Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Election Final Forecast – Clinton Wins Close

The final polling averages have Hillary Clinton winning by at least 3 points and about 300 electoral votes (270 needed for election).

That result would be below the Barack Obama victory of 332 and 4 percent in 2012. But, it was expected that Clinton would have difficulty reassembling the Obama coalition in the face of a voter headwind of desired change. Clinton simply ran a stronger campaign against a candidate who injured himself in the primaries and never recovered. Donald Trump won his nomination alienating establishment and mainstream Republicans, along with major groups of voters, particularly minorities, who are key in a number of swing states.

The final polls aggregated by 538, Huffington Post and RealClearPolitics show a spread from 3 to 6 percent.

The forecasts agree with the aggregators that Clinton wins since near the end of a campaign they are driven mostly by polls. It is projected she will win from near certainty at Princeton Election Consortium (99%) and Huffington Post (98%) to 84 percent at the New York Times Upshot to a low of 72 percent at 538.

Colorado is also considered a lock for Clinton, with about a 2 to 5 percent spread.

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