No Restraint on Trump Entering 2026

US President Donald Trump, alongside Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following US military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3.Jim WATSON / AFP—Getty Images

In spite of a record low job approval, President Trump continues controversial daily foreign and domestic actions with little effective restraint from Congress, courts and widespread public opposition. Five guardrails were identified early in Trump’s term and he has crashed or scraped some but has done much better than expected on others.

Approval: His approval crossed into negative territory on the lunar eclipse, March 14, and it has grown more negative. It’s now at 43% in RCP and 40% in FPO, two well known aggregators. Although he’s playing defense on the economy, his weakest issue, Trump is still operating with his usual insouciance.

Inflation: Most economists predicted an uptick in inflation due to tariffs; it hasn’t happened.

Unemployment: Unemployment has started to increase. Trump believes the One Big Beautiful Bill tax cuts and lower interest rates will solve any unemployment problem.

DOW: The DOW’s 13% rise, the third double digit increase in three years, has pleased the investment class. He considers it his most important approval index.

House: Speaker Mike Johnson is in about the same terrible shape today he was at the start of his speakership. And, early predictions are he will lose the House, if closely, in 2026.

Trump begins 2026 in a weakened position but with no apparent restraints. Expect another wild year.

RELATED:

• Five Guardrails Around Trump January 24, 2025
• Will Trade War, Deportations and Funding Freeze Hit the Guardrails February 14, 2025
• Trump Scrapes the Guardrails February 28, 2025
• Guardrails Punish Trump May 2, 2025

2026 – The Era of Austerity Intensifies

Nearly 1,000 feet of welded pipe lays next to the Arkansas Valley Conduit ditch in eastern Pueblo County. (Mike Sweeney, Special to the Colorado Sun)

One year ago, in a Brighton speech on a snowy January day, I described Colorado’s new era of austerity to the Denver regions’ mayor’s association. Recognition was just beginning that Colorado was in a major population and tax revenue slowdown. Within two months, local and state government began adjusting to the fiscal crisis and announcing budget reductions, program cuts, and layoffs.

The presentation was only four days after President Trump’s inauguration. While it was obvious federal budget disruptions were coming, no one saw the depth, speed or partisanship of the Federal retrenchments.

Colorado has been placed on a Trump hit list for fiscal punishment. Funding for a major, long-promised water project in the Arkansas Valley was just vetoed. This week, $10 billion in federal health, food and child care services funding was frozen for Democratic states – Colorado, California, Illinois, New York and Minnesota. The list reflects the Administration’s claim that Democratic states likely share the Minnesota fraud problem. But more important for Colorado is the state’s lack of cooperation to free Trump supporter and election denier, Tina Peters.

The era of austerity is just beginning.

RELATED:
Opinion Today Published Era of Austerity February 27, 2025
Axios Denver Covers Era of Austerity Presentation February 18, 2025

Market Ends Up Despite the Drama and Chaos

President Donald Trump holds up a chart of reciprocal tariffs chart
Photo: Chip Somodevilla Getty Images

The dire predictions during President Trump’s first quarter, which included surging inflation and a slowing economy proved mostly wrong.

After his abrupt January start and breakneck pace, Trump shocked the political and economic establishment with DOGE cuts, Liberation Day tariffs (April 2), and mass deportations. The reaction from the investment class was a market dive that didn’t recover until June. But hard numbers reported on inflation and unemployment moved only slightly and the drama and chaos didn’t hold the markets down.

The DOW ended the year up 13 points. The third year of double-digit returns (up 12.9 points in 2024 and 13.7 in 2023). The S&P grew 16 points and the NASDAQ composite up 20, mostly driven by the AI investment boom.

Although the new year promises more foreign and domestic conflict, the market appears to be reasonably optimistic that interest rate and tax cuts and continued AI investment will provide an upbeat early year. But expect churn - four years of record market growth is possible, not probable.

RELATED:
Market Ends Up After Volatile Quarter July 3, 2025
Trump’s Agenda Could be Volatile for Market December 16, 2024

Trilogy on Trump’s Declining Approval

Lisa Benson - Tribune Content Agency

After a stronger start in January 2025 than in his first term (January 2017), Donald Trump’s presidential approval has dropped deep into negative territory, flashing danger signs for Trump and Republicans facing 2026 mid-term elections. Since Republican defeats in the November 4 election, Trump is increasingly seen as a lame duck.

A trilogy of Ciruli posts describes Trump’s most recent descent and the impact it may have on the mid-term elections:

• Will Democrats Win the House?
• Speaker Johnson Ties House to Trump
• Trump’s Mandate “Enough”

As the Trump first year ends, with his approval remaining in record negative territory of minus 10 percent in the RCP site. The polling aggregator Fifty Plus One has him down 16 points. His economic rating is a negative 15 points (RCP). The low rating accompanying the decline in consumer confidence, steady but continued inflation.

RELATED:
Trump Approval Collapses and Nov. 4 Turns Blue Nov 20, 2025

Trump’s Mandate 'Enough'

President Donald Trump signs executive orders in the Oval Office on Monday, including one to end DEI programs. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

President Trump came into office claiming his modest victory was a mandate for aggressive presidential action on most anything he said on the campaign trail. With a blizzard of executive orders (213) and other presidential actions (budget shifts, domestic troop movements), Trump has flooded the news cycle and overwhelmed much of the opposition. Finally, the public is saying enough.

