The Buzz: July 2026

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Midterm Panic

Trump looks past Canada and Mexico for Gianni Infantino

FIFA President Gianni Infantino, U.S. President Donald Trump, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney during the awards ceremony after the FIFA World Cup 2026 Final match between Spain and Argentina at New York New Jersey Stadium on July 19, 2026, in East Rutherford, New Jersey. | Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

President Trump is in major panic over likely midterm loss of the House and from some risk in the Senate. That panic is in spite of a slight improvement in approval rating and the generic ballot during the last two months, although both remain in the danger zone for a midterm House loss that would shift control.

The Hill website has released its Decision Desk Headquarters report showing that there is a 61% chance the Democrats take the House and a 57% probability the Republicans hold the Senate.

DDHQ Report
	Dem.	Rep.
House	226	209
Senate	50	50

Trump continues to work to increase the Republican advantage with state level reapportionment, various federal initiatives to influence the voting process and use of public relations events (World Cup).

Key factors helping the Democrats:

Trump approval mostly at or below 40%
The generic ballot test about 4 has been 7 on the averages.
The unpopularity of the war in Iran and Trump performance on the economy.

Tuesday, July 21, 2026

The 2026 Primary Turnout About Average

A voter casts their ballot at a drop box in Denver on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, in this file photo. (AP Photo/Chet Strange, File)

The 35 percent turnout was predicted by this blog (The 2026 Democratic Primary Turnout) due to comparison with the similar highly-contested 2018 election. And indeed, while there were a few more voters in 2026, overall turnout percentage remained the same.

The late voter turnout has become common in contested elections when the candidates push and pull their votes to the polls. Campaigns with many volunteers and targeting young people especially tend to turn out late (i.e., mail arrives later and Monday and election day dropoffs ramp up). In Democrat primaries, that means the most liberal (2026 socialist) candidates tend to pick up votes as the counting includes later voters.

The general election turnout percentage tends to double from the primary. In 2018, the turnout of active voters in November was 75% of 2.5 million, and of active voters, 65% of 2.5 million of 3.9 registered million. Note: additional people registered between the primary and general election. It is likely the November 2026 turnout will double from the primary. Although there are few strongly contested partisan races expected, there will likely be well-funded ballot issue campaigns.

Monday, July 20, 2026

Midterm Elections: Tsunami or Minor Wave

President Donald Trump speaks in the East Room of the White House, Thursday, July 16, 2026, in Washington. (Saul Loeb/Pool via AP)

The average first midterm election loss for the President’s party since 1962 has been 22 House seats. The following chart shows some of the exceptional midterm swings.

Is President Trump heading toward a 40 to 60 seat tsunami, or a more restrained 20 to 30 seat shift with a change in control of the House? Could the Democrats fail to win a majority?

Monday, July 13, 2026

Bennet’s Luck Ran Out

U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet gives a concession speech to supporters of his campaign in the Democratic gubernatorial primary during his election night watch party at Schoolyard Beer Garden in Denver on Tuesday, June 30, 2026. Attorney General Phil Weiser defeated Bennet to become the Democratic nominee for governor. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)

Senator Michael Bennet was a surprise appointment by Governor Bill Ritter to the U.S. Senate in January 2009. His first election has been the only real contest in his Senate career. He won it in 2010 by less than 30,000 votes (against DA Ken Buck). Bennet had two subsequent easy races against weak Republican opponents in 2016 and 2022. He benefited from serving during Trump’s dominance of local party politics. Trump is a pariah and lost the 2016, 2020 and 2024 presidential elections in Colorado.

But Bennet’s luck ran out in the 2026 June primary for governor after his risky and mostly unexplained decision to compete for the about-to-be-vacant seat of termed out Governor Jared Polis. He began the quest in early 2025 as the frontrunner due to name identification and access to significant financing but quickly faced tough questions as to why he was challenging a popular Attorney General, Phil Weiser. With his low-key demeanor, questions were quickly raised as to what he had accomplished after seventeen years in Washington, and especially to oppose Donald Trump.

