Low Turnout Election Says “No” to Statewide Initiatives

Voter turnout appears to be just above the modest turnout in 2019 of 1.5 million. The count was 1,565,994 as of Wednesday, November 3. I predicted 1.5 million on the Monday before Election Day (see KOA blog). Presidential elections in Colorado now can reach a turnout of 3.2 million voters (2020) and the last midterm saw 2.5 million voters (2018).

Voters said “no” across-the-board to statewide ballot measures. They defeated an increased marijuana tax for educational programming (54% no), a property tax assessment decrease (57% no) and a requirement that all state spending (e.g., federal funds) must go through the state legislative process (56% no). The three measures lacked much attention and the general mood of the few voters wasn’t supportive of Republican-driven statewide initiatives (Colorado Rising) or an ill-defined new tax initiative on marijuana for education. Although it had some bipartisan support and funding, and Governors Bill Owens and Bill Ritter and Mayors Wellington Webb and Federico Pena supported it, the Democratic Party called it a back-door voucher program.

In the few off-year elections held in Colorado, turnout tends to be low. In 2019, Colorado voters said “no” to a TABOR override, which had bipartisan support and a well-financed campaign.

Read The Buzz:
Lower Turnout in Off-Year Races
Denver and Colorado Elections: 2021 KOA Interview

Congratulations to Denver Water for Boulder County Settlement on Gross Reservoir Expansion

Boulder County commissioners accepted with considerable regret and bad humor the weakness of their legal position and that Denver Water’s offer of $10 million for mitigation was all they were going to get (Denver later added $2.5 million). It was unfortunate that all the time and funding for studies and lawyers was expended, but Boulder would not have approved the construction permit and were just using the process to stall. Denver Water has been working to get the project underway for more than a decade while the cost of construction increased and the shortage of water grew. Fortunately for the metro area’s critical water infrastructure, the federal planning process and the courts simply made it impossible to continue delay.

Denver Water, their board, management and lawyers showed considerable patience, resilience and strategic insight in arriving at a conclusion. Well done, and good news for the metro area.

Gross Reservoir

Read:
The Buzz: “Denver Water Sues Boulder County” and “West is Baking, Burning and Drying Out”

The Colorado Sun: “Powerless” against Denver Water, Boulder County Oks deal to triple size of Gross Reservoir

Denver Says “No” to Arena and to Republican Proposals on Taxes and Homelessness

A low, but overwhelmingly Democratic voter turnout supported four of five city bond initiatives, but said “no” to the $190 million National Western arena – a loss that many predicted.

While the controversial arena proposal lost, the City did receive approval for four other bonds for a total of $260 million benefiting transportation projects, libraries, cultural facilities, housing and parks projects. They each received about 60 percent voter support. But on the fifth item, a third of those voters shifted sides and said “no” to the arena (58% voted no).

With 89,000 Democratic voters to 19,000 Republican, being a Republican-labeled initiative was a fatal burden. The cap on taxes was crushed and the camping ban lost, although by smaller a percentage.

2021 Looks Like 2009 and Obama’s First Year Elections. Will the Midterms Be the Same?

Ten months into Barack Obama’s first term, the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections were a confirmation of his steady decline in the polls (from a much higher level of approval than Biden) and the Tea Party grassroots turmoil seen for months. Republicans Bob McDonnell won in Virginia and Chris Christie in New Jersey. The major observation was that they won the independent vote Obama had carried so handily in 2008.

The elections were the prelude to a disastrous 2010 midterm election, which began with Democrats losing Ted Kennedy’s vacant Massachusetts senate seat in the January replacement election due to his death. In November, their newly won (2006) House majority and Speaker Nancy Pelosi lost 64 seats in the 2010 Obama midterm. What’s the guess on the Democratic loss in 2022? If it’s more than 4 seats, they lose their majority.

See blog: Midterms are Ugly for Incumbent President’s Party

State Supreme Court Starts the 2022 Congressional Races

Supreme Court Justice Monica Márquez just delivered a unanimous court approval of the Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission plan for congressional redistricting. The decision will start the 2022 congressional races for seven seats with incumbents and one new competitive seat in the North Denver to Greeley area.

Márquez responded to complaints and appeals with approval of the Commission and its process. She dismissed the objections raised by Democrats and Latino groups arguing the Commission acted within its authority to enforce state constitutional requirements and didn’t abuse its discretion. Her praise of the overall process was fulsome:

“This year has marked a watershed for congressional redistricting in Colorado. For the first time, the state’s congressional district map is not the product of politics or litigation; it is instead the product of public input, transparent deliberation, and compromise among twelve ordinary voters representing the diversity of our state.”

All seven incumbents have a partisan advantage. Republicans did much better than expected and could end up with a 4-4 delegation. Lauren Boebert, who is the Democrats’ main target, was given a better district than she currently serves. Her most serious opponents’ home isn’t in the district. Republicans are at least competitive in Ed Perlmutter’s newly designed 7th CD and they start in a strong position in the new very competitive 8th district.

Given President Biden and the Democrats poor positions nationally, Republicans could be running with a tailwind in 2022.

Read:
The Colorado Sun: Colorado Supreme Court approves new congressional map drawn by redistricting commission
The Buzz: Predictions on New Congressional Delegation

Japan Votes to Maintain Steady Consensus

Japanese voters in their national parliamentary election continued their support for the long dominating Liberal Democratic Party giving them 261 seats in a 465-seat lower house of the Diet. Although it is down by 15 seats, it’s well over the 233 seats needed for a majority (an allied party, Komeito, won 32 seats).

The new Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, can begin what is usually a four-year term. Kishida has made clear he intends to continue the basic outline of policies from Shinzo Abe, who served from 2012 to 2020.

• Continue commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific and dealing with the rising tensions with China.
• Strengthen Japan’s military capacity and increase funding. Taiwan’s independence and North Korea’s missile threat are top issues.
• Maintain the alliance with the U.S. As a former foreign minister for Abe, he knows the history, participants and the relationships.
• Build trade relationship with Pacific partners through a remodeled Trans-Pacific Partnership.

He left shortly after the election results to Glasgow, Scotland for the climate conference. Japan has committed billions for financing for developing countries.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (C) puts rosettes by successful candidate
names at his party’s headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, Oct. 31, 2021 | AFP

Read: Japan’s Party Bosses Pick Fumio Kishida Over Taro Kono. Consensus over Reform

G20 – Biden has a Good Moment

Joe Biden’s brief moment in Rome was a respite from the endless bad news that began late summer from COVID-19 and Afghanistan to getting on Air Force One last Friday leaving behind the pained infrastructure legislation impasse.

His meeting with Pope Francis was stunning, and even the politicians at the G20 seemed in a good mood, with Biden and President Macron shaking hands and a general agreement to a minimum tax.

President Joe Biden sits across from Pope Francis, 
Oct. 29, 2021 | Vatican News via YouTube

G20 leaders toss coins during a visit to the Trevi Fountain in Rome, 
Oct. 31, 2021 | Jeff J. Mitchell/Getty Images