|Gail Schwartz and Scott Tipton|
Gail Schwartz is a highly motivated Western Slope politician, who often receives encouragement to run for office from Democratic-leaning supporters, and she has long indicated a personal interest in another job. But, it was Donald Trump and the possibility of a Republican disaster that caught the eye of the Washington D.C. Democratic power structure and ramped up the pressure and financial incentives to encourage her to run.
As I said to Mark Matthews (Denver Post, 7-14-16):
Floyd Ciruli, a Colorado political analyst, said Schwartz’s strong fundraising quarter sends a signal to Democratic donors that “this is a race to put money into.”
But he added that the GOP edge in the district, coupled with Tipton’s incumbency, means that to win she still would likely need a wave year for Democrats.
“It’s the kind of seat that could be won in a year where there is a 30 to 40 seat sweep,” Ciruli said.Hillary Clinton is ahead in Colorado. But, her numbers are only in the mid-40 percent range (See Ciruli’s forecast here) and the national generic congressional ballot test numbers only give Democrats a 2 percent advantage. But, it’s early, and Clinton is ahead of Trump by 8 points at the start of the conventions.