Midterm Elections: Current Predictions

United States Capitol National Park Service photo by Mike Litterst

Midterm projections of the likely House and Senate seat swings in the 2026 November election are being published regularly. In the Senate, the Republicans continue to hold an advantage with most projections at best having a 50-50 Senate (3 seat swing to Democrats) with the VP having the tie vote and Republicans the right to control committees and the agenda. However, given President Trump’s weak allegiance from 2 or more Senators, it would be a difficult body to manage in 2027.

The House appears more likely to swing Democratic if the projections are correct. Democrats only need three seats for control and most projections are well beyond that number. If vacancies were filled, the current House would be 216 Dem. to 218 Rep.

The average first midterm election loss for the President’s party since LBJ in 1962 has been 22 House seats. The following chart shows some of the exceptional midterm swings. The 2026 midterm swing looks more modest due to the political system’s rigidity, polarization, negative partisanship, and state level redistricting.

RELATED:
Midterm Panic July 22, 2026
Midterm Elections: Tsunami or Minor Wave July 20, 2026

Colorado Party Disrupters

Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., left, and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., right, scream "Build the Wall" as President Joe Biden delivers his first State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress at the Capitol, Tuesday, March 1, 2022, in Washington. (Evelyn Hockstein/Pool via AP)

Melat Kiros, a Democratic socialist running to unseat U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette, speaks from the steps of the Colorado State Capitol Sunday, June 14. (Adrian O’Farrill, Rocky Mountain PBS via the Colorado Capitol News Alliance)

Both of Colorado’s political parties have seen long-time incumbents lose primaries to outside the parties’ disrupters. In 2020, Lauren Boebert defeated 5-term Republican Congressman Scott Tipton. Closely associated with President Donald Trump, she was highly controversial and decided to switch to a safer district in 2024. She is currently the state’s most high-profile Republican but she is in some trouble with the MAGA base.

This year, 15-term Congresswoman Diane DeGette lost the Democratic nomination to non-politician and socialist Melat Kiros. She has received national attention and her socialist label and aggressive domestic and Middle East agendas will keep her in news. Kiros is already one of Colorado’s highest profile Democrats.

Could Boebert be Beaten?

LEFT: U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert. (Photo by Shaun Stanley/Special to The Denver Post) | RIGHT: Eileen Laubacher, the Democratic nominee in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District in the 2026 election. (Campaign handout)

Colorado’s High Plains 4th Congressional District is the Republican Party’s safest seat. President Trump, while losing Colorado in all three of his elections, carried the 4th CD, including most recently by 58 percent to 40 percent for Kamala Harris (l54% Harris to 43% Trump).

Denver Post’s John Aguilar wrote a background on the 2026 race between Lauren Boebert and the new Democratic nominee Eileen Laubacher. His question was, “Is there a competitive contest?” The answer from CSU Professor Kyle Saunders and myself was possible but very unlikely, primarily because of the partisan advantage Republicans have in both registration and voting behavior.

Political analyst Floyd Ciruli also cautioned that cash alone may not be able to overcome the reality of the district’s political makeup. Republicans have 100,000-plus more registered voters than Democrats. “I’m not sure that money is the actual issue in this district,” Ciruli said.

Aguilar’s analysis pointed out:

• 2026 is likely to be a good Democratic year for winning House seats.
• Laubacher has $10.3 million compared to Boebert’s $1.1 million.
• Boebert has antagonized President Trump (Epstein investigation and support for Republican dissident Tom Massie). Is the base angry enough to send a Democrat to DC?
• Boebert did not secure an appropriation for a water pipeline in the District and could have even less clout in the next House.
• In spite of some advantages, Laubacher will need a very strong campaign message and ground game targeted at independents, moderates and people ready for a change. And a lot of luck.

Laubacher can pound themes on the campaign trail that are particularly salient to the largely agricultural district, Ciruli said, like high fuel and fertilizer prices in the midst of the U.S. war with Iran and added costs for farmers due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs. “You have to convince the farmer in Sterling or in Fort Morgan that they’re not getting enough representation and they need to move to a Democrat,” he said.

