US President Donald Trump, alongside Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following US military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3.Jim WATSON / AFP—Getty ImagesIn spite of a record low job approval, President Trump continues controversial daily foreign and domestic actions with little effective restraint from Congress, courts and widespread public opposition. Five guardrails were identified early in Trump’s term and he has crashed or scraped some but has done much better than expected on others.
Approval: His approval crossed into negative territory on the lunar eclipse, March 14, and it has grown more negative. It’s now at 43% in RCP and 40% in FPO, two well known aggregators. Although he’s playing defense on the economy, his weakest issue, Trump is still operating with his usual insouciance.
Inflation: Most economists predicted an uptick in inflation due to tariffs; it hasn’t happened.
Unemployment: Unemployment has started to increase. Trump believes the One Big Beautiful Bill tax cuts and lower interest rates will solve any unemployment problem.
DOW: The DOW’s 13% rise, the third double digit increase in three years, has pleased the investment class. He considers it his most important approval index.
House: Speaker Mike Johnson is in about the same terrible shape today he was at the start of his speakership. And, early predictions are he will lose the House, if closely, in 2026.
Trump begins 2026 in a weakened position but with no apparent restraints. Expect another wild year.
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