Thursday, February 6, 2025

Will Republicans Lose The House?

Trump and Johnson in Miami, Florida Photo: REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File PhotoTrump and Johnson in Miami, Florida. Photo: REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo

History shows the 2026 mid-term should punish President Trump and Republicans, at least costing them their 5-seat majority in the House. In 2018, as Trump focused on caravans in Mexico and Democrats abortion, the first two years of chaos saw a 41-seat loss and brought Trump’s nemesis, Nancy Pelosi, to the speakership. Barack Obama and Joe Biden had similar experiences.

First Mid-Term Election Table

Will Trump be different in the 2026 mid-terms? The following reflects a dialogue with Denver Metro Mayors Caucus at their annual retreat:

  • Trump has been here before and realizes the danger of 2026. Since the election tends to be a referendum on Presidential performance, he could adjust the pace and volume of disruption.
  • Anticipating the controversial aspect of his agenda, Trump picked cabinet officers who are both loyal and proven communicators, especially on Fox News and alternative venues. All the disruption will be better defended than in the first term.
  • The “shock and awe” and “Flood the Zone” strategies have fragmented and muted most opposition. The Democratic counter attack has yet to gain traction.
  • Democrats are still struggling with what happened. In 2016, a close election looked like an anomaly and Trump’s first two years of chaos was great campaign material. But his 2024 win, while historically close, left no doubt he had made inroads into the Democratic coalition and was dominating the top issues of economy, immigration and cultural overreach.

But it is very early, and Trump’s policies are highly disruptive. His approval, the market, living cost, and unemployment could move in a negative direction.

Wednesday, February 5, 2025

Colorado Enters a New Era of Austerity

On a snowy January morning, more than thirty Denver metro mayors were presented a darker, more challenging vision of Colorado’s next few years. Pollster Floyd Ciruli reported that the boom in population and economic activity generated from 2010 to 2020 came to an abrupt halt in the pandemic. Colorado is now entering a more difficult environment where local government will have less sales tax revenues and face escalating costs just as federal funds are diminishing.

Ciruli shared these main points:

  • Colorado is entering a new era following the booming 2010 decade. This isn’t a one or two year shift.
  • Population that went up nearly 15 percent (744,000) from 2010 to 2020 and added a new Congressional seat has now slowed to a trickle in the metro area. The inflow of one recent new group of residents, migrants, will end completely.
  • Job growth in Colorado is slowing and unemployment is climbing.
  • Sales tax which is the main source of revenue for cities has been flat in the metro region for two years (see chart below).
  • The contraction of tax revenue is happening just as cities face increased costs due to general inflation and spikes in the costs of labor. Cities and the state are struggling to balance their books.
  • COVID relief dollars have ended and federal funding is entering a period of austerity.

The new era will require shifting priorities, including increasing the focus on the economy and directing government’s attention to small business, job creation, and the cost of living.

Denver Metro Area Sales Tax Revenue Change

Friday, January 24, 2025

Five Guardrails Around Trump

Inaugural SpeechTrump speaking at the Presidential Inauguration | Photo: Chip Somodevilla, Getty Images
Post-election analysts give President Donald Trump’s advantage on the economy the most credit for his win. It was largely based on a nostalgia, and for new voters his reputation as having produced a good economy during his first term.

But there was considerable amnesia about the first term’s chaos even as Democrats spent most of their campaign efforts targeted at Trump’s misbehavior, i.e., Jan. 6, impeachments, convictions, indictments, etc. As the administration starts, will chaos come back into view?

President Trump’s win was narrow but he is governing as if it is a mandate, using executive orders and broad emergency decrees. However, there are guardrails on his behavior. His approval rating of 47 percent is high for Trump but could turn down in the first 100 days. Most observers see a burst of inflation due to the disruption of tariffs, and mass deportation. If an economic slowdown begins, unemployment will go up from record low of 4.1 percent and the market could drop after a year-end 23 percent return. Finally, Republicans only have a 4 vote House majority to move legislation.

Five Guardrails Around Trump
Although political and legal guardrails may be less potent today, the Five Guardrails using recognized political and economic data will start to measure the success and blowback from “shock and awe.”