The polling data shows Trump’s November collapse, which began in later October (negative 8 points Real Clear Politics), became a rout by Thanksgiving (down 13 points). Polling site Fifty Plus One has Trump down 17 points. The Decision Desk HQ has him down 14 points (Reported in Hill).

Trump won the November 2024 election with 1.5 percent over Kamala Harris (49.8% vs 48.3%). The following chart shows his approval and disapproval polling on November 4, 2025, election day, where he was down 11 points, and on November 27 as he faded into negative territory by 13 and 17 points (depending on the average). His approval has declined 8 to 10 points since his 2024 election. Voters have had enough of the mandate.

November 4 provided hard evidence to accompany his negative polling, confirming the public’s sour mood on the economy and especially inflation.

RELATED:
Trump Approval Collapses and Nov. 4 Turns Blue November 20, 2025

Speaker Johnson Ties House to Trump

House Speaker Mike Johnson of La., points to President Donald Trump after he signed his signature bill of tax breaks and spending cuts at the White House, Friday, July 4, 2025, in Washington, surrounded by members of Congress. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

The result this November 4 was similar to President Trump’s 2018 election when Republicans lost 41 seats. Trump was not on the ballot but his poor performance rating was down 13 points. This was an anti-Trump vote. Many of the groups that moved toward him in the 2024 Biden/Harris election shifted to Democratic candidates in high profile races. Also, the anti-Trump mood affected non-partisan races and initiatives. It was the prime mover in California’s Proposition 50’s sweep of the state. In Colorado, it helped turn out left-leaning voters who supported liberal and labor-endorsed city council and school board candidates.

Speaker Johnson’s weak position in terms of his majority and his ascension’s dependence on Trump reinforces his inability to get any distance from the President. He could be headed for a short, humiliating speakership.

He has diminished his office and the institution.

• Kept the House out of session during a record-long government shutdown and refused to swear in the newly elected Congresswoman from Arizona, as part of the effort to derail the Epstein files’ release (he lost the discharge petition 427 to 1).
• Ignores the repeated and systematic shift of spending authority from the House and its committees to Trump and the executive branch. In fact, cheered the Supreme Court to grant Trump power to levy tariffs without congressional approval.
• Called No Kings rally attendees Marxists and Hate-America participants, mimicking Trump’s rhetoric.
• Represents Bossier City, Louisiana, noted for its casinos and a high poverty rate. Shows little interest in constituents’ food insecurity or lack of health care.

Large Mid-Term Election Losses by Presidents Since 1960

Year	President	Party	Loss	Comment
1962	LBJ	D	47	Vietnam/Civil Rights
1974	Ford	R	48	Watergate/Pardon
1994	Clinton	D	54	Lost House/Health Care
2006	Bush	R	32	2nd Mid-Term/Iraq
2010	Obama	D	63	Health Care/Tea Party
2018	Trump	R	41	Repeal Obama Care

Source: Ciruli Associates 2025

Mid-term elections are usually considered a referendum on the administration’s performance. This will be Trump’s second mid-term, within an unusual second term. Notice W. Bush lost 32 seats in his second mid-term. Since the 1960s there have been 5 losses of more than 40 seats. Does the President Trump partnership and Speaker Johnson’s leadership suggest a landslide?

RELATED:
Pelosi: An Election Winner Retires November 19, 2025

Will Democrats Win the House?

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) departs the House floor, following the vote of the U.S. House of Representatives, which passed the bill seeking to release files related to the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 18, 2025
Photo: REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

Since November 4 election results combined with President Trump’s abysmal polling numbers and the House’s Epstein and other controversies, the viewpoint is growing among political observers and office holders that Democrats will win the House of Representatives. It may not be by the 2018 landslide of 41 seats, but it’s very likely to be by at least 20 seats.

Some observations by the pundit class:

• Trump is now at a low for his second term and similar to his 2018 November debacle. Fifty Plus One has Trump down 17 points (40% approval). Even Republican-oriented RCP has Trump out by 13 points (43% approval). (In late October 2018, he had 41% approval in Gallup, 39% in CNN).
• To win against the rigidity of the congressional field with only about 60 competitive seats out of 435, and the President’s ongoing effort to gain advantage with redistricting and voter suppression, Democrats will need to be ahead by at least 8 points. Fortunately for them, that was about the point spread their candidates beat Kamala Harris’s 2024 vote in New Jersey and Virginia.
• Democrats are currently ahead by 5 points in the RCP generic ballot, a reversal of the 3 point lead Republicans held during the first 7 months of the President’s second term.
• Pundits, of course, try to model the election and 2026 looks more like the close 2020 election Biden won than the 2024 election Trump won. Core Democratic groups appear to be solidifying against Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement and his tariffs as an economic boom.
• Finally, it’s clear increasing numbers of Republicans in more competitive seats or leaders responsible for maintaining majorities realize that showing some independence from Trump is becoming politically necessary.

Trump is becoming a lame duck earlier than expected.

RELATED:
Will Republicans Lose The House? February 6, 2025