Wednesday, August 24, 2016

America is Great

Congratulations to all the world athletes who participated in the 2016 Rio Olympics. America is already great. Its athletes beat the state sponsored Olympic machine of China by 50 medals and Mr. Putin’s decimated team due to corruption by more than two-to-one.


Ciruli Named to Denver Press Club Hall of Fame

The Denver Press Club Hall of Fame will induct me at a Press Club event September 9, 2016.  Below is a reprint of a DU Newsroom news release.

DENVER—August 15, 2016—Political pollster and analyst Floyd Ciruli will be inducted into the Denver Press Club's Hall of Fame at a September 9th banquet. Mr. Ciruli heads a Denver-based research and consulting firm, Ciruli Associates, and has provided political commentary, analysis and polling for the past 35 years for both local and national media outlets. He hosts Colorado's leading blog for politics and trends with more than 4,500 followers at www.fciruli.blogspot.com.

Mr. Ciruli has served as a regular commentator for a number of media outlets, including on-air election night coverage for 9KUSA beginning with the 1988 Denver International Airport election. He also conducted election polling for several media outlets, and was cited as one of the country's most accurate pollsters on Nate Silver's 538 website. In addition, he regularly writes guest editorials on political topics.

In 2014, he helped create the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver, where he serves as director and teaches graduate courses in public opinion and foreign policy. He is past-president of the Pacific Chapter of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) and an active AAPOR member. Mr. Ciruli also is past-president of the Georgetown Law Alumni Board.

He has led several local and statewide ballot initiative campaigns, including the Denver metro Scientific & Cultural Facilities District (SCFD) from its inception in 1988, and each SCFD renewal – including on the upcoming 2016 ballot. He also led the Great Outdoors Colorado campaign, two successful bond issue campaigns for the Denver Public Library, and others.

A native of Pueblo, Colorado, Mr. Ciruli received a Bachelor's degree from the University of California Los Angeles, and a law degree from Georgetown University.

Founded in 1964, the Josef Korbel School of International Studies is one of the world's leading schools for the study of international relations. The School offers degree programs in international affairs and public policy and is named in honor of its founder and first dean, Josef Korbel. Follow the Korbel School on Facebook and Twitter.

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Is the Race Over?

One of the best questions at the Arvada Chamber of Commerce Leadership Breakfast was could the debates change this race? Clinton leads by 5 points in national polls and 11 points in Colorado.

Mitt Romney and Barack Obama at first
debate in Denver in 2012
Photo: US News
Possibly, but the general rule is that debates don’t change a race. However, this year doesn’t follow the rules very well. Recall that Mitt Romney beat Barack Obama four years ago in the early October debate here in Denver. But Obama went on to win the race by 5 points, largely because his strength in battlegrounds states was unshaken even while his national polling numbers slipped for a time due to the debate.

There are several reasons to be extra cautious about calling the race this year. People remain very unhappy about the direction of the country, they desire some amount of change, they’re worried about the future for their children and neither candidate is well thought of. In addition, as much of July demonstrated, this is an election highly effected by outside events, such as the Dallas shooting, the Nice terror, the Russian hacking, and unforced errors like the Comey testimony and the attack on the Khans.

The summer polls are still in pre-season. The first polls after Labor Day will be most important. If Clinton is ahead beyond the margin of error at that point after all the pollsters tighten their screen techniques to capture most likely voters, Trump is in trouble.

The first debate in late September is likely to have record viewership. Trump may need it to change the direction of the race. If Clinton is still in the lead, she will just need to demonstrate competence and confidence. She wins if it’s a draw.

Arvada Chamber of Commerce Leadership Breakfast, Aug. 19, 2016
Photo: Arvada Chamber


Monday, August 22, 2016

Colorado Now Considered Part of Clinton’s 270 Electoral Votes

Hillary Clinton is now banking Colorado in her count to 270 electoral votes. The latest Quinnipiac poll shows Clinton beating Donald Trump by 10 points head-to-head and by 8 points in a four-way race with Gary Johnson, the Libertarian, and Jill Stein, the Green candidate.

In the head-to-head race, which is most useful in comparing internal differences, she’s consolidated Democrats (93% compared to Trump’s 86%) and is surprisingly winning men (45% to 43% Trump). White men she loses 40 percent to 47 percent to Trump, but she is winning 10 percent of Republican women.

As noted by many analyses, she has a huge margin among White women (19 points), while he has a modest lead among White men (7 points). Her lead among college educated voters of 25 points is a new phenomenon, suggesting Trump has lost the old base of the Republican Party. When added with a 64 percent to 29 percent advantage among minorities, her current position is formidable.

Friday, August 19, 2016

Colorado Likes Independent Candidates

Colorado tends to be more supportive of independent candidates. This is confirmed in the latest Quinnipiac poll in Colorado, which shows Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, with 16 percent, nearly double his national average. If Colorado decided who got on the debate stage, Johnson would make it.

Johnson ties Donald Trump among self-declared independent voters (Johnson 24%, Trump 25%). He also does well with Millennial voters, only 5 points behind Hillary Clinton (Johnson 29%, Clinton 34%).

Gary Johnson

Glenn Makes No Progress Since Nomination

Republican Senate candidate, Darryl Glenn, is still struggling to unite his own party nearly two months after his primary nomination and less than two weeks before Labor Day and the start of the political session.

The latest Quinnipiac poll shows incumbent Michael Bennet winning 54 percent to Glenn’s 38 percent. Glenn receives only 84 percent of identified Republicans whereas Bennet has the support of 96 percent of Democrats. Bennet is also winning independents by 22 points.

Tuesday, August 16, 2016

The Forecasts Begin

Floyd Ciruli at Arvada Chamber of Commerce breakfast on Friday, August 19.