Denver Region Drives State Vote

As usual, the seven-county Denver metro region provided 56 percent of the statewide vote. The following table shows the total 2026 primary vote for the seven metro counties in rank order of size and the Democratic vote for Senate.

The 590,000 metro voters in the Democratic U.S. Senate race was 66% of the statewide total. John Hickenlooper’s winning it secured his narrow victory. Michael Bennet’s losing it by 59% doomed him. Denver’s vote alone produced a quarter of the region’s Democrats and 18% of the statewide Democratic vote. Bennet lost Denver two to one.

Statewide statistics show unaffiliated voters an extremely important part of the Democratic vote. Sixty-four percent of unaffiliated voters took a Democratic ballot. Unaffiliated voters (388,000) were 43% of the total Democratic vote. They were 41% of the statewide vote but their turnout was somewhat less than partisans since they represent 52% of voter registration overall.

RELATED:
The 2026 Primary Turnout About Average July 21, 2026

Midterm Elections: Current Predictions

United States Capitol National Park Service photo by Mike Litterst

Midterm projections of the likely House and Senate seat swings in the 2026 November election are being published regularly. In the Senate, the Republicans continue to hold an advantage with most projections at best having a 50-50 Senate (3 seat swing to Democrats) with the VP having the tie vote and Republicans the right to control committees and the agenda. However, given President Trump’s weak allegiance from 2 or more Senators, it would be a difficult body to manage in 2027.

The House appears more likely to swing Democratic if the projections are correct. Democrats only need three seats for control and most projections are well beyond that number. If vacancies were filled, the current House would be 216 Dem. to 218 Rep.

The average first midterm election loss for the President’s party since LBJ in 1962 has been 22 House seats. The following chart shows some of the exceptional midterm swings. The 2026 midterm swing looks more modest due to the political system’s rigidity, polarization, negative partisanship, and state level redistricting.

RELATED:
Midterm Panic July 22, 2026
Midterm Elections: Tsunami or Minor Wave July 20, 2026

Colorado Party Disrupters

Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., left, and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., right, scream "Build the Wall" as President Joe Biden delivers his first State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress at the Capitol, Tuesday, March 1, 2022, in Washington. (Evelyn Hockstein/Pool via AP)

Melat Kiros, a Democratic socialist running to unseat U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette, speaks from the steps of the Colorado State Capitol Sunday, June 14. (Adrian O’Farrill, Rocky Mountain PBS via the Colorado Capitol News Alliance)

Both of Colorado’s political parties have seen long-time incumbents lose primaries to outside the parties’ disrupters. In 2020, Lauren Boebert defeated 5-term Republican Congressman Scott Tipton. Closely associated with President Donald Trump, she was highly controversial and decided to switch to a safer district in 2024. She is currently the state’s most high-profile Republican but she is in some trouble with the MAGA base.

This year, 15-term Congresswoman Diane DeGette lost the Democratic nomination to non-politician and socialist Melat Kiros. She has received national attention and her socialist label and aggressive domestic and Middle East agendas will keep her in news. Kiros is already one of Colorado’s highest profile Democrats.

Could Boebert be Beaten?

LEFT: U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert. (Photo by Shaun Stanley/Special to The Denver Post) | RIGHT: Eileen Laubacher, the Democratic nominee in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District in the 2026 election. (Campaign handout)

Colorado’s High Plains 4th Congressional District is the Republican Party’s safest seat. President Trump, while losing Colorado in all three of his elections, carried the 4th CD, including most recently by 58 percent to 40 percent for Kamala Harris (l54% Harris to 43% Trump).

Denver Post’s John Aguilar wrote a background on the 2026 race between Lauren Boebert and the new Democratic nominee Eileen Laubacher. His question was, “Is there a competitive contest?” The answer from CSU Professor Kyle Saunders and myself was possible but very unlikely, primarily because of the partisan advantage Republicans have in both registration and voting behavior.

Political analyst Floyd Ciruli also cautioned that cash alone may not be able to overcome the reality of the district’s political makeup. Republicans have 100,000-plus more registered voters than Democrats. “I’m not sure that money is the actual issue in this district,” Ciruli said.

