Absence Makes the Heart Grow Fonder

As the Affordable Care Act (ACA) has become less “Obamacare” and more in danger of disappearing, it has become more popular.

As ACA repeal appears near, the public is shifting toward more affection for it. Several recent polls show its popularity, never very high since its passage in 2010, is now even between the public’s approval and disapproval (45% to 45%). That reflects a shift to the positive side since January of this year. The ACA has been more than 10 points negative since 2013 in the Wall Street Journal/NBC polls and is now 43 percent “good idea” to 41 percent “bad idea.”

As Barack Obama’s ownership of it fades with his retirement, the “care” part of the act has become more valuable. Its value is highlighted as congressional Republicans are struggling for a replacement. The political risk is unavoidable when hundreds of citizens and activists show up at town meetings warning of the consequences of repeal leaving large numbers of people with inadequate or no health insurance.

The number of persons wanting to repeal the law in its entirety in this poll was only 24 percent, with an equal number, 26 percent, wanting to expand it. Twelve percent want to keep it as is. The balance of power with 27 percent was those who just want to repeal parts of it.

Bannon’s Foreign Policy Blowback

Steve Bannon, President Trump’s foreign policy strategist, has set his goal to help bring a conservative nationalist revolt throughout the developed world. He applauded, as did his boss, Brexit, and his rhetorical flourishes in the inaugural address were hailed by most of Europe’s anti-immigrant, anti-EU nationalist parties.

But, his strategy is also producing a left-wing counter-reaction. Mexico’s next government may be on the left (Andrés Manuel López Obrador) and a German socialist is taking on the center-right party of Angela Merkel by attacking Donald Trump’s and Bannon’s America First rhetoric (Martin Schutz). An anti-Trump, center-left independent in France also has surged in recent days (Emmanuel Macron), as attacking Trump has become a survival strategy of pro-EU liberal forces in Europe and the left generally. Trump and Bannon are stimulating movement of European and Mexican politics at least as much on the left as the right.

Trump Starts 2020 Campaign

With the trip to 9,000 boisterous fans in Melbourne, Florida, President Trump started his re-election campaign. He told the audience: “I am here because I want to be among my friends and among the people.” He referred to them as part of the “truly great movement.”

Photo: Inquisitr.com

It was called a campaign event, and when asked on Air Force One if it was early to start a campaign, Trump said: “Life is a campaign. Making our country great again is a campaign.”

Trump is not the first president to start campaigning early. The permanent campaign as a term was first used in the Carter administration and certainly Reagan, Clinton and Obama made considerable use of the White House and presidential resources to prepare for re-election and try to build legislative support. But to announce it after only four weeks, partially as a reboot and an escape from the “swamp” of Washington, is unusual.

Numerous reasons were offered as to why to start campaigning four weeks into the start of an administration:

• He needed to recharge while escaping the troubles of D.C.
• He wants to maintain and charge up his base
• He wants to remind his party he’s the boss
• He can control crowd access by calling it a campaign event (keep out protesters)
• He wants to continue to get his message out around the media while attacking them (They have replaced Clinton)

Starting the campaign early also has to do with Trump’s insecurity over his legitimacy. He lost the popular vote in a narrow Electoral College win. From the size of his inaugural crowd, to 3 to 5 million illegal voters, to the denial of Russian involvement, Trump spends immense amounts of mental energy on shoring up the authenticity of his election. Nothing will treat this insecurity as effectively as winning a popular and Electoral College victory in 2020.

Read Politico: Four weeks into his presidency, Trump returns to campaign mode

Two Elections: Trump Wins Battlegrounds, Clinton Wins the Rest

Out of more than 136 million votes cast, Donald Trump won the Electoral College (304 to 227, or 77 votes), with a margin of 78,000 votes in three states: Pennsylvania (44,000) (20 electors), Wisconsin (23,000) (10) and Michigan (11,000) (16). But, he was the fifth president to win the electoral vote and not the popular vote.

Two elections took place November 8. Trump won 13 swing states as computed by Charlie Cook on his website by about 800,000 votes (Trump won 8 and Clinton won 5). But, he lost the popular vote in the remaining 37 states and D.C. by 3.7 million votes, leaving him behind by 2.9 million.

