First Half Up in Spite of Uncertainty

A view of commercial cargo vessels and crude oil tankers are anchored in the Gulf of Oman, off the coast of Muscat, Oman, on June 21, 2026. Photo: Shady Alassar, Anadolu Agency

The momentum for stocks, especially high tech, continues. The mid-year returns are at or near double digits with Dow and S&P up 9 percent and the NAZ ahead 13 points. The Dow, now above 52,000, is at its 18th record high for the year.

AI continues to drive the tech sector and uplift many others tertiary beneficiaries including small caps. Earnings growth has remained high. Consumers seem to be absorbing the inflation and the disruption of the Iran War appears to be dissipated through off-and-on negotiations. In spite of the world economic edginess, many analysts remain reasonably optimistic for the rest of the year.

But the market is likely to remain volatile. Interest rates, the AI surge, its durability and costs, and oil prices are all subject to unpredictable economic and geopolitical factors.

RELATED:
Dow Bounces Around 50,000 Jun 3, 2026
Market Ends Up Despite the Drama and Chaos Jan 7, 2026
Market Ends Up After Volatile Quarter Jul 3, 2025
Trump’s Agenda Could be Volatile for Market Dec 16, 2024

We Will Not Wait

Melat Kiros, center, joins Colorado Democratic leaders at a post-primary rally in Denver on Thursday. Photo: Alayna Alvarez/Axios

Melat Kiros joined her fellow Democrats in a unity rally immediately after the votes were counted. Her slogan, “We will not wait,” was still echoing through the state’s and the nation’s political establishment.

Denver Democrats often lead the country in breaking new political ground.

Pat Schroeder	1972	"She wins we win"
Federico Pena	1983	"Imagine a great city"
Melat Kiros	2026	"We will not wait"

RELATED:
Denver Makes Primary History and Leads the Progressive Pack Jul 2, 2026

Hickenlooper Narrowly Wins Last Term in Unruly Year

U.S. Sen. John Hickenlooper, left, speaks to the crowd as former U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar watches on at Hickenlooper's primary election night watch party in Denver's Uptown neighborhood on June 30, 2026. (John Ingold, The Colorado Sun)

John Hickenlooper’s reelection this year appeared secure against an underfunded State Senator, but the anti-establishment wave affecting younger Democratic voters did raise anxiety. In fact, as the final count came in he only won by 6 points, hardly a landslide reelection.

Fortunately, Hickenlooper announced this is his last term. His 23-year political career has had considerable good timing and an unconventional start. He has become a brand and is well served by an unusual name and a slightly goofy persona.

He entered politics as a Denver barman advocating for lower downtown, parlayed it into a surprising but successful campaign for Denver Mayor in 2003. Good fortune came again when Governor Bill Ritter decided to stop after one term, making Hickenlooper the top choice in 2010, a chaotic year for the Republican Party. He won with 51 percent of the vote. Finally, the U.S. Senate became a possibility when Republican Cory Gardner defeated Senator Mark Udall in his 2014 reelection effort but could not withstand the anti-Trump wave in Colorado in his first reelection and lost to Hickenlooper.

How will Hickenlooper adapt to the new political environment? The 2028 presidential election, which will likely bring a Senate change in Colorado, should keep the state’s elections, at least primaries, in flux.

Five Observations from the Colorado Primary

Melat Kiros, a Democratic socialist running to unseat U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette, speaks from the steps of the Colorado State Capitol Sunday, June 14. (Adrian O’Farrill, Rocky Mountain PBS via the Colorado Capitol News Alliance)

Colorado 2026 primary hit local politics like a tsunami and kicked the door open for the national conversation on the direction of the Democratic Party. Five observations:

1. Anti-Trump: Opposing President Trump was the top attitude Democrats wanted to see in their candidates. Weiser’s 66 lawsuits against Trump were worth millions from Michael Bloomberg.
   
   
2. Anti-Establishment, Anti-DC: Michael Bennet not only is a long time member of the Washington, DC Democratic establishment. His strategy of a campaign with endorsements from leading politicians and funded by billionaires and corporate donors was exactly the wrong tone and vibe for this electorate.
   
   
3. Ideology: First identified in New York, DSA members have been working steadily to impact the Democratic Party and had success. The Democratic Party’s lack of solutions for the affordability crisis, divisions on Israel, and apparent inability to inhibit Trump has become a major opportunity for far left and socialist appeals.
   
   
4. Generation: The Millennial generation is now a major force in the electorate. They are 30 to 49 years old and with Gen Z, a younger cohort, are starting to dominate politics. Younger, more diverse, more liberal and digital, they want to shake up the system. Younger candidates with passion and outside-the-frame views are favored.
   