Aguilar’s analysis pointed out:

• 2026 is likely to be a good Democratic year for winning House seats.
• Laubacher has $10.3 million compared to Boebert’s $1.1 million.
• Boebert has antagonized President Trump (Epstein investigation and support for Republican dissident Tom Massie). Is the base angry enough to send a Democrat to DC?
• Boebert did not secure an appropriation for a water pipeline in the District and could have even less clout in the next House.
• In spite of some advantages, Laubacher will need a very strong campaign message and ground game targeted at independents, moderates and people ready for a change. And a lot of luck.

Laubacher can pound themes on the campaign trail that are particularly salient to the largely agricultural district, Ciruli said, like high fuel and fertilizer prices in the midst of the U.S. war with Iran and added costs for farmers due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs. “You have to convince the farmer in Sterling or in Fort Morgan that they’re not getting enough representation and they need to move to a Democrat,” he said.

RELATED:
Boebert’s Last Term? April 6, 2023

The Bennet Collapse

U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet hugs his supporters after conceeding to Phil Weiser in the Democratic gubernatorial primaries on Tuesday. (Stephen Swofford/The Denver Gazette)

The narrative of Democratic politics since the New York mayoral election of November 2025 has been that of young idealistic voters challenging political establishments, especially urban, and winning. Seattle, Washington, D.C. and L.A. have seen several successful socialism espousing candidates. It just hit the Colorado June 30 primary, and incumbents and establishment politicians are out of office.

Thirty-year incumbent, Congresswoman Diane DeGette, was the most obvious casualty but Senator Michael Bennet was also a victim of the framework now established for Democratic primaries. As a long-time establishment D.C. politician, Bennet and his team planned to overwhelm his opponent, Attorney General Phil Weiser, with name identification, endorsements, and money. All normally critical but now seen as signs of the establishment and status quo.

Polling indicated he was a two-to-one leader for most of the last year and into early 2026. But when the polls showed the race tightening, he and his Super PAC ramped up negative ads and he loaned his campaign $1 million The public polling available and media reports described a close race the last two months. His position collapsed the final two weeks as undecided voters moved to Weiser. Most observers believed Denver was beyond his winning in early June. He lost in Denver two to one (66% to 34%), and the Denver region by 59% on his way to losing statewide by 14 points.

RELATED:
Bennet’s Luck Ran Out July 13, 2026
Polling and the New York Primary Warned the Establishment – Change is Coming July 6, 2026

Midterm Panic

FIFA President Gianni Infantino, U.S. President Donald Trump, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney during the awards ceremony after the FIFA World Cup 2026 Final match between Spain and Argentina at New York New Jersey Stadium on July 19, 2026, in East Rutherford, New Jersey. | Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

President Trump is in major panic over likely midterm loss of the House and from some risk in the Senate. That panic is in spite of a slight improvement in approval rating and the generic ballot during the last two months, although both remain in the danger zone for a midterm House loss that would shift control.

The Hill website has released its Decision Desk Headquarters report showing that there is a 61% chance the Democrats take the House and a 57% probability the Republicans hold the Senate.

DDHQ Report
	Dem.	Rep.
House	226	209
Senate	50	50

Trump continues to work to increase the Republican advantage with state level reapportionment, various federal initiatives to influence the voting process and use of public relations events (World Cup).

Key factors helping the Democrats:

1. Trump approval mostly at or below 40%
2. The generic ballot test about 4 has been 7 on the averages.
3. The unpopularity of the war in Iran and Trump performance on the economy.

RELATED:
National Dashboard: Trump Doesn’t Have the Cards May 26, 2026
National Dashboard: Iran Takes Trump Down Apr 6, 2026
National Dashboard: Trump in Retreat Feb 23, 2026
Trilogy on Trump’s Declining Approval Dec 15, 2025
Trump Approval Collapses and November 4 Turns Blue Nov 20, 2025

The 2026 Primary Turnout About Average

A voter casts their ballot at a drop box in Denver on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, in this file photo. (AP Photo/Chet Strange, File)

The 35 percent turnout was predicted by this blog (The 2026 Democratic Primary Turnout) due to comparison with the similar highly-contested 2018 election. And indeed, while there were a few more voters in 2026, overall turnout percentage remained the same.

