Denver and Colorado Elections – 2021 KOA Interview

April Zesbaugh, Floyd Ciruli, Marty Lenz

Will the expected low turnout election make a difference in the outcome? Where are the major fights? In a Monday morning conversation with KOA’s April Zesbaugh and Marty Lenz, the November 2 election highlights were reviewed.

Turnout will likely be about 1.5 million statewide, half the amount during a presidential election, which in 2020 was 3.2 million in Colorado. Only 600,000 had voted as of last Friday (10-29).

In off-year elections, such as 2019, Colorado voters appear to be more conservative, defeating a TABOR override in 2019. Denver in that same election voted 83 percent against an initiative to expand homeless camping rights. This year, Denver will vote to enforce a very strict anti-camping ban. During the conversation, Marty announced a Denver judge had just ruled the ban’s enforcement mechanism infringed on the city authority to carry out “administrative functions.” I was not certain of the effect of the ruling. Many voters had already been told of questionable legality of the initiative and they are simply angry the homeless problem appears to be getting worse, not better, after numerous programs and spending.

Education will be one of the biggest topics in the election, with school boards around the state facing expensive fights over board seats. The traditional battles between teacher unions and reformers, who prefer charter schools and performance measures, have been augmented by national issues, such as masks, vaccinations, mandates and quarantines.

Statewide Initiative 119 would raise marijuana taxes for enhanced education programming for public secondary schoolchildren. It would raise the marijuana tax by 5 percent. Although it has bipartisan support, some educators have opposed it saying the benefits are too ill-defined. Education tends to be a popular item and Colorado municipal voters have been supporting marijuana taxes frequently in recent years.

Read: 
Denver Post: Denver judge strikes down key component of camping ban ordinance two days before election
The Buzz: Will the Denver camping ban pass by 80%?
The Buzz: Lower Turnout in Off-Year Races

Lower Turnout in Off-Year Races

People jump as community members give comments 
against mask  mandates during a Douglas County Board
of Education meeting in Castle Rock, Aug. 24, 2021
Photo: AAron Ontiveroz/Denver Post 

Colorado’s November 2nd mail-back voting finally crossed a half a million (552,807) on Thursday (10-28-21). The modest turnout is typical of off-year elections. In 2019, when two statewide initiatives were voted on in a split decision – “no” to a TABOR override and a bare “yes” to sports gaming for water funding – only 1,550,000 voted versus a presidential turnout of more than 3 million in 2020.

But even this lower interest election is being pulled into the rather bitter national political debates. Colorado’s polarized school board races of the past few years have heated up this year with vaccine mandates, masks and critical race theory arguments. Douglas County is in the forefront, but reflecting races in other counties. Denver’s and Aurora’s expensive school board battles are mostly around traditional union versus non-union and left versus less left candidates.

Tents line Pearl Street and 16th Avenue in Denver,
Dec. 1, 2020 | Hart Van Denburg/CPR News

Also, several municipal elections are all-out fights over homelessness (Denver) and the new young socialist-type candidates running for office versus newly assertive moderate business and Republican groups running candidates (Aurora).

Denver’s turnout in 2019 was 162,000, a little more than 10 percent of the state total. As of Friday, 45,000 had voted, only 7 percent of the state total, but Denver tends to vote late. In its last off-year elections, it took its usual liberal position and voted in favor of both initiatives, the TABOR override and sports gaming.

Biden’s Approval Drops to Low 40s

Since the Afghanistan withdrawal (last day 8-30), Biden and Democrats have been on defense. The conventional wisdom is that it is both rare to recover from a pre-midterm approval swoon and near impossible from a presidential drop in the low 40 percent range. But, these are volatile times and President Biden could recover the public’s approval if the major concerns voters now have lessened and Democrats deliver on some promises.

Key issues hurting Biden and Democrats that need resolution:

• Both COVID-19 and its variants may taper off by the spring
• The economy remains strong, supply distribution problems repaired soon and inflation lessened in the spring
• Congressional Democrats finally deliver a legislative product, which liberals will declare transformative and most centrists will see as moderate due to the scaled-down cost

Democrats tend to rally to their president as an election gets closer. Independents may shift as the election becomes a choice between returning to 2020 turmoil or moving on.

See The Buzz:
Biden’s Opening Approval 55%, Trump’s 44%
Biden Has a Honeymoon
Biden Holds His Approval
Difficult Midterm Elections Shapes Biden’s 100-Day Strategy
Biden Maintains Approval, Country in Better Mood
The House is Lost for Democrats?
Biden Collapses with Kabul. Can He Recover?

Denver Sales Tax Revenue Continues Strong Year-to-Date Growth

The seven-county Denver metropolitan area economy continues to generate record-breaking sales tax revenue with 18 percent year-to-date growth through August. Each one percent of sales tax has produced $490,000,000 as of August. Sales tax revenue’s strongest months are the last quarter of the year with holiday shopping. Thus far, the Colorado economy has not been slowed with Covid, labor shortages, supply delays or inflation. Will it stay healthy for the rest of the year? It appears to have considerable momentum.

