Tuesday, July 19, 2016

NBC/WSJ Claims Clinton Up 8 Points in Colorado

Another Colorado poll has weighed in, confirming Hillary Clinton’s statewide lead in a head-to-head with Donald Trump. Joining four recent Colorado polls, she has an eight point lead, giving her frontrunner status. The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll was conducted with 779 voters post the Comey e-mail decision on July 5, 2016.

When Gary Johnson, libertarian, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are offered in a question, 13 percent of voters select Johnson and 4 percent Stein, reducing both main party candidates, but maintaining the spread (8 points 2-party split/6 points with 4 candidates).

The Buzz’s Colorado forecast has Clinton up by 8 percent. Colorado’s 9 electorates at the start of the two national conventions appear to lean Democratic.

A couple of factors appear to be helping Clinton in Colorado in spite of national polls showing the race neck-to-neck.
  • Clinton’s campaign has been organized for months. She has TV up. The Hispanic community is busy registering to vote.
  • The Republican Party is still divided post primary, with anti-Trump forces in control. Trump himself has been antagonistic to the local party and, in fact, used it as a foil in his primary campaign.
Of course, Colorado could be slipping to the left as many national pundits suggest based on shifting demographics and voting behavior during the last decade. But whatever the source of the current polling spread, it is the states and their polls that are far more important than the national polls in deciding who wins the presidency.

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