Becerra and Hilton Go to the Show - Steyer $200 Million for Third

From left, gubernatorial candidates Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton during The Western Growers California Gubernatorial Candidate Forum at Fresno State in Fresno on April 1, 2026. Photos by Larry Valenzuela, CalMatters

The California governor’s, race due to its top two winner configuration (jungle primary), began with an array of not imposing Democratic candidates and opening polls showing Republicans could take the top two spots. My blog “Republicans Dominate Jungle Primary for Governor” described the anomaly.

But the second half of the California race for governor began April 11 when Democratic favorite, Eric Swalwell, dropped out due to allegations of sexual assault. In less than two weeks, Xavier Becerra moved up 10 points to 15 by April 18 and swiftly became the Democratic frontrunner.

At least a part of Becerra’s ascendence were the flaws in the other Democratic voters’ choices:

• Katie Porter. Although she started the race tied with Swalwell, she had lost credibility after her Senate run in 2024. Many party leaders didn’t trust or like her. She never regained traction after the media blowup incident. It validated a long-standing criticism of a harsh temperament.
• Tom Steyer was never fully embraced by the left and it was not in a good moment for Silicon Valley billionaires. With $200 million spent he got close, but at some point the frequency of the message delivery damaged the messenger.
• Matt Mahan was late to the race, lacked charisma and a clear lane. Antonio Villaraigosa’s losing campaigns weighed on his harsh message of lower expectations.

Becerra, with a center left pragmatic demeanor, was a favorable contrast to the hyperbolic politics of the last few years. He seems calm, low key, and thoughtful.

RELATED:
Becerra New Democratic Frontrunner May 19, 2026
Swalwell Out; Becerra vs Steyer May 4, 2026
Republicans Dominate Jungle Primary for Governor Apr 2, 2026

California Pollsters Track the Governor’s Race

(L-R) Democrat Matt Mahan, Democrat Xavier Becerra, Republican Chad Bianco, Republican Steve Hilton, Democrat Tom Steyer and Democrat Katie Porter during a gubernatorial debate at KRON Studios in San Francisco on Wednesday, April 22, 2026.
Pool/Jason Henry/Bloomberg/Getty Images via SFGATE

More than 20 pollsters released polls in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary (Wikipedia) including the long serving mainstays Berkeley IGS and PPIC. The polls did reasonably well as reflected in the FiftyPlusOne and the other averages identifying Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton as the frontrunners and Tom Steyer a close third.

The polls showed the wild movement of the race from Republican-domination earlier in the year to the Eric Swalwell surge then collapse on April 12 and finally the rapid and steady rise of Xavier Becerra. They also showed Katie Porter and Chad Bianco stalled in secondary positions in their respective parties.

Of course, polls affect elections. Democrats were looking for the most viable candidate to support. Becerra was the beneficiary.

RELATED:
Republicans Dominate Jungle Primary for Governor Apr 2, 2026
Swalwell Out: Becerra vs Steyer May 4, 2026

Is Karen Bass in Trouble? Yes. Part Two

Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman, left, and Mayor Karen Bass.
Photos: Jason Armond and Ronaldo Bolanos / Los Angeles Times

As I asked in an April 8 blog, Karen Bass was in such serious trouble she was unable to secure her reelection in the primary. In fact, Bass is so vulnerable her opponent, progressive/socialist Nathya Raman, begins the race ahead in the first poll. Raman with Spencer Pratt, the conservative populist media influencer, mobilized the 65% of LA voters unhappy with the city’s direction and the mayor’s performance.

Raman, argued, “For too long, City Hall has prioritized giving political advantage to powerful interests that fund elections. Meanwhile, working people pay the price in higher rents, depleted services, and a city that has stopped working for them.”

After a close race for second, late voters pushed Raman ahead of Pratt. Wisely, she attacked Pratt, a Trump-endorsed candidate which cost him votes and lifted her as the arch anti-Trump Democrat.

The general election campaign is likely to be very negative but with some interesting policy options. Bass, as the representative of a disliked establishment, will be in a very difficult five-month reelection but will Raman hit a socialist ceiling?

RELATED:
Progressives Upset Old Guard Democrats Apr 13, 2026
Is Karen Bass in Trouble? Yes. Apr 8, 2026

Is DeGette in Trouble?

From left: U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette, attorney Melat Kiros and University of Colorado Regent Wanda James.

Diane DeGette was surprised by the grassroots strength of Democrats who wanted change and supported her novice opponent Melat Keros. Keros won the top spot in Denver county and District assemblies with DeGette barely making the low threshold of 30%. DeGette, a 30-year incumbent Congresswoman about to be a House subcommittee chair if Democrats take control, is facing the same challenge from a younger, left constituency that propelled big city mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani in New York and now Los Angeles Nithya Raman.