   
5. Social Media: While television ads are still prolific in big money races and mailers locally, social media and digital ads are fueling the upsets and insurgencies in 2026.
   
   

RELATED:
Polling and the New York Primary Warned the Establishment – Change is Coming Jul 6, 2026
Denver Makes Primary History and Leads the Progressive Pack Jul 2, 2026
Millennials/Gen Z Getting into Politics Jul 2, 2026
Colorado’s Embattled Democratic Establishment Jun 25, 2026

Polling and the New York Primary Warned the Establishment – Change is Coming

Phil Weiser at an election night party after winning the Democratic primary. Photo: Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images

Michael Bennet’s two-to-one lead in 2025 and early 2026 dissipated as the anti-establishment-anti-DC trends started to engage Democrats in general, especially Millennials and Gen Z. Fighting president Trump and not being part of the system was a winner.

A May and June poll put Phil Weiser ahead. Notice 15 points moved from undecided to Weiser the last month. The New York primary result of June 23 signaled change was coming. All the final trends worked for Weiser.

Denver Makes Primary History and Leads the Progressive Pack

D1 candidate Melat Kiros' supporters cheer as a second round of election results dropped in her favor, widening her lead over incumbent Diana DeGette. June 30, 2026.
Photo: McKenzie Lange/CPR News

Denver Democratic primary voters changed the direction of Colorado politics. Across the board they provided progressive muscle to local and statewide candidates. Denver’s 155,000 votes were 18% of the statewide vote.

• While John Hickenlooper won statewide (53%-47%), he lost the city he was mayor of to Julie Gonzales by 7 points, 54% to 47%.
• Michael Bennet, former Denver chief of staff and school superintendent, became the face of the corporate DC establishment and lost Denver to Phil Weiser 34% to 66% on his way to losing the election statewide by 13 points.
• Diane DeGette in her 7th Congressional election, did better than Bennet at 40% but lost to Melat Kiros, a 29-year-old socialist, by 13 points.
• Denver’s Progressive voters gave Amanda Gonzales, the socialist-leaning (former DSA member) running for Secretary of State, a 67% margin, helping her to a 28 point win.

Millennials/Gen Z Getting into Politics

Nikita Valdez jumps while cheering after the first report of the election results show Democratic congressional candidate Melat Kiros in the lead during a primary election night watch party at The Broadway, Tuesday, June 30, 2026, in Denver. (AP Photo/Rebecca Slezak)

Millennials, the demographic cohort starting in 1981 and now between 30 and 45 years old, are overtaking the dominant Baby Boom that is entering their 70’s and 80’s. When combined with younger Generation Z (15-29), they together have 40 percent of the population, more than a third of the vote known for their digital fluency and social activism.

The Baby Boomers came to political prominence in Colorado in the late 1970’s and 1980’s. Gary Hart, Tim Wirth, Sam Brown, and Pat Schroeder, (anti-war, was elected at 32 years old in 1972) were all strongly supported by Baby Boom voters. In Denver, Federico Pena, the perceived Mamdani of the era, became mayor in 1983, beating the establishment candidates.

Polling in the 2026 Democratic primary reflected the new generation's power and preferences. They are more diverse than the over-45 generations, more liberal, more anti-establishment and they are voting for change. They preferred Phil Weiser and not Diane DeGette. They helped new candidates win legislative primaries and the competitive 8th congressional district insurgent candidate.

The 2026 Democratic Primary Turnout

A voter casts their ballot at a drop box in Denver on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, in this file photo. (AP Photo/Chet Strange, File)

Although Colorado paper ballot returns have been slow, competitive races with significant spending tend to produce higher rates of turnout. Also, Donald Trump has increased turnout of Colorado Democrats anxious to send a message. For example, 35 percent of active voters turned out in the very competitive 2018 primary election but a lower 32 percent in 2022, with no statewide officeholders contested.

Will voter turnout above 35 percent help the embattled establishment or the progressive challengers?

READ ARTICLE:
Colorado’s primary turnout tops 10% as election officials warn it’s too late to mail ballots June 24, 2026

Colorado Election Gets Attention

Mr. Weiser, second from left, spoke with voters at Bluebird Café in Glenwood Springs, Colo. Photo: Cheney Orr for The New York Times

After years of mostly one party government and no primaries, Colorado is getting media attention as the nation’s anti-establishment, left-leading movement slams into the state’s Democratic primaries.

