Tuesday, July 23, 2024

Democrats Go into Convention in Big Hole

Vice President Harris will begin her campaign with President Biden’s political position. Sabato's Crystal Ball projects Biden with 196 electoral votes and Trump with 312. CNN John King has Trump at 320. RealClearPolitics put it 325 Trump and 213 Biden.

By Sabato's Crystal Ball analysis, the toss-up states are battleground states: Minnesota (10), Virginia (13), Maine (2), New Hampshire (4) and Nebraska (1). According to Sabato leaning Republican today are: Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (18), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6).

Hypothetical Electoral College ratingsHypothetical Electoral College ratings via The Center for Politics

Democrats need to resolve their leadership crisis quickly and prepare for the August 19 convention in Chicago. Any benefit they gain from new candidates and convention drama will have a very large electoral hole to fill.

READ: If Biden Stays: A Glimpse into a Grim Electoral Future for Democrats

Monday, July 22, 2024

Biden Faces the End

President Joe BidenUS President Joe Biden boards Air Force One as he departs Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas, Nevada, on July 17, 2024. Photo: Kent Nishimura/AFP/Getty Images

Democratic Party leadership with supporting polls finally wore down President Biden’s resistance to stepping back and letting the Party designate a new nominee. Since the debate performance his fate has been set and his defense moving in a downward spiral.

Once Adam Schiff, the next California Senator and key ally of Speaker Emeritus Nancy Pelosi, said what most party leaders believe—the President has no credible path to win and will drag down Democrats in competitive House and Senate seats—the end was within sight.

Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average drawn from RealClear Politics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallup, and other credible polls.

July 19 Poll

The timing of the announcement was a surprise but needed to be speedy to both shape the narrative and prepare for a convention only 30 days away. Of course Biden will need to explain his deliberations and decision. But the data that he and his inner circle disputed or ignored since the June 27 debate became irrefutable and included losing the popular vote and the battlegrounds, a record low approval and just recently an AP poll showing a majority of Democrats wanted him to step down.

A likely Democratic Party position will be disappointment Biden won’t be able to lead it to victory, grateful for his 2020 win and four years of service, but pleased he let it go in an orderly fashion.

Post Debate Biden Drops - Loses Battleground States 7/16/24
Trump Confident, Dems Stressed 5/15/24
One Point Presidential Race 4/4/24
Biden Narrows Gap 2/27/24
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. Colorado Win Likely Cut in Half 2/14/24
Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is it Over? 1/3/24

Wednesday, July 17, 2024

Colorado to Add Abortion Rights to Constitution

Abortion rights supporters gathered on the state Capitol steps in Denver on Tuesday after a leaked draft opinion from the U.S. Supreme Court called for overturning Roe vs. Wade.
Photo: Hart Van Denburg/CPR News

Colorado joins 4 other states as of early July that have abortion rights measures on the ballot. Also, hosting measures are Florida, Maryland, Nevada, and South Dakota. Another five states are still in the ballot signature effort, including Arizona.

Since Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022, seven states have voted to defeat abortion bans or in favor of abortion rights in statewide measures, including red states such as Kansas, Kentucky, Montana and Ohio. This track record was the electoral backdrop that motivated Donald Trump to remove any language from the GOP platform that uses the federal government to ban abortion.

This year will be the first tests of abortion rights in presidential level turnout. Will conservative Republican turnout in red states help the anti-abortion position? Democrats, needless to say, hope for high Democratic and liberal turnout, to help their congressional and other candidates.

The Colorado constitutional amendment will add abortion rights protection to the constitution beyond existing statutory rights. It will also lift a ban on state payments for abortions, passed in 1984. Although it will need 55 percent, Colorado’s track record on protection abortion rights is overwhelming, having defeated bans in 2000, 2014, and 2020. Advocates also have $4 million for a campaign.

SEE: Where Abortion Rights Will (or Could) Be on the Ballot
Louis Jacobson, The Center for Politics, July 9,2024

Tuesday, July 16, 2024

Post Debate Biden Drops - Loses Battleground States

President Joe BidenPresident Joe Biden speaks at a news conference following the NATO Summit in Washington, July 11, 2024. Photo: Susan Walsh/AP

President Biden’s poor debate performance has cost his campaign 3 points in the last two weeks. He was tied with Donald Trump in mid-June. On July 11, before this weekend’s assassination attempt Biden was facing an historic loss of the popular vote that Democrats haven’t faced since W. Bush beat John Kerry in 2004.

All six of the battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin now lean toward Trump, several by more than 4 points (Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia).

Biden must have at least 3, most likely Wisconsin (-2), Michigan (-1), and Pennsylvania (-4).

Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average drawn from RealClear Politics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallop, and other credible polls.

Ciruli Polling Review 2024 Presidential Election - July 11, 2024

Although Biden and his allies have struggled to address the age issue, the Democrats fear of a triple sweep has kept pressure on Biden to surrender the nomination. The convention is now scheduled to start August 19 with the nomination vote on Wednesday.

The primary purpose of America’s political parties is to compete for political office. Facing a potential massive loss, especially to Trump and his MAGA Republican Party, has panicked Democratic elected officials and made it difficult for Biden to unite the party and shift attention to Trump. Especially difficult is that 75 or 85 percent of voters in two post-debate polls (NY Times/WSJ) believe he is too old for the presidency, including more than half of Democrats.

