Friday, July 22, 2016

Colorado is No Longer a Battleground State

In 2016, Colorado will not be a battleground state. Nominee Donald Trump has shifted his attention to the Midwest, the Rust Belt and Northeast (early targets: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin) appealing to working and middle class White voters.

Colorado moved out of battleground status for several reasons.
  • Due to the last two presidential races, Colorado became a presumed “lean Democratic” state. The latest polls confirm the presumption with Hillary Clinton up 8 points and Senator Michael Bennet ahead 18 (see NBC/WSJ Claims Clinton Up 8 Points in Colorado and Darryl Glenn Wins Convention Spot, But Losing in Race With Michael Bennet ).
  • Colorado is not a blue collar, depressed manufacturing state. Its growing Hispanic and Millennial population makes it a much more diverse and likely to vote Democratic.
  • The Colorado Republican Party is not Trump friendly. Ted Cruz dominated the Republican base in the state (he won the nomination ballot, got his Senate candidates nominated with a third of vote). At the just completed Republican Convention, it was the Colorado delegation that was the most obstreperous.
The implications of this shift are not good for Colorado Republicans, local TV stations and people who would like to see Donald Trump between now and the election.


Anonymous said...

All voters, be they Republican, Democrat or Independent should have the right to vote for their choice. We have the technology now days to make that happen. No longer necessary to have someone carry our vote for us, especially when they would be allowed to "change" that vote because of their "conscience"!

Unknown said...

For the time being, most likely accurate; however, there is still a ways to go here and any state that leans one way or another, which is how I would describe Colorado, can certainly flip in short order ... Looking at the electoral map for this election, it is Clinton´s to lose ...

Unknown said...

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