The Buzz: Early Polls – Still Biden Advantage

Thursday, September 3, 2020

Early Polls – Still Biden Advantage

Donald Trump needed a bounce from his convention. In fact, he needed a leap. He was losing on average 7.4 points before the event and is losing this week by 7.2 points according to the RealClearPolitics average posted yesterday, Wednesday, September 2.

Today’s results aren’t much better in the battleground states. A new Fox News poll conducted in Arizona, North Carolina and Wisconsin through September 1 shows Trump losing to Biden by an average of 7 points. All three Republican senate candidates are also on the defensive.

Fox News Poll

Arizona, North Carolina and Wisconsin

	Arizona	North Carolina	Wisconsin
Biden	49%	50%	50%
Trump	40	46	42
Difference	9	4	8

Source: Fox News, 8/29-9/1, 2020
Format: Ciruli Associates 2020

Political Polls: Can we trust them?

I just did a political podcast for the University of Denver online radio on the accuracy of polls:

What happened to the polls in 2016?
Are they better today?
Biden’s ahead, but Trump has strengths
Is there a Silent Majority being missed in the polls?

Listen to the podcast here

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Ciruli Associates

Mr. Ciruli is president of Ciruli Associates, a public policy and research firm based in Denver, Colorado, and Orange County, California.

Mr. Ciruli is a Senior Fellow at the University Colorado Denver School of Public Affairs. He will join a lecture and panel program on the 2024 election. He has taught public opinion and media at the Denver School of Public Affairs.

Mr. Ciruli was the founding Director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies. He was an adjunct professor of public opinion and foreign policy.

Mr. Ciruli holds a law degree from Georgetown University in Washington, D.C. and a bachelor’s degree cum laude in political science from UCLA. He is a member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), and is the past-president of the Pacific Chapter of AAPOR (PAPOR). Mr. Ciruli was vice-chair of the Social Science Foundation of the University of Denver Josef Korbel School of International Studies and past-president of the Georgetown Law Alumni Board and the Denver Athletic Club.

Mr. Ciruli is widely known to Colorado audiences as a pollster and political analyst. In 2016, Mr. Ciruli was inducted into the Denver Press Club Hall of Fame.

Thursday, September 3, 2020

Early Polls – Still Biden Advantage

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