In a few recent primaries, DeGette has won overwhelmingly. Another opponent, Wanda James, petitioned on the ballot. Could she lose 30-40% or more of the vote to the two challengers?

RELATED:
Progressives Upset Old Guard Democrats Apr 13, 2026

Keep the SCFD. It’s a National Model

A History of Success in Supporting Popular Cultural Institutions

The Denver metro region’s Scientific and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD) is a unique and nationally envied model for cultural funding in the United States. Since its founding in 1988, it has provided steady funding to more than 200 cultural organizations and programs annually in the seven-county Denver metro area. It has maintained voter support in three elections to renew the tax. In this century the SCFD has received more than 60 percent support in two elections and was approved by a majority of voters in all seven counties in the metropolitan region.

Polling shows that the popularity of its highest profile cultural organizations make up the major contribution to the voter approval. The next most important attribute is the 35-year operational success of the SCFD program. The administration is frugal with limits on its expenditures and has stayed out of politics and controversy. As a government agency it has an exceptionally low negative rating and a positive reputation. Also, a key element for public support is the regional and comprehensive nature of the original funding design. Its three tiers guarantee funding for cultural programs from the local and county level to the region’s largest, most used and valued institutions, and reserves funds for more than 30 mid-sized organizations.

A polling question asked of 600 Denver metro voters in December of 2025 shows the support for the SCFD when it was linked to major cultural facilities throughout the seven Denver counties.

Question:
In an upcoming election, voters in the Denver metro area will vote on whether or not to extend the one-tenth of one-cent sales tax that funds the Scientific and Cultural Facilities District. It is not a tax increase. It helps fund the Zoo, the Botanic Garden, Butterfly Pavillion, museums, performing arts, nature centers and cultural programs and organizations throughout Arapahoe, Adams, Denver, Boulder, Broomfield, Douglas and Jefferson counties.

If you had to vote today, would you definitely support continuing the Scientific and Cultural Facilities District sales tax, probably support it, probably oppose it or definitely oppose continuing the district sales tax?

RELATED:
Art Funding in the Era of Austerity Apr 22, 2026
Denver Region Values Culture - CATZ Mar 25, 2026

Dow Bounces Around 50,000

U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. President Donald Trump, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick attend a cabinet meeting in the Cabinet Room at the White House, in Washington, D.C., U.S., on May 27, 2026. Evan Vucci/Reuters

Our end-of-the-year recap reported: Despite the drama and chaos, the DOW ended the year up 13 points. The third year of double-digit returns (up 12.9 points in 2024 and 13.7 in 2023). The S&P grew 16 points and the NASDAQ composite up 20, mostly driven by the AI investment boom.

We predicted churn. And indeed the war in Iran, accompanied by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, has featured the DOW bouncing more than 9 times around 50,000. It hit 10,000 at the start of the century (1999), then 30,000 in 2020 as the President Donald Trump first term was ending and President Joe Biden about to start. After a volatile period in the early 2020’s, it crossed to 40,000 in March 2024 as Biden began his fraught final campaign. After a brief 21 months, the DOW gained 10,000 points and crossed 50,000 on February 8, 2020.

As long as corporate earnings hold and interest rates and inflation data don’t accelerate, AI investment may continue to drive it upward. As of Friday, May 29, it is now at 51,000.

Trump has always depended on market increases to boost his popularity, but today as the market has increased this year his poll numbers have collapsed to record lows (60% disapproval, 36% approval FPO). His problem is the market is missing voter economic anxiety and growing dislike of him and his administration's performance.

RELATED:
Market Ends Up Despite the Drama and Chaos January 7, 2026
Market Ends Up After Volatile Quarter July 3, 2025
Trump’s Agenda Could be Volatile for Market December 16, 2024

Polis Roughed up by Democrats

Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, left, shakes hands with U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet at a Colorado Mesa University candidate forum, 2022. Photo: Christopher Tomlinson/The Daily Sentinel

Colorado Democratic political class has turned abruptly and loudly against Governor Jared Polis. As he approaches the end of an eight year term, Polis, knowing the likely political consequences, commuted the sentence of election denier Tina Peters.

As Mark Barabak wrote in the LA Times, Polis was criticized by fellow Democrats and many Republicans – including Peters’ prosecutor and a majority of Colorado’s election clerks. Senator Bennet, the Democratic candidate for governor to replace Polis, made it a major talking point. “It was a disqualifying decision” for me appointing Polis to the Senate.

In an understatement, I said, “He was aiming for a national profile. This makes it much more difficult.” In fact, his political career in Colorado has likely taken a blow difficult to recover from. Nationally, he was second tier, now he’s out of consideration.

LA TIMES ARTICLE:
Three wrongs don’t make a right in case of election denier and Colorado governor
THE GRAND JUNCTION DAILY SENTINEL ARTICLE:
Peters fallout: Bennet wouldn't appoint Polis to Senate as guv; Vance says Peters eligible for fund