The late voter turnout has become common in contested elections when the candidates push and pull their votes to the polls. Campaigns with many volunteers and targeting young people especially tend to turn out late (i.e., mail arrives later and Monday and election day dropoffs ramp up). In Democrat primaries, that means the most liberal (2026 socialist) candidates tend to pick up votes as the counting includes later voters.

The general election turnout percentage tends to double from the primary. In 2018, the turnout of active voters in November was 75% of 2.5 million, and of active voters, 65% of 2.5 million of 3.9 registered million. Note: additional people registered between the primary and general election. It is likely the November 2026 turnout will double from the primary. Although there are few strongly contested partisan races expected, there will likely be well-funded ballot issue campaigns.

Midterm Elections: Tsunami or Minor Wave

President Donald Trump speaks in the East Room of the White House, Thursday, July 16, 2026, in Washington. (Saul Loeb/Pool via AP)

The average first midterm election loss for the President’s party since 1962 has been 22 House seats. The following chart shows some of the exceptional midterm swings.

Is President Trump heading toward a 40 to 60 seat tsunami, or a more restrained 20 to 30 seat shift with a change in control of the House? Could the Democrats fail to win a majority?

Bennet’s Luck Ran Out

U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet gives a concession speech to supporters of his campaign in the Democratic gubernatorial primary during his election night watch party at Schoolyard Beer Garden in Denver on Tuesday, June 30, 2026. Attorney General Phil Weiser defeated Bennet to become the Democratic nominee for governor. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)

Senator Michael Bennet was a surprise appointment by Governor Bill Ritter to the U.S. Senate in January 2009. His first election has been the only real contest in his Senate career. He won it in 2010 by less than 30,000 votes (against DA Ken Buck). Bennet had two subsequent easy races against weak Republican opponents in 2016 and 2022. He benefited from serving during Trump’s dominance of local party politics. Trump is a pariah and lost the 2016, 2020 and 2024 presidential elections in Colorado.

But Bennet’s luck ran out in the 2026 June primary for governor after his risky and mostly unexplained decision to compete for the about-to-be-vacant seat of termed out Governor Jared Polis. He began the quest in early 2025 as the frontrunner due to name identification and access to significant financing but quickly faced tough questions as to why he was challenging a popular Attorney General, Phil Weiser. With his low-key demeanor, questions were quickly raised as to what he had accomplished after seventeen years in Washington, and especially to oppose Donald Trump.

Bennet’s advantage in super PAC money, especially large gifts from high profile non-progressive Democrat Michael Bloomberg, helped alienate progressives and boost Weiser. Bennet, a stalwart member of the Washington and Democratic Party establishment, was in an election where a younger generation of Democratic and unaffiliated voters were entering the electorate and passionate about change and hostile to what they perceived as a status quo establishment.

The last time he lost this dramatically was his failed presidential race and withdrawal after earning less than 1 percent of the vote in New Hampshire in 2020. Bennet still has two years in his Senate term but this loss is a deep political wound. Due to his even temperament and thoughtful, moderate approach, he is more popular in the Washington policy community than Colorado. He has many options as former Colorado officeholders Gary Hart, Tim Wirth, Roy Romer and Hank Brown demonstrated, but it’s not likely to be in elective office.

RELATED:
Hickenlooper Narrowly Wins Last Term in Unruly Year July 8, 2026
Polling and the New York Primary Warned the Establishment – Change is Coming July 6, 2026

Dow Up in Spite of Uncertainty

A view of commercial cargo vessels and crude oil tankers are anchored in the Gulf of Oman, off the coast of Muscat, Oman, on June 21, 2026. Photo: Shady Alassar, Anadolu Agency

The momentum for stocks, especially high tech, continues. The mid-year returns are at or near double digits with Dow and S&P up 9 percent and the NAZ ahead 13 points. The Dow, now above 52,000, is at its 18th record high for the year.

AI continues to drive the tech sector and uplift many others tertiary beneficiaries including small caps. Earnings growth has remained high. Consumers seem to be absorbing the inflation and the disruption of the Iran War appears to be dissipated through off-and-on negotiations. In spite of the world economic edginess, many analysts remain reasonably optimistic for the rest of the year.

But the market is likely to remain volatile. Interest rates, the AI surge, its durability and costs, and oil prices are all subject to unpredictable economic and geopolitical factors.

