President Joe Biden speaks at a news conference following the NATO Summit in Washington, July 11, 2024. Photo:
Susan Walsh/APPresident Biden’s poor debate performance has cost his campaign 3 points in the last two weeks. He was tied with Donald Trump in mid-June. On July 11, before this weekend’s assassination attempt Biden was facing an historic loss of the popular vote that Democrats haven’t faced since W. Bush beat John Kerry in 2004.
All six of the battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin now lean toward Trump, several by more than 4 points (Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia).
Biden must have at least 3, most likely Wisconsin (-2), Michigan (-1), and Pennsylvania (-4).
Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average drawn from RealClear Politics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallop, and other credible polls.
Although Biden and his allies have struggled to address the age issue, the Democrats fear of a triple sweep has kept pressure on Biden to surrender the nomination. The convention is now scheduled to start August 19 with the nomination vote on Wednesday.
The primary purpose of America’s political parties is to compete for political office. Facing a potential massive loss, especially to Trump and his MAGA Republican Party, has panicked Democratic elected officials and made it difficult for Biden to unite the party and shift attention to Trump. Especially difficult is that 75 or 85 percent of voters in two post-debate polls (NY Times/WSJ) believe he is too old for the presidency, including more than half of Democrats.
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