Trump’s Low Average is Anti-Trump, Not Pro-Democrat

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., joined by Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., speaks to members of the media following the Republican Senate Policy Luncheon at the U.S. Capitol on Oct. 7, 2025. Kevin Dietsch / Getty Images

President Donald Trump is now consistently more than 15 points negative among voters rating his performance, with an approval frequently below 42 percent and disapproval at or above 55 percent in RealClearPolitics conservative survey site. Viewing his position on other sites such as FiftyPlusOne show Trump 21 points negative with a 38 percent approval. The Decision Desk HQ shows a 41 percent approval, 55 percent disapproval.

However, as Trump’s approval declines, voters do not appear to be endorsing the Democrats’ brand. Seven months out, Democrats only register a 4 to 5 point advantage on the generic ballot. While that is enough to win the House, it’s not a 30 or 40 seat Democratic landslide as the 2006, 2010, and 2018 elections were.

But it may not matter. They may just vote against Trump without really embracing the Democrats, their candidates or issue positions. Historically, approval ratings this low should produce a high turnout of more angry voters at the November mid-term election. It may also demotivate non-MAGA Trump voters from participating. Republican leadership is warning of a disaster and Trump is acting nervous.

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Progressives Upset Old Guard Democrats

Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman, left, and Mayor Karen Bass.
Photos: Jason Armond and Ronaldo Bolanos / Los Angeles Times

Since the mayoral victory of Zohran Mamdani in New York, the biggest reported trend in the Democratic Party has been older incumbents facing younger, usually more “progressive” challengers. And in urban settings the challengers are often members of socialist organizations, (e.g., Democratic Socialists of America).

Two members of the new wave of urban challengers in LA and Denver are significantly younger than their incumbents/opponents, they are South Asian/African, very progressive, and good at social and digital media, especially with younger voters. They tend to be more supportive of Palestinians and represent the cutting edge of the no-more-arms-funding-for-Israel cadre, which is a growing wing of the Democratic Party.

Both candidates are long shots. However Mamdani won, Kiros won a surprise party victory in Denver and is on the ballot, as is Raman in LA, who runs second in many polls.

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Is Karen Bass in Trouble? Yes.

Then-Rep. Karen Bass at the kickoff to her campaign for mayor of Los Angeles on Oct. 16, 2021. (Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)

A Loyola Marymount University poll shows Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass losing to last-minute candidate socialist City Council member Nithya Raman.

The poll’s methodology was questionable in terms of producing an accurate snapshot of the status of the race as of March 16, but it captures the race’s fluidity. All polls conducted so far show an electorate not yet attentive, not too excited about the choices and significantly undecided. In this poll, candidates were given labels. Bass was the incumbent mayor, and a veteran legislator focused on homelessness. Raman was LA City Councilmember, progressive, focused on housing affordability. People voted for the labels as much as the names. Non-incumbent, progressive won.

Except for Bass, the field of candidates is not known and spending in the race is just beginning, so it’s early. But clearly Bass is handicapped by being a veteran establishment mayor of a city government people are not happy with. In addition, her performance during the fire was a major controversy of which she remains vulnerable. Numerous polls show 80% of LA voters would consider someone beyond Bass.

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National Dashboard: Iran Takes Trump Down

Gas prices are displayed at a Shell station in Pasadena, Calif., on March 30, 2026. Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images

President Trump’s 16 percent negative is a new low for his second term. RealClearPolitics’ aggregator website records a 41 percent approval, which is higher than most other political websites due to it including a host of right leaning polling sources whose methods consistently show partisan bias.

One month into the US/Israel Iran War has crushed Donald Trump’s opinion numbers. After a forced retreat in February from Davos and Minnesota, Trump now faces rising gas prices and a down stock market.