The New York Times weekend story on the governor’s race poses Michael Bennet as the big money establishment candidates whose campaign has faded from a 30 point advantage to a toss-up. Opponent Phil Weiser has positioned himself as a fighter in a year the party is hungry for combat with the Trump Administration and is highly anti-establishment.

NY TIMES ARTICLE:
Colorado’s Primary for Governor Pivots to Trump and Who Will Fight Him June 28, 2026

Colorado’s Embattled Democratic Establishment

U.S. Senator Michael Bennet and Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser participate in a forum for the Democratic candidates running for governor, Saturday, June 13, 2026, at Colorado State University's Lory Student Center in Fort Collins. (Photo: Tanya Fabian, Special to The Colorado Sun)

Colorado’s Democratic establishment officeholders are waging expensive defensive battles against a rising left wing.

The state’s senior U.S. Senator, Michael Bennet, who was seen as the strong favorite to win the gubernatorial primary, is spending millions in negative advertising to win what now appears a competitive race. Attorney General Phil Weiser benefiting from not being a long-time Washington officeholder, is riding the anti-establishment forces. Most observers believe Bennet will lose Denver, the party’s heartland, although they still believe he has an advantage.

Fifteen-term Congresswoman Diane DeGette who nearly lost the party nomination in earlier assemblies is in a difficult reelection with two opponents, one a young Black (Ethiopian) with no political experience but a “time for a change” progressive platform. It would be a major upset if she would lose.

Even John Hickenlooper, who has been a major Colorado political figure since becoming Denver’s mayor in 2003, is running extra hard against an underfunded and little-known opponent, Julie Gonzales. He’s primarily working to keep out of debates to avoid giving her statewide exposure. He will likely win, but the message is the same, the party establishment is on defense.

Should the SCFD Tax be Increased? No!

One of the most popular attributes of the Denver metro area’s Scientific and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD) has been its frugality. In 1988, realizing it was in competition with municipal and county sales taxes, it set a low sales tax rate of one-tenth of a cent. Colorado also has a history of resistance to tax increases. The TABOR limits were being discussed and passed in 1992.

Over the last three decades, due to the economic and population growth in the 7-county region, the tax revenue for cultural institutions increased from $14 million annually to $85 million today.

During reauthorizations, many cultural organizations argued that since there are more organizations they need more money. The campaign group that supports SCFD regularly polls on the tax issue and has found voter resistance to increasing the SCFD tax rate. In December 2025, voters were asked whether not having a tax increase made them more likely to support the SCFD. Sixty-five percent said yes. It also asked whether there were higher priorities for the tax dollars in spite of being in favor of funding arts and culture. Nearly half of voters said there were other priorities.

Question: Thinking about a few other aspects of the Scientific and Cultural Facilities (SCFD) tax extension proposal.

For each one of the following, please indicate if that makes you much more likely to support it, somewhat more likely to support it, or makes no difference in your view one way or the other.

This will not increase taxes.

Question: For each of the following statements please indicate if you agree or disagree:

Arts, museums and theaters are nice to have, but there are higher priorities for our tax dollars to fund right now.

Bennet in Close Race?

U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet, left, and Attorney General Phil Weiser at a gubernatorial debate. (RJ Sangosti / Denver Post via Getty Images)

If the Morning Consult headline is correct, “Michael Bennet may not be the frontrunner for Colorado governor anymore,” it explains the $1 million loan Bennet made to his campaign and Bloomberg’s infusion of cash. The torrent of negative ads has many Democrats unhappy with the tone of the race. Do they put off the unaffected voter? Do they seem desperate? Bennet’s advantage is name identification and massive amounts of money for messaging, especially in the non-metro area. But still, the race is finally getting some drama.

READ:
Morning Digest: Michael Bennet may not be the frontrunner for Colorado governor anymore The Downballot, Jun 16, 2026

Becerra and Hilton Go to the Show - Steyer $200 Million for Third

From left, gubernatorial candidates Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton during The Western Growers California Gubernatorial Candidate Forum at Fresno State in Fresno on April 1, 2026. Photos by Larry Valenzuela, CalMatters

The California governor’s, race due to its top two winner configuration (jungle primary), began with an array of not imposing Democratic candidates and opening polls showing Republicans could take the top two spots. My blog “Republicans Dominate Jungle Primary for Governor” described the anomaly.

But the second half of the California race for governor began April 11 when Democratic favorite, Eric Swalwell, dropped out due to allegations of sexual assault. In less than two weeks, Xavier Becerra moved up 10 points to 15 by April 18 and swiftly became the Democratic frontrunner.

