Monday, August 21, 2017

The Only People Left

“One by one, our old friends are gone. Death – natural or not – prison-deported.” (Johnny Ola, The Godfather Part II, 1974)
The only people left from the team pictured on January 28, 2017 are the two that can’t be fired.

Will Mr. Bannon’s removal make much of a difference? It’s better for General Kelly and it lowers internal conflict for the national security and economic and domestic policy teams, but Donald. J. Trump is still the master of provoking and improv. Expect more.

See The Buzz:
Bannon about to join Flynn?

Friday, August 18, 2017

Impeachment: How It Will Work

Donald Trump likes to live on the edge. He still has his base, but the broad reach of the country’s leadership community, from small towns to the big cities, are beginning to believe that, regardless of their preferences for many of his policies, Trump is not suited to the job. His failure to move the big agenda, combined with the constant controversies, mostly self-created, highlight his greatest weakness – the character issue.

As opposed to a parliamentary system where if a leader loses his or her majority, he must stand down. America’s elections are regularly scheduled. But if Republicans lose their House majority, impeachment is possible. Most likely, the Democratic Party would prefer to just end his term at four years in 2020, but his actions or political pressure may start the process.

A bill of impeachment, an indictment, would start in the House and most likely use whatever investigative materials had been gathered up to that point. The Judiciary Committee is the usual committee of jurisdiction (today, the ranking Democrat is Rep. John Conyers of Michigan) and would likely conduct any final investigations and hold public hearings.

A majority vote of those present and voting can get the impeachment bill out of the committee and then through the House. The Senate, of course, is Trump’s firewall. It is unlikely Democrats will take control in 2018, and even if they did, it requires a two-thirds majority, or 67 votes, to convict. As of today, it seems unlikely a Barry Goldwater scene will ensue as in 1974 when he led a Republican delegation to the White House to tell President Nixon he didn’t believe there were 15 Republican votes to stop a conviction in the Senate. It was assumed the House would vote to indict. Goldwater also made the case that the country should not have to go through the ordeal of trial and conviction.

If this scenario played out today, the House action would start in 2019, just as both parties start the prep for the 2020 general election, a trial could follow in the Senate. Would Republicans move to dump Trump? Could they succeed or does his base hold? Will he have 34 Senate votes in two years?

This seems like a far-fetched scenario today, but it makes for interesting speculations.

Thursday, August 17, 2017

The Western Battleground

Republican control of the U.S. Senate could be up for grabs in the West. Arizona Senator Jeff Flake, the scourge of Donald Trump, and Nevada Senator Dean Heller, the waiving vote on health care (he finally voted yes), are in the two most vulnerable Republican seats in the country. Both Flake and Heller face possible primaries from Trump supporters and very tough re-elections in states Trump just barely won (Arizona) or lost to Hillary Clinton (Nevada).

Democrats have vulnerabilities in Montana trying to re-elect Senator Jon Tester in a state Trump won by 21 points and hanging on to North Dakota is first-term Democrat Heidi Heitkamp. She won with only a 2,900-vote margin while Trump took the state with 123,000 votes.

Democrats are hoping to win both Republican seats and hold their two, but winning the Senate will be difficult. But for a Republican disaster due to Trump’s 38 percent and declining approval rating, Democrats should lose, not pick up ground in 2018 Senate elections because they are defending so many seats, several of which, like Tester and Heitkamp, are in Trump country (e.g., Indiana, Missouri and West Virginia).

Polling Is Doubling Down

The nation’s top media organizations are not pulling back on polling. They are intensifying their efforts with more polling, new methods and more analysis.

The Donald Trump presidency, the rise of populism, the surge of nationalism, the realignment of parties and collapse of the political center has increased public interest and viewers and subscribers. 

Pollsters are making some shifts in vendors and adding new methods. Their general goal is to gather more data with more varied methods – phone (landline and cell), online, probability, non-probability. The answer to the charge of “fake polls” is not less, but better and more. As CBS polling director Anthony Salvanto said, “There’s an interest in what people are thinking. We believe people want to understand how public opinion is shifting in these times.” Hang on, 2017 and 2018 will be very big polling years.