His economic performance declined 4 points to the negative in March – from 15 to 19 points. The war produced no rally effect and is opposed by a majority of voters. The cost of living and the economy continue to be the highest priority issues. It is likely Republicans will lose the House. The only question appears to be the size of the swing. Could the Democrats win a majority of the Senate? Still a stretch but Majority Leader Thune has to be concerned for his vulnerable seats.

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Republicans Dominate Jungle Primary for Governor

Photo: CBS News

Numerous news stories have headlined that the crowd of California Democrats in the governor race is making it possible two Republican candidates could be the leading vote getters in the June 2 primary, in spite of California being an overwhelmingly Democratic state. The wide-open feature of the “jungle” primary where the top two candidates regardless of party go to the November general election makes the anomaly of no Democrat in the general election possible.

As the latest IGS poll shows, Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco are ahead with 33 percent of the vote. Next, three Democrats are splitting 36 percent. Five more Democrats trail, scattering 15 percent of the vote. Sixteen percent are undecided with many being unlikely voters.

Editorials have warned Democrats of the possibility and the Democratic party leadership has encouraged but thus far not pushed less successful candidate to exit the race. None have dropped out, even though several have lost support. Xavier Becerra and Antonio Villaraigosa have lost or stayed flat in polls for months. Betty Yee and Tony Thurmond, stalled at 1 percent, are wasting their time. Will anyone of them withdraw and endorse one of the three front runners, Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter or Tom Steyer?

Swalwell has considerable potential as major party leaders and donors haven’t favored Porter (2024 lost senate jungle primary) or Steyer (2020 president-no delegates) in their previous statewide or national efforts. But billionaire Steyer has spent more than $90 million on his campaign, especially for media, and apparently will spend considerably more to become one of the top two.

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Harris Don’t Run – California Democrats

President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have spent years raising money for their re-election campaign. Photo: Eric Lee/The New York Times

The latest California poll from top pollster Mark DeCamillo reports California Democrats rank former vice president and former presidential candidate Kamala Harris a weak fourth (9%) as their choice for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. Governor Gavin Newsom was first (28%) with Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez second (14%) and Pete Buttigieg third (11%).

Obviously, it is years early for dispositive statements but it’s still telling that Harris, who hails California her home and represented Democrats as their senator and attorney general, is losing to two out-of-state political figures for the presidential nomination.

Fourteen candidates were listed in the poll but only six receive 3 percent or more support. Other top choices by Democrats were Senator Mark Kelly (7%) and Governor J.B. Pritzker (3%).

IGS Poll Release #2026-04: Democratic Presidential Preferences

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Broncos Fall From Grace

Empower Field at Mile High - Photo Courtesy of CBS

Peyton Manning led the Denver Broncos into the Super Bowl, losing to the Seattle Seahawks 43 to 8 in 2013. In a poll conducted in the Denver region by Ciruli Associates, the Broncos received 55% “very favorable” rating from voters in October 2013. The Broncos were one of the most popular teams in the NFL. (see attached links)

After a number of head coach and quarterback changes and numerous mediocre seasons, the Broncos improved in 2025 getting to a wild card game but losing to Buffalo Bills in a snow storm 7 to 31. However, in a 2025 poll, in spite of the better season, the Broncos only received a 36% “very favorable” rating.

The polling suggests the Broncos have work to do to win back general fan appreciation. Also, it’s good the ownership doesn’t appear to be interested in a taxpayer-supported new stadium. They would start out in a weak position.

Question 2025:
ONLINE: Please read the names of some organizations and entities in the Denver metro area and indicate whether you have a (ROTATE) favorable or unfavorable opinion of each one. If you have never hears of one, please indicate that.
PHONE I’m going to read you the names of some organizations and entities in the Denver metro area. Please tell me whether you have a (ROTATE) favorable or unfavorable opinion of each one. If you have never heard of one, please just say so.
PHONE IF CHOICE GIVEN: Is that very (favorable/unfavorable) or just somewhat (favorable/unfavorable)?