At least a part of Becerra’s ascendence were the flaws in the other Democratic voters’ choices:

• Katie Porter. Although she started the race tied with Swalwell, she had lost credibility after her Senate run in 2024. Many party leaders didn’t trust or like her. She never regained traction after the media blowup incident. It validated a long-standing criticism of a harsh temperament.
• Tom Steyer was never fully embraced by the left and it was not in a good moment for Silicon Valley billionaires. With $200 million spent he got close, but at some point the frequency of the message delivery damaged the messenger.
• Matt Mahan was late to the race, lacked charisma and a clear lane. Antonio Villaraigosa’s losing campaigns weighed on his harsh message of lower expectations.

Becerra, with a center left pragmatic demeanor, was a favorable contrast to the hyperbolic politics of the last few years. He seems calm, low key, and thoughtful.

RELATED:
Becerra New Democratic Frontrunner May 19, 2026
Swalwell Out; Becerra vs Steyer May 4, 2026
Republicans Dominate Jungle Primary for Governor Apr 2, 2026

California Pollsters Track the Governor’s Race

(L-R) Democrat Matt Mahan, Democrat Xavier Becerra, Republican Chad Bianco, Republican Steve Hilton, Democrat Tom Steyer and Democrat Katie Porter during a gubernatorial debate at KRON Studios in San Francisco on Wednesday, April 22, 2026.
Pool/Jason Henry/Bloomberg/Getty Images via SFGATE

More than 20 pollsters released polls in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary (Wikipedia) including the long serving mainstays Berkeley IGS and PPIC. The polls did reasonably well as reflected in the FiftyPlusOne and the other averages identifying Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton as the frontrunners and Tom Steyer a close third.

The polls showed the wild movement of the race from Republican-domination earlier in the year to the Eric Swalwell surge then collapse on April 12 and finally the rapid and steady rise of Xavier Becerra. They also showed Katie Porter and Chad Bianco stalled in secondary positions in their respective parties.

Of course, polls affect elections. Democrats were looking for the most viable candidate to support. Becerra was the beneficiary.

RELATED:
Republicans Dominate Jungle Primary for Governor Apr 2, 2026
Swalwell Out: Becerra vs Steyer May 4, 2026

Is Karen Bass in Trouble? Yes. Part Two

Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman, left, and Mayor Karen Bass.
Photos: Jason Armond and Ronaldo Bolanos / Los Angeles Times

As I asked in an April 8 blog, Karen Bass was in such serious trouble she was unable to secure her reelection in the primary. In fact, Bass is so vulnerable her opponent, progressive/socialist Nathya Raman, begins the race ahead in the first poll. Raman with Spencer Pratt, the conservative populist media influencer, mobilized the 65% of LA voters unhappy with the city’s direction and the mayor’s performance.

Raman, argued, “For too long, City Hall has prioritized giving political advantage to powerful interests that fund elections. Meanwhile, working people pay the price in higher rents, depleted services, and a city that has stopped working for them.”

After a close race for second, late voters pushed Raman ahead of Pratt. Wisely, she attacked Pratt, a Trump-endorsed candidate which cost him votes and lifted her as the arch anti-Trump Democrat.

The general election campaign is likely to be very negative but with some interesting policy options. Bass, as the representative of a disliked establishment, will be in a very difficult five-month reelection but will Raman hit a socialist ceiling?

RELATED:
Progressives Upset Old Guard Democrats Apr 13, 2026
Is Karen Bass in Trouble? Yes. Apr 8, 2026

Is DeGette in Trouble?

From left: U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette, attorney Melat Kiros and University of Colorado Regent Wanda James.

Diane DeGette was surprised by the grassroots strength of Democrats who wanted change and supported her novice opponent Melat Keros. Keros won the top spot in Denver county and District assemblies with DeGette barely making the low threshold of 30%. DeGette, a 30-year incumbent Congresswoman about to be a House subcommittee chair if Democrats take control, is facing the same challenge from a younger, left constituency that propelled big city mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani in New York and now Los Angeles Nithya Raman.

In a few recent primaries, DeGette has won overwhelmingly. Another opponent, Wanda James, petitioned on the ballot. Could she lose 30-40% or more of the vote to the two challengers?

RELATED:
Progressives Upset Old Guard Democrats Apr 13, 2026

Keep the SCFD. It’s a National Model

A History of Success in Supporting Popular Cultural Institutions

The Denver metro region’s Scientific and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD) is a unique and nationally envied model for cultural funding in the United States. Since its founding in 1988, it has provided steady funding to more than 200 cultural organizations and programs annually in the seven-county Denver metro area. It has maintained voter support in three elections to renew the tax. In this century the SCFD has received more than 60 percent support in two elections and was approved by a majority of voters in all seven counties in the metropolitan region.