Read Politico: News outlets aim to bolster polling amid charges of “fake news”

Wednesday, August 16, 2017

Trump Works His Base

Both on purpose, but also as a natural product of his viewpoint, Donald Trump works his base in the Republican Party and alt-right using politically incorrect and anti-establishment rhetoric every day. He provides constant fuel for his partisan and populist supporters.

On average, Trump is holding about two-fifths of the public’s approval. Triangulating recent polls (Fox, CNN and Gallup), he receives about 85 to 80 percent of Republicans, 35 to 30 percent of self-identified independents and less than 10 percent of Democrats. The following chart shows where he receives his 40 percent of support.

When he has slipped below 40 percent in the average, and he most recently slid to 38 percent in RealClearPolitics.com, it is mostly a reflection of small fall-offs (2 to 3 points) in each group. In addition, the percentage of Republicans has fallen in many surveys, with corresponding increases in Democrats and Independent identifiers.

A month into Trump’s presidency, he had 88 percent of Republicans, 36 percent of Independents, and for a short time, 10 percent of Democrats. Today, with his 38 percent, he has 82 percent of Republicans, 30 percent of Independents and only 7 percent of Democrats.

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Seattle, Washington, One of the Premier Cities in the West, has Worked for Nearly a Decade to Create a Cultural Tax District Modeled After Denver’s Scientific and Cultural Facilities District

Unfortunately, voters in King County, home of Seattle, just rejected the multi-year effort to create a tenth of a cent cultural taxing district. The election, held August 1, lost by 2 percentage points, 51 percent to 49 percent, 9,000 votes out of 400,000 cast.

Advocates knew that after the May 1, 2017 King County Council vote they had some challenges for the August 1 election. The County Council was divided with bipartisan opposition. The most powerful paper, The Seattle Times, did not favor it. But, they organized a strong campaign with nearly $2 million in funding, TV advertising and many local endorsements.

In the end, the local tax environment was too much to overcome. The Seattle area sales tax has been increased repeatedly and is now above 10 percent. It’s often referred to as a regressive tax. There are a host of other issues the Times and others wanted addressed, such as homelessness, affordable housing and opioids. Arts funding was seen as a lower priority.

It is a reminder of how special Denver’s SCFD is and serves as a challenge to Denver’s cultural and civic leaders to nurture and protect it.

See articles:
The Stranger: King County Council Puts 'Access for All' on the August Ballot
Seattle Times: ‘Education, inspiration’: King County putting sales tax to fund arts on August ballot
Seattle Times: King County voters saying no to Prop. 1 sales-tax plan
Seattle Times: Voter rejection of Proposition 1 sends message about tax measures
King 5 TV: Analysts say Prop One results point to levy fatigue
Cascadia Advocate: King County voters reject proposition to fund the arts with sales tax increase

Monday, August 14, 2017

A Bipartisan Movement on Health Care

The public claims it supports a bipartisan approach to health care legislation now being attempted by a group of independent-minded congresspersons. Seventy-seven percent of Americans tell CNN pollsters that “Republicans should work with Democrats to pass a health care bill.” Only twelve percent said go it alone. In fact, sixty-nine percent of Republicans said go with bipartisan approach.

A bipartisan coalition of the House of Representatives has proffered a plan to stabilize the Obamacare markets to ensure the ACA doesn’t just collapse. This bill has a number of significant elements, but it faces a leadership in both parties that must deal with members committed to completely repeal on the right to single-payer on the left. In Colorado, Representatives Coffman and Polis have been listed as members.

See:
Release: Josh Gottheimer and Tom Reed lead 35 problem solvers caucus members in bipartisan letter to President Trump
Politico: Centrist lawmakers plot bipartisan health care stabilization bill
Bipartisan problem solvers caucus proposal to stabilize the individual market