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Denver Region Values Culture - CATZ

Denver Botanic Gardens Summer Concert Series | Photo: www.botanicgardens.org

In a new poll, the Denver region’s cultural facilities and programs were rated “very favorable.” Citizens for Arts to Zoo, a group that supports the seven-county region’s Scientific and Cultural Facilities District, regularly sponsors polls, including in 2013 and 2025.

In the 2025 poll, regional cultural organizations are rated “very favorable” with high voter awareness. The Denver Museum of Nature and Science had the highest rating at 73 percent and the Denver Botanic Gardens came in second with 70 percent. Polling in 2013 (Ciruli Associates), twelve years ago, showed similar high popularity: DMNS 69%, Denver Zoo 67%, Denver Art Museum 62%, Denver Botanic Garden 60%, Denver Center of Performing Arts 56%. Organizations like the Arvada Center and Butterfly Pavilion have lower levels of regional awareness but are highly rated among voters familiar with them. Notice: culture beats sports (December 2025). The Broncos were rated 55% in 2013 and 36% in 2025.

When asked why local cultural organizations were important, residents said they provide education, benefit children, offer self-improvement, value history, encourage civic pride, and teach tolerance and diversity.

The survey of 615 conducted December 5-10, 2025, by New Bridge Strategy and Keating Research has a margin of error of ± 3.95%. The 2013 survey was conducted by Ciruli Associates (±4%).

Question 2025:
ONLINE: Please read the names of some organizations and entities in the Denver metro area and indicate whether you have a (ROTATE) favorable or unfavorable opinion of each one. If you have never heard of one, please indicate that.
PHONE: I’m going to read you the names of some organizations and entities in the Denver metro area. Please tell me whether you have a (ROTATE) favorable or unfavorable opinion of each one. If you have never heard of one, please just say so.
PHONE IF CHOICE GIVEN: Is that very (favorable/unfavorable) or just somewhat (favorable/unfavorable)?

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Regional Cooperation - SCFD

We are in stormy times. But the Denver region’s arts, culture and science scene is one of the few topics that elevates our thinking and provides joy and entertainment.

Denver’s unique method of funding culture through the Scientific and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD) also brings the seven-county region together. The SCFD cultural initiative began in 1988 and has been repeatedly approved by voters, most recently in 2016 by 63%, winning the region’s seven counties.

In periodic polls, the voters’ regional support for “cooperating on providing funding for the arts, zoos and museums” has been tested. Most voters (84%) said “yes” to cooperation in 2025 and 89 percent in 2013. Another question repeated from a 2013 survey asked the voters across the seven counties if regional taxpayers should help pay for the Denver Zoo and Museum of Nature and Science or only Denver taxpayers. In the latest poll, three quarters (77%) said the region should help pay, even greater than the 73% in 2013.

Question: Please tell me which of the following comes closer to what you think even if neither one matches your view exactly.

• The Denver Zoo and Museum of Nature and Science serve the entire region and regional taxpayers should help pay for them, or
• The Denver Zoo and Museum of Nature and Science are located in Denver, and if they need tax dollars, only Denver taxpayers should pay for them.

Question: For each of the following statements please indicate if you agree or disagree.

• It is important for the metro region to cooperate on providing funding for the arts, zoos and museums.

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1968 – A Shout and Then Tragedy

Sen. Robert F. Kennedy on June 5, 1968.

On a hot June night 58 years ago, I stood with a crowd of supporters in the Embassy Ballroom of Los Angeles’s Ambassador Hotel cheering on Robert F. Kennedy as he basked in the California primary victory and shouted – “On to Chicago!” As a volunteer with the advance staff, I and many of us were looking to the next primary in New York and then on to Chicago for the Democratic Convention.

Kennedy had entered the race on March 16 and President Lyndon Johnson was out of the running two weeks later. So began the 82-day final campaign of RFK. The tragedy that night ended two-months of intense effort and hope that the Vietnam War could end quickly and America could be put on a new path of reconciliation. It also put my involvement in politics on hold.