RELATED:
Dow Bounces Around 50,000 Jun 3, 2026
Market Ends Up Despite the Drama and Chaos Jan 7, 2026
Market Ends Up After Volatile Quarter Jul 3, 2025
Trump’s Agenda Could be Volatile for Market Dec 16, 2024

We Will Not Wait

Melat Kiros, center, joins Colorado Democratic leaders at a post-primary rally in Denver on Thursday. Photo: Alayna Alvarez/Axios

Melat Kiros joined her fellow Democrats in a unity rally immediately after the votes were counted. Her slogan, “We will not wait,” was still echoing through the state’s and the nation’s political establishment.

Denver Democrats often lead the country in breaking new political ground.

Pat Schroeder	1972	"She wins we win"
Federico Pena	1983	"Imagine a great city"
Melat Kiros	2026	"We will not wait"

RELATED:
Denver Makes Primary History and Leads the Progressive Pack Jul 2, 2026

Hickenlooper Narrowly Wins Last Term in Unruly Year

U.S. Sen. John Hickenlooper, left, speaks to the crowd as former U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar watches on at Hickenlooper's primary election night watch party in Denver's Uptown neighborhood on June 30, 2026. (John Ingold, The Colorado Sun)

John Hickenlooper’s reelection this year appeared secure against an underfunded State Senator, but the anti-establishment wave affecting younger Democratic voters did raise anxiety. In fact, as the final count came in he only won by 6 points, hardly a landslide reelection.

Fortunately, Hickenlooper announced this is his last term. His 23-year political career has had considerable good timing and an unconventional start. He has become a brand and is well served by an unusual name and a slightly goofy persona.

He entered politics as a Denver barman advocating for lower downtown, parlayed it into a surprising but successful campaign for Denver Mayor in 2003. Good fortune came again when Governor Bill Ritter decided to stop after one term, making Hickenlooper the top choice in 2010, a chaotic year for the Republican Party. He won with 51 percent of the vote. Finally, the U.S. Senate became a possibility when Republican Cory Gardner defeated Senator Mark Udall in his 2014 reelection effort but could not withstand the anti-Trump wave in Colorado in his first reelection and lost to Hickenlooper.

How will Hickenlooper adapt to the new political environment? The 2028 presidential election, which will likely bring a Senate change in Colorado, should keep the state’s elections, at least primaries, in flux.

Five Observations from the Colorado Primary

Melat Kiros, a Democratic socialist running to unseat U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette, speaks from the steps of the Colorado State Capitol Sunday, June 14. (Adrian O’Farrill, Rocky Mountain PBS via the Colorado Capitol News Alliance)

Colorado 2026 primary hit local politics like a tsunami and kicked the door open for the national conversation on the direction of the Democratic Party. Five observations:

1. Anti-Trump: Opposing President Trump was the top attitude Democrats wanted to see in their candidates. Weiser’s 66 lawsuits against Trump were worth millions from Michael Bloomberg.
   
   
2. Anti-Establishment, Anti-DC: Michael Bennet not only is a long time member of the Washington, DC Democratic establishment. His strategy of a campaign with endorsements from leading politicians and funded by billionaires and corporate donors was exactly the wrong tone and vibe for this electorate.
   
   
3. Ideology: First identified in New York, DSA members have been working steadily to impact the Democratic Party and had success. The Democratic Party’s lack of solutions for the affordability crisis, divisions on Israel, and apparent inability to inhibit Trump has become a major opportunity for far left and socialist appeals.
   
   
4. Generation: The Millennial generation is now a major force in the electorate. They are 30 to 49 years old and with Gen Z, a younger cohort, are starting to dominate politics. Younger, more diverse, more liberal and digital, they want to shake up the system. Younger candidates with passion and outside-the-frame views are favored.
   
   
5. Social Media: While television ads are still prolific in big money races and mailers locally, social media and digital ads are fueling the upsets and insurgencies in 2026.
   
   

RELATED:
Polling and the New York Primary Warned the Establishment – Change is Coming Jul 6, 2026
Denver Makes Primary History and Leads the Progressive Pack Jul 2, 2026
Millennials/Gen Z Getting into Politics Jul 2, 2026
Colorado’s Embattled Democratic Establishment Jun 25, 2026

Polling and the New York Primary Warned the Establishment – Change is Coming

Phil Weiser at an election night party after winning the Democratic primary. Photo: Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images

Michael Bennet’s two-to-one lead in 2025 and early 2026 dissipated as the anti-establishment-anti-DC trends started to engage Democrats in general, especially Millennials and Gen Z. Fighting president Trump and not being part of the system was a winner.