Polling shows that the popularity of its highest profile cultural organizations make up the major contribution to the voter approval. The next most important attribute is the 35-year operational success of the SCFD program. The administration is frugal with limits on its expenditures and has stayed out of politics and controversy. As a government agency it has an exceptionally low negative rating and a positive reputation. Also, a key element for public support is the regional and comprehensive nature of the original funding design. Its three tiers guarantee funding for cultural programs from the local and county level to the region’s largest, most used and valued institutions, and reserves funds for more than 30 mid-sized organizations.

A polling question asked of 600 Denver metro voters in December of 2025 shows the support for the SCFD when it was linked to major cultural facilities throughout the seven Denver counties.

Question:
In an upcoming election, voters in the Denver metro area will vote on whether or not to extend the one-tenth of one-cent sales tax that funds the Scientific and Cultural Facilities District. It is not a tax increase. It helps fund the Zoo, the Botanic Garden, Butterfly Pavillion, museums, performing arts, nature centers and cultural programs and organizations throughout Arapahoe, Adams, Denver, Boulder, Broomfield, Douglas and Jefferson counties.

If you had to vote today, would you definitely support continuing the Scientific and Cultural Facilities District sales tax, probably support it, probably oppose it or definitely oppose continuing the district sales tax?

RELATED:
Art Funding in the Era of Austerity Apr 22, 2026
Denver Region Values Culture - CATZ Mar 25, 2026

Dow Bounces Around 50,000

U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. President Donald Trump, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick attend a cabinet meeting in the Cabinet Room at the White House, in Washington, D.C., U.S., on May 27, 2026. Evan Vucci/Reuters

Our end-of-the-year recap reported: Despite the drama and chaos, the DOW ended the year up 13 points. The third year of double-digit returns (up 12.9 points in 2024 and 13.7 in 2023). The S&P grew 16 points and the NASDAQ composite up 20, mostly driven by the AI investment boom.

We predicted churn. And indeed the war in Iran, accompanied by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, has featured the DOW bouncing more than 9 times around 50,000. It hit 10,000 at the start of the century (1999), then 30,000 in 2020 as the President Donald Trump first term was ending and President Joe Biden about to start. After a volatile period in the early 2020’s, it crossed to 40,000 in March 2024 as Biden began his fraught final campaign. After a brief 21 months, the DOW gained 10,000 points and crossed 50,000 on February 8, 2026.

As long as corporate earnings hold and interest rates and inflation data don’t accelerate, AI investment may continue to drive it upward. As of Friday, May 29, it is now at 51,000.

Trump has always depended on market increases to boost his popularity, but today as the market has increased his poll numbers have collapsed to record lows (60% disapproval, 36% approval FPO). His problem is that the market is missing voter economic anxiety and the growing dislike of him and his administration's performance.

RELATED:
Market Ends Up Despite the Drama and Chaos January 7, 2026
Market Ends Up After Volatile Quarter July 3, 2025
Trump’s Agenda Could be Volatile for Market December 16, 2024

Polis Roughed up by Democrats

Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, left, shakes hands with U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet at a Colorado Mesa University candidate forum, 2022. Photo: Christopher Tomlinson/The Daily Sentinel

Colorado Democratic political class has turned abruptly and loudly against Governor Jared Polis. As he approaches the end of an eight year term, Polis, knowing the likely political consequences, commuted the sentence of election denier Tina Peters.

As Mark Barabak wrote in the LA Times, Polis was criticized by fellow Democrats and many Republicans – including Peters’ prosecutor and a majority of Colorado’s election clerks. Senator Bennet, the Democratic candidate for governor to replace Polis, made it a major talking point. “It was a disqualifying decision” for me appointing Polis to the Senate.

In an understatement, I said, “He was aiming for a national profile. This makes it much more difficult.” In fact, his political career in Colorado has likely taken a blow difficult to recover from. Nationally, he was second tier, now he’s out of consideration.

