Economy Helping Obama

The improved economic conditions and President Obama’s relentless rhetorical focus on jobs appears to be working.  His job approval on handling the economy is up 12 points from a low last summer and up 8 points since November.  Somewhat surprising, his handling of the budget deficit also improved by 6 points since November in spite of little focus on it in the new budget proposal.

Although Republican presidential candidates criticize Obama for a variety of foreign policy positions and actions, foreign affairs has been and continues to be Obama’s high job performance area – 48 percent approval.

Obama’s current overall job approval is 47 percent, up from 43 percent in November and December.  Although he is still on the edge of the approval level associated with winning and losing, Obama’s numbers have moved in the right direction since December.

See:

Gallup:  Obama’s economic approval rating improves

Gallup:  Catholics’ approval of Obama little changed

Washington Post:  The Fix: Why Obama’s budget is smart politics

Social Issues are Back

Although social issues have been below the surface in the 2012 presidential race, they have periodically made it into the debate.  Immigration provided controversy in several early debates, but until the February 2012 contraception/religious freedom controversy, the economy was dominant. 

Social issues became a major topic when President Obama reversed the administration’s position on requiring religious organizations to provide contraception at no cost in their insurance plans after sustaining a full assault from religious and conservative leaders and media outlets.

Contraception is not a controversial topic for most Americans, but forcing religious health and insurance organizations to provide them against their values is controversial.

Pew’s poll, which does not test the issue in terms of religious freedom, found Americans in favor of the exemption 48 percent to 44 percent, with Catholics 55 percent in favor.

Like most issues in 2012, partisanship is framing this topic with more than a 40 percentage point difference between Republicans and Democrats on the issue.

Americans See China as a Super Power; Friendly, But Not an Ally

Americans have decidedly mixed views about the rising power of China.  Although more than 70 percent see it as friendly or an ally, about one-quarter of Americans see China as an enemy or unfriendly (23%).

Importantly, a plurality of Americans believes China will pass the U.S. as the leading world power (42%).  However, people are closely divided as to their impression of China as favorable (42%) and unfavorable (44%).  As of today, Americans support having a strong relationship with China (71%) and cooperating with them (more than 60%).

Vice President Xi Jinping’s visit highlight was “tea time” in Iowa.  The trip has been generally judged a success in presenting a friendly face of the Chinese leadership.  The Iowa event reflected not only Xi Jinping’s public relations skill, but also his emphasis on rural development, farmers and food supply.  While China may appear to be about huge new cities, like Shanghai and Guangzhou, the country is still mostly about the billion citizens of rural areas.

See Gallup:  Americans, opinion leaders see U.S.-China ties as friendly

Japan’s Favorability With American People is in Top Tier

Japan joins English-speaking countries of Canada, Australia and Great Britain as among the most highly favored by Americans.  Germany is also in the top five.

Americans have greater passion for their English cousins than any other country.  Israel (29% “very favorable”; 71% total favorable) joins Germany and Japan with more than one-quarter of the public rating them “very favorable.”  Japan’s favorability increased from 2011 to 2012, possibly due to sympathy and admiration for the people in the earthquake and tsunami disaster.

See Gallup:  Americans give record-high ratings to several U.S. allies

Western Senate and Governor Contests Heat Up

Two senate races will dominate western elections in 2012.  In Montana, incumbent Democrat Senator Jon Tester is in a difficult re-election and behind by a few points in several polls to Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg.

Nevada will have another major battle after the epic fight in 2010 won by Majority Leader Harry Reid.  Newly appointed Senator Dean Heller is close in fundraising to Democrat Representative Shelley Berkley.  The race appears very competitive.

Montana has a spirited governor’s race to replace term-limited Democrat Brian Schweitzer.  Democrat Attorney General Steve Bullock out-fundraised Republican Congressman Rick Hill, the frontrunner in an eight-person Republican primary. 

Washington, which has a recent history of close governor’s elections, may be heading toward another with Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna and Democrat Congressman Jay Inslee in a race judged very competitive by local analysts.  Christine Gregoire, the Democratic term-limited governor, just made national press by signing the country’s eighth gay marriage law.

See Politico:

Top gubernatorial races to watch

Va. reclaims lead in senate top 10

Colorado in Middle Position in Western Political Mood

The country moved to the right the last two years and the West has some of the most conservative and Republican states in the country.

Americans are still more likely to identify as conservative (40%) than liberal (21%).  About one-third are self-declared moderates (36%) (Gallup, Feb. 3, 2012).  Also, Gallup (Feb. 2, 2012) reports that the Democratic Party lost their advantage in 18 states since 2008 and Republicans gained the advantage in six.

The table shows the twelve continental mountain and pacific states arrayed from the most conservative and Republican represented by Utah, Wyoming, Idaho and Alaska to the most liberal and Democratic; i.e., California, Washington and Oregon.