A May and June poll put Phil Weiser ahead. Notice 15 points moved from undecided to Weiser the last month. The New York primary result of June 23 signaled change was coming. All the final trends worked for Weiser.

Denver Makes Primary History and Leads the Progressive Pack

D1 candidate Melat Kiros' supporters cheer as a second round of election results dropped in her favor, widening her lead over incumbent Diana DeGette. June 30, 2026.
Photo: McKenzie Lange/CPR News

Denver Democratic primary voters changed the direction of Colorado politics. Across the board they provided progressive muscle to local and statewide candidates. Denver’s 155,000 votes were 18% of the statewide vote.

• While John Hickenlooper won statewide (53%-47%), he lost the city he was mayor of to Julie Gonzales by 7 points, 54% to 47%.
• Michael Bennet, former Denver chief of staff and school superintendent, became the face of the corporate DC establishment and lost Denver to Phil Weiser 34% to 66% on his way to losing the election statewide by 13 points.
• Diane DeGette in her 7th Congressional election, did better than Bennet at 40% but lost to Melat Kiros, a 29-year-old socialist, by 13 points.
• Denver’s Progressive voters gave Amanda Gonzales, the socialist-leaning (former DSA member) running for Secretary of State, a 67% margin, helping her to a 28 point win.

Millennials/Gen Z Getting into Politics

Nikita Valdez jumps while cheering after the first report of the election results show Democratic congressional candidate Melat Kiros in the lead during a primary election night watch party at The Broadway, Tuesday, June 30, 2026, in Denver. (AP Photo/Rebecca Slezak)

Millennials, the demographic cohort starting in 1981 and now between 30 and 45 years old, are overtaking the dominant Baby Boom that is entering their 70’s and 80’s. When combined with younger Generation Z (15-29), they together have 40 percent of the population, more than a third of the vote known for their digital fluency and social activism.

The Baby Boomers came to political prominence in Colorado in the late 1970’s and 1980’s. Gary Hart, Tim Wirth, Sam Brown, and Pat Schroeder, (anti-war, was elected at 32 years old in 1972) were all strongly supported by Baby Boom voters. In Denver, Federico Pena, the perceived Mamdani of the era, became mayor in 1983, beating the establishment candidates.

Polling in the 2026 Democratic primary reflected the new generation's power and preferences. They are more diverse than the over-45 generations, more liberal, more anti-establishment and they are voting for change. They preferred Phil Weiser and not Diane DeGette. They helped new candidates win legislative primaries and the competitive 8th congressional district insurgent candidate.

The 2026 Democratic Primary Turnout

A voter casts their ballot at a drop box in Denver on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, in this file photo. (AP Photo/Chet Strange, File)

Although Colorado paper ballot returns have been slow, competitive races with significant spending tend to produce higher rates of turnout. Also, Donald Trump has increased turnout of Colorado Democrats anxious to send a message. For example, 35 percent of active voters turned out in the very competitive 2018 primary election but a lower 32 percent in 2022, with no statewide officeholders contested.

Will voter turnout above 35 percent help the embattled establishment or the progressive challengers?

READ ARTICLE:
Colorado’s primary turnout tops 10% as election officials warn it’s too late to mail ballots June 24, 2026

Colorado Election Gets Attention

Mr. Weiser, second from left, spoke with voters at Bluebird Café in Glenwood Springs, Colo. Photo: Cheney Orr for The New York Times

After years of mostly one party government and no primaries, Colorado is getting media attention as the nation’s anti-establishment, left-leading movement slams into the state’s Democratic primaries.

The New York Times weekend story on the governor’s race poses Michael Bennet as the big money establishment candidates whose campaign has faded from a 30 point advantage to a toss-up. Opponent Phil Weiser has positioned himself as a fighter in a year the party is hungry for combat with the Trump Administration and is highly anti-establishment.

