The result this November 4 was similar to President Trump’s 2018 election when Republicans lost 41 seats. Trump was not on the ballot but his poor performance rating was down 13 points. This was an anti-Trump vote. Many of the groups that moved toward him in the 2024 Biden/Harris election shifted to Democratic candidates in high profile races. Also, the anti-Trump mood affected non-partisan races and initiatives. It was the prime mover in California’s Proposition 50’s sweep of the state. In Colorado, it helped turn out left-leaning voters who supported liberal and labor-endorsed city council and school board candidates.
Speaker Johnson’s weak position in terms of his majority and his ascension’s dependence on Trump reinforces his inability to get any distance from the President. He could be headed for a short, humiliating speakership.
He has diminished his office and the institution.
- Kept the House out of session during a record-long government shutdown and refused to swear in the newly elected Congresswoman from Arizona, as part of the effort to derail the Epstein files’ release (he lost the discharge petition 427 to 1).
- Ignores the repeated and systematic shift of spending authority from the House and its committees to Trump and the executive branch. In fact, cheered the Supreme Court to grant Trump power to levy tariffs without congressional approval.
- Called No Kings rally attendees Marxists and Hate-America participants, mimicking Trump’s rhetoric.
- Represents Bossier City, Louisiana, noted for its casinos and a high poverty rate. Shows little interest in constituents’ food insecurity or lack of health care.
Large Mid-Term Election Losses by Presidents Since 1960
| Year | President | Party | Loss | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1962 | LBJ | D | 47 | Vietnam/Civil Rights |
| 1974 | Ford | R | 48 | Watergate/Pardon |
| 1994 | Clinton | D | 54 | Lost House/Health Care |
| 2006 | Bush | R | 32 | 2nd Mid-Term/Iraq |
| 2010 | Obama | D | 63 | Health Care/Tea Party |
| 2018 | Trump | R | 41 | Repeal Obama Care |
Source: Ciruli Associates 2025
Mid-term elections are usually considered a referendum on the administration’s performance. This will be Trump’s second mid-term, within an unusual second term. Notice W. Bush lost 32 seats in his second mid-term. Since the 1960s there have been 5 losses of more than 40 seats. Does the President Trump partnership and Speaker Johnson’s leadership suggest a landslide?
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