It’s All Get-Out-the-Vote

The election narrative is locked in. Few new attacks, WikiLeaks, etc. will be covered by the mainstream media. Most people have factored those issues into their decision. The story now is tactics. Are the candidates and parties getting out their supporters?

The Democrats are putting their top team into the field to push their voter turnout. Bill Clinton, Bernie Sanders and John Hickenlooper are in action. Democrats have felt confident about Colorado, but recognize the race has tightened and GOTV is essential.

• Bill Clinton – Friday, Pueblo, Denver and Fort Collins
• John Hickenlooper – GOTV bus tour from Denver to Grand Junction starts Thursday and ends Monday in the metro area
• Bernie Sanders – Saturday, Colorado Springs
• Chelsea Clinton – Thursday, Boulder, other stops

Republicans aren’t lacking in effort. Mike Pence made his fifth visit to the Larimer-Weld area on Thursday.

See KDVR article: Mike Pence, Chelsea Clinton hold rallies in Colorado

More Than Half the Vote is In

As of Thursday night, 1.5 million votes were turned into county clerks and the Secretary of State’s system.

In 2012, 2.6 million voted. It was projected that 2.8 million could vote this year due to growth in population and registered voters since 2012. If the estimate is correct, county clerks are going to have a busy final five days processing more than one million ballots that have to be dropped off by Tuesday at 7:00 pm.

If voter turnout is below estimate, Donald Trump is the most vulnerable. Hillary Clinton won the early vote, but was struggling with late votes. Trump desperately needs the late vote.

The latest turnout report has Republicans catching up to Democrats, but still lagging (7,000 votes) since mail-back voting started on October 19.

See:
Colorado Secretary of State’s (11-4-16) report here
The Buzz: Will Colorado turnout hit 3 million voters?
The Buzz: Colorado presidential vote

Election 2016 Fallout: National and International Ramifications

Dean Christopher Hill and professor and pollster, Floyd Ciruli, will analyze the election results and the effect of politics and policy of the U.S.

• Were the polls and pundits right? Hits, misses and biggest surprise.
• Will the new president and Congress beat the gridlock?
• Will the Republican Party heal? Can the Democrats avoid a split? Is a third or fourth party on the horizon?
• Is the post-Obama foreign policy more interventionist? Is confrontation likely? What challenge is addressed first?
• Syria and Iraq
• Russian and China expansions
• North Korea
• Iran
• Pending trade agreements
• Immigration
• Was the conflict in the American campaign indicative of the future of center-right and center-left governments throughout the West?
• Will protectionism, isolationism and nativism dominate 2017 politics?
• Is western democracy in crises?

Join the discussion on November 9 at Maglione Hall in the new Sie wing of the Korbel School on the DU campus (2201 S. Gaylord St., Ste 4005) from 5-7 pm. Food provided. RSVP to isdean@du.edu. 

Pueblo Chieftain Says No to Recreational Marijuana

In a long, thoughtful editorial, the Pueblo Chieftain recommended voting to end legalized recreational marijuana in Pueblo County.

The Chieftain listed the economic benefits, namely jobs and tax revenue, but cited the massive increase in the homeless population, vagrancy, panhandling, parking lot camping and tent cities. They also described the social cost for police protection and emergency room care due to recreational marijuana. Also, “60 Minutes” this weekend featured Pueblo’s marijuana industry with an emphasis on the negative impacts on infants, teenagers and driving while intoxicated.

Expansion and taxation of recreational marijuana is on the ballot throughout Colorado this election. Has the spread of recreational marijuana reached a resistance point? Are voters for more or less?

El Paso Voters in Good Mood; Growth Biggest Problem

Like residents in the Denver metro area, El Paso County voters believe their area is moving in the right direction. Sixty-two percent of El Paso voters and 60 percent of metro voters see their respective areas moving in the right direction.

El Paso voters believe the “most important issue to deal with in next few years” is connected to growth. A near majority (47%) of voters cited growth-related issues, such as traffic congestion (35%), just “too much growth” (9%) or affordable housing (2%) as most important.

Crime-related issues were in second place (28%), including marijuana use, sales and dispensaries (7%); homelessness (6%); and police problems, shootings (3%). The final larger categories were local government issues, such as pensions and benefits (4%), and high taxes (4%), and the economy and jobs (13%).

The survey was conducted by Ciruli Associates for the Colorado Springs Gazette with 600 likely voters on October 18. The margin of error was ±4.0 percentage points.

Raise the Bar Passing in El Paso County

Amendment 71, called Raise the Bar, which will make it much more difficult to amend the state constitution, is passing in El Paso County, with strong support from Republicans. The survey conducted for the Colorado Springs Gazette (600 sample, Oct. 18) shows 65 percent of voters approved Amendment 71, with 71 percent of Republicans, but only 51 percent of Democrats in support.

When joined with the 53 percent overall support in the Denver metro area (late September poll), Raise the Bar appears to have sufficient support to pass statewide.

Dan Njegomir of The Gazette writes:

By a 3-to-1 margin, those surveyed said they would vote for a constitutional amendment making it harder to amend the state constitution. The campaign for Amendment 71, which 65 percent of respondents said they support, has strong political and financial backing from Colorado's most prominent business groups as well as leading luminaries in the state Republican Party.

"It is the Republican establishment that is helping pass this," Ciruli said, "and Democrats are more ambivalent." (10-25-16)

Trump, Glenn Winning El Paso County – But is it Enough?

In a new Ciruli Associates poll for the Colorado Springs Gazette, Republican Donald Trump and hometown U.S. Senate candidate, Darryl Glenn, are winning El Paso County voters. Not surprising in the Republican-rich county, but their margin may be too small to win the state. Trump is receiving 50 percent to Hillary Clinton’s 32 percent. Glenn receives 51 percent of voter support to Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet’s 35 percent.

In a four-way race, Trump has 47 percent, Clinton 30, and the two main independent candidates split 10 points (Gary Johnson and Jill Stein).

In recent history, statewide Republican candidates receive about 60 percent of the El Paso County vote. If forms an essential component in their statewide vote.

See The Gazette:  Trump and Glenn widely favored by El Paso County voters in new Gazette poll