Five Guardrails Around Trump

Trump speaking at the Presidential Inauguration | Photo: Chip Somodevilla, Getty Images

Post-election analysts give President Donald Trump’s advantage on the economy the most credit for his win. It was largely based on a nostalgia, and for new voters his reputation as having produced a good economy during his first term.

But there was considerable amnesia about the first term’s chaos even as Democrats spent most of their campaign efforts targeted at Trump’s misbehavior, i.e., Jan. 6, impeachments, convictions, indictments, etc. As the administration starts, will chaos come back into view?

President Trump’s win was narrow but he is governing as if it is a mandate, using executive orders and broad emergency decrees. However, there are guardrails on his behavior. His approval rating of 47 percent is high for Trump but could turn down in the first 100 days. Most observers see a burst of inflation due to the disruption of tariffs, and mass deportation. If an economic slowdown begins, unemployment will go up from record low of 4.1 percent and the market could drop after a year-end 23 percent return. Finally, Republicans only have a 4 vote House majority to move legislation.

Although political and legal guardrails may be less potent today, the Five Guardrails using recognized political and economic data will start to measure the success and blowback from “shock and awe.”