Arizona, Colorado and Nevada are the most competitive from both a partisan and ideological perspective.  Although Montana and New Mexico are in the middle of the competitive range, Montana leans Republican and New Mexico leans Democratic.

Conservative states tend to be in the South (Mississippi the most conservative) and the West.  None are on the coast.  All the most liberal states are on the coasts, with Oregon, Washington and California in the West.

See Gallup:

More states move to GOP in 2011

Mississippi most conservative state, D.C. most liberal

Colorado Started the Long March

The Rick Santorum sweep of three states on February 7 changed the direction of the presidential race.  The Colorado win was “a major upset.”

“This time, ‘losing one of these races is not game-changing,’ said Floyd Ciruli, a Denver-based independent political consultant.  ‘But it would be a lifeline for one of the other candidates.’”  Miami Herald, 2-6-12

But losing three and “definitely, there is a new story now.”  Denver Post, 2-7-12

The following examines the Colorado caucuses results and provides analysis showing that the Colorado Republican Party has a new nominating majority that can defeat the party establishment.

1.      Santorum carried most of rural Colorado, especially the High Plains.  He won the large counties that delivered for the Tea Party Movement candidates in 2010:  Adams (41%), El Paso (47%), Larimer (44%), Mesa (47%), Pueblo (44%) and Weld (48%).

“This harkens back to 2010, when the Tea Party essentially upset the established Republican candidates for the Colorado governor and Senate races, and it clearly demonstrates that the grass roots of the party remains very conservative and is unwilling to unite behind the presumptive frontrunner,” Ciruli said.  Denver Post, 2-7-12

2.      Santorum came to Colorado repeatedly while Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich were battling in Florida and Nevada.

“Santorum played it smart, Ciruli said.  While Romney and challenger Newt Gingrich exchanged expensive blows before the Florida primary, Santorum went to Colorado and the Midwest to appeal to the conservative arm in the Republican Party.  He targeted the three states that would likely have low turnouts and had large numbers of enthusiastic and conservative voters, Ciruli said.”  Denver Post, 2-7-12

“Floyd Ciruli, a Denver-based political analyst, said while the other candidates were focused on Nevada's caucus last weekend (where Romney easily won and Santorum came in a distant last), Santorum was attending a Lincoln Day Dinner in tea party-friendly Weld County, Colo., and drawing a record crowd.  Also, Ciruli said, Romney seemed to take Colorado for granted.”  Morning Call Washington Bureau, 2-8-12

3.      Turnout, while slightly below 2008, was dominated by Santorum’s conservatives.

            70,000 caucus attendees in 2008 – Romney 60%

            66,000 caucus attendees in 2012 – Santorum 40%

4.      Conservatives want to win the general election, but were not willing to endorse the candidate labeled as the “establishment moderate” and not convinced a lack of sharp contrast makes a winner.

“And Ciruli sees a deeper problem for Romney: GOP voters are rejecting him as the ‘establishment moderate.’

‘This is a party that desperately wants to win — that sees Obama as terribly dangerous,’ Ciruli said, ‘but they still are not willing to give their vote at this point to someone not filling their aspirations.  They’re just not willing to do that.’”  Morning Call Washington Bureau, 2-8-12

5.      Romney won Colorado by 60 percent in 2008 against John McCain.  But, he was positioned as the more conservative candidate.  The last poll before this primary had Romney with 40 percent to Santorum’s 26 percent, but robo polls have difficulty identifying caucus attendees.

“9NEWS political analysts have said our state could weed out a bottom contender, and perhaps set the pace for the rest of the western United States.

Even though Mitt Romney won Colorado in 2008 with 60 percent of the vote, this time 9NEWS Political analyst Floyd Ciruli says it’s not in the bag for Romney.

‘He’s going to have some concern about the fact that he is now seen as the more moderate person - four years ago was the conservative against John McCain so he’s seen as the more moderate person against this array of conservatives,’ Ciruli said.”  9News, 2-5-12

6.      The Santorum victory reflects vulnerability for the party.  He will have a significant challenge attracting moderates and independents that control winning Colorado’s statewide votes.

“‘It shows Colorado remains the model out there for the Republicans for the challenges that they face.  They are trying to find a candidate who can appeal to both the conservatives in the party and the independent voters,’ Ciruli said.”  Denver Post, 2-7-12

The Colorado caucus results were a major upset and changed the game.  The Republican nominee may still be Romney, but it will require a long slog.

See articles:

Denver Post:  Rick Santorum declared winner in Colorado Republican caucuses

Call Washington Bureau:  Rick Santorum’s wins a true loss for Romney

The Miami Herald:  Romney favored, Santorum lurking as 3 states vote Tuesday

NPR News:  Rick Santorum has huge night, sweeping three Republican contests

9News:  Busy day for candidates before Tuesday’s Colorado caucus

Wall Street Journal:  Feels like home for one candidate in Colorado race

The New York Times:  In Colorado, a struggle between pragmatism and passion