Monday, October 7, 2024

Caraveo Reelection in Danger

Yadira Caraveo and Gabe EvansYadira Caraveo and Gabe Evans

A new poll confirms the observation of most political analysts, Yadira Caraveo’s Democratic House seat is in danger of loss to Republican Gabe Evans. The poll shows a 44% to 44% split, with independent voters preferring Evans by 43% to 35%. She wins Hispanic voters by 9 points, 42% to 33%.

The seat had been shifted to toss-up from “lean” Democrat by the Crystal Ball rating service in early August.

Colorado Congressional Seat Shifts

The district was designed in the 2020 redistricting to be competitive and Caraveo barely won her 2022 inaugural election. She failed to establish much of a political presence the last two years and lags in favorability in the poll 49% for Evans, a one term state legislator, to 43% for her.

The poll was published by Fox 31 / Channel 2/ Emerson College (n 525 ± 42 points)

Colorado Congressional Districts, 118th CongressTwotwofourtysix, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

RELATED:
Caraveo Moved to Toss-Up Aug 8 2024

Friday, October 4, 2024

CU Denver Panel on Colorado Ballot Proposals

CU Denver School of Public AffairsCU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On Friday, October 11th, 2024, Colorado ballot issues will be examined by a panel of media and political experts hosted by CU Denver School of Public Affairs from 5:30 to 7:00 p.m. Pollster and Senior Fellow, Floyd Ciruli, will moderate this panel.

Direct democracy is appealing to some voters who believe there are problems legislators don’t address and a ballot initiative can be a solution. But many are concerned by the volume and complexity of the proposals, and 2024 is an example of the issue. Fourteen propositions crowd the ballot ranging from animal rights to guns and from abortion to criminal justice and education. Some, if passed, represent significant changes to public policy which is not necessarily evident in the ballot wording.

The Panel
Discussing the proposals will be:
Jesse Aaron Paul, reporter, editor, the Colorado Sun, covering state legislature, Congress, and local politics
Seth Klamann, reporter Denver Post, covering statehouse, policy and elections
Kevin Flynn, Denver City Councilman, District 2 (southwest), former Rocky Mountain news reporter
Greg Sobetski, chief economist for Legislative Council with Colorado General Assembly
Floyd Ciruli, panel moderator, pollster, Senior Fellow, CU Center School of Public Affairs

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend panel here.

The Colorado Ballot: Seismic Decisions
October 11, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200, Denver, Colorado

RELATED:
Colorado’s Direct Democracy Produces Torrent of Proposals 10/02/24
The Colorado Ballot: Seismic Decisions 10/03/24

Thursday, October 3, 2024

The Colorado Ballot: Seismic Decisions

CU Denver School of Public AffairsCU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On Friday, October 11, 2024, several of Colorado’s ballot issues will be examined by a panel of legislative and media experts hosted by CU Denver’s School of Public Affairs. Seven citizen initiatives and seven referred by legislature are on the 2024 ballot. Pollster and Senior Fellow, Floyd Ciruli, will moderate this panel that takes place from 5:30 to 7:00 pm. Participants can attend in person or online.

A proliferation of issues this year range from having a narrow impact to affecting the entire state’s policy and political process. Panelists will discuss whether this is the best way to legislate tax, election rules, wildlife management and culture policy? What are the downsides?

Some issues to examine include:

  • How many of the initiatives are multimillion dollar campaigns that involve signature collection, legal/political consulting and media. The election reform initiative, for example, is part of a well-funded, multistate, multi-year effort to change election rules. Campaigns are frequently one sided in their resources.
  • Initiatives can be used for negotiating with the legislature. In 2024, a triumvirate of the governor, legislative leadership and business-related interest groups changed tax policy.
  • Which are part of national or regional interests wanting to use Colorado’s ballot access and voters for their agendas including fundraising and turnout. This is especially true of cultural issues, e.g., gun control, animal rights, abortion, crime, etc.
  • Why the legislature is getting into the ballot referral process more frequently.
  • How the volume and complexity of the issues can overwhelm voters.
  • Direct democracy involving 14 issues is a challenge for Blue Books and their legislative council draftsmen.

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend the panel discussion, either in person or remotely, here.

The Colorado Ballot: Seismic Decisions
October 11, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200
Denver, Colorado

RELATED:
Colorado’s Direct Democracy Produces Torrent of Proposals 10/02/24

CU Denver Panel Reviews Our Tumultuous Election Year

CU Denver School of Public AffairsCU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram
On September 6th, the CU Denver School of Public Affairs hosted a panel of Colorado political experts to discuss Election 2024: Colorado and the Country at a Crossroads. More than 80 participants (in person and online) joined brief presentations from the panel and an hour of moderator and audience questions.

