Ten months into Barack Obama’s first term, the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections were a confirmation of his steady decline in the polls (from a much higher level of approval than Biden) and the Tea Party grassroots turmoil seen for months. Republicans Bob McDonnell won in Virginia and Chris Christie in New Jersey. The major observation was that they won the independent vote Obama had carried so handily in 2008.
The elections were the prelude to a disastrous 2010 midterm election, which began with Democrats losing Ted Kennedy’s vacant Massachusetts senate seat in the January replacement election due to his death. In November, their newly won (2006) House majority and Speaker Nancy Pelosi lost 64 seats in the 2010 Obama midterm. What’s the guess on the Democratic loss in 2022? If it’s more than 4 seats, they lose their majority.