NY TIMES ARTICLE:
Colorado’s Primary for Governor Pivots to Trump and Who Will Fight Him June 28, 2026

Colorado’s Embattled Democratic Establishment

U.S. Senator Michael Bennet and Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser participate in a forum for the Democratic candidates running for governor, Saturday, June 13, 2026, at Colorado State University's Lory Student Center in Fort Collins. (Photo: Tanya Fabian, Special to The Colorado Sun)

Colorado’s Democratic establishment officeholders are waging expensive defensive battles against a rising left wing.

The state’s senior U.S. Senator, Michael Bennet, who was seen as the strong favorite to win the gubernatorial primary, is spending millions in negative advertising to win what now appears a competitive race. Attorney General Phil Weiser benefiting from not being a long-time Washington officeholder, is riding the anti-establishment forces. Most observers believe Bennet will lose Denver, the party’s heartland, although they still believe he has an advantage.

Fifteen-term Congresswoman Diane DeGette who nearly lost the party nomination in earlier assemblies is in a difficult reelection with two opponents, one a young Black (Ethiopian) with no political experience but a “time for a change” progressive platform. It would be a major upset if she would lose.

Even John Hickenlooper, who has been a major Colorado political figure since becoming Denver’s mayor in 2003, is running extra hard against an underfunded and little-known opponent, Julie Gonzales. He’s primarily working to keep out of debates to avoid giving her statewide exposure. He will likely win, but the message is the same, the party establishment is on defense.

Should the SCFD Tax be Increased? No!

One of the most popular attributes of the Denver metro area’s Scientific and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD) has been its frugality. In 1988, realizing it was in competition with municipal and county sales taxes, it set a low sales tax rate of one-tenth of a cent. Colorado also has a history of resistance to tax increases. The TABOR limits were being discussed and passed in 1992.

Over the last three decades, due to the economic and population growth in the 7-county region, the tax revenue for cultural institutions increased from $14 million annually to $85 million today.

During reauthorizations, many cultural organizations argued that since there are more organizations they need more money. The campaign group that supports SCFD regularly polls on the tax issue and has found voter resistance to increasing the SCFD tax rate. In December 2025, voters were asked whether not having a tax increase made them more likely to support the SCFD. Sixty-five percent said yes. It also asked whether there were higher priorities for the tax dollars in spite of being in favor of funding arts and culture. Nearly half of voters said there were other priorities.

Question: Thinking about a few other aspects of the Scientific and Cultural Facilities (SCFD) tax extension proposal.

For each one of the following, please indicate if that makes you much more likely to support it, somewhat more likely to support it, or makes no difference in your view one way or the other.

This will not increase taxes.

Question: For each of the following statements please indicate if you agree or disagree:

Arts, museums and theaters are nice to have, but there are higher priorities for our tax dollars to fund right now.

Bennet in Close Race?

U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet, left, and Attorney General Phil Weiser at a gubernatorial debate. (RJ Sangosti / Denver Post via Getty Images)

If the Morning Consult headline is correct, “Michael Bennet may not be the frontrunner for Colorado governor anymore,” it explains the $1 million loan Bennet made to his campaign and Bloomberg’s infusion of cash. The torrent of negative ads has many Democrats unhappy with the tone of the race. Do they put off the unaffected voter? Do they seem desperate? Bennet’s advantage is name identification and massive amounts of money for messaging, especially in the non-metro area. But still, the race is finally getting some drama.

READ:
Morning Digest: Michael Bennet may not be the frontrunner for Colorado governor anymore The Downballot, Jun 16, 2026

Becerra and Hilton Go to the Show - Steyer $200 Million for Third

From left, gubernatorial candidates Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton during The Western Growers California Gubernatorial Candidate Forum at Fresno State in Fresno on April 1, 2026. Photos by Larry Valenzuela, CalMatters

The California governor’s, race due to its top two winner configuration (jungle primary), began with an array of not imposing Democratic candidates and opening polls showing Republicans could take the top two spots. My blog “Republicans Dominate Jungle Primary for Governor” described the anomaly.

But the second half of the California race for governor began April 11 when Democratic favorite, Eric Swalwell, dropped out due to allegations of sexual assault. In less than two weeks, Xavier Becerra moved up 10 points to 15 by April 18 and swiftly became the Democratic frontrunner.