Friday, January 17, 2025

Trump Won Close Election But Considers It "No Limit Mandate"

Donald Trump Swearing In CeremonyDonald Trump Swearing In Ceremony January 20, 2017

The last three presidential elections have been close. But Donald Trump is treating his election as a landslide. To his numerous legal investigations and threats, he argues, “The voters have spoken.” Shortly after noon January 20, he will sign hundreds of executive orders on the first day as “only a dictator on day one.”

But the election results show he only received 6 more electoral votes than Joe Biden in 2020, got a lower percentage of the vote (49.9%) and fewer total votes. Trump’s vote spread was not only well behind Biden’s but was less than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016. Total voter turnout was lower in 2024 than 2020 and Trump received fewer votes than Biden.

Presidential Election Results

Thursday, January 16, 2025

Metro Mayors Assess the 2025 Politics

Denver Metro Area Map
Denver Metro Area Map courtesy of www.larryhotz.com
The seven county metro mayors will assess the new 2025 political environment at their annual retreat.

Floyd Ciruli will discuss the quarter century of change in the state that increased the population by 37 percent to nearly 6 million and from a presidential battleground state with a slight Republic tilt to a safe Democratic state with unaffiliated voters in the majority.

As the new Trump Administration begins, Colorado’s relationship with Washington will change at the same time its population growth, economy, and fiscal health is being challenged.

The Metro Mayors’ Caucus was founded in 1993 to assist mayors dealing with multi- jurisdictional challenges. They now have 38 member municipalities represented. The current leadership is:

Chair Laura Weinberg Golden
1st Chair Gayleen Castriotta Broomfield
2nd Chair Kyle Schlochter Littleton
Bud Starker Wheat Ridge
Jan Kulmann Thornton
Meredith Leighty Northglenn
Jason Gray Castle Rock
Greg Mills Brighton
Alan Paul Director Regional Affairs Denver
Liz Rogers Intergovernmental Relations Aurora

Wednesday, January 15, 2025

UCI 2024 Election Panel: What Happened and Why

UCI Social Ecology

UCI’s School of Social Ecology organized a post-2024 election panel on the “Lessons from the 2024 Election in Orange County and Beyond.”

Three panels, assembled on December 6, included many of the best reporters with the Los Angeles Times and other media outlets. Some of the panelists were:

  • Mark Barabak, Columnist, LA Times
  • Melanie Mason, Reporter, Politico California
  • Jenny Medina, Reporter, NY Times
  • Seema Mehta, Reporter, LA Times
  • Laura Nelson, Reporter, LA Times
  • Laurel Rosenhall, News Manager, LA Times

The conversation ranged widely and offered the belief that has only grown since, that the relatively close November election will have a major effect on the two parties and American politics for the foreseeable future– we have entered a new era of power.

Tuesday, January 14, 2025

Orange County Has a New Poll

UCI Social Ecology

UC Irvine and its School of Social Ecology are conducting and publishing polls focused on the residents of Orange County. Recent headlines show its topics concerning the just-completed 2024 election but also salient issues of county residents in general. The poll results regularly appear in the LA Times and Orange County Register.

  • Many OC residents skeptical of election results, potentially swaying key races, poll finds. Hannah Fry, LA Times 4-29-24
  • “We just can’t afford to live here!” Housing costs are driving people out of Orange County. Hannah Fry, LA Times 8-9-24
  • Poll: Half of Orange County considers move, weighs price vs. quality of life. Andre Mouchard, OC Register 8-14-24
  • Economy Sways Local Voters. Hannah Kang, OC Register 12-6-24
  • How OC’s diverse electorate is shifting. Hanna Kang, OC Register 12-12-24
  • The poll is directed by the school’s top administrator, Dean Jon Gould. He initiated it three years ago, shortly after assuming leadership of the School of Social Ecology. I consulted with Jon on the polling start-up and have been impressed with the speed and quality of the project.

    The school is also sponsoring panels and other events with state and national academics, analysts, and political reporters to engage UCI students, faculty, administrators and local residents. The most recent election panel entitled “What Happened and Why” attracted a large audience with many of California’s top political reporters and columnists. It received extensive media coverage.

    UCI and the School of Social Ecology have greatly enhanced their visibility while offering expertise concerning social and political issues in Orange County.

    Congratulations, UCI and SSE.