About a month before that night, I walked in the door of the mostly empty Kennedy office on Wilshire Blvd. I had been working for a local LA autobody shop and drove an old Buick. Jerry Bruno, the top advance man for the campaign, was elated. He asked if I had a car, handed me a Joseph P. Kennedy credit card, and said go to the airport and pick up a filmed campaign biography produced by Charles Guggenheim. I didn’t own a credit card and hadn’t been to the LA airport but I was off. It took more than an hour to find the documentary and return. Bruno no doubt thought he’d seen the last of me.

The advance staff mostly traveled ahead of the candidate, who was often motorcading through streets on the way to outside photo ops and speeches. Our job was to hold the crowd for the always-late Kennedy. We mounted a loudspeaker on the Buick and announced he was near and handed out posters in busy locations.

Kennedy campaigns in the Watts section of Los Angeles in 1968.
David Hume Kennerly/Getty Images

Bruno arranged for Kennedy to meet us Monday before what was to be the last election-day effort. At that moment he looked confident and we all thought he would win. Crowds were bigger and more enthusiastic. We worked in Los Angeles on Monday and Tuesday and then we headed to the hotel for the anticipated victory party.

I heard the shots and screams walking down the steps to the main ballroom – I quickly reversed course and joined a group to clear a space for people, some wounded, to exit the kitchen. Later, I stayed in the Kennedy bungalow with staff and others until it was clear the night watch was over.

Johnson’s withdrawal made establishment politics suddenly seem relevant. Senator Eugene McCarthy was an alternative but not a viable choice in my view. I was too pragmatic and wanted someone who could win both the nomination and the election. McCarthy had the educated class. But Kennedy could get most college students and, more importantly, the working class and ethnic voters with the Martin Luther King constituency – a rare talent.

The final shout of the year from Chicago in August was the “whole world’s watching.”

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National Dashboard: Trump in Retreat

Minnesota Retreat, Greenland Collapse, Epstein Deluge

Demonstrators take part in an anti-ICE protest in Minnesota, US, on January 20, 2026 [Seth Herald/Reuters]

In most reputable polls President Trump’s approval is below 40 percent of the electorate. And it’s beginning to affect his control over the political environment. After the White House decided to surge 3,000 ICE agents into Minnesota for immigration enforcement, it had to withdraw. The debacle may have put the entire surge strategy on hold. His Davos Greenland push failed after an embarrassing display of bluster and then retreat. Finally, after months of delay and distraction, the Epstein files continue to dominate the news cycle and lead to more career retirements and removals.

President Trump’s 13 percent negative with a 42 percent approval is from the Republican-leaning RealClearPolitics. A different respected aggregator, Fifty Plus One, has him 19 points down, 38% approval to 57% disapproval.

The view grows that Speaker Johnson, so beholden to Trump, will lose his gavel in spite of efforts to change election districts and restrict turnout of Democratic voters. His majority, if the four vacancies are won by the incumbent party, would be 220 to 215 for the Democrats. Three seats will shift the majority.

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Denver Metro Sales Tax Ends Year Up

After two years of flat sales tax revenue collection in the Denver metro area, the modest 2025 increase will be welcomed by metro municipalities and other local governments facing budget shortfalls and higher expenses. Out of the seven counties, some are doing better than others.

The Denver metro seven county sales tax revenue ended up $13 million for a one percent sales tax over last year. The Scientific and Cultural Facilities District will see $1.3 million more from its one-tenth-of-cent sales tax.

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Colorado and California Flatline

The populations of Colorado and California have both flatlined after decades of increases. Colorado growth this century was spectacular and has not yet hit zero but dropped to its lowest level since 1959 and was only 0.4% in the last 12 months, below the slow U.S. growth rate. There have been declines in some key metro cities like Boulder and Denver.

In 1965, I couldn’t wait to move to California, find a job in Hollywood and start college. Not today. Millennials and Gen Z are not flocking to the Golden State. California has seen a significant fall off after being the country’s growth leader for decades, primarily because people have stopped moving there.

