Presidential Debates and Moderators; More at Stake Than Usual

The presidential debates’ dates, locations and moderators are set. The usual rule has been they can reinforce trends, but don’t change the directions of elections. But this year is different.

Personality-driven politics with two frontrunners highly disliked by even many of their supporters means confrontation, especially the first one could make a difference. Donald Trump will lose this race unless he can change the dynamics. He needs a major win in a debate. And, the debates will be the key events shaping the next 60 days.

The polls that