Market Ends Up After Volatile Quarter

President Donald Trump holds up a chart of reciprocal tariffs chart
Photo: Chip Somodevilla Getty Images

Five months into the Trump administration has been surprisingly hospitable for the key stock indexes. After two years of more than double digit gains, mid-year they were showing some final life, surging the last week of June. The Dow was up 4 points at the end of the quarter (S&P and NAZ both up 6). Given the months of volatility, most investors were thankful indexes were at least off their lows.

On April 2, when President Trump announced “Liberation Day” for his tariff strategy, markets began a sell-off that lasted a month (Dow down 10, S&P down 12). Seven days later on April 9, after the market plunge, he paused the bulk of the tariffs except China, but it took an announced China trade agreement in early May to get indexes back to the year end.

The market’s current optimism is based on the apparent lack of notable effect from tariffs, although many are about to reapply, the economic slowdown that is yet to appear, a coming tax cut from the Big Beautiful Bill, and a calmer Middle East. But expect continued volatility the next six months. There is still significant domestic and foreign political churn.

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