Friday, July 15, 2016

Convention Bounce – They Want Unity

The most important series of polls will begin on August 1. They will measure the Republican and Democratic parties’ respective convention bounces and mark the official start of the 2016 campaign.

Possibly the most important goal of both parties from their conventions is unity. Can Donald Trump show himself as a party healer and leader while still maintaining his unpredictability and political incorrectness? Does Bernie Sanders’s endorsement and gives on the platform help Hillary Clinton attract the activist left and Sanders’s Millennials?
The Colorado Convention Center

Both candidates face a challenge in reaching the typical 90 percent support received from respective partisans near the end of campaigning. In a recent NBC Colorado poll, Trump had 79 percent support from fellow Republicans. Clinton’s numbers in a host of polls are in the low-to mid-eighties.

The current advantage Clinton has in polling (4% in RealClearPolitics average) is largely a product of her intraparty support, which is stronger than his. Results vary by polls, but generally Clinton is 5 points or more stronger among Democrats than Trump is among Republicans. For example, in the latest Fox Colorado poll, 81 percent of Democrats were voting for Clinton, but only 75 percent of Republicans support Trump.

No comments: