Thursday, April 4, 2024

One Point Presidential Race

Joe Biden has narrowed the 4-point gap he had with Donald Trump in January down to one point on the RCP average at the end of March.

In spite of the improvement, Biden is still in trouble and if the election were today he would lose. The pattern between Democrats and Trump since 2016 has been they win the popular vote substantially (3 million or 2% in 2016 and 7 million or 4.5% in 2020) and win or lose the electoral vote close. Today, along with not being ahead in the popular vote, local polling in battleground states shows Biden improving but still behind by 3 or more points in a 5 of 7 states.

The Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallop, and other credible polls.

2024 Presidential polling average

Democrats’ other problem is the third-party candidacies of Robert Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein. They are taking a more votes from Biden than Trump – a 2-point gap when third parties are included.

Democrats have made progress but have a long way to go to reduce pre-November anxiety.

Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is It Over? January 3, 2024
Biden Narrows Gap February 27, 2024

No comments: