Monday, September 26, 2016

Super Bowl of Debates and Tie Game

Record debate viewers will be watching a tied race (possibly 100 million; 20 million more than all-time record of 80 million, Reagan vs. Carter 1980). The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll shows the race 46 percent Clinton, 44 percent Trump and 6 percent for third-party candidates (out of field, Sept. 22).

Out of 13 states being tracked, Trump now is winning 7 and Clinton 6 by RealClearPolitics count. Silver’s 538 forecast has Clinton winning 283 electoral votes, but RealClearPolitics only gives 272 (needed 270). Colorado is now 2 points, a drop of 8 points since mid-August.

In the latest Quinnipiac Colorado survey, Clinton is winning 7 percent of Republicans while losing 2 percent to Trump. Eight percent of Republicans are backing Gary Johnson and 3 percent of Democrats.

The race is 2 points between the frontrunners because Trump is beating Clinton by 9 points among independents. Johnson and Jill Stein are also gathering in 21 percent of independents.