Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Biden Narrows Gap

In the last month, President Biden has narrowed his voter gap with former President Trump from 4 points to 2 points but he is still behind. (Down 48% to 44% on January 30 to 46% to 44% on February 27) As the month ended, Trump was able to revel in the South Carolina win and his designation as the presumptive nominee.

Also, national polls show Biden is still losing more support to third-party candidates than Trump. He’s behind Trump 4 points when third-party candidates are included (RFK receives 14%). (See figure below)

The Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallop, and other credible polls.

Ciruli Polling Review
2024 Presidential Election - February 27, 2024

Democrats mostly remain optimistic if not confident that the race is winnable. Forty percent of South Carolina Republicans voted for Nikki Haley, preferring an alternative to Trump.

The economy is improving, Trump induced chaos in the House, the backlash from his provocative talk about NATO and various legal skirmishes were big February news, helping Biden and Haley and keeping Trump on the defensive.

Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. (February 14, 2024)

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