At least a part of Becerra’s ascendence were the flaws in the other Democratic voters’ choices:

• Katie Porter. Although she started the race tied with Swalwell, she had lost credibility after her Senate run in 2024. Many party leaders didn’t trust or like her. She never regained traction after the media blowup incident. It validated a long-standing criticism of a harsh temperament.
• Tom Steyer was never fully embraced by the left and it was not in a good moment for Silicon Valley billionaires. With $200 million spent he got close, but at some point the frequency of the message delivery damaged the messenger.
• Matt Mahan was late to the race, lacked charisma and a clear lane. Antonio Villaraigosa’s losing campaigns weighed on his harsh message of lower expectations.

Becerra, with a center left pragmatic demeanor, was a favorable contrast to the hyperbolic politics of the last few years. He seems calm, low key, and thoughtful.

RELATED:
Becerra New Democratic Frontrunner May 19, 2026
Swalwell Out; Becerra vs Steyer May 4, 2026
Republicans Dominate Jungle Primary for Governor Apr 2, 2026

California Pollsters Track the Governor’s Race

(L-R) Democrat Matt Mahan, Democrat Xavier Becerra, Republican Chad Bianco, Republican Steve Hilton, Democrat Tom Steyer and Democrat Katie Porter during a gubernatorial debate at KRON Studios in San Francisco on Wednesday, April 22, 2026.
Pool/Jason Henry/Bloomberg/Getty Images via SFGATE

More than 20 pollsters released polls in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary (Wikipedia) including the long serving mainstays Berkeley IGS and PPIC. The polls did reasonably well as reflected in the FiftyPlusOne and the other averages identifying Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton as the frontrunners and Tom Steyer a close third.

The polls showed the wild movement of the race from Republican-domination earlier in the year to the Eric Swalwell surge then collapse on April 12 and finally the rapid and steady rise of Xavier Becerra. They also showed Katie Porter and Chad Bianco stalled in secondary positions in their respective parties.

Of course, polls affect elections. Democrats were looking for the most viable candidate to support. Becerra was the beneficiary.

RELATED:
Republicans Dominate Jungle Primary for Governor Apr 2, 2026
Swalwell Out: Becerra vs Steyer May 4, 2026

Is Karen Bass in Trouble? Yes. Part Two

Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman, left, and Mayor Karen Bass.
Photos: Jason Armond and Ronaldo Bolanos / Los Angeles Times

As I asked in an April 8 blog, Karen Bass was in such serious trouble she was unable to secure her reelection in the primary. In fact, Bass is so vulnerable her opponent, progressive/socialist Nathya Raman, begins the race ahead in the first poll. Raman with Spencer Pratt, the conservative populist media influencer, mobilized the 65% of LA voters unhappy with the city’s direction and the mayor’s performance.

Raman, argued, “For too long, City Hall has prioritized giving political advantage to powerful interests that fund elections. Meanwhile, working people pay the price in higher rents, depleted services, and a city that has stopped working for them.”

After a close race for second, late voters pushed Raman ahead of Pratt. Wisely, she attacked Pratt, a Trump-endorsed candidate which cost him votes and lifted her as the arch anti-Trump Democrat.

The general election campaign is likely to be very negative but with some interesting policy options. Bass, as the representative of a disliked establishment, will be in a very difficult five-month reelection but will Raman hit a socialist ceiling?

RELATED:
Progressives Upset Old Guard Democrats Apr 13, 2026
Is Karen Bass in Trouble? Yes. Apr 8, 2026

Is DeGette in Trouble?

From left: U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette, attorney Melat Kiros and University of Colorado Regent Wanda James.

Diane DeGette was surprised by the grassroots strength of Democrats who wanted change and supported her novice opponent Melat Keros. Keros won the top spot in Denver county and District assemblies with DeGette barely making the low threshold of 30%. DeGette, a 30-year incumbent Congresswoman about to be a House subcommittee chair if Democrats take control, is facing the same challenge from a younger, left constituency that propelled big city mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani in New York and now Los Angeles Nithya Raman.

In a few recent primaries, DeGette has won overwhelmingly. Another opponent, Wanda James, petitioned on the ballot. Could she lose 30-40% or more of the vote to the two challengers?

