Since the Afghanistan withdrawal (last day 8-30), Biden and Democrats have been on defense. The conventional wisdom is that it is both rare to recover from a pre-midterm approval swoon and near impossible from a presidential drop in the low 40 percent range. But, these are volatile times and President Biden could recover the public’s approval if the major concerns voters now have lessened and Democrats deliver on some promises.
Key issues hurting Biden and Democrats that need resolution:
- Both COVID-19 and its variants may taper off by the spring
- The economy remains strong, supply distribution problems repaired soon and inflation lessened in the spring
- Congressional Democrats finally deliver a legislative product, which liberals will declare transformative and most centrists will see as moderate due to the scaled-down cost
Democrats tend to rally to their president as an election gets closer. Independents may shift as the election becomes a choice between returning to 2020 turmoil or moving on.