U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. President Donald Trump, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick attend a cabinet meeting in the Cabinet Room at the White House, in Washington, D.C., U.S., on May 27, 2026. Evan Vucci/ReutersOur end-of-the-year recap reported: Despite the drama and chaos, the DOW ended the year up 13 points. The third year of double-digit returns (up 12.9 points in 2024 and 13.7 in 2023). The S&P grew 16 points and the NASDAQ composite up 20, mostly driven by the AI investment boom.
We predicted churn. And indeed the war in Iran, accompanied by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, has featured the DOW bouncing more than 9 times around 50,000. It hit 10,000 at the start of the century (1999), then 30,000 in 2020 as the President Donald Trump first term was ending and President Joe Biden about to start. After a volatile period in the early 2020’s, it crossed to 40,000 in March 2024 as Biden began his fraught final campaign. After a brief 21 months, the DOW gained 10,000 points and crossed 50,000 on February 8, 2020.
As long as corporate earnings hold and interest rates and inflation data don’t accelerate, AI investment may continue to drive it upward. As of Friday, May 29, it is now at 51,000.
Trump has always depended on market increases to boost his popularity, but today as the market has increased this year his poll numbers have collapsed to record lows (60% disapproval, 36% approval FPO). His problem is the market is missing voter economic anxiety and growing dislike of him and his administration's performance.
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