After the 2000 Census, Colorado gained its eighth Congressional seat and California, for the first time in history, lost one. Both states in recent decades received high net in migration. It has stopped both internationally with the closed borders since 2024 and internally due to much lower U.S. inflow matched or exceeded by outflow, especially in California. If California growth doesn’t increase, it could lose up to 4 Congressional seats in 2030.

SCFD – Fueling Recovery from Pandemic

The Denver Art Museum is located in the Golden Triangle Creative District. Photo by Visit Denver

After the pandemic shutdown of the Denver metro area’s economy, a slow recovery in the cultural community is notable, fueled by prodigious work by the cultural organizations and the steady funding of the Scientific and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD). The latest economic impact study from the Colorado Business Committee of the Arts (CBCA) shows a $1 billion increase to $3.1 billion from its pre-pandemic 2018 report.

Although attendance is still recovering, the SCFD is an economic powerhouse providing more than 14,000 jobs, an increase of nearly 3,000 since 2018. The growth in metro adult residents participating in cultural programs has doubled in the 35 years of SCFD existence and children attendance increased four times. Economic impact, with its employment component, is the major boost for the region’s hospitality and tourism industry!

Every two years since 1992, the CBCA in partnership with the (SCFD) conducts a study on the economic impact of the arts and cultural organizations funded by the SCFD in the seven-county metro area. In 1991, shortly after the District was established (1989), Deloitte Consulting conducted the first economic impact and activity study of the arts.

Ciruli Associates produced the report and A.B. Hirschfield Press provided the printing. Since then, a similar study sponsored by the CBCA has been conducted every two years, with the latest report just being released covering from 2025.

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The Baby Boom Celebrates Their 80th Birthday

The earliest of the baby boom, born in 1946, are about to celebrate their 80th Valentine’s Day. The Clintons, W. Bush, Trump, Cher, Dolly Parton all have a reason to make it an especially loving day. It’s near my birthday and we will have a long family lunch near Newport.

Pick a song, a poem, a movie, a meal, a place that is romantic and share with your loved ones. I watch Casablanca every New Year’s. This song, “As Time Goes By,” is the movie’s signature love theme, “Play it, Sam.”

You must remember this
A kiss is still a kiss
A sigh is just a sigh
The fundamental things apply
As time goes by

And when two lovers woo
They still say, “I love you.”
On that you can rely
No matter what the future brings
As time goes by

Happy Valentine’s Day

Colorado Presidential 2028 Election Turnout

Denver Metro Area Map courtesy of www.larryhotz.com

The 2028 presidential election will bring out Colorado’s largest number of voters. The following chart shows voter turnout among Colorado, regional and Denver voters in the 2016 and the more recent 2020, 2022, and 2024 elections. Denver’s most recent bond election had 192,000 votes (2025), an unusually high number of voters for an off-year/off-year event. The falloff of votes in 2024 from 2020 reflects Colorado’s population slowdown and a presidential candidate less attractive for Democratic voters.

Colorado’s 2026 mid-term election for U.S. senator, governor, statewide constitutional offices can expect about 2.5 million voters.

The next presidential election will likely be very competitive within party primaries and between the parties in the general election. Highly polarized voters, especially on cultural issues, can be expected. The Denver region should see more than 1.7 million votes, the turnout in 2024.

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Colorado Democratic Party Nominations Tend to Go to Money and Establishment

Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser, left, and U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet, both candidates for governor, participate in a forum hosted by Colorado Young Democrats on Jan. 10, 2026. (Photo by Chase Woodruff/Colorado Newsline)

In the Colorado Democratic Party’s two-phase nominating system, activists often dominate its old-time caucus system but don’t win the nomination in the later voter primary. Governor Jared Polis and Senator John Hickenlooper both lost their party convention/caucus endorsements in their first elections but went on to win primaries and then general elections. That history bodes well for Senators Michael Bennet and John Hickenlooper winning their nominations and general elections in spite of party challenges.

