Boebert In Trouble with Independent Voters

Boebert and Firsch | Photos by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post

Second term congresswoman Lauren Boebert is behind in the latest polling primarily because she is losing the large block of unaffiliated voters in the Third District by 17 points. The trajectory of her political career has been a rocket ride from obscurity in 2019 into Congress and then into national fame with an anti-establishment approach.

But the ride down has been just as quick. Her well-publicized disruptive behavior at the State of the Union (March 2022) and this year’s Speaker of the House election gave her a national constituency of far-right allies but cost her support in Colorado. A Republican primary opponent in 2022 with little money received 34 percent and in November she only won by 546 votes.

The District was designed during redistricting to have an 11 point Republican advantage in registration and performance. Former President Trump won it by 8 points in 2020 and the latest poll claims he’s ahead 5 points. However, she trails Democrat Adam Frisch in fundraising and has just picked up serious primary opponent. Her unfavourability rating is 53 percent. Lauren Boebert, as of today, is losing and Trump won’t help.

Ciruli Associates, Keating Research, Colorado Secretary of State

READ MORE:
Boebert Reelect Becomes Less Likely
Boebert Goes Full MAGA
Boebert’s Last Term?

Republican Party after Trump – See Debate

Republican Debate, August 2023
Photos (L-R) Win McNamee, Getty Images | Morry Gash, AP Photo

The Republican debate last Wednesday drew 13 million viewers, more than expected given the absence of the frontrunner. The Democrats regularly get about 10 million viewers and Republicans more. The 2015 August 6 debate with Trump got 24 million hosting Trump’s debut performance.

This debate’s intense exchanges and sharp divisions were enhanced by Trump’s absence. It was a first view of what the national party, at least the presidential wing, looks like when not dominated by Trump. Vivek Ramaswamy, Trump’s stand-in, was attacked repeatedly by Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, and Christ Christie. Trump, himself, took considerable incoming criticism from Ron DeSantis on COVID-19, Haley on spending, and Pence on the Constitution. Haley may have summed up Trump’s greatest vulnerability when she declared, “… we have to face the fact that Trump is the most disliked politician in America. We can’t win a general election that way.”

In my recent discussions in Colorado, Republicans who had voted for Trump claimed they were looking for an alternative. They mentioned Ramaswamy, Robert Kennedy Jr., No Labels. It is a sign that beneath the 50 percent plus of Republicans who claim to support Trump, many are concerned about his political toxicity and are receptive to an alternative.

GOP Debate KOA – Ross Kaminsky

First Republican presidential primary debate Aug 23, 2023
Photo: PEDRO UGARTE/AFP via Getty Images

LISTEN: The Ross Kaminsky Show on KOA

I joined Ross Kaminsky’s morning KOA show for a post-GOP debate analysis.

Although the debate was a lively exchange and illuminated some Republican differences, it was difficult to see how it affected Donald Trump’s 30-point lead. Much of the debate audience and the party treats Trump as the aggrieved incumbent president. They booed at criticism of him and yelled at praise.

It is hard to beat a good arraignment and Trumps’ Georgia booking stole much of the post-debate bounce. But the event did start the nomination process and focus attention on the short timeline until on the Iowa caucus.

Some observations:

• DeSantis had no breakout and not much attention. He was cautious and sounded boring.
• Hutchinson and Burgum are not likely to make many more debates. Hutchinson had strong moments.
• Haley was the best of the crowd, Pence the most lively I’ve seen him, defending the Constitution, taking on Ramaswamy and DeSantis but frequently sounding pious. Scott was not seen much.
• Ramaswamy was the Trump stand-in. Trump’s absence made him the target of much of the ire that contestants likely would have been reluctant to toss at Trump directly.
  Although he won the audience, Haley, Pence, and Christie hit him on inexperience.
  • Don’t need a rookie, on the job training (Pence)
  • You’re like Obama (Christie)
  • Your foreign policy inexperience shows (Haley)

At 38 years old, the blows were serious but he’s more a future prospect than today. He wants to be the MAGA post-Trump favorite.

The next debate is September 27 at the Reagan Library in California. Trump likely won’t make it. Interest in it will depend on how the race evolves in the next 30 days—intense or a sleeper.

