Trump and Johnson in Miami, Florida. Photo: REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File PhotoHistory shows the 2026 mid-term should punish President Trump and Republicans, at least costing them their 5-seat majority in the House. In 2018, as Trump focused on caravans in Mexico and Democrats abortion, the first two years of chaos saw a 41-seat loss and brought Trump’s nemesis, Nancy Pelosi, to the speakership. Barack Obama and Joe Biden had similar experiences.
Will Trump be different in the 2026 mid-terms? The following reflects a dialogue with Denver Metro Mayors Caucus at their annual retreat:
- Trump has been here before and realizes the danger of 2026. Since the election tends to be a referendum on Presidential performance, he could adjust the pace and volume of disruption.
- Anticipating the controversial aspect of his agenda, Trump picked cabinet officers who are both loyal and proven communicators, especially on Fox News and alternative venues. All the disruption will be better defended than in the first term.
- The “shock and awe” and “Flood the Zone” strategies have fragmented and muted most opposition. The Democratic counter attack has yet to gain traction.
- Democrats are still struggling with what happened. In 2016, a close election looked like an anomaly and Trump’s first two years of chaos was great campaign material. But his 2024 win, while historically close, left no doubt he had made inroads into the Democratic coalition and was dominating the top issues of economy, immigration and cultural overreach.
But it is very early, and Trump’s policies are highly disruptive. His approval, the market, living cost, and unemployment could move in a negative direction.
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