Hickenlooper has left-wing challengers who may excite some grassroots progressive support (Julie Gonzales and Karen Breslin) but their campaigns so far have attracted little attention and less money. History suggests the Democratic party’s progressive wing can’t beat the party’s establishment candidate. Hickenlooper, as a former mayor, governor and now senator is the well funded, old guard incumbent.

Bennet vs Attorney General Phil Weiser race doesn’t have a clear moderate vs. progressive atmosphere although Weiser is the candidate closer to home. Senators are frequently burdened by the distance and poor image of Washington DC. But as winning the caucus vote shows, party activists’ support doesn’t make up for money and endorsements in the primary, Bennet advantage. Whichever one wins will likely win the general election.

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Eisenhower in Davos

Eisenhower: This Piece of Ground at Laguna Playhouse

Just saw the one man play “Eisenhower: This Piece of Ground” at the Laguna Playhouse. If President Eisenhower had been in Davos last week, he would have praised NATO’s incredible perseverance and the peace in Europe it has secured. He would have pledged U.S. strength unambiguously to it and to the sovereignty of Ukraine.

His biggest political fight was with the isolationist wing in the Republican Party and among the U.S. electorate. He won and supported a world of alliances, institutions and rules that benefited the American people and its economy. He aided democratic allies and spread the country’s ideals. Eisenhower helped launch and lead a golden era in American politics.

SCFD Has Grown and Changed

In 2028, the Scientific and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD) will be up for voter reapproval. It has been a huge success in funding cultural organizations and is praised and envied as a national model. There has, of course, been substantial growth in the seven county Denver metro area in both population and the number of cultural organizations serving the population since the SCFD voter approval in 1988. The amount distributed has also increased due to the growth in the revenue from sales tax. It produced $14 million 1989 and $85 last year.

The distribution formula of the SCFD has been adjusted at each of its three reauthorization elections (1994, 2004, 2016). The 1987 statute, approved by 75 percent of regional voters in 1988, allocated 65% of the funds to Tier I, 25% to Tier II, and 10% to Tier III. Today, after repeated adjustments, the formula is 59%, 24%, and 17% respectively (SCFD Annual Report 2024). Tier I began with four large regional organizations and after the 2004 legislative changes, now has five. Denver Center of Performing Arts, the largest organization in Tier II, was removed and placed in Tier I, providing more funding to share among Tier II mid-sized organizations. Tier III, smaller county level organizations, have had the most substantial increase from 10% to 17%, a seventy percent increase.

The table compares the percentages and total distribution (millions) of each SCFD Tier in 1989 and 2024.

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Trump Starts New Year in Trouble

Trump at World Economic Forum in Davos Photo via BBC.com

President Donald Trump celebrates the first anniversary of his January 20 inauguration deep in negative approval territory. Trump appears to ignore it, but it has the attention of Republicans facing a very difficult mid-term election.

Trump approval downturn, begun in November, was reflected in the November 4 Republican election wipeout. The public’s souring mood has continued in spite of Trump’s best efforts on economic action, public relations, and distracting foreign adventures.

His 13 percent negative approval is from the Republican-leaning Real Clear Politics. A different respected aggregator, Fifty Plus One, has him 16 points down, 40% approval to 56% disapproval.

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SCFD Approaching 40th Anniversary

Led by Six Executive Directors

The Scientific and Cultural District (SCFD) is a respected and envied national model for regional cultural funding. The District’s primary task is to distribute money collected from the one-tenth-of-a-cent sales tax to the cultural organizations and the counties in the district in a precise formula detailed by the SCFD statute (today about $85 million annually). The District has held three successful renewal elections and will have another in 2028.

The District has had six executive directors since its inception in 1989. All have been selected and governed by a board with representatives from the six – now – seven, counties in the Denver region and several additional appointments by the governor.

