The 2026 Colorado Election Season Starts

The 2026 election campaign for Colorado’s top political jobs revved up with the long primed announcement of 14-year incumbent U.S. Senator Michael Bennet entering the Democratic primary for governor. Already announced Democratic Attorney General Phil Weiser immediately countered that Bennet was needed in D.C. to fight the Trump administration. What’s he doing in Colorado?

Colorado’s other Senator John Hickenlooper plans to run for reelection. Both Hickenlooper and Bennet, as senior legislators of a moderate sensibility, are dealing with the same challenge – a party that wants more fight out of its D.C. leaders. Or, as Bennet was told at a recent raucous voter town hall, “Step up or step aside.”

Democrats tend to start early given that in recent years winning the primary has been tantamount to election. Republicans have selected some new party officers more interested in winning than MAGA purity, but after President Trump’s 80 plus day run of executive orders and policy pronouncements, he is still the dominant image of the party – a problem in Colorado. Primary candidates will be judged by their fidelity to Trump and his agenda on a scale that tilts very much toward Trump.

Although both Hickenlooper and Bennet failed in their presidential nomination road show in 2019, they both have major advantages in their upcoming races. Hickenlooper’s slightly off-kilter personality has been a political winner in Colorado since his 2003 Denver mayoral victory. He will have endorsements and money, so age and moderation are unlikely to derail his effort to retire from the Senate in 2032 at 80. Bennet has already gathered the state’s top Democratic political endorsement (Neguse, Crow, Hickenlooper) and will likely attract all the funding he needs.

Advance Colorado Takes on Sanctuary Cities

From left: Denver Mayor Michael Johnston, Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu and David J. Bier, Director of Immigration Studies at the Cato Institute, are sworn in during a House Oversight and Government Reform Committee hearing on sanctuary cities' policies at the U.S. Capitol on March 5, 2025, in Washington, D.C.
Alex Wong / Getty Images

Ballot Issues Pull Colorado to Right

President Trump is threatening so-called Sanctuary Cities on his media platform, Truth Social.

“No more Sanctuary Cities! They protect the Criminals, not the Victims. They are disgracing our Country, and are being mocked all over the World.”

“Working on papers to withhold all Federal Funding for any City or State that allows these Death Traps to exist!!!”

Given the chaos the administration has caused in its first 80 days, cities and states vulnerable to the sanctuary city label such as Denver, and possibly Colorado, should be concerned about federal funding flows.

But an even larger problem for Colorado’s immigrant rights advocates is Advance Colorado, an influential Colorado-based political action committee with a proposed ballot initiative that would limit funding for undocumented immigrants and require local police authorities to check the immigration status of certain criminal suspects such as those charged with violent crime and having prior felony convictions.

Colorado may appear a “blue” state in terms of its voting for partisan offices, legislation and the policies of many cities, but in fact the state frequently votes “red,” for example, on initiatives that take a conservative position on hot button issues such as crime. In the 2024 statewide ballot election, initiatives related to a tougher position on criminal law enforcement and punishment won easily.

Some facts about Advance Colorado:

1. Ballot issues are the primary threat restraining liberal forces in the state legislature. Governor Polis often uses the group’s specific and implied threats as a restraint on his party-related to:
   • environmental issues
   • tax issues
   • labor/union issues
2. Advance Colorado’s ballot strategy has the benefit of being well funded, mostly unreported and with high profile professional leadership.

READ
After Failures in the Courts, the GOP Is Threatening Sanctuary City Mayors Truthout, March 7, 2025
How Denver and Nearby Cities Are Responding to ICE Westword, February 19, 2025

Brian Vogt Transformed the Gardens

Brian Vogt photo: Monarch Society

When Brian Vogt began as director of the Denver Botanic Gardens in 2007, the attendance was below half a million visitors a year. In 2024, the last year before his passing, attendance exceeded 1.4 million.

Brian transformed the modest but well-cared-for gardens into a regional asset that millions appreciate with a large satellite park in Arapahoe County and new, expanded, and upgraded facilities on the main campus in the heart of Denver at Cheesman Park.

Under Brian’s leadership, the Gardens hosted major art shows, for example, the Chihuly Glass, and has a regular schedule of summer concerts and music in its natural amphitheater.

His enthusiasm and dedication to making the Denver Botanic Gardens a people’s space will be missed. His life work is an enormous legacy for the Denver region.

Trump, Tariffs, and the Crash

President Donald Trump holds up a chart of reciprocal tariffs chart
Photo: Chip Somodevilla Getty Images

It took Joe Biden until August of 2021, a full 7 months into his term, to lose his approval majority. After the Afghanistan withdrawal, he never came even close to closing the negative gap between the public disapproval and approval. He had failed on his claimed expertise, managing foreign policy.

Donald Trump first crossed into negative approval territory on March 14. It followed the wild first 53 days into the Administration, but April 2 “Liberation Day” is likely to be more like Biden’s chaos and pain than a celebration. Approval of his economic performance is a negative 10 points. If the public concludes Trump is not good for the economy, his claimed area of expertise, he and his party will be in serious political jeopardy.

