Friday, October 18, 2019

Pelosi and Trump are Near Tie in Favorable Public Opinion

The Speaker Confronts the President
Photo: White House
After more than a decade being pummeled by Republicans in congressional campaigns, Nancy Pelosi is now nearly even with Donald Trump in public favorability. She is the leader of the national Democratic Party and well ahead of her congressional colleagues on public approval.

Mitch McConnell is rapidly becoming the favorite target of Democrats anxious to take control of the Senate in 2020.

Arapahoe County Jail. Not Needed. Just Let the Inmates Go.

In 2019, whenever you hear the word “justice” in an organization’s name, expect extreme positions with undisclosed motivations and consequences. The Colorado Criminal Justice Reform Coalition with a “bevy of liberal groups, including the ACLU of Colorado, the Colorado People’s Alliance and the Colorado Immigrant Rights Coalition” as labeled by the Aurora Sentinel, condemned the Arapahoe County jail improvement proposal and pushed for their “alternative justice system reform,” which could be better described as “immediate release prisoners proposal.”

In the name of reforming the system, they ignore the crowded, dangerous living conditions of current inmates. They want to change laws to charge fewer people, release most without bail and provide a near perfect diversion system. Of course, many of these reforms are untested, could have major consequences for crime levels and public safety, and are years from being realized.

In the near term, more than 1,000 prisoners are in inhumane conditions and not receiving the mental health or rehabilitation services they need. Inmates are left as hostages to their reform agenda. In addition, public safety personnel are endangered. The Arapahoe County proposal they are fighting offers all the improvements the “justice” groups claim to desire, but condemn it in their ill-conceived disinformation campaign.

Arapahoe County Justice Center and jail | Photo: CPR

Thursday, October 17, 2019

The West’s Top Pollsters Gather in San Francisco to Preview the 2020 Election

The annual Pacific Chapter of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (PAPOR) will meet December 5 and 6 in San Francisco to present new research on public opinion trends and
insights.

One of the most anticipated panels brings together top western states pollsters in a panel titled, “Election Issues in Western States,” to discuss the factors that will shape the 2020 elections, especially in the West. Among topics are the presidential primaries, a host of which are looming on or before Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020. There are at least two competitive senate races – in Arizona and Colorado. And, of course, the presidential race and its impact on lower ballot races, for example, congressional races in Orange County.

The panel has assembled some of California’s best public pollsters:
  • Mark Baldassare – President of Public Policy Institute of California, frequently conducts statewide polls on political, social and economic topics
  • Mark DiCamillo – Director of the Berkeley IGS Poll. With the Los Angeles Times, polling California presidential primary and other public policy topics
  • Jill Darling – Survey Director of USC Dornsife College’s Center for Economic and Social Research, conducting national and California polls, often with the Lost Angeles Times
I will moderate the panel. My topic will be the shift in several states and sub-state jurisdictions from competitive and Republican-leaning areas to blue status today. What are the primary factors causing it and can the Republicans recover during or even post the “Trump era”?

For further information on the conference, go to the PAPOR website here

Colorado Water Congress Joins Host of Agriculture, Business and Recreation Organizations for Proposition DD

The Colorado Water Congress (CWC), the association of the state’s water community, including municipal and special district water organizations, has endorsed Proposition DD, the sports gaming for water funding proposal. They joined dozens of businesses and agricultural associations that realize the critical place water has in Colorado’s prosperity and quality of life.

Among the water agencies endorsing the proposal are: Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, the Colorado River Water Conservation District, Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District, and Water Roundtables in the Rio Grande Basin and North Platte Basin.

Endorsements are still being collected.

Wednesday, October 16, 2019

One Year to the 2020 Presidential Election, Nov. 7 Event

The Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research would like to invite you to attend an event it is cohosting with the Office of Global Engagement, One Year to the 2020 Presidential Election, that will be held on Thursday, November 7, 2019, at 5 p.m. in Maglione Hall at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies.



Can America Be Great Again?

Former Ambassador Christopher Hill and Director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, Floyd Ciruli, will assess the changes in American democracy and the impact on American foreign policy with one year remaining to the 2020 59th presidential election. What does “America First” mean and can America be great again? This event follows the November 8, 2016, “Election Ramifications;” May 1, 2016, “First 100 Days;” and November 1, 2017, “One Year After the Trump Election” events in a series evaluating the Trump presidency with Hill and Ciruli.

5:00 PM – Doors Open / Reception 
5:30 PM – Presentation 
6:15 PM – Q&A
7:00 PM – Event Concludes

Maglione Hall
Josef Korbel School of International Studies
Anna and John J. Sie International Relations Complex

University of Denver
2201 S. Gaylord St., 5th Floor
Denver, CO 80208

REGISTER HERE

Aurora Sentinel Endorses Prop 1A Arapahoe County Jail

In a strongly worded editorial, the Aurora Sentinel encouraged voter support for Arapahoe County Proposition 1A, which will construct a new jail with vital mental health, addiction and rehabilitation programs.

The editorial strongly scolded the opponents, for example, the ACLU of Colorado for their callous disregard of current prisoners who “must dangerously suffer inside the current jail” and the safety of sheriff personnel while they demand the end of bail and release of most inmates.

EDITORIAL: We can’t wait for sentencing reform, Prop 1A will end Arapahoe County jail peril and cruelty now – Yes on 1A

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

The House Will Indict President Trump

At the conclusion of Robert Mueller’s turgid testimony (July 2019), there were 100 House members ready to proceed to an impeachment inquiry. Speaker Nancy Pelosi said “no.” There was no Republican support, and most importantly for her most vulnerable members, only a third of the public was in favor.

Slowly, actions by President Trump (obstruction to congressional inquiries), the pro-impeachment politics in member districts and pressure to move forward within the beltway got that number to 150 by early September. So, when the much clearer and more dramatic Ukrainian whistleblower story broke, it didn’t take long to assemble the current 225 members in favor on an inquiry, move Pelosi to say “yes” (Sept. 25, 2019), and after waiting five months, proceed with speed.

Prediction: Trump will be indicted by the House. Pelosi, Adam Schiff and House leadership must only handle Trump’s defense and keep a majority of the public satisfied that the process is fair and well-managed. (More than 50% now favor an inquiry and very near a majority (49%) favor impeachment.)

Observation: Trump is so convinced that Joe Biden will beat him in key swing states, he has repeatedly engaged in Ukraine-type acts and empowered his attorney, Rudy Giuliani, to do likewise. “Biden fear” has launched Trump’s impeachment – like Dick Nixon’s fear of Democrats in 1972.

Mueller Report: The Mueller Report and Robert Mueller’s testimony remain a powerful constant in the impeachment story. One hundred members said they were for an inquiry after the testimony. For them, the Ukrainian imbroglio is just more evidence of “high crimes and misdemeanors.”

See The Buzz:
DU Panel on Colorado 2020 Primaries Attracted a Packed House
Fast Moving Impeachment Story Driving Public Opinion