U.S. presidential politics is a blend of votes and geography. Much of Clinton’s advantage came from a handful of states and large cities. Greater Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, D.C., and Atlanta delivered overflow votes. But, Democrats’ urban strength did not make up for the Trump solidarity in the white working class and voters in small towns and rural areas. Philadelphia, Atlanta and Miami did not deliver Pennsylvania, Georgia or Florida.

Democrats swept California by 61 percent, or more than 4 million votes. But their overflow voters in California was superfluous. The significant concentration of the Democrats in a handful of states led to the Electoral College failure and contributes to their weak position in the House of Representatives.

Trump Approval Weak, But Better on Economy Than Foreign Policy

RealClearPolitics keeps a running average of presidential approval, and as well reported, Donald Trump has a net negative rating and record-low approval (44% approve to 50% disapprove). The polling website also tracks presidential approval on economic and foreign policy performances.

Although Trump’s economic performance approval isn’t particularly high, his negative rating is a low 41 percent.

Not surprising, on foreign policy his approval is only 39 percent and disapproval is a high 53 percent. It is foreign policy with the roll-out of the refugee ban, the war of words with Mexico over the wall and paying for it, and sacking General Flynn that has produced the most negative headlines. Even with his well-regarded cabinet appointments at state and defense, there appears to be a divergence in policy with Trump on the EU, NATO, Russia and Iraq oil. Foreign policy was also the area that garnered the most resistance during the campaign from the establishment of both parties. And, it’s the area Trump is seen as the least experienced and most ill-suited in terms of temperament, with several highly opinioned unorthodox advisors (Bannon, Miller, Flynn, Gorka).

Trump has the jobs message down. It is foreign policy where his message sounds mostly confused and risky.

Senate Elections in 2018 – Major Challenge for Democrats

Democrats’ weaknesses in the interior of the country will be on full display in the 2018 election. They would like to pick up the three senate seats they missed in 2018 (would have needed 2 if Clinton/Keane had won) to control the Senate. But out of the 33 seats up, they must defend 25 (including their 2 independents) and many are in the heartland where Donald Trump did well.

Republicans have only one seat out of 8 in a state Hillary Clinton won – Nevada and Democrats will target it. Democrats will also challenge Jeff Flake, who only won with 49 percent in the 2012 race, but it will still be difficult for them to win Arizona (Trump carried it by 4 points). They will likely take on Ted Cruz in Texas, another difficult win, but they hope he’s vulnerable with his endless shifting position on Trump and changes in the state’s demographics.

But Republican opportunities are huge. Democrats will be defending highly vulnerable seats won in President Obama’s 2012 re-election. Five of those states were carried by Mitt Romney that year. Last year, Donald Trump won them and the Republicans will target them.

Also, a few states Trump won (but not Romney) will be put on the target list, including Florida (Nelson), Ohio (Brown), Pennsylvania (Casey), Wisconsin (Baldwin) and Michigan (Stabenow).

Obviously, Trump’s popularity will be a factor, but if he holds his base and most Republicans, Democrats will be playing more defense than offense in these senate seats. The Democratic Party’s Beltway leadership and messaging has not been appealing to a majority of voters in the states with vulnerable senators. Will the Democrats move off the coasts and out of the big cities to challenge Republicans with the working class voters in rural areas and smaller towns or lose these senators?

U.S. Senate | i1os.com

Gorsuch Remains Calm Moment in Chaotic First Three Weeks

A new poll reaffirms what conversations from Wall Street to main streets, Capitol Hill to state capitols repeat: Even if you like some of Donald Trump’s policies and cabinet picks, the White House is a chaotic mess. The Flynn resignation is just the most dramatic incident in three out-of-control weeks.

But the selection of Neil Gorsuch Tuesday, February 1, was a calm moment in a sea of turmoil, which most Republicans would like to see repeated and polling seems to agree. Gorsuch has a 51 percent approval in a new national poll (Feb. 3-36, 2017) with 39 percent disapproving. The latest Gallup poll has President Trump at 40 percent approval and 55 percent disapproval, a drop in Gallup numbers over the three weeks of 15 points.