After April 2, his approval went from 1 point down to 4 in a matter of days, while all the major market indexes passed from correction territory (down 10% from their peak) to at or near bear markets (down 20%). Trump was president in the last market crash of March 2020 as business activity began closing due to the pandemic. The economy then went into a brief recession. The odds of a slowdown in economic growth and recession have grown dramatically in the last week, in spite of the tariff pause.

The National Dashboard is a Buzz platform showing the state of public opinion for the presidential approval. It tracks key indicators on the economy, direction of the country, and competition for the U.S. House of Representatives. It primarily uses RealClearPolitics (RCP) but makes comparisons to Gallup and other polls, as reported in Opinion Today.

RELATED:
Trump Starts at Record Low Feb 13, 2017
Trump Approval Weak, But Better on Economy Than Foreign Policy Feb 22, 2017

Signal Gate: What We Learned

2017 (left) and 2025 (right)
Photos: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters and Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Five observations about Trump’s 2025 Administration were highlighted by the media and others from Signal Gate. First, although there may be mostly new players in the Trump Oval office, the show is still as chaotic and amateurish as 2017.

• Stephen Miller as the chief loyalist has the final word on Trump think – “The President was clear: green light” was his final comment.
• Vance will cross Trump to push his view. In this case, no benefits for Europe. “I just hate bailing out Europe again.”
• Contrast and criticism of Biden is important for policy and messaging. “Biden failed, Biden cratered.”
• If mistakes are made, attack the media: Goldberg gets Woodward and Bernstein award.

Signal Gate will make a contribution to President Trump’s approval about 70 days into the new Administration. As of April 1, he is down two points in approval since the inauguration; 2 points, year to date, in the Dow; 5 points in the S & P, and 10 points in the NAZ. Republicans’ most serious challenge today is their slim House majority. Pulling the Elise Stefanik nomination as UN Ambassador was a “tell” that Trump and Speaker Johnson are concerned. The Wisconsin Democratic win and Republican underperformance in Florida confirm their concern.

NISP Is on the Move

Glade Rendering, Northern Water

After more than 20 years, the Northern Integrated Supply Project (NISP) has cleared a final litigation hurdle and can accelerate already-begun construction.

In 2005, Ciruli Associates conducted the first of several opinion surveys in the NISP service area of Larimer, northern Boulder, Weld, and Morgan counties. The public was highly supportive of the project and its goals of securing water for the municipalities and other providers.

Today, the project is estimated to cost $2 billion, paid for by water users. In 2005, the estimated cost was less than half a billion dollars. The inflation cost of construction delay, environmental studies, mitigation, and finally litigation more than tripled the budget.

To the extent project delays are reduced, the federal government would be doing a great service for citizens in arid regions. But for now, congratulations to the many water leaders and managers that brought this project to this successful point. All of Colorado can celebrate as another water project joins the list of successful projects completed in the 21st century.

RELATED:
Congratulations to Northern Water Dec 20, 2022
Protecting Colorado’s Water Jan 6, 2022

How Low Can Trump Go?

From left, U.S. National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images/File

Donald Trump has never been a popular president. At the beginning of his first term, he had a record low approval after a “poorly rated” transition (Ciruli blog, 2-13-17). He started with a 40 percent approval and 45 disapproval which after three weeks became 50 percent (RTC average). Gallup pointed out Trump was the first president since approval polling began (1953, Eisenhower) for start-up approval to be below 50 percent.

His four-year average approval, as recorded by Gallup, was 41 percent with 55 percent disapproval. His approval was in a steady and narrow range with a low ceiling (49%) and a solid 35% floor. On his exit from the White House in 2021, he was at the floor in terms of public approbation.(Ciruli blog,1-20-21)

After a more than a two-month fight against the transition of power culminating in the January 6 riot at the US Capitol, Trump’s approval rating from numerous national polls was in the 30’s:

• Gallup – Trump approval 34%
• RCP – Trump approval 39%, disapproval 57%
• 538 – Trump approval 38%, disapproval 58%

Although his starting approval in 2025 for the second term was higher for him, it was still low and met a surging disapproval that signaled the end of the honeymoon as his negative rating exceeded the positive 53 days (March 14) into the new administration.(Ciruli blog,3-20-25)

• January 20 – RCP / 538 – Trump approval 50% and disapproval 43%
• March 14 – RCP approval 47% (down 3) and disapproval 48% (up 5)

Trump is unlikely to be approved by a majority of Americans during the rest of his term if it flows as the first 53 days, and his negatives could rise above 55 percent. At that point, Trump begins to lose his many Republican “friends” in the House.

RELATED:
Trump Starts at Record Low February 13, 2017
Trump Leaves Office With Record Disapproval January 20, 2021
Trump’s Approval Eclipsed – National Dashboard March 20, 2025