Will Democrats Win the House?

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) departs the House floor
Photo: REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

Since November 4 election results combined with President Trump’s abysmal polling numbers and the House’s Epstein and other controversies, the viewpoint is growing among political observers and office holders that Democrats will win the House of Representatives. It may not be by the 2018 landslide of 41 seats, but it’s very likely to be by at least 20 seats.

Some observations by the pundit class:

• Trump is now at a low for his second term and similar to his 2018 November debacle. Fifty Plus One has Trump down 17 points (40% approval). Even Republican-oriented RCP has Trump out by 13 points (43% approval). (In late October 2018, he had 41% approval in Gallup, 39% in CNN).
• To win against the rigidity of the congressional field with only about 60 competitive seats out of 435, and the President’s ongoing effort to gain advantage with redistricting and voter suppression, Democrats will need to be ahead by at least 8 points. Fortunately for them, that was about the point spread their candidates beat Kamala Harris’s 2024 vote in New Jersey and Virginia.
• Democrats are currently ahead by 5 points in the RCP generic ballot, a reversal of the 3 point lead Republicans held during the first 7 months of the President’s second term.
• Pundits, of course, try to model the election and 2026 looks more like the close 2020 election Biden won than the 2024 election Trump won. Core Democratic groups appear to be solidifying against Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement and his tariffs as an economic boom.
• Finally, it’s clear increasing numbers of Republicans in more competitive seats or leaders responsible for maintaining majorities realize that showing some independence from Trump is becoming politically necessary.

Trump is becoming a lame duck earlier than expected.

RELATED:
Will Republicans Lose The House? February 6, 2025