The Buzz

Thursday, August 29, 2024

Harris Takes the Lead

Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on stage during a campaign event on August 6, 2024 in Philadelphia. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

In an extraordinary turnaround, Kamala Harris has surged into a close lead over Donald Trump in slightly over 30 days after becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee. President Joe Biden was behind two points on the date he left the race, July 21. In the month, Harris has picked a vice-president and delivered a well-regarded acceptance speech at a national convention with 26 million viewers. On August 29, she held a 2 point lead in the RCP average and 3 points in 538 (ABC News). Harris and Trump now split the battleground states, with Harris ahead in 2, Trump 3, and 2 tied. The aggregate battleground vote is tied at 47 percent each.

Robert Kennedy Jr. dropped his failed campaign effort and endorsed Trump on Friday, August 23. Prior to RFK Jr.'s switch, Harris was beating Trump by two points in 5 party tests including Kennedy. The effect of Kennedy and the Democratic convention bump is just beginning to be polled and assessed.

Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallup, and other credible polls.

The campaign has only about two months left, with some early voting starting in October. A debate is tentatively scheduled September 10 and Harris must deal with a press corps hungry for interviews but Democrats clearly have momentum and a fresh enthusiasm.

Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on stage during a campaign event on August 6, 2024 in Philadelphia. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Wednesday, August 28, 2024

The Rush to November 5 Begins

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

In an election that has more twists and turns than Independence Pass, the 2024 campaign enters its final two months. A series of panel discussions with Colorado's top political analysts and commentators starts September 6 with an 8:30 a.m. First Friday Breakfast panel. It will bring together Floyd Ciruli, Senior Fellow at the CU Denver School of Public Affairs moderating a panel of Colorado political experts.

Other panels are on:

October 4 - First Friday Breakfast: Latinx Voters: Hold Sway
October 11 - Afternoon event: The Colorado Ballot: Seismic Decisions
October 25 - Afternoon event: Disinformation and the Perils of Election Administration
November 8 - First Friday Breakfast: Election 2024: What Happened and What Lies Ahead

All events are held at

CU Denver School of Public Affairs
1380 Lawrence St., 2nd Floor
Denver, Colorado

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs' website for more information here.

Reversal: Democrats Ahead in Electoral Vote

Vice President Harris and Democrats are now ahead of former President Donald Trump and Republicans 226 to 219 electoral votes with 93 rated toss-up. In Sabato's Crystal Ball latest analysis (August 20, 2024), the toss-up states are Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (18), Nevada (8), Arizona (11) and North Carolina (16). The race remains close but Harris has rapidly and significantly changed the electoral map. Polling can barely stay abreast with the frequent changes in the election environment. RealClearPolitics analysis still has Trump ahead 219 to 208 for Harris with 111 electoral votes to be decided.

Crystal Ball Electoral College rating

Sabato records a major reversal from 312 electoral votes in mid-July for Trump to 219 at the end of August, while Democrats climbed from 196 to 226. Both parties are short of the 270 needed to win but the Democrats now have a much better prospect. Sabato's next electoral map will be post-convention and could present more good news for the Democrats.

RELATED:
Democrats Go into Convention in Big Hole July 23, 2024

Tuesday, August 27, 2024

Election 2024: Colorado and Country at a Crossroads

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On September 6, the CU Denver School of Public Affairs will host a panel of Colorado political experts: Election 2024: Colorado and the Country at a Crossroads. Floyd Ciruli, pollster and Senior Fellow, will moderate with commentators and party activists Dick Wadhams, Republican, Sheila McDonald, Democrat, and reporter Marianne Goodland.

The First Friday Breakfast will consider the changes in the national race as they affect control of Congress and Colorado's key Congressional and legislative races. The fate of the state's most contentious ballot propositions will also be examined.

Election 2024: Colorado and Country at Crossroads sponsored by the UC Denver School of Public Affairs.

