bass in Trouble? Yes.

Then-Rep. Karen Bass at the kickoff to her campaign for mayor of Los Angeles on Oct. 16, 2021. (Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)

A Loyola Marymount University poll shows Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass losing to last-minute candidate socialist City Council member Nithya Raman.

The poll’s methodology was questionable in terms of producing an accurate snapshot of the status of the race as of March 16, but it captures the race’s fluidity. All polls conducted so far show an electorate not yet attentive, not too excited about the choices and significantly undecided. In this poll, candidates were given labels. Bass was the incumbent mayor, and a veteran legislator focused on homelessness. Raman was LA City Councilmember, progressive, focused on housing affordability. People voted for the labels as much as the names. Non-incumbent, progressive won.

Except for Bass, the field of candidates is not known and spending in the race is just beginning, so it’s early. But clearly Bass is handicapped by being a veteran establishment mayor of a city government people are not happy with. In addition, her performance during the fire was a major controversy of which she remains vulnerable. Numerous polls show 80% of LA voters would consider someone beyond Bass.

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National Dashboard: Iran Takes Trump Down

Gas prices are displayed at a Shell station in Pasadena, Calif., on March 30, 2026. Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images

President Trump’s 16 percent negative is a new low for his second term. RealClearPolitics’ aggregator website records a 41 percent approval, which is higher than most other political websites due to it including a host of right leaning polling sources whose methods consistently show partisan bias.

One month into the US/Israel Iran War has crushed Donald Trump’s opinion numbers. After a forced retreat in February from Davos and Minnesota, Trump now faces rising gas prices and a down stock market.

His economic performance declined 4 points to the negative in March – from 15 to 19 points. The war produced no rally effect and is opposed by a majority of voters. The cost of living and the economy continue to be the highest priority issues. It is likely Republicans will lose the House. The only question appears to be the size of the swing. Could the Democrats win a majority of the Senate? Still a stretch but Majority Leader Thune has to be concerned for his vulnerable seats.

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Republicans Dominate Jungle Primary for Governor

Photo: CBS News

Numerous news stories have headlined that the crowd of California Democrats in the governor race is making it possible two Republican candidates could be the leading vote getters in the June 2 primary, in spite of California being an overwhelmingly Democratic state. The wide-open feature of the “jungle” primary where the top two candidates regardless of party go to the November general election makes the anomaly of no Democrat in the general election possible.

As the latest IGS poll shows, Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco are ahead with 33 percent of the vote. Next, three Democrats are splitting 36 percent. Five more Democrats trail, scattering 15 percent of the vote. Sixteen percent are undecided with many being unlikely voters.

Editorials have warned Democrats of the possibility and the Democratic party leadership has encouraged but thus far not pushed less successful candidate to exit the race. None have dropped out, even though several have lost support. Xavier Becerra and Antonio Villaraigosa have lost or stayed flat in polls for months. Betty Yee and Tony Thurmond, stalled at 1 percent, are wasting their time. Will anyone of them withdraw and endorse one of the three front runners, Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter or Tom Steyer?

Swalwell has considerable potential as major party leaders and donors haven’t favored Porter (2024 lost senate jungle primary) or Steyer (2020 president-no delegates) in their previous statewide or national efforts. But billionaire Steyer has spent more than $90 million on his campaign, especially for media, and apparently will spend considerably more to become one of the top two.

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Harris Don’t Run – California Democrats

President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have spent years raising money for their re-election campaign. Photo: Eric Lee/The New York Times

The latest California poll from top pollster Mark DeCamillo reports California Democrats rank former vice president and former presidential candidate Kamala Harris a weak fourth (9%) as their choice for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. Governor Gavin Newsom was first (28%) with Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez second (14%) and Pete Buttigieg third (11%).

Obviously, it is years early for dispositive statements but it’s still telling that Harris, who hails California her home and represented Democrats as their senator and attorney general, is losing to two out-of-state political figures for the presidential nomination.

Fourteen candidates were listed in the poll but only six receive 3 percent or more support. Other top choices by Democrats were Senator Mark Kelly (7%) and Governor J.B. Pritzker (3%).

IGS Poll Release #2026-04: Democratic Presidential Preferences

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Broncos Fall From Grace

Empower Field at Mile High - Photo Courtesy of CBS

Peyton Manning led the Denver Broncos into the Super Bowl, losing to the Seattle Seahawks 43 to 8 in 2013. In a poll conducted in the Denver region by Ciruli Associates, the Broncos received 55% “very favorable” rating from voters in October 2013. The Broncos were one of the most popular teams in the NFL. (see attached links)

After a number of head coach and quarterback changes and numerous mediocre seasons, the Broncos improved in 2025 getting to a wild card game but losing to Buffalo Bills in a snow storm 7 to 31. However, in a 2025 poll, in spite of the better season, the Broncos only received a 36% “very favorable” rating.

The polling suggests the Broncos have work to do to win back general fan appreciation. Also, it’s good the ownership doesn’t appear to be interested in a taxpayer-supported new stadium. They would start out in a weak position.

Question 2025:
ONLINE: Please read the names of some organizations and entities in the Denver metro area and indicate whether you have a (ROTATE) favorable or unfavorable opinion of each one. If you have never hears of one, please indicate that.
PHONE I’m going to read you the names of some organizations and entities in the Denver metro area. Please tell me whether you have a (ROTATE) favorable or unfavorable opinion of each one. If you have never heard of one, please just say so.
PHONE IF CHOICE GIVEN: Is that very (favorable/unfavorable) or just somewhat (favorable/unfavorable)?

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