National Dashboard: Trump’s Frantic Final Weeks

CORPUS CHRISTI, TEXAS - OCTOBER 27: U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks during a campaign rally at the Port of Corpus Christi on October 27, 2026 (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Republicans accept the House majority is gone. The only question pollsters, pundits and politicians are debating is how big will the Democratic majority be. Is this:

• a mere high tide of 10 or so seats beyond 218 needed for a majority?
• a wave election like 2006 (Bush) or about 30 seats?
• a tsunami like President Obama’s 2010 shellacking of 40 or more seats?

Trump approval has fallen below 39% (at 35% in FPO) as he campaigns frantically in red states to push MAGAs to vote. Unfortunately, during the last weeks the White House produced chaos in firings, saw inflation jump, the Iran war stall, and a tilt toward Russia against Ukraine.

The generic ballot questions are against Republicans in the conservative RealClearPolitics (RCP) site at 8% and in the FiftyPlusOne average (FPO) 9%.

The latest House midterm projections show Democrats winning between 25 to 49 seats. They need 3 to take a majority. The Senate is still in play but the polls give Democrats a 52 seat majority (FPO 52 and DDHQ 51). Many races are close and within the margin of error. So, expect surprises November 3.

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Midterm Panic July 22, 2026
Trump Doesn’t Have the Cards May 26, 2026
National Dashboard: Iran Takes Trump Down April 6, 2026
National Dashboard: Trump in Retreat Feb 23, 2026
Trilogy on Trump’s Declining Approval Dec 15, 2025
Trump Approval Collapses and November 4 Turns Blue Nov 20, 2025

Coloradans Weigh Transgender Vote

Transgender player AB Hernandez of Jurupa Valley hits the ball during a girls high school volleyball match against Norte Vista at Norte Vista High School in Riverside on Oct. 16, 2025. Photo by Kirby Lee, Getty Images

In a long story, Denver Post reporter Jessica Seaman reviews Proposition 134 that prohibits transgender athletes from playing on-school school sports teams. She reports 27 states have passed prohibitions. I stated that even with Colorado’s liberal reputation, Proposition 134 could pass.

National polling shows that a majority of Americans oppose transgender athletes participating in girls sports, giving Proposition 134 supporters an advantage despite Coloradan being more liberal than residents in many other state, pollster Floyd Ciruli said.

“Out of the 10 ballot measures (in this year’s election), it has a strong chance,” he said in an email. “I haven’t been a state poll, but the national polls show it’s popular. Democratic politicians have a hard time dealing with it.”

Link to article:
Coloradans weigh ban on transgender athletes playing on school teams that match their gender identities
By Jessica Seaman
October 23, 2026

Divas at DAM

Lady Gaga at the 2019 Golden Globe Awards. Photo courtesy of the Denver Art Museum

Denver Art Museum DIVA Exhibition

Congratulations to the Denver Art Museum (DAM) for the spectacular DIVA exhibit. It demonstrates the contribution of major regional institutions with their curatorial expertise and connections, including international. Write up by Esteban Hernandez in Axios Denver (Oct. 8).

Democratic Wave Or Just High Tide

Colorado state Rep. Manny Rutinel, D-Commerce City, answers a question during a debate between Democratic candidates running for Colorado's 8th Congressional District, May 28, 2026, in Greeley, Colo. | Brice Tucker/The Greeley Tribune via AP

Even the Republican Congress recognizes their likely loss of a majority on November 3. The primary debate today is not if the Democrats will win but will the new majority just reflect a high tide of 10 or so seats or will it be a wave (around 30 seats) or a tsunami (40 or more seats).

After a week of conversations in Colorado with media, pundits and pollsters, opinion is split but leans toward just high tide. There also appears a majority view that Colorado could end up a 4-4 state on November 3 with no party in charge of Congressional seats.

Local opinion is skeptical of the national polling projections and points to the few truly competitive seats in the county and the impact of reappointment. They also point out the Republican money and local conditions such as candidate and campaign quality that make a difference. Their view that the competitive 8th district may not flip as an example of local conditions.

There was contrary opinion. Some pundits believe the national tide will deliver the 8th CD to the Democrats, and they will run at least close in the 5th CD (El Paso County).

National projections from a host of polling sites and major organizations such as the Hill’s DDHQ from the Hill and the FiftyPlusOne site have President Trump at record low approvals.

Democrats winning the generic ballot by 8 or more points and 30 to 50 seat pickup for the Democrats.

I lean to the wave side of the equation. The national polls are of one view: Dissatisfaction with Trump, inflation and Iran are at historic levels and will cost Republicans huge losses.

Progressive Manny Rutinel wins primary in battleground Colorado House district Politico, 06/30/2026

Newsom More Electable than Harris – California Democrats

US Vice President Kamala Harris (R) waves alongside California Governor Gavin Newsom during a campaign event against his recall election at the IBEW-NECA Joint Apprenticeship Training Center in San Leandro, California, September 8, 2021. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP) (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

After six months of testing the presidential waters, California Democrats continue to say: Harris don’t run. In a March 2025 Berkeley IGS poll, Kamala Harris was in weak fourth place (9%) behind Gavin Newsom (28%), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (14%), and Peter Buttigieg (11%) with California Democrats when asked their preference for the Democratic nomination. (See blog Harris Don’t Run-California Democrats, 4-1-2026).

Politico reports in a September poll that “61 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters are excited for Newsom presidential bid.” But more than half of Democrats (55%) would not be excited for a Harris run. More important, 59 percent believe Newsom could win a general election and only 9 percent believe Harris could. Hence, Harris neither has the passion of grass roots support nor the electability issue with more pragmatic Democrats.

RELATED:
Harris Don’t Run-California Democrats Apr. 1, 2026

Boulder County – First Supreme Court Case

Kathleen Kelley - Photo by Kelsey Brunner/For The Washington Post

Kathleen Kelley, former Colorado legislator and longtime Western Slope rancher and environmentalist, made the front page of the Washington Post dramatizing the Supreme Court’s opening case this term - Suncor v. Boulder. She and fellow ranchers suffered massive damages in 2025 from the Lee Fire in Rio Blanco County which they blame on climate change.

Boulder (the city) wants to sue oil companies in Colorado State Court for the damages of climate change. Needless to say, the oil industry and federal government argue this is a federal matter and local jurisdictions should be barred from state actions.

Boulder was on the defensive in the oral argument but it is likely just the first of many approaches to get compensation for climate change.

Should Big Oil Pay for Climate Change? WA Post Article Oct 4, 2026

Ballots Are Out: Will Colorado Move Left or Right?

A ballot drop box is seen outside the downtown office of the Denver Elections Division on June 28, 2022. (Quentin Young/Colorado Newsline).

Mail back voting is underway. Drop boxes open Monday. The state’s 14 ballot propositions could dramatically change the tax architecture and increase spending on education and conservation. Equally important, ten initiatives, mostly of conservative origin, are what I called “an alternative governing model using the ballot initiative process” (Axios).

In a John Frank writeup on the big election fights in Wednesday’s Axios, I point out that Advance Colorado has created “a powerful counter to the Democratic Legislature and the general liberal cultural zeitgeist.”

The director of the organization, Michael Field, has the influence of the TABOR movement of the 1990s but without the difficult and unpleasant Doug Bruce and his statewide network of volunteers. Field uses money and think tank research to access the ballot. In some cases, the threat of going to the ballot puts him, his perspective and interest group funders at the legislative table and in the governor’s office.