A Washington consensus is building that Republicans will add
seats in the House and win six seats and a majority in the Senate. But, recent
elections have shown that local circumstances, namely flawed Republican
candidates, have frustrated previous predictions of Republican control of the
senate. However, this year, Republican pragmatists appear to be in ascendance.
Not every non-presidential election year is a wave election.
There have been four nationalized or wave elections in the last 40 years, and
two of those have been in the last decade.
The Nixon resignation launched the 1974 Democratic sweep,
which brought in Watergate babies, last two of whom retired this year,
California’s Henry Waxman and George Miller. Newt Gingrich and the Contract
with America led the way to the Republicans retaking the House after a 40-year absence.
Finally, in the last decade, the House has changed hands twice – once putting
Nancy Pelosi in the Speaker Chair and four short years later replacing her with
A host of metrics appear to be suggesting this election
could be highly impacted by national factors and, as of now, the wave favors
- Country is on wrong track – 62%
- Presidential approval 43%, disapproval 53%
- Generic ballot test – 2 points Democrats (tighter
if likely voters)
- Obama’s job performance on economy – 39%
- Obama’s job performance on foreign policy – 36%
- Approve ACA – 41%; it’s going well – 27%
- Enthusiastic to vote in midterm: Republicans –
70%, Democrats – 58%
Clear Politics 2014; CBS News 2014
The Denver Post Perspective
section opined on variables influencing the midterm elections
Sunday, March 30:
first stimulus package in 2009, most voters think that neither party has been
doing particularly well on economic issues,” said Floyd Ciruli, a Denver-based
Ciruli expects that this year, maybe even more than usual, the
state’s midterm elections will be a referendum on the presidency. Obama’s
approval ratings continue to plummet: In 2013, on average only 42.3 percent of
Coloradans thought the president was doing a good job, considerably lower than
the nation’s 46.5 percent average, according to Gallup polls.
“The real issue is: Will Obama and Washington hurt state
Democrats?” Ciruli asked.