Mark DiCamillo, after being the top source for public election polls for more than three decades from his perch as head of the prestigious Field Poll, still is the state’s top election pollster from his new position as director of the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS).
The Field Poll was sold and dissolved in 2016 after nearly 70 years of operation. DiCamillo shifted to Berkeley IGS and has been conducting its statewide pre-elections, most recently in a partnership with the Los Angeles Times.
DiCamillo’s final California recall poll has set the narrative for the race, referencing the increase in Democratic voters’ interest and the final surge against the recall and in favor of Governor Newsom (IGS 38% to 60% anti-recall, final average RCP 42% to 56% anti-recall). In an earlier poll, he had pointed out that the race was very close, largely because Democrats were not engaged in the election. Needless to say, the July poll sent panic in the Democratic establishment and they put their campaign in overdrive.
There is a lot of interesting data in his final September poll. For example, Orange County voters claim to be evenly divided between the pro-recall (48%) and anti-recall (51%) vs. San Diego County, which breaks anti-recall by 56 to 43 percent.
Also, Newsom is winning a majority among California’s ethnic and racial groups. Combining the polling data with election turnout data from Saturday, September 11, one can see the across-the-board failure of the pro-recall forces to attract a majority.
The pre-recall had to have a majority of White voters, and have only 43 percent according to the poll. They were hopeful for inroads among Latino and failed (31%). However, only 23 percent turned out only by last Saturday when the statewide average was 35 percent. The important and growing Asian community is 70 percent against the recall with a 35 percent turnout.
The Berkeley IGS poll and Mark did an important job informing the public and especially opinion leaders of the status and dynamics of the election.