Floyd Ciruli, Panel Moderator Senior Fellow, CU Denver School of Public Affairs

Panel:
Sheila MacDonald, media commentator, Democratic political consultant, manager of candidate and issue campaigns
Dick Wadhams, media commentator, Channel 4 analyst, consultant, former Republican chair
Marianne Goodland, chief legislative reporter, Colorado Politics, president of the Denver Press Club

Sheila MacDonald, Dick Wadhams, Marianne Goodland and Floyd Ciruli

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs' website for more information here.

"Election 2024: Colorado and the Country at a Crossroads"
September 6, 2024 8:30 a.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200 Denver, Colorado

Friday, August 16, 2024

Sales Tax Collection Falls Again

For the first six months of 2024, Denver metro area sales tax revenue has fallen compared to last year. This is the second year of weak sales tax collections. In 2023 it was flat from the year before.

Cities are especially dependent on sales tax revenue. A number of them, especially Denver, have been rapidly increasing their sales tax for a myriad of community projects.

It is unclear the exact cause of the revenue fall off. Metro population growth slowed after the pandemic and, in fact some counties registered population loses. Affordability has been cited most often by metro area residents as their main economic complaint and a reason to leave. Also, the Denver area could be seeing some of the job growth slowdown reflected in national data guiding the Federal Reserve.

RELATED:
Denver Metro Sales Tax Revenue Declines June 24, 2024
Metro Denver Sales Tax Flattens Out March 13, 2024
Denver Metro Area Tax Revenue Slows Sharply October 2, 2023
Midpoint in the Year Sales Tax Revenue Roars In September 22, 2021

Tuesday, August 13, 2024

Was It a Coup? KHOW 630

U.S. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris raise their hands during an Independence Day celebration in Washington, U.S., July 4, 2024.
REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo

The debate about how Joe Biden came to his July 21 withdrawal continues. Was it an unjustified anti-democratic coup against Biden. Conspiracy theories abound. Even Donald Trump appears flummoxed and of course disappointed since he wanted Biden in the race.

In an interview with Ryan Schuiling on KHOW 630 we discussed Joe Biden's weekend withdrawal after the painful 24-day defense President Biden tried to make after his disastrous debate performance. My view was that Biden truly did not understand his performance had focused the narrative of the race on his major vulnerability – competence, and reinforced his age problem with voters.

Most important for Democrats were doubts about his ability to engage Donald Trump and conduct a winning campaign. While the problem was self-evident to pollsters and party elected officials and leaders, Biden, his family and top aids isolated and cherry-picked polling data to avoid the reality.

Facing a similar dire situation in 1952, Harry Truman only took 18 days after not winning the New Hampshire primary to withdraw and LBJ only needed 19 days in 1968. Biden created this crisis by pressing for reelection in spite of approval polls below 40 percent and consistently running behind Trump with his age and shaky performances cited as major handicaps to his campaign.

Kamala Harris was quickly accepted as the nominee because the party did not want to continue the chaos, especially after Trump's assassination attempt and the Republicans' generally successful convention.

The history of parties controlling the White House making a switch in nominees and winning the election is not good. Republican Presidents Eisenhower and Nixon followed Democrats Truman and LBJ. Harris will need to establish her own presidential image while initially inheriting Biden's polling numbers. But, with the age issue gone, Harris, focusing on women, people of color, and younger voters, may re-energize the Democrats.

Monday, August 12, 2024

Denver Voters Inundated with Tax and Union Ballot Initiatives

As of August, nine ballot measures have been proposed in Denver and several, including another city sales tax increase for housing and a billion-dollar school bond initiative, are being prepared for introduction.

Denver's liberal politics and interest groups are flooding the city with tax increases, unionization proposals, cultural proposals such as bans of fur sales and a slaughterhouse.

Sample of Proposals
- Binding arbitration for fire department union
- Collective bargaining for city employees
- Denver Health sales tax increase
- Affordable housing sales tax increase (proposed)
- Denver Public School bond (proposed)

If all the taxes pass, Denver sales tax will be the highest among the metro area cities. In 2000, Denver gave 62 percent of its vote to the Democratic candidate for president (Al Gore) and 79 percent in 2020 (Joe Biden). Denver has become a liberal one-party city with little leadership that resists new taxes and regulations even if they could harm citizens cost of living and the city’s economy.