Bennet’s advantage in super PAC money, especially large gifts from high profile non-progressive Democrat Michael Bloomberg, helped alienate progressives and boost Weiser. Bennet, a stalwart member of the Washington and Democratic Party establishment, was in an election where a younger generation of Democratic and unaffiliated voters were entering the electorate and passionate about change and hostile to what they perceived as a status quo establishment.

The last time he lost this dramatically was his failed presidential race and withdrawal after earning less than 1 percent of the vote in New Hampshire in 2020. Bennet still has two years in his Senate term but this loss is a deep political wound. Due to his even temperament and thoughtful, moderate approach, he is more popular in the Washington policy community than Colorado. He has many options as former Colorado officeholders Gary Hart, Tim Wirth, Roy Romer and Hank Brown demonstrated, but it’s not likely to be in elective office.

Friday, July 10, 2026

Dow Up in Spite of Uncertainty

A view of commercial cargo vessels and crude oil tankers are anchored in the Gulf of Oman, off the coast of Muscat, Oman, on June 21, 2026. Photo: Shady Alassar, Anadolu Agency

The momentum for stocks, especially high tech, continues. The mid-year returns are at or near double digits with Dow and S&P up 9 percent and the NAZ ahead 13 points. The Dow, now above 52,000, is at its 18th record high for the year.

AI continues to drive the tech sector and uplift many others tertiary beneficiaries including small caps. Earnings growth has remained high. Consumers seem to be absorbing the inflation and the disruption of the Iran War appears to be dissipated through off-and-on negotiations. In spite of the world economic edginess, many analysts remain reasonably optimistic for the rest of the year.

But the market is likely to remain volatile. Interest rates, the AI surge, its durability and costs, and oil prices are all subject to unpredictable economic and geopolitical factors.

Thursday, July 9, 2026

We Will Not Wait

Melat Kiros joins Colorado Democratic leaders at a post-primary rally in Denver

Melat Kiros, center, joins Colorado Democratic leaders at a post-primary rally in Denver on Thursday. Photo: Alayna Alvarez/Axios

Melat Kiros joined her fellow Democrats in a unity rally immediately after the votes were counted. Her slogan, “We will not wait,” was still echoing through the state’s and the nation’s political establishment.

Denver Democrats often lead the country in breaking new political ground.

Pat Schroeder	1972	"She wins we win"
Federico Pena	1983	"Imagine a great city"
Melat Kiros	2026	"We will not wait"

Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Hickenlooper Narrowly Wins Last Term in Unruly Year

U.S. Sen. John Hickenlooper, left, speaks to the crowd as former U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar watches on at Hickenlooper's primary election night watch party in Denver's Uptown neighborhood on June 30, 2026. (John Ingold, The Colorado Sun)

John Hickenlooper’s reelection this year appeared secure against an underfunded State Senator, but the anti-establishment wave affecting younger Democratic voters did raise anxiety. In fact, as the final count came in he only won by 6 points, hardly a landslide reelection.

Fortunately, Hickenlooper announced this is his last term. His 23-year political career has had considerable good timing and an unconventional start. He has become a brand and is well served by an unusual name and a slightly goofy persona.

He entered politics as a Denver barman advocating for lower downtown, parlayed it into a surprising but successful campaign for Denver Mayor in 2003. Good fortune came again when Governor Bill Ritter decided to stop after one term, making Hickenlooper the top choice in 2010, a chaotic year for the Republican Party. He won with 51 percent of the vote. Finally, the U.S. Senate became a possibility when Republican Cory Gardner defeated Senator Mark Udall in his 2014 reelection effort but could not withstand the anti-Trump wave in Colorado in his first reelection and lost to Hickenlooper.

How will Hickenlooper adapt to the new political environment? The 2028 presidential election, which will likely bring a Senate change in Colorado, should keep the state’s elections, at least primaries, in flux.

Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Five Observations from the Colorado Primary

Melat Kiros, a Democratic socialist running to unseat U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette, speaks from the steps of the Colorado State Capitol Sunday, June 14. (Adrian O’Farrill, Rocky Mountain PBS via the Colorado Capitol News Alliance)

Colorado 2026 primary hit local politics like a tsunami and kicked the door open for the national conversation on the direction of the Democratic Party. Five observations:

Anti-Trump: Opposing President Trump was the top attitude Democrats wanted to see in their candidates. Weiser’s 66 lawsuits against Trump were worth millions from Michael Bloomberg.
Anti-Establishment, Anti-DC: Michael Bennet not only is a long time member of the Washington, DC Democratic establishment. His strategy of a campaign with endorsements from leading politicians and funded by billionaires and corporate donors was exactly the wrong tone and vibe for this electorate.
Ideology: First identified in New York, DSA members have been working steadily to impact the Democratic Party and had success. The Democratic Party’s lack of solutions for the affordability crisis, divisions on Israel, and apparent inability to inhibit Trump has become a major opportunity for far left and socialist appeals.
Generation: The Millennial generation is now a major force in the electorate. They are 30 to 49 years old and with Gen Z, a younger cohort, are starting to dominate politics. Younger, more diverse, more liberal and digital, they want to shake up the system. Younger candidates with passion and outside-the-frame views are favored.
Social Media: While television ads are still prolific in big money races and mailers locally, social media and digital ads are fueling the upsets and insurgencies in 2026.

Monday, July 6, 2026

Polling and the New York Primary Warned the Establishment – Change is Coming

Phil Weiser at an election night party after winning the Democratic primary. Photo: Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images

Michael Bennet’s two-to-one lead in 2025 and early 2026 dissipated as the anti-establishment-anti-DC trends started to engage Democrats in general, especially Millennials and Gen Z. Fighting president Trump and not being part of the system was a winner.

A May and June poll put Phil Weiser ahead. Notice 15 points moved from undecided to Weiser the last month. The New York primary result of June 23 signaled change was coming. All the final trends worked for Weiser.

Thursday, July 2, 2026

Denver Makes Primary History and Leads the Progressive Pack

D1 candidate Melat Kiros' supporters cheer as a second round of election results dropped in her favor, widening her lead over incumbent Diana DeGette. June 30, 2026.
Photo: McKenzie Lange/CPR News

Denver Democratic primary voters changed the direction of Colorado politics. Across the board they provided progressive muscle to local and statewide candidates. Denver’s 155,000 votes were 18% of the statewide vote.

While John Hickenlooper won statewide (53%-47%), he lost the city he was mayor of to Julie Gonzales by 7 points, 54% to 47%.
Michael Bennet, former Denver chief of staff and school superintendent, became the face of the corporate DC establishment and lost Denver to Phil Weiser 34% to 66% on his way to losing the election statewide by 13 points.
Diane DeGette in her 7th Congressional election, did better than Bennet at 40% but lost to Melat Kiros, a 29-year-old socialist, by 13 points.
Denver’s Progressive voters gave Amanda Gonzales, the socialist-leaning (former DSA member) running for Secretary of State, a 67% margin, helping her to a 28 point win.

Millennials/Gen Z Getting into Politics

Nikita Valdez jumps while cheering after the first report of the election results show Democratic congressional candidate Melat Kiros in the lead during a primary election night watch party at The Broadway, Tuesday, June 30, 2026, in Denver. (AP Photo/Rebecca Slezak)

Millennials, the demographic cohort starting in 1981 and now between 30 and 45 years old, are overtaking the dominant Baby Boom that is entering their 70’s and 80’s. When combined with younger Generation Z (15-29), they together have 40 percent of the population, more than a third of the vote known for their digital fluency and social activism.

The Baby Boomers came to political prominence in Colorado in the late 1970’s and 1980’s. Gary Hart, Tim Wirth, Sam Brown, and Pat Schroeder, (anti-war, was elected at 32 years old in 1972) were all strongly supported by Baby Boom voters. In Denver, Federico Pena, the perceived Mamdani of the era, became mayor in 1983, beating the establishment candidates.

Polling in the 2026 Democratic primary reflected the new generation's power and preferences. They are more diverse than the over-45 generations, more liberal, more anti-establishment and they are voting for change. They preferred Phil Weiser and not Diane DeGette. They helped new candidates win legislative primaries and the competitive 8th congressional district insurgent candidate.