Friday, July 1, 2016

Glenn Wins Primary, But Can he Scale Up to Senate?

Darryl Glenn, a little known El Paso County Commissioner, just won the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Colorado, with about 130,000 votes in a five-person field in a low turnout primary (38% of 350,000 votes). Ted Cruz and Sarah Palin endorsements joined a late contribution from a conservative Washington D.C. Super PAC to help him reach $500,000 in contributions.

Darryl Glenn & Michael Bennet
But by Labor Day, Glenn will need to scale up his volunteer grassroots campaign to attract millions in campaign contributions and communicate with more than three million voters.

In an interview with Dan Frosch for the Wall Street Journal:
Floyd Ciruli, a longtime independent pollster in Colorado, said the race against Mr. Bennet could well be a close one.
“To the extent that a huge proportion of this re-election is going to be a reflection of the anti-establishment tone of the presidential race, there are early indications that the race will be competitive in Colorado,” he said.
Still, Mr. Ciruli said, Mr. Bennet was well-positioned to defend his seat, noting that Mr. Glenn would have to tack to the center and scale up a bare-bones campaign that had so far focused only on a narrow portion of Colorado’s electorate.

Western Conservative Summit Test for Trump

The 4,000 strong Western Conservative Summit is a test for Donald Trump’s ability to appeal to conservative activists and rank and file before the Republican National Convention in Cleveland starting on July 18.
Donald Trump and Sarah Palin

Valerie Richardson in the Washington Times (6-30-16) writes:
“This is clearly a test case for Trump, a sort of warm-up for Cleveland,” said Denver-based political analyst Floyd Ciruli. “If he can’t walk out of the Western Conservative Summit, in my view, with a good welcome and a reasonable degree of unity, then I think it bodes very, very poorly for about three weeks from now.”
She points out:
  • Trump backers, Sarah Palin and Duck Dynasty’s Phil Robertson, will be joined by Trump opponents, Senator Ben Sasse and blogger Erick Erickson.
  • Colorado was an overwhelming Ted Cruz state with no delegates for Trump in a caucus process, which he criticized unmercifully.
  • But, if there is a unifying theme, it’s dislike for Hillary Clinton. A recent poll claims Colorado is in play with her ahead by only one point.

Glenn Wins Low Turnout Primary; Thirty-Eight Percent Enough in Fractured Field

Darryl Glenn wins the Republican primary on basis of his spectacular State Convention win, powerful endorsements in the last couple weeks of the campaign:

Ted Cruz – Texas Senator
Ben Sasse – Nebraska Senator
Mike Lee – Utah Senator
Sarah Palin – former VP
Erick Erickson – blogger
Mark Levin – radio host
James Dobson – Focus on the Family founder
Freedom Works – Tea Party group

And, an infusion of late contributions led by the Senate Conservative Fund, Washington D.C. conservative (non-Trump) Super PAC.

As I said to Alexis Levinson in the National Review:
The run of endorsements has allowed Glenn to carve out a niche as the conservative in the race. Publicly, he has taken stances reminiscent of Cruz: He promised he would not work across the aisle with Democrats, and said he would vote against Mitch McConnell as Senate majority leader. He described himself as an “unapologetic Christian constitutional conservative” in his convention speech. “That is still a very powerful candidate in a low-turnout Republican primary,” says Colorado pollster Floyd Ciruli.
See Colorado Secretary of State 2016 primary ballot return bulletin here

Thursday, June 30, 2016

Ciruli Calls the Race for 9KUSA

Darryl Glenn
With about 160,000 votes in, Floyd Ciruli, 9KUSA political analyst, calls the race for Darryl Glenn, El Paso County Commissioner, to be the Republican Party nominee for U.S. Senate.

See:
AP: Darryl Glenn wins GOP Senate primary race
The Buzz: Republican Senate field now five

Beth McCann Wins Big

Beth McCann
Photo: Denver Post
Beth McCann wins the Denver District Attorney primary 12 years after losing the job to incumbent Mitch Morrissey. McCann was outspent and out-endorsed, but beat presumed frontrunner Michael Carrigan substantially. Denver voters seem to prefer the candidates the establishment doesn’t endorse. Chris Nevitt lost for auditor and Michael Carrigan for DA.

McCann was the candidate with the widest experience in a year when Democrats are supporting a woman with experience for president. She will be running with Hillary Clinton and will likely win big.

See:
Colorado Independent: Dems vying for Denver DA each calling for reforms post-Morrissey era

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Metro Schools Ask for $1.6 Billion in Metro Property Tax – 9KUSA Nelson Garcia

The major Denver metro area school districts believe the 2016 general election is the best choice to pass a record-breaking bond initiative for new facilities.

Five observations about the property tax increase in conversation with Nelson Garcia of 9KUSA:

  1. Ciruli says these ballot questions will not be easy. In 2013, Amendment 66 wanted to generate a $1 billion in funding for schools. That measure failed. "The public is very, very frugal and reluctant to put a lot more money into education," Ciruli said.
  2. However, Ciruli points out Denver voters are not afraid to pass big bond issues. In 2012, voters approved $466 million. JeffCo is a different story. The last major bond issue to pass was in 2004 at a total of $323 million. "The number of residents and voters who actually have children in the school district is a very small percentage, maybe even 20 percent or less," Ciruli said.
  3. In 2015, voters successfully launched a recall effort to remove three conservative-leaning board members from the JeffCo School Board. Ciruli says that might leave bond supporters well equipped for a November push again. "It looks to me they probably have an on-the-ground network of supporters and volunteers that can help," Ciruli said. "Boy, that is extremely important to have in one of these elections."
  4. "In a Presidential election, you get a younger voter," Floyd Ciruli, 9News Political Analyst, said. Ciruli is not surprised these big ballot questions are likely to be put in front of the voters because he says, generally, younger voters means these issues will be approved.
  5. Ciruli cautions however there is one big factor that could skew all the results -- the Donald Trump factor. "He sort of rearranged the table," Ciruli said. "So, honestly, I don't think I could predict." The fiery presidential election between presumptive nominees, Trump and Hillary Clinton, may change the rate of voter turnout, Ciruli says. "We're not even certain if it's going to be a record high turnout or if some groups may say there's nobody I can vote for and just stay home," Ciruli said.

Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Final British Polls Wrong on Result

One final poll showed the “leave” camp winning close, but it was an exception after a weekend of polls and betting markets that appeared to favor the “stay” camp. But voters said “leave” clearly by four percentage points (52% to 48%).

British polling has suffered another embarrassment after its failure to predict the Conservative Party majority vote in 2015.

The major impacts for the British people and world at large include:
  1. Cameron out. Immediate impact on the British and world economy from the withdrawal. Dow drops 600 points.
    • The British government falls. Cameron is out and a new prime minister in October.
  2. EU crisis. Europe loses its most powerful nation. Nationalist, anti-immigrant parties gather strength.
  3. Not “Great Britain.” Scotland, other parts of Britain may seek seceding votes.
  4. Good for the bear. The Atlantic and NATO alliances weakened. Russia wins from European disunion.
  5. Elites in trouble. British voters highlighted the divide in western developed societies. Immigration, national identity and sovereignty are top issues with British electorate (52% at least). The conflict brought down the government and similar divisions are rolling Western center-right and left politics throughout the Continent and U.S.
  6. Good for Donald, not for Hillary. Good news for Donald Trump and his anti-immigrant, nationalist campaign. He endorsed the “leave” side. Hillary Clinton represents the elite D.C./NY position. She is “stay” all the way.
See blogs:
Brexit: Leave the EU Closed the Gap
Will Britain Leave the EU?