Trump Confident, Dems Stressed 5/15/24
One Point Presidential Race 4/4/24
Biden Narrows Gap 2/27/24
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. Colorado Win Likely Cut in Half 2/14/24
Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is it Over? 1/3/24

Tuesday, July 9, 2024

CU Denver School of Public Affairs Hosts Fall 2024 Election Program

CU Denver School of Public AffairsCU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

Series of First Friday Panels Begins September 6

An intense 2024 campaign enters its final two months. Americans believe the future of democracy is at stake. Floyd Ciruli, pollster and Senior Fellow at the CU Denver School of Public Affairs will join a series of panels and discussions to highlight the tumultuous election environment.

The program starts September 6 with a First Friday Breakfast panel reviewing the status of the election nationally, especially as it relates to changes in control of the U.S. Senate and House. The panel will also examine Colorado’s key Congressional and legislative races, and the fate of its most contentious ballot propositions. Ciruli will moderate the panel that includes Colorado political experts.

Additional events during October will present panels on ballot propositions in the November election, the Hispanic vote and challenges for election administrators. On November 8, a post-election session will review and analyze what happened and what it will mean for future policy, especially for Colorado.

Tuesday, July 2, 2024

KOA Debate Interview

2024 Presidential Debate2024 Presidential Debate | Photo Al Jazeera

In a Friday morning post-presidential debate interview with KOA’s Marty and Jeana the topic was President Joe Biden’s poor debate performance and what the Democrats might do about it.

  • The headlines since the debate ended have been devastating –
    • “halting performance”
    • “Democrats in panic”
    • “Biden’s poor showing”
    • “Biden “babbling and hoarse”
    • “Biden’s rough night”

    Those weren’t FOX News reports.

  • In his biggest forum since the State of the Union, Biden needed to deal with the age issue (Gallup 59% voters believe he’s too old) and he failed spectacularly (51 million watched). Former President Trump just needed to stay in his lane and not repeat the poor performance in the first debate 4 years ago. He did it, even if filled with a torrent of false statements.

  • The weekend will begin days of commentary and in the next two weeks the Biden campaign already struggling in the polls, especially in battleground states, could see a dip of several points.

  • It is very difficult to change candidates. Biden has nearly 4,000 committed delegates, and even if he dropped out, an open convention would be chaotic and hold huge risks for the party.

  • It is a challenge but as of today Democrats will try to minimize the damage and push ahead (“Anyone can have a bad night,” Governor Newsom). They may shake up the staff and assemble party leaders in show of continued support and unity. But there will be considerable drama as to Biden’s fate from now to the Chicago convention, August 19.

Ciruli Blog:
Questions From Belgium Journalist Watching Our Presidential Debate for First Time Oct 12, 2012
Biden Brings Relief and New Energy to the Democrats Oct 15, 2012
Second Debate – Spin Two Oct 18, 2012

Colorado Republican Establishment Is Back

Lauren BoebertLauren Boebert | Photo Hart Van Denburg/CPR News

The victory of Republicans Hurd, Crank and Evans reflects an escape from the hold the Trump/MAGA forces have had over the party since 2020. Voices other than MAGA election deniers Dave Williams, Ron Hanks, Tina Peters, et al. are now being heard.

Although Boebert survived, she is a diminished force having had to abandon the voters in the 3rd CD and move to the 4th.

Primary Table

The vote in the 3rd and 5th Districts provides indicators of the challenges of the Republican winners. Hanks received 28 percent, which is one measure of the residual Boebert vote that Hurd must appeal to in the General Election. Boebert was predicted to win as the field filled up and she weathered the opening barrage of criticism. She received 44 percent of the vote with the remaining votes spread about the 5 opponents. She started with a host of advantages:

  • Near universal name identification
  • 10 to 1 advantage in money over any opponent
  • Identity with MAGA base
  • Endorsement of former President Trump and Speaker Johnson
  • 5 opponents

Ciruli Blog:
Don’t Write Boebert’s Obit March 20, 2024
Battle Between Republicans: MAGA vs Establishment March 25, 2024

Monday, July 1, 2024

Primary Election on 630 KHOW Radio

Jeff CrankJeff Crank | Photo: Jerilee Bennett, The Gazette

The drama of Colorado 2024 primary was not due to surprise but the definitive fashion the state electorate said no to extreme elements of both parties.

In two 630 KHOW interviews with Ryan Schuiling, the Congressional races were reviewed before and after results.

  • Most observers predicted Jeff Hurd and Jeff Crank would win their respective primaries. But the crushing win in the 5th CD against GOP State Party Chair Dave Williams was a formidable blow against the MAGA wing of the party. He endorsed candidates opposing Hurd and Crank (against party norms) and they joined ten state legislative candidates he endorsed that also lost.
  • Lauren Boebert won the six-person primary with 43 percent of the state and will no doubt go on to win the general election. Her success roughly tracks Trump’s and will be dependent upon his.
  • The moderate and more establishment wings of both parties benefited but the GOP especially now has new leaders who may restore its competitiveness after the massive losses in 2018.

Colorado Primary to See New Republican Team: Traditional vs. MAGA