Executive directors’ terms have generally been 8 or 9 years. As the first director and person who helped draft the statute, I organized the first year’s distribution of approximately $14 million and helped hire the next executive director, Jane Hansberry. Directors have all had backgrounds in nonprofit or public policy management and have been mindful of the restrictions and purpose of the statute and its basic principles. The core of those are being frugal and careful stewards of taxpayer money and avoiding partisan and political activities.

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No Restraint on Trump Entering 2026

US President Donald Trump, alongside Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following US military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3.Jim WATSON / AFP—Getty Images

In spite of a record low job approval, President Trump continues controversial daily foreign and domestic actions with little effective restraint from Congress, courts and widespread public opposition. Five guardrails were identified early in Trump’s term and he has crashed or scraped some but has done much better than expected on others.

Approval: His approval crossed into negative territory on the lunar eclipse, March 14, and it has grown more negative. It’s now at 43% in RCP and 40% in FPO, two well known aggregators. Although he’s playing defense on the economy, his weakest issue, Trump is still operating with his usual insouciance.

Inflation: Most economists predicted an uptick in inflation due to tariffs; it hasn’t happened.

Unemployment: Unemployment has started to increase. Trump believes the One Big Beautiful Bill tax cuts and lower interest rates will solve any unemployment problem.

DOW: The DOW’s 13% rise, the third double digit increase in three years, has pleased the investment class. He considers it his most important approval index.

House: Speaker Mike Johnson is in about the same terrible shape today he was at the start of his speakership. And, early predictions are he will lose the House, if closely, in 2026.

Trump begins 2026 in a weakened position but with no apparent restraints. Expect another wild year.

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2026 – The Era of Austerity Intensifies

Nearly 1,000 feet of welded pipe lays next to the Arkansas Valley Conduit ditch in eastern Pueblo County. (Mike Sweeney, Special to the Colorado Sun)

One year ago, in a Brighton speech on a snowy January day, I described Colorado’s new era of austerity to the Denver regions’ mayor’s association. Recognition was just beginning that Colorado was in a major population and tax revenue slowdown. Within two months, local and state government began adjusting to the fiscal crisis and announcing budget reductions, program cuts, and layoffs.

The presentation was only four days after President Trump’s inauguration. While it was obvious federal budget disruptions were coming, no one saw the depth, speed or partisanship of the Federal retrenchments.

Colorado has been placed on a Trump hit list for fiscal punishment. Funding for a major, long-promised water project in the Arkansas Valley was just vetoed. This week, $10 billion in federal health, food and child care services funding was frozen for Democratic states – Colorado, California, Illinois, New York and Minnesota. The list reflects the Administration’s claim that Democratic states likely share the Minnesota fraud problem. But more important for Colorado is the state’s lack of cooperation to free Trump supporter and election denier, Tina Peters.

The era of austerity is just beginning.

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Market Ends Up Despite the Drama and Chaos

President Donald Trump holds up a chart of reciprocal tariffs chart
Photo: Chip Somodevilla Getty Images

The dire predictions during President Trump’s first quarter, which included surging inflation and a slowing economy proved mostly wrong.

After his abrupt January start and breakneck pace, Trump shocked the political and economic establishment with DOGE cuts, Liberation Day tariffs (April 2), and mass deportations. The reaction from the investment class was a market dive that didn’t recover until June. But hard numbers reported on inflation and unemployment moved only slightly and the drama and chaos didn’t hold the markets down.

The DOW ended the year up 13 points. The third year of double-digit returns (up 12.9 points in 2024 and 13.7 in 2023). The S&P grew 16 points and the NASDAQ composite up 20, mostly driven by the AI investment boom.

Although the new year promises more foreign and domestic conflict, the market appears to be reasonably optimistic that interest rate and tax cuts and continued AI investment will provide an upbeat early year. But expect churn - four years of record market growth is possible, not probable.

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