RELATED:
Progressives Upset Old Guard Democrats Apr 13, 2026

Keep the SCFD. It’s a National Model

A History of Success in Supporting Popular Cultural Institutions

The Denver metro region’s Scientific and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD) is a unique and nationally envied model for cultural funding in the United States. Since its founding in 1988, it has provided steady funding to more than 200 cultural organizations and programs annually in the seven-county Denver metro area. It has maintained voter support in three elections to renew the tax. In this century the SCFD has received more than 60 percent support in two elections and was approved by a majority of voters in all seven counties in the metropolitan region.

Polling shows that the popularity of its highest profile cultural organizations make up the major contribution to the voter approval. The next most important attribute is the 35-year operational success of the SCFD program. The administration is frugal with limits on its expenditures and has stayed out of politics and controversy. As a government agency it has an exceptionally low negative rating and a positive reputation. Also, a key element for public support is the regional and comprehensive nature of the original funding design. Its three tiers guarantee funding for cultural programs from the local and county level to the region’s largest, most used and valued institutions, and reserves funds for more than 30 mid-sized organizations.

A polling question asked of 600 Denver metro voters in December of 2025 shows the support for the SCFD when it was linked to major cultural facilities throughout the seven Denver counties.

Question:
In an upcoming election, voters in the Denver metro area will vote on whether or not to extend the one-tenth of one-cent sales tax that funds the Scientific and Cultural Facilities District. It is not a tax increase. It helps fund the Zoo, the Botanic Garden, Butterfly Pavillion, museums, performing arts, nature centers and cultural programs and organizations throughout Arapahoe, Adams, Denver, Boulder, Broomfield, Douglas and Jefferson counties.

If you had to vote today, would you definitely support continuing the Scientific and Cultural Facilities District sales tax, probably support it, probably oppose it or definitely oppose continuing the district sales tax?

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Dow Bounces Around 50,000

U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. President Donald Trump, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick attend a cabinet meeting in the Cabinet Room at the White House, in Washington, D.C., U.S., on May 27, 2026. Evan Vucci/Reuters

Our end-of-the-year recap reported: Despite the drama and chaos, the DOW ended the year up 13 points. The third year of double-digit returns (up 12.9 points in 2024 and 13.7 in 2023). The S&P grew 16 points and the NASDAQ composite up 20, mostly driven by the AI investment boom.

We predicted churn. And indeed the war in Iran, accompanied by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, has featured the DOW bouncing more than 9 times around 50,000. It hit 10,000 at the start of the century (1999), then 30,000 in 2020 as the President Donald Trump first term was ending and President Joe Biden about to start. After a volatile period in the early 2020’s, it crossed to 40,000 in March 2024 as Biden began his fraught final campaign. After a brief 21 months, the DOW gained 10,000 points and crossed 50,000 on February 8, 2026.

As long as corporate earnings hold and interest rates and inflation data don’t accelerate, AI investment may continue to drive it upward. As of Friday, May 29, it is now at 51,000.

Trump has always depended on market increases to boost his popularity, but today as the market has increased his poll numbers have collapsed to record lows (60% disapproval, 36% approval FPO). His problem is that the market is missing voter economic anxiety and the growing dislike of him and his administration's performance.

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Polis Roughed up by Democrats

Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, left, shakes hands with U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet at a Colorado Mesa University candidate forum, 2022. Photo: Christopher Tomlinson/The Daily Sentinel

Colorado Democratic political class has turned abruptly and loudly against Governor Jared Polis. As he approaches the end of an eight year term, Polis, knowing the likely political consequences, commuted the sentence of election denier Tina Peters.

As Mark Barabak wrote in the LA Times, Polis was criticized by fellow Democrats and many Republicans – including Peters’ prosecutor and a majority of Colorado’s election clerks. Senator Bennet, the Democratic candidate for governor to replace Polis, made it a major talking point. “It was a disqualifying decision” for me appointing Polis to the Senate.

In an understatement, I said, “He was aiming for a national profile. This makes it much more difficult.” In fact, his political career in Colorado has likely taken a blow difficult to recover from. Nationally, he was second tier, now he’s out of consideration.

LA TIMES ARTICLE:
Three wrongs don’t make a right in case of election denier and Colorado governor
THE GRAND JUNCTION DAILY SENTINEL ARTICLE:
Peters fallout: Bennet wouldn't appoint Polis to Senate as guv; Vance says Peters eligible for fund