Monday, March 18, 2024

Colorado Election Scan on Super Tuesday

Colorado Congressional Districts, 118th CongressTwotwofourtysix, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

The following are observations from Colorado opinion leaders after a series of discussions during the week of the Super Tuesday primary election (March 7):

1) Boebert: She wins June 25 primary, Trump endorsement reinforces her advantage: money, multiple candidate field in strongly Trump leaning 4th CD. [Election now chaotic with Buck’s early retirement.]
2) Hurd: Fundraising and campaigning should win primary and the general for Hurd. Even with millions, Fritch has problem without Boebert. Trump wins district, moderate Republicans and MAGA go with Hurd. But lots of unaffiliated voters. Race should be a fight.
3) Fifth CD: Super denier Williams could win and become Colorado’s “Matt Gaetz.” Crank gets establishment support but Williams gets MAGA who have been winning local party contests. Could unaffiliated voters make a difference for Crank? [Crank just received Johnson endorsement. Williams, Trump.]
4) Caraveo She could be in trouble as new congressperson in year Biden does poorly but she has money and incumbency and large base of Hispanic voters. Challenger is inexperienced state legislator, but she is low key and border issue could help him.
5) Trump: Polling be damned. Many Colorado observers believe Trump will lose general election. Haley shows segment of Republicans don’t buy his return. She could get upwards of 40% of Colorado Super Tuesday votes. (She got 33%.)
6) Biden: Colorado Dems allowed a protest with “uncommitted” younger voters angry about Gaza, Biden’s age, and vulnerability (if he should step back), etc. (Uncommitted got 9%.) He wins Colorado but by half of his 2020 vote (14% in 2020).

Thursday, March 14, 2024

Porter’s Other Problems: Money, a Celebrity Republican, Trump and Low Turnout

Katie Porter Katie Porter (D-CA) March 5, 2024. Photo by Jeff Gritchen, Orange County Register/SCNG

Katie Porter’s problem was more than Adam Schiff’s campaign advertising. Her weak third place finish was foreshadowed, early in the race, with Adam Schiff’s superior fundraising and the entrance of a celebrity Republican last fall. But equally damaging was the emergence of Donald Trump and Joe Biden as two incredibly unpopular presidential nominees. Steve Garvey clearly was the Republican who could gather most of the Republican vote and turnout was depressed by the boring presidential contest dominated by unpopular candidates. Porter’s strategy depended on young voters turning out. They didn’t. Also, Schiff’s image as the Trump antagonist was greatly aided by the dominance of Trump since the Iowa and New Hampshire nominating events.

California Senate Race

Porter’s problems were:

  • Schiff fundraising puts him on TV, whereas Porter was mostly online, hoping for the youth vote.
  • Trump emerges as Republican nominee. Boring presidential race dampens turnout, especially among youth.
  • Garvey, a celebrity Republican, enters a weak field of Republicans.
  • Porter goes on the attack of candidates (Schiff) as tools of big corporations before any Schiff ads related to attacking Garvey were placed.
  • Schiff takes on Garvey as the preferred opponent, after seeing his weak performance in the first debate, raised Garvey’s visibility.

RELATED:
Schiff, Garvey Have Lead as Porter Stalls (February 26, 2024)

Wednesday, March 13, 2024

Metro Denver Sales Tax Flattens Out

Map

The seven county Denver Metro sales tax revenue increases of recent years (2020 was COVID year) have flattened out.

Sales Tax Revenue Table

Population growth declined dramatically except for Douglas County over the last census period (2020 July to 2023 July) after more than a decade of steady increase. What other factors may be impacting regional sales tax revenue have not been reported yet? This may be a return to a more common average of 3 to 4 percent annual increase.

RELATED:
Sales Tax Slowdown (October 20, 2023)

Thursday, February 29, 2024

Bull Market Continues to Run

The year-end rally that produced a nearly 14 percent increase in the DOW has continued. And the DOW is still the laggard. Its 3.8 percent improvement in the first two months of the year was exceeded by the tech heavy NAS (6.6%, 43% in 2023) and the broader S&P (6.7%, 24% in 2023). All three indexes hit new highs this year.

Only a handful of stocks have been the primary movers in this market. The so-called Magnificent Seven: Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Nvidia, Meta Platform and Tesla.

The Dow End-of-Year

Although there continues to be uncertainty related to interest rates (now about 5%), inflation (above 3%) and a possible economic slowdown in the remainder of the year, it still appears to be a good investment market. Rates are likely to come down slower than expected in the next 10 months and inflation appears subdued, if not reversing. Also, with near full employment, wage gains, and steady consumer spending, fear of a recession has receded.

RELATED
Year End Rally Continues? (January 3, 2024)

Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Biden Narrows Gap

In the last month, President Biden has narrowed his voter gap with former President Trump from 4 points to 2 points but he is still behind. (Down 48% to 44% on January 30 to 46% to 44% on February 27) As the month ended, Trump was able to revel in the South Carolina win and his designation as the presumptive nominee.

Also, national polls show Biden is still losing more support to third-party candidates than Trump. He’s behind Trump 4 points when third-party candidates are included (RFK receives 14%). (See figure below)

The Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallop, and other credible polls.

Ciruli Polling Review
2024 Presidential Election - February 27, 2024

Democrats mostly remain optimistic if not confident that the race is winnable. Forty percent of South Carolina Republicans voted for Nikki Haley, preferring an alternative to Trump.

The economy is improving, Trump induced chaos in the House, the backlash from his provocative talk about NATO and various legal skirmishes were big February news, helping Biden and Haley and keeping Trump on the defensive.

RELATED:
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. (February 14, 2024)

Monday, February 26, 2024

Schiff, Garvey Have Lead as Porter Stalls

Porter and GarveyDemocratic U.S. Rep. Katie Porter and Republican Steve Garvey, Jan. 22, 2024.
Photo by Damian Dovarganes, AP Photo

After two debates and millions in advertising spending, the California Senate race is taking final shape with Democratic Congressperson Adam Schiff in a growing lead at 28 percent followed by Republican Steve Garvey (22%). Now stalled in third place in the latest Emerson College poll is Democratic Congressperson Katie Porter at 16 percent. A PPIC poll also conducted mid-month has Schiff ahead with Porter and Garvey tied for second place.

In the final debate (February 20), Porter launched an all-out attack on Schiff recognizing her vulnerable position two weeks out from the March 5 primary. She is targeting younger voters, the most difficult to turn out, especially in what is likely a lower turnout primary (a lack of presidential contest).

California Senate Race

RELATED:
Porter Drops to Third, Republican Garvey in Second (January 2, 2024)
Schiff Starts Ahead for Final Senate Run (December 18, 2023)

Wednesday, February 21, 2024

Biden’s Colorado Win Cut in Half

Nationally, the presidential election is nearly tied (Biden 44% to Trump 45%) but two recent statewide Colorado surveys have President Joe Biden ahead of former President Donald Trump by about half (8 points) his 2020 election win of 14 points (55% to 42%). Trump is still toxic in the state with a negative 26 percent favorability rating compared to Biden’s negative 12 approval.

CO State Polls

Generally it's good news for Colorado Democrats. In more competitive congressional and legislative districts, Biden appears to be not much help but also not have much negative effect. Republicans must still deal with Trump, who will probably carry the congressional districts he won in 2020 but be a burden in swing districts.