LA TIMES ARTICLE:
Three wrongs don’t make a right in case of election denier and Colorado governor
THE GRAND JUNCTION DAILY SENTINEL ARTICLE:
Peters fallout: Bennet wouldn't appoint Polis to Senate as guv; Vance says Peters eligible for fund

National Dashboard: Trump Doesn’t Have the Cards

U.S. President Donald Trump reviews an honor guard with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People on May 14, 2026 in Beijing, China. | Alex Wong/Getty Images AsiaPac

RealClearPolitics’ aggregator website records President Trump’s approval at 40 percent but a more discerning aggregator, FiftyPlusOne (FPO), has Trump with a 37 point approval and a 23 point net negative (60% disapproval). Trump’s trip to China and Xi Jinping is at his weakest political moment. Domestically, Trump’s approval is, according to pollster Elliott Morris, “…sitting roughly 36.8% approval and 59.7% disapproval in the FPO polling average – a net rating of about -23, making him the most unpopular president at this point in his term in modern history, worse even than Joe Biden during the 2022 inflation panic.”

His international ratings are even worse than in the U.S. Pew Research reports that Trump receives “mostly negative ratings on a scale of low or high confidence” to do the right thing in world affairs” in 24 nations surveyed.

• Western Europe (especially low in Germany, Spain, Italy)
• Mexico (highest no confidence in list)

Neither Chinese President Xi nor Trump receives high confidence scores but in the last two years confidence in American Presidents (Joe Biden and Trump) has declined and Xi increased.

Trump, in one year, has damaged his reputation with Americans and the U.S. reputation with key allies. After Trump misplayed his cards, he now has a weak hand.

RELATED:
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National Dashboard: Trump in Retreat Feb 23, 2026
Trilogy on Trump’s Declining Approval Dec 15, 2025
Trump Approval Collapses and Nov. 4 Turns Blue Nov 20, 2025

Becerra New Democratic Frontrunner

Hilton and Steyer Fight for Second

(L-R) Democrat Matt Mahan, Democrat Xavier Becerra, Republican Chad Bianco, Republican Steve Hilton, Democrat Tom Steyer and Democrat Katie Porter during a gubernatorial debate at KRON Studios in San Francisco on Wednesday, April 22, 2026.
Pool/Jason Henry/Bloomberg/Getty Images via SFGATE

The debates are over, voting started May 4 and Xavier Becerra is the new frontrunner. In the FiftyPlusOne average he has 19% to Republican Steve Hilton’s 20%, but the latest Inside California Politics/Emerson College Polling survey he leads the field 19% over Hilton, with 17% (12% undecided).

Tom Steyer, Democrat, with his large advertising budget was also at 17% in the Emerson poll but behind Becerra by 4 points in the FPO average. Hilton and Steyer may be the main contenders for second place.

RELATED:
Swalwell Out: Becerra vs Steyer May 4, 2026
Republicans Dominate Jungle Primary for Governor Apr 2, 2026

Politics Overtake Career Plans

Royce Hall, UCLA, Westwood, Los Angeles, Los Angeles County

Trying to move on from the political tumult of the 1960’s, I finally got serious about college and restarted my studies at LA City College. I shifted from my interest in political activism to requirements for pre-med. Chemistry and biology were courses in my second and final year.

But politics intervened. On May 4, 1970, national demonstrations against the latest expansion of the Vietnam War into Cambodia and the National Guard shooting and killing of student protesters at Kent State shut down LA City College and hundreds of colleges around the country. I had lost interest in biology and was back talking about the war. We were given our grades up to that point and told to start summer vacation early. On a road trip to upstate New York for resort work, we listened to Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young’s “Four Dead in Ohio” as it played endlessly on the AM radio. It was one of the fastest released and distributed songs in history and reminded us how powerful the war’s effect was on our Baby Boomer generation.

When I returned to LA for a fall quarter at Cal State, I switched to a political science degree. A friend suggested I transfer to UCLA and I started there the winter quarter. It was a rainy 1971 winter. My first day of foreign policy class, Professor Simon Serfaty lectured in an intimidating giant hall. At the end, he suggested we all see a screening of Dr. Strangelove on campus that evening. I knew I had found a home in this fun, wildly stimulating environment.

The war was mostly fading into the background but campus Democrats were organizing, and in March of 1972 I attended a rare campus anti-war protest. There, Bill Walton, already a star of UCLA’s champion team and later to become a Hall of Fame basketball player, was loaded on a bus under arrest. Coach Wooden bailed him out quickly. McGovern was going to lose massively. (I went to the Democratic Convention in Miami – another story) and Watergate was just becoming a news story.

Graduating in 1973 cum laude and being chosen by Chancellor Young to lead the social science class at graduation, I decided to get serious about some kind of career in politics. Graduate political science departments were crowded so I took the LSAT, did well and settled to go where law and politics blended – Georgetown. I was sad leaving friends. LA had been my home since 1965 and I doubted that whatever was next would be as idyllic. Nevertheless, I was headed east to begin a new, lifelong political adventure that started at Georgetown University Law Center then shifted to Denver.