See: Regional Sales Tax Revenue Continues to Grow as Economy Surges

Is American Democracy at the Tipping Point?

If Trump “makes a successful return to the presidency in 2024, democracy’s done.” (There is Nothing for You Here. Finding Opportunity in the 21st Century, Fiona Hill, Politico interview).

“The destruction of democracy might not come until November 2024, but critical steps in that direction are happening now.” (“Our constitutional crisis is already here,” Robert Kagan, Washington Post column)

“Like an installment of a deathless Marvel franchise, for all its spectacle ‘Peril’ ends with a dismaying sense of prologue.” (Peril, Bob Woodward and Robert Costa, New York Times review)

American news media, opinion pages and talk shows have taken up the danger to democracy posed by the domestic and international trend toward authoritarianism. In the U.S., it’s been an ongoing theme, at least since the January 6 insurrection, and is subject to a flood of books and opinion essays corresponding to the ongoing investigation of January 6 and the renewed 2024 ambition of former President Donald Trump.

The nation’s top public opinion analysts agree that the public perceives a danger to democracy. Also, many harbor beliefs that challenge democratic norms and the system. For example, as the writers above reference, Trump’s election fraud position is becoming the Republican Party’s platform.

• CNN Poll: Most Americans feel democracy is under attack in the U.S. – 56% democracy under attack, 51% believe elected officials likely to overturn results if their party doesn’t win.
• Reuters/Ipsos: 53% of Republicans believe Trump is “true president.” 61% believe election was stolen from Trump.
• Pew Poll: A majority of Republicans want Trump to be a party leader – 44% want him to run again. 63% say party should not accept Republican-elected leaders who openly criticize Trump.
• Gallup Poll: People are losing trust in democratic judgement – only 55% trust fellow citizens to decide important issues, down from 78% in 2006. Only a third (36%) have confidence in the media, few Republicans – 11%.

Will the Denver Camping Ban Pass by 80%?

Tents line Pearl Street and 16th Avenue in Denver,
Dec. 1, 2020 | Hart Van Denburg/CPR News

Denver is a very liberal city. It gave Joe Biden 80 percent of its vote in 2020, but it may be headed for a revolt over widespread homeless camps.

In 2019, Denver voters crushed by 83 percent an effort by homeless advocates to legalize public camping. In 2020, city voters approved a 0.25 percent tax increase for the homeless, but the problem hardly receded, rather it grew more visible, requiring more dramatic actions, such as a ban on camping in the Civic Center. However, homeless camps appear to simply move to other sidewalks, vacant lots and parks. In reaction, Initiative 303 has been placed on the ballot. It would enforce a camping ban on private property, with property owners holding the city legally liable if they don’t take action. In response, many city leaders and civic groups are opposing it. The sponsor is the head of the out-of-power Republican Party in Denver. But if it passes, it will be a sign of a full-scale revolt over homelessness in Denver.

The homeless isn’t the only challenge bedeviling Denver’s political establishment. A host of other city initiatives are being resisted by proposals on the November ballot that could open the 2023 city council and mayor’s races to a wild moment in the city’s political history.

Nov. 2, 2021 Municipal Elections

• 2E – National Western arena - $190 million. Although most of the bond package may pass since Denver voters have a history of approval, but the arena is struggling. And even a million-dollar campaign may not pass it, causing another blow to the mayor and political establishment.
• 2F – Ban group living quarters in residential areas. If voters reject the city’s effort to densify and spread group treatment facilities to various neighborhoods, it will be a powerful rebuke of City Council and the planners and advocates they follow.
• 303 Ban camping on private property and limit it on city land. As discussed above, if this passes, especially by a significant margin, expect the next wave of Denver city candidates to re-orient themselves around the issue as groups and politicians adopting the “progressive” label have to play defense.

These three issues will indicate if Denver continues its progressive direction or shifts to the right on some issues.

See: Denver November Ballot Turmoil

Congratulations to the Denver Art Museum for a Renovation Accomplished

Under the leadership of the Denver Art Museum’s board and management team, an incredible $175 million restoration of the 50-year-old Ponti building and the new Martin Building and Sie Welcome Center has been completed during the pandemic. The citizens of Denver contributed $35 million in bonds and private donors raised $140 million more for the project led by Lanny (board of trustee chair since 2013) and Sharon Martin and the Sie Family.

With new exhibit and visitor space, classrooms and a restaurant, the expanded museum will allow an enhanced display of the permanent collection. It is a major addition to downtown Denver’s arts complex and visitor experiences. The Museum’s director, Christoph Heinrich, announced the public welcoming grand opening October 24.

Well done Denver.

Northwest Indigenous exhibit at the Lanny and Sharon Martin
Building, Oct. 7, 2021 | Rebecca Slezak/The Denver Post

The new Sie Welcome Center at Denver Art Museum,
 Oct. 7, 2021 | Rebecca Slezak/The Denver Post

Read The Denver Post: Inside Denver Art Museum’s $175 million makeover, which opens this month