Trump Dominates Republican Party for Eight Years

Fox News’ Primetime Republican Debate Snares 24 Million Viewers
AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

It was August 6, 2015, that Donald Trump established his dominance of the Republican party when FOX News provided a platform for him and nine other candidates’ first debate with Bret Bier, Megyn Kelly, and Chris Wallace.

The debate opened with Kelly questioning Trump’s attitude toward women (not being politically correct, as he called it) and he was not seen as the debate winner. But his self-confidence and anti-party attitude (refused to rule out running as an independent) scored points with a base of anti-establishment activists in a party looking for something new.

It’s hard to beat a good arraignment, and the latest arrest in Georgia reinforces his victim claim. His frontrunner status was this year launched by the April New York indictment and arraignment.

Although this August’s debate was lively and it may change the positions of competitors, it doesn’t appear to have damaged Trump, who is considered the incumbent president by many Republicans. After eight years he is still the party frontrunner.

READ: Trump Became Frontrunner After NY Court Case

Japan, South Korea in Historic Summit at Camp David

South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol, left, President Joe Biden and Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, right, meet on Fri, Aug. 18, 2023, at Camp David.
Photo: Andrew Harnik/Associated Press

President Biden’s first foreign policy conclave at Camp David, scene of a number of historic agreements, saw Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yook Suk Yeol overcome a longtime feud from the last century and develop a united regional partnership to address a rising China and North Korean threat.

DU’s Crossley Center’s program on Japanese Diplomacy identified the strategic pressure that pushed to end the rivalry and develop economic and military agreements to secure a free and open Indo-Pacific. North Korea’s nuclear saber rattling, Russia’s attack of Ukraine, China’s alliance with Russia and its own aggression toward Taiwan have changed the strategic dynamic in the region. Japan has moved away from its post-war pacifism to fully join the western democratic alliance and South Korea is shedding the political gridlock of the post-war colonization of the peninsula.

National security has moved political leaders and public opinion in threatened democracies accordingly.

ALSO READ:

POLITICO: At Camp David, Biden hails new era of partisanship between U.S., South Korea and Japan. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/at-camp-david-biden-hails-new-era-of-partnership- between-us-south-korea-and-japan/ar-AA1fsOnY

NY TIMES: U.S.-Japan-South Korea Security Pact Likely to Deepen China’s Dismay https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/19/world/asia/china-biden-camp-david.html

U.S. and Japan Diplomacy Program: Webinars Posted https://fciruli.blogspot.com/2022/05/us-and-japan-diplomacy-program-webinars.html

The Year of the Indo-Pacific https://fciruli.blogspot.com/2023/01/the-year-of-indo-pacific.html

Boebert Reelect Becomes Less Likely

Jeff Hurd and Lauren Boebert | Photo: AP file

Lauren Boebert, the county’s most vulnerable Republican, has just suffered another damaging blow. Jeff Hurd, a Republican attorney from Mesa, the 3rd Congressional District’s largest county, just announced a primary challenge. His campaign is endorsed by Republican icon, former Senator Hank Brown, and Grand Junction’s most respected Republican leader, former President of Mesa University, Tim Foster.

Hurd’s candidacy essential signals the party establishment believes Boebert will lose the race and they are preparing to take the seat back in the 2026 election.

Another Interest Rate Hike. Depends But Possible.

Powell suggests 'couple' more hikes coming Photo: Jonathan Ernst, Reuters

After the eleventh interest rate increases since early 2022, inflation is down but not out, the economy is up, and unemployment is low. What’s next? The predicted first half recession did not happen and is not foreseen yet. In fact, the U.S. market is in bull territory. As of end of July after a sell-off in 2022, S&P is up 17, the NASDAQ 36 percent, and even the lagging Dow gained 7 percent.

In June, a West Coast bond trader, among others, predicted no further rate hikes. Wrong. In July, the Fed raised rates by a quarter point to 5.25-5.50 percent. And although high compared to recent lows of half a point, 5 percent is more than common, and rates were 20 percent in 1980 and 8 percent in 1990. Will there be another increase in September? Depending on inflation data, another pause may be in order but with core inflation above 4.8 percent, twice the Fed goal, the presumption is another increase is still possible.

Politics is a factor; Inflation is the top economic worry voters tell pollsters. With presidential nominations and the election within sight, expect more concern about inflation this fall.