RELATED:
Boebert’s Last Term? April 6, 2023

The Bennet Collapse

U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet hugs his supporters after conceeding to Phil Weiser in the Democratic gubernatorial primaries on Tuesday. (Stephen Swofford/The Denver Gazette)

The narrative of Democratic politics since the New York mayoral election of November 2025 has been that of young idealistic voters challenging political establishments, especially urban, and winning. Seattle, Washington, D.C. and L.A. have seen several successful socialism espousing candidates. It just hit the Colorado June 30 primary, and incumbents and establishment politicians are out of office.

Thirty-year incumbent, Congresswoman Diane DeGette, was the most obvious casualty but Senator Michael Bennet was also a victim of the framework now established for Democratic primaries. As a long-time establishment D.C. politician, Bennet and his team planned to overwhelm his opponent, Attorney General Phil Weiser, with name identification, endorsements, and money. All normally critical but now seen as signs of the establishment and status quo.

Polling indicated he was a two-to-one leader for most of the last year and into early 2026. But when the polls showed the race tightening, he and his Super PAC ramped up negative ads and he loaned his campaign $1 million The public polling available and media reports described a close race the last two months. His position collapsed the final two weeks as undecided voters moved to Weiser. Most observers believed Denver was beyond his winning in early June. He lost in Denver two to one (66% to 34%), and the Denver region by 59% on his way to losing statewide by 14 points.

RELATED:
Bennet’s Luck Ran Out July 13, 2026
Polling and the New York Primary Warned the Establishment – Change is Coming July 6, 2026

Midterm Panic

FIFA President Gianni Infantino, U.S. President Donald Trump, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney during the awards ceremony after the FIFA World Cup 2026 Final match between Spain and Argentina at New York New Jersey Stadium on July 19, 2026, in East Rutherford, New Jersey. | Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

President Trump is in major panic over likely midterm loss of the House and from some risk in the Senate. That panic is in spite of a slight improvement in approval rating and the generic ballot during the last two months, although both remain in the danger zone for a midterm House loss that would shift control.

The Hill website has released its Decision Desk Headquarters report showing that there is a 61% chance the Democrats take the House and a 57% probability the Republicans hold the Senate.

DDHQ Report
	Dem.	Rep.
House	226	209
Senate	50	50

Trump continues to work to increase the Republican advantage with state level reapportionment, various federal initiatives to influence the voting process and use of public relations events (World Cup).

Key factors helping the Democrats:

1. Trump approval mostly at or below 40%
2. The generic ballot test about 4 has been 7 on the averages.
3. The unpopularity of the war in Iran and Trump performance on the economy.

RELATED:
National Dashboard: Trump Doesn’t Have the Cards May 26, 2026
National Dashboard: Iran Takes Trump Down Apr 6, 2026
National Dashboard: Trump in Retreat Feb 23, 2026
Trilogy on Trump’s Declining Approval Dec 15, 2025
Trump Approval Collapses and November 4 Turns Blue Nov 20, 2025

The 2026 Primary Turnout About Average

A voter casts their ballot at a drop box in Denver on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, in this file photo. (AP Photo/Chet Strange, File)

The 35 percent turnout was predicted by this blog (The 2026 Democratic Primary Turnout) due to comparison with the similar highly-contested 2018 election. And indeed, while there were a few more voters in 2026, overall turnout percentage remained the same.

The late voter turnout has become common in contested elections when the candidates push and pull their votes to the polls. Campaigns with many volunteers and targeting young people especially tend to turn out late (i.e., mail arrives later and Monday and election day dropoffs ramp up). In Democrat primaries, that means the most liberal (2026 socialist) candidates tend to pick up votes as the counting includes later voters.

The general election turnout percentage tends to double from the primary. In 2018, the turnout of active voters in November was 75% of 2.5 million, and of active voters, 65% of 2.5 million of 3.9 registered million. Note: additional people registered between the primary and general election. It is likely the November 2026 turnout will double from the primary. Although there are few strongly contested partisan races expected, there will likely be well-funded ballot issue campaigns.

Midterm Elections: Tsunami or Minor Wave

President Donald Trump speaks in the East Room of the White House, Thursday, July 16, 2026, in Washington. (Saul Loeb/Pool via AP)

The average first midterm election loss for the President’s party since 1962 has been 22 House seats. The following chart shows some of the exceptional midterm swings.

Is President Trump heading toward a 40 to 60 seat tsunami, or a more restrained 20 to 30 seat shift with a change in control of the House? Could the Democrats fail to win a majority?