Friday, May 22, 2015

Senate and Presidential Races Tied Together

President Obama’s national approval rating has improved slightly since last fall’s election when it stood at 42 percent and contributed to the November across-the-board Democratic debacle, from U.S. Senators and governors to state houses.

Today, the President’s rating is 45 percent. Generally, along with the state of the economy, the President’s approval rating is the most significant factor in the election of a Democratic successor; that is, Hillary Clinton.

Forty-five percent is considered below the political “Mendoza line” as described by Amy Walters in the May 13, 2015 Cook Report. “The magic number for Obama – and ultimately Hillary’s chances – is somewhere around 47 percent.” Obama’s current approval is just on the cusp of being deadly.

Using Quinnipiac polling, the Cook Report shows that in several swing states, Obama is well below his 45 percent national approval average.

The other political trend that has been strengthened in recent years is the fact U.S. Senate races are more tied to the presidential race than in the past. The fate of Senator Bennet will be significantly affected by President Obama’s approval rating and the quality of Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

Thursday, May 21, 2015

Messina Did It

Out of the dozen or so theories as to why the British pollsters crashed and burned in the May 7th parliamentary election is that the culprit is the marriage of intense polling (poll-of-polls) and the subsequent media narrative with American-style stealth targeted big data campaigns, the kind brilliantly ran by Jim Messina, Mr. Obama’s 2012 campaign manager, who helped direct Prime Minister David Cameron’s Conservatives.
Read more about the British polling debacle in the Denver Post, May 16, 2015: Ciruli: Election polls face a crisis of confidence. The report was reprinted in the website, with a host of other analyses of problems with British polls.

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Does Stephanopoulos Join Williams?

George Stephanopoulos has damaged ABC News just as it begins its 2016 presidential coverage.
Like Brian Williams, he has possibly ended his career as the lead network news anchor.

Giving money to the Clinton Foundation and participating in the Clinton Global Initiative was a mistake that will be very hard to recover from as the 2106 presidential election begins. ABC News needs to have the full confidence of its audience and at least the acquiesce of the Republican Party, both of which are in doubt now.

Even if the charitable giving could be ignored, failing to disclose it while grilling “Clinton Cash” author Peter Schweizer, was a serious violation of journalistic ethics and good judgment. But Stephanopoulos was also active with the CGI, which is essentially a global networking apparatus for the Clintons and largely lets the American and worldwide left schmooze while also trying to link up with more conservative leaders who like to be in the political action and promote their charitable interests.

Timing is everything and Stephanopoulos’ could not have been worse.

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Colorado in Center of Rocky Mountain West Presidential Politics

Beginning with Bill Clinton’s election in 1992, Colorado is the Mountain West state that has shifted positions the most between the two parties. New Mexico is the most Democratic-leaning western state voting Democratic tickets all six times.

The four western states the most dependably Republican are Alaska, Idaho, Utah and Wyoming, never missing a chance to vote for a Republican nominee. Colorado, with its three Democratic votes – Bill Clinton in 1992 and Barack Obama twice (2008 and 2012) – and Republican in the other three elections (Dole 1996 and G.W. Bush 2000 and 2004), will be the most fought over in the 2016 election.

Nevada is our closest neighbor in terms of being competitive, but leaning Democratic. It gave Clinton two narrow wins in the 1990s, supported Bush twice, and then provided big wins for Obama in 2008 (12 points) and 2012 (6 points).

Colorado voters can expect to see a lot of TV advertising in 2016.

Monday, May 18, 2015

Preview the Debate – DU Presentation: Hill and Ciruli

The Korbel School of International Studies will present dean and former ambassador, Chris Hill, and Floyd Ciruli, director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, in a preview of the upcoming presidential debates on foreign policy.

The discussion will be moderated by 9-News political reporter, Brandon Rittiman, the recent winner of the prestigious Walker Cronkite Award for Excellence in TV Political Journalism.

Brandon Rittiman and Kyle Clark Should Moderate Republican Debates

The director of the Norman Lear Center at USC just wrote stout defense of local TV news for the value of its political coverage and cited 9-News Brandon Rittiman and Kyle Clark for their 2014 debate coverage and truth tests. Read the release of Marty Kaplan on the award, local news, and Brandon and Kyle.

See: These Two Dudes in Denver Should Moderate All the Debates

Friday, May 15, 2015

Another Polling Surprise – Poland

The president of Poland was expected to win re-election without a runoff, but instead, he came in second behind a conservative challenger and former member of his own center-right party. President Bronislaw Komorowski won 32.2 percent of the vote against further right candidate, Andrzej Duda.

The runoff election is in two weeks.

Polls had shown the President in the lead and likely to win outright with a majority of the vote. And, although his numbers had slipped the last month, he remained ahead. May polls showed Duda with an average of 27 percent support and in second place by an average of 9 points behind Komorowski, whose polling support averaged 38 percent during May.

Duda, a relatively unknown European Parliament member, represents the Law and Justice Party, the country’s more anti-EU, anti-German party and critical of Russia. Komorowski, a well-respected communist dissident, represents the Civic Platform Party, which has been in power eight years.

In spite of a fast growing economy, a substantial protest vote emerged, even beyond the Duda vote. A former rock musician ran an anti-establishment campaign advocating changing the voting system from party-controlled to candidate centered.

Left wing parties failed to register with voters.

Turnout was exceptionally low, less than half the electorate (48.8%).

See Wall Street Journal: Opposition candidate Andrzej Duda wins first round of Poland presidential elections