Bennet and Udall: A Year Before the Election

Although Senator Michael Bennet is currently enjoying an opponent-free summer, the Colorado election environment continues to suggest the races next year will be closely fought.

Senate races have become more tied to presidential races, and Hillary Clinton’s latest national and local polls have had bad news in favorability, trust and head-to-head tests (The Buzz: Clinton in Trouble in Colorado – 9-KUSA).

When examining former Senator Mark Udall’s approval and re-election numbers 14 months out to Bennet’s, it’s clear that Bennet, even without a Republican challenger, faces an unfriendly political environment. Compared to Udall, he has 6 points less approval; he’s below the President’s (45% national). And, he is underwater in his re-election numbers: 40 percent say “don’t re-elect” to 32 percent “re-elect.” Again, he compares poorly to Udall, who was 8 points up in the summer before the election. Of course, Udall lost by 2 points in November 2014.

Debates Can Change the Contour of a Race

Debates can move polls. In 2012, Newt Gingrich probably won the South Carolina primary on his

Photo: Fox News

debate performance just before the event. But, that was unusual. There were 20 debates in 2012, and most were forgettable.

The Fox News debate may be in the exceptional category. Twenty-four million people watched it – a cable record. It will test some wild behavior (Trump), allow some candidates to be discovered (Fiorina) and shift the media conversation as Labor Day passes and the next debate looms (Sept. 16, CNN).

In an online overnight poll from Friday evening to Saturday using SurveyMonkey participants, Donald Trump was still the frontrunner with 23 percent of the respondents. Carly Fiorina came in fourth with 8 percent, a huge jump up, and she was declared the debate winner by 22 percent.

Democrats Finally Finalize Debate Schedule

The National Democratic Party finally rushed out its debate schedule after criticism from second-tier candidates, Martin O’Malley and Bernie Sanders. Only six dates were listed for debates; only three in 2015 and not starting until October 13.

Democrats also saw that the Republican debate was generating massive amounts of interest and was showcasing a number of credible challengers to frontrunner Hillary Clinton.

See:
Boston.com: O'Malley and Sanders tell Democratic Party that six debates are not enough
The Atlantic: Democrats debate the debates

Cuban Policy Marches On

Secretary John Kerry will travel to Cuba on August 14 to open the U.S. Embassy. Cubans raised their flag over a re-opened embassy in Washington, D.C., July 20 (Embassy Opens and Obama Wants to Travel, 7-7).

On July 21, Hillary Clinton called on Congress to end the trade embargo in effect since 1962. Clinton believes she will find majority support, even among the Cuban-American community. Recent U.S. polls show the trend is indeed in favor of rapprochement, including an end to the embargo. A new Pew Research poll shows a 10-point increase in support for President Obama reestablishing diplomatic ties with Cuba and a 6-point increase to 72 percent to end the trade embargo since January of this year.

Nationally, a majority of Republicans (56%) and conservative Republicans (52%) support diplomatic relations and ending the embargo (Republicans favor ending 59% and 55% for conservative Republicans).

Although leading Republican presidential candidates are opposing the new policy and are competing in the Florida primary on March 15, in terms of the general election, Democrats are hopeful Cuban-American opinion is shifting sufficiently to help them win Florida.

And, indeed, two new Florida polls show that Cuban-American opinion is moving toward diplomatic solutions and against embargos due to the increased number of Cubans born in America (not Cuba) and new arrivals since the relaxation of immigration rules in the last decade.

A Florida International University poll showed 52 percent favored ending the embargo. In a related question in 1982 covering increasing economic pressure on Cuba, 87 percent of Cubans in Miami-Dade County favored harsher sanctions.

See:
NPR: Republicans stand against Cuba change despite public opinion shift
AP: Clinton: End Cuba embargo ‘once and for all’

Two Groups Solid for Iran Nuclear Deal: U.S. Jews and Iranian Citizens

While American public opinion appears to waver between support and opposition concerning the U.S.–Iranian nuclear deal, depending how the question is asked, two disparate groups, often appearing as enemies if one listens to respective spokespersons, in fact, strongly back the Iranian nuclear deal.

Iran
A recent survey conducted jointly by the University of Maryland and University of Tehran (May 12-28, 2015, N1009) shows 57 percent of Iranians support the agreement. The poll suggests the primary motivation for support is improvement in the economy and availability of scarce goods, such as medicine. Also, Iranians like Americans (52% favorable view) much more than the U.S. government (12% favorable view). They would like more cultural and tourist exchange.

American Jews
In a survey reported in the LA Jewish Journal (July 16-20, 2015, N501), a majority of American Jews (53%) believed Congress should “vote to approve the deal.” A larger majority (59%) believed the idea of conducting negotiations with Iran was a good one rather than a bad one (19%). The analysis points out that the majority of American Jews are Democrats and more liberal than the public at large.

See:
The Hill: Mark Mellman: What’s the deal with Iran deal?

The Republican Debate

In what was supposed to be an introduction of the Republican candidates to the party and public has become a major event, which has already narrowed the field from seventeen to ten and likely will produce more winners and losers tonight.

Photo: Fox News

Polls have never been so powerful. Not only were they used to select the top ten, but even the Fox News’ placement of the candidates used the polling data to put Donald Trump in the middle with the next two ranking candidates – Jeb Bush and Scott Walker – on each side and the remaining seven in descending order.

See Fox News announces candidate line-up for prime-time debate

Colorado Supports Death Penalty; Country Less So

James Holmes
Photo: Andy Cross/AP

A new poll shows two-thirds (67% Quinnipiac) of Colorado voters support the death penalty, whereas nationally, public support has declined from recent high levels to barely over half (56% Pew) today. Coloradans’ opinion may have been affected by the James Holmes mass murder trial, which has been ongoing for months and his conviction was announced while the poll was in the field. In a specific question concerning Holmes, 63 percent of Coloradans said he should get the death penalty.

The Associated Press ran a long story on the fact that even with the death penalty, few convicted Colorado murderers are sentenced to death, and even when sentenced, almost none are executed.

The sparseness of Colorado’s death-row population is not necessarily due to lack of support for capital punishment. Nonpartisan Denver Pollster Floyd Ciruli says support for the death penalty in Colorado polls has generally tracked those in national ones for decades. In 2013, a Quinnipiac University Poll indicated that 69 percent of Colorado voters backed capital punishment. (AP, July 21, 2015)

Pew Research points out the major shift from 62 percent favoring the death penalty in 2011 to only 56 percent today was among Democrats, who shifted 13 points against, and women, who moved from 33 percent against to 45 percent today, or 12 percent. Although there are significant differences in the Colorado poll between Democrats and Republicans and men and women, all four groups support continuing the death penalty, albeit in the case of Democrats, by only 4 points.