The panel, moderated by Pollster and Senior Fellow Floyd Ciruli, reflected on the extraordinary political year after President Biden’s weak debate performance on June 27th and his withdrawal from the race on Sunday, July 21st. The panelists, including a political reporter and representatives from both Democratic and Republican political parties, opined that Kamala Harris might not have been the strongest Democratic replacement candidate but she nevertheless had an extraordinary ascension to the nomination. Harris and Donald Trump are now in a toss-up race. 

Only one of Colorado’s three open Republican congressional seats, the 3rd congressional district on the Western Slope, is still considered worth watching. The newest Democratic seat, encompassing Adams and Weld County (8th), is considered a tossup. 

Many of the 14 statewide ballot issues could have considerable political consequences related to criminal justice (sentencing, bail, funding) school choice and wildlife management. Possibly the most significant initiative will introduce an all candidate, open primary and ranked choice voting – its ramifications representing a dramatic election change for Colorado. 

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs website for more information on future panels here

Sheila MacDonald, media commentator, Democratic political consultant, manager of candidate and ballot issue campaign manager 
Dick Wadhams, media commentator, Channel 4 analyst, consultant, former Republican chair 
Marianne Goodland, chief legislative reporter, Colorado Politico, president of the Denver Press Club
Floyd Ciruli, panel moderator, Senior Fellow, CU Denver School of Public Affairs
Sheila MacDonald, Dick Wadhams, Marianne Goodland and Floyd Ciruli
READ:
Election 2024: Colorado and Country at a Crossroads 09/04/2024

Wednesday, October 2, 2024

Are Polls Accurate?

A poll worker at Montbello High School in Denver. Photo courtesy the Rocky Mountain News archives via the Denver Public LibraryA poll worker at Montbello High School in Denver. Photo courtesy the Rocky Mountain News archives via the Denver Public Library
In a long interview with Rocky Mountain PBS’s reporter Andrea Kramar, the mechanics and trustworthiness of polling was discussed. Concerning polling accuracy, I argued that pollsters are strongly incentivized to be accurate. Their reputations depend on their poll results aligning with the election results. Even candidate and party pollsters need to be accurate, as do liberal and conservative media outlets.

Does liberal or conservative media skew polls?
All these polls at some point have to run up against what happens on election day – our version of the Super Bowl. If you want to stay in the polling business, you better be in the ballpark or else have a good explanation as to what happened.

If you perform poorly?
You won’t get hired. Your newspaper will lose credibility. Newspapers frequently change pollsters when things don’t go well.

READ INTERVIEW:
Reality Check: An insider’s guide to how political polls work

Colorado’s Direct Democracy Produces Torrent of Proposals

CU Denver School of Public AffairsCU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On Friday, October 11, 2024, Colorado ballot issues will be examined by a panel of media and political experts hosted by CU Denver School of Public Affairs from 5:30 to 7:00 p.m. Pollster and Senior Fellow, Floyd Ciruli, will moderate this panel.

Direct democracy is appealing to some voters who believe there are problems legislators don’t address and a ballot initiative can be a solution. But many are concerned by the volume and complexity of the proposals, and 2024 is an example of the issue. Fourteen propositions crowd the ballot ranging from animal rights to guns and from abortion to criminal justice and education. Some, if passed, represent significant changes to public policy which is not necessarily evident in the ballot wording.

Crime & justice
• Change judicial procedures
• Restrict bail for murder
• Narrow parole for violent crime
• Fund law enforcement
• Tax firearms and ammunition

Animals
• Ban mountain lion, bobcat, lynx hunting
• Add veterinary associates

Elections
• Create all candidate open primary - ranked choice voting

School policy
• Add right to school choice

Marriage / abortion
• Repeal marriage definition
• Add right to abortion and funding

Miscellaneous
• Change initiative deadlines
• Change property tax for disabled veterans
• Increase sports betting revenues for water projects

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend panel here.

The Colorado Ballot: Seismic Decisions
October 11, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200, Denver, Colorado

Tuesday, October 1, 2024

Electoral Vote Is Calcified

2024 Electoral College ratings
Updated: Sept. 25, 2024Crystal Ball Electoral College rating Updated: Sept. 25, 2024

The electoral vote count of the leading vote forecaster has not changed in the last 30 days. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball published on August 20 showed that the distribution of electoral votes had shifted when Joe Biden was the nominee (Democrats losing 196 to 312) to a slight Kamala Harris advantage (Democrats winning 226 to 219) with 93 toss-up electoral votes in 7 states. Their latest map (see above) published on September 25 has the same electoral count and toss-up states. The Cook Political Report, another forecasting service, agrees.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball

In the last two presidential elections the Democrats have won the popular vote by substantial margins but with close electoral counts. Results were reversed with Donald Trump winning in 2016 by 77 electors and Biden in 2020 by 74. As of today it appears a close election with very little movement since early September.

RELATED
Reversal: Democrats Ahead in Electoral Vote 08/28/2024