Elon Musk took center stage at President Donald Trump's first Cabinet meeting.Photo: USA Today
A month after the inauguration, Donald Trump is starting to scrape the guardrails I identified on January 24 related to public approval, inflation, the Dow, and the House majority.
Polling
The polling average, steady at 49 percent approval, hasn’t moved much, but some recent polls have reported approvals in the mid-40’s and disapproval has climbed from 43 percent on January 31 to 48 percent today, signaling the surge of White House news may be generating a negative reaction.
Inflation Increased
The December reported inflation rate was 2.9% and 3.0% in January, not a big change but moving in the wrong direction. It was interpreted, including by the Fed, as reason to hold interest rates steady and express caution concerning reductions in 2025. Trump was defensive and said it was Joe Biden’s fault.
Market Down
The markets have been nervous since Trump began speaking so aggressively about tariffs and mass deportations in January, actions which were seen as disruptive and likely inflationary. The Dow was 43,487 on the January 20 inauguration, jumped up to 44,544 at the end of January, and is 43,239 today(2-27-25), below the inaugural Dow average and volatile in recent days. The mass of policy and political disruption is generating caution.
Congress Struggles with Budget
The government avoided a possible shutdown by one vote in the House. Now, a long process is required to pass a reconciliation bill through both chambers. It will be difficult.
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