Politics and lots of serendipity drove my life.

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The Day Kennedy Died

Cronkite announcing the assassination of J.F.K., on November 22, 1963, as seen from a TV monitor. His TV career began in 1950, when he hosted a late-evening news recap.Photograph from CBS Photo Archive / Getty

It had just snowed hard and Trinidad was freezing cold as we walked up the steps of the Junior College and first heard from a student that the president had been shot. We were in town for a statewide speech contest and had just arrived in the Pueblo Catholic High School bus.

We went into the cafeteria, which had large black and white TVs up high enough to see from a distance. Walter Cronkite was on. I noticed his white button down shirt and skinny tie, but no coat. It seemed unusual in those days when we had no continuous news and anchors always wore coats.

It was near noon and just as we started to listen, he said: “Dan Rather has confirmed President Kennedy is dead.” He removed his glasses and appeared to tear up, but then put them back on and kept reading the wire stories handed to him.

We were stunned. Much later, we realized how much the entire country felt and learned that day. I wasn’t the most focused high school student, but speech was my favorite activity, and from that moment on the authority of Cronkite and the power of television were riveted into my consciousness.

Pueblo Catholic High School has been closed for many years, but it was a fortress of Catholicism and ethnic pride in our community. We were the “Shamrocks,” and the election of John Kennedy was like the elevation of a pope. We rooted for him, prayed for him and followed his travels.

Given that students had come from around the state in bad weather, they held the meet. Pueblo Catholic did well, winning various individual awards, and my partner and I won the senior debate contest, arguing before a large audience the negative side of “Resolved: Medical care should be provided to the aged.” The topic seemed remote. Few of the authorities we cited in our case believed its enactment was imminent, but Kennedy’s death made it one of President Johnson’s post-assassination achievements.

November 22, 1963, was a devastating day I will never forget.

Read New Yorker's The Legend of Walter Cronkite

Reposted from December 6, 2013

Swalwell Out: Becerra vs Steyer

(L-R) Democrat Matt Mahan, Democrat Xavier Becerra, Republican Chad Bianco, Republican Steve Hilton, Democrat Tom Steyer and Democrat Katie Porter during a gubernatorial debate at KRON Studios in San Francisco on Wednesday, April 22, 2026.
Pool/Jason Henry/Bloomberg/Getty Images via SFGATE

With the withdrawal of Eric Swalwell on April 3, a new California primary political order has been set. Most Democratic voters are dividing between billionaire Tom Steyer, who has spent as of May 1st more than $140 million on his campaign, and the new frontrunner in the some polls, Xavier Becerra, the former Attorney General and Biden cabinet officer.

Becerra appears to be gathering the most recent endorsements and has moved up from a weak 6th place on March 15 to 3rd in the April 30 FiftyPlusOne average.

Early voting starts May 4 for the June 2 primary. Steve Hilton, the leading Republican in the field, has President Trump’s endorsement. He has a good chance to make the ballot. But a Democrat is still the favorite to win in November.

RELATED:
Republicans Dominate Jungle Primary for Governor Apr 2, 2026

SCFD and Presidential Elections

Arvada Mayor Marc Williams, Aurora Mayor Steve Hogan, Greenwood Village Mayor Ron Rakowsky and Denver Mayor Michael Hancock with Popsicle at Mayors Launch SCFD GOTV, Oct. 4, 2016

The Scientific and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD) has been on the ballot in two presidential elections in this century. It won by 66 percent in 2004 and 63 percent in 2016. The SCFD had bipartisan support of regional mayors, legislators and other political and business leaders.

The following table compares the 2016 SCFD vote and the most recent results of Democratic candidate of Kamala Harris’ in 2024. The two percentage results tend to track by county except the SCFD and its non-partisan reputation and purpose did better in more Republican counties of Douglas and Jefferson and less well in the most Democratic counties of Boulder and Denver.

Examining the turnout, an additional 155,000 voted in 2024. It reflects both the difference in vote for a presidential candidate and ballot issue and the voter registration growth from 2016 to 2024.

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Art Funding in the Era of Austerity

Planning has started for the 2028 renewal of the Scientific and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD). The election will take place in an era of austerity. The Colorado economy has slowed and population growth mostly stopped. State and local governments are dealing with significant deficits. Residents are concerned about affordability and polls indicate that more than half believe the economy will get worse this year.

In the process of preparing the SCFD for legislative review and a regional vote, arts advocates and staffs weigh in on the types of changes they would like to see in the statute. Although previous elections and recent polling show the SCFD concept of regional arts funding is popular, constituent groups are being cautioned about assuming the voters are supportive of increased government-funded budgets or paying higher taxes.

Arts advocates believe they need continuation of the tax dollars but in an era of austerity that will be weighted against voters’ budgets and their priorities. In a recent regional poll, voters were asked if there are higher priorities for taxpayer dollars than even well-liked arts, museums and theaters. The population split closely on that statement. Generating high profile battles over funding could risk the public support for SCFD. (See figure below.)

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Trump’s Low Average is Anti-Trump, Not Pro-Democrat

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., joined by Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., speaks to members of the media following the Republican Senate Policy Luncheon at the U.S. Capitol on Oct. 7, 2025. Kevin Dietsch / Getty Images

President Donald Trump is now consistently more than 15 points negative among voters rating his performance, with an approval frequently below 42 percent and disapproval at or above 55 percent in RealClearPolitics conservative survey site. Viewing his position on other sites such as FiftyPlusOne show Trump 21 points negative with a 38 percent approval. The Decision Desk HQ shows a 41 percent approval, 55 percent disapproval.

However, as Trump’s approval declines, voters do not appear to be endorsing the Democrats’ brand. Seven months out, Democrats only register a 4 to 5 point advantage on the generic ballot. While that is enough to win the House, it’s not a 30 or 40 seat Democratic landslide as the 2006, 2010, and 2018 elections were.

But it may not matter. They may just vote against Trump without really embracing the Democrats, their candidates or issue positions. Historically, approval ratings this low should produce a high turnout of more angry voters at the November mid-term election. It may also demotivate non-MAGA Trump voters from participating. Republican leadership is warning of a disaster and Trump is acting nervous.

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Progressives Upset Old Guard Democrats

Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman, left, and Mayor Karen Bass.
Photos: Jason Armond and Ronaldo Bolanos / Los Angeles Times

Since the mayoral victory of Zohran Mamdani in New York, the biggest reported trend in the Democratic Party has been older incumbents facing younger, usually more “progressive” challengers. And in urban settings the challengers are often members of socialist organizations, (e.g., Democratic Socialists of America).

Two members of the new wave of urban challengers in LA and Denver are significantly younger than their incumbents/opponents, they are South Asian/African, very progressive, and good at social and digital media, especially with younger voters. They tend to be more supportive of Palestinians and represent the cutting edge of the no-more-arms-funding-for-Israel cadre, which is a growing wing of the Democratic Party.

Both candidates are long shots. However Mamdani won, Kiros won a surprise party victory in Denver and is on the ballot, as is Raman in LA, who runs second in many polls.

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Is Karen Bass in Trouble? Yes.

Then-Rep. Karen Bass at the kickoff to her campaign for mayor of Los Angeles on Oct. 16, 2021. (Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)

A Loyola Marymount University poll shows Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass losing to last-minute candidate socialist City Council member Nithya Raman.

The poll’s methodology was questionable in terms of producing an accurate snapshot of the status of the race as of March 16, but it captures the race’s fluidity. All polls conducted so far show an electorate not yet attentive, not too excited about the choices and significantly undecided. In this poll, candidates were given labels. Bass was the incumbent mayor, and a veteran legislator focused on homelessness. Raman was LA City Councilmember, progressive, focused on housing affordability. People voted for the labels as much as the names. Non-incumbent, progressive won.

Except for Bass, the field of candidates is not known and spending in the race is just beginning, so it’s early. But clearly Bass is handicapped by being a veteran establishment mayor of a city government people are not happy with. In addition, her performance during the fire was a major controversy of which she remains vulnerable. Numerous polls show 80% of LA voters would consider someone beyond Bass.

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National Dashboard: Iran Takes Trump Down

Gas prices are displayed at a Shell station in Pasadena, Calif., on March 30, 2026. Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images

President Trump’s 16 percent negative is a new low for his second term. RealClearPolitics’ aggregator website records a 41 percent approval, which is higher than most other political websites due to it including a host of right leaning polling sources whose methods consistently show partisan bias.

One month into the US/Israel Iran War has crushed Donald Trump’s opinion numbers. After a forced retreat in February from Davos and Minnesota, Trump now faces rising gas prices and a down stock market.

His economic performance declined 4 points to the negative in March – from 15 to 19 points. The war produced no rally effect and is opposed by a majority of voters. The cost of living and the economy continue to be the highest priority issues. It is likely Republicans will lose the House. The only question appears to be the size of the swing. Could the Democrats win a majority of the Senate? Still a stretch but Majority Leader Thune has to be concerned for his vulnerable seats.

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