Thursday, September 8, 2016

Coffman vs. Carroll – 6th CD

It was assumed the Sixth Congressional District race was going to be competitive, and Congressman Mike Coffman was slated to win it. But presidential-level turnout and Donald Trump make this one of the most competitive House races in the country. It’s also one of the most expensive. Nancy Pelosi is raising money for Democrat Morgan Carroll, along with the full panoply of Democratic Party interest groups. And, they are being met by Americans for Prosperity and Paul Ryan’s Republican House campaign committee. More than three million is reported, with an edge for Coffman.

The key factors are:
  • Presidential-level turnout in very competitive district will help Democrats. Expect at least 70,000 more voters over 2014. Barack Obama carried the district in 2012 by five points, and Democrats almost won it with an unknown candidate.
  • Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton may produce fewer Republican ticket-splitters. If Clinton wins by as much or more than Obama in 2012, Coffman may be in deep trouble.
  • This could be a good year for women candidates with Clinton carrying women by a wide margin (all women 53% to 34% Trump, white women 53% to 34% Trump, last Quinnipiac poll). Morgan Carroll is a high-profile woman politician who has won several local elections.
As stated to Rachel Sapin in the Aurora Sentinel (8-31-16):
Denver Political Analyst Floyd Ciruli said social issues surrounding women have mostly been in the background of this year’s presidential and congressional campaigns, but that doesn’t mean Coffman isn’t feeling the backlash of running on the same ticket as Donald Trump.
“Hillary Clinton is winning women voters, including white women voters much more than normal,” Ciruli said. “Partially it’s a reflection of a woman running for president, but more, it’s a reflection of Trump’s problems.
Read Aurora Sentinel: Coffman outpaces Carroll again in quarterly CD6 fundraising, holds big cash lead

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