Wednesday, January 3, 2024

Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is It Over?

TrumpFormer President Donald Trump | AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall

The 2024 Republican Convention will be in Milwaukee in mid-July. You may remember 2020. The Convention wandered around North Carolina, Florida, and D.C. Donald Trump finally gave his acceptance speech on the South Lawn. This year, the nominee needs 1,234 to win and the process will begin on January 15 in Iowa, will it wrap up on March 5, Super Tuesday?

  • Trump is leading his main rivals in polls by 30 points. But his favorability is still at record lows; he is under indictment and led the party to defeats in 2018, 2020, and 2022.
  • In Iowa, he’s ahead of a tied Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, and the January 23 New Hampshire lineup today is Trump, Haley, and Chris Christie.
  • Can Donald Trump be stopped before the July convention? Haley had momentum but stumbled on a question about the Civil War, and in any event the entire field is way behind in a party Trump has control of.

This blog will begin a regular commentary and polling watch of the nominations – On to Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

The Presidential Polls
Running polling average drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website and other credible polls.

Ciruli Polling Review 2024 Presidential Election - December 31, 2023

Like the contest in 2016, when the choice was between two candidates with high unfavorable ratings in 2024 both party frontrunners (Trump and Biden) have around 40 percent public approval and 55 percent disapproval. A recent AP/NORC poll (12-14-23) shows more than half of the electorate is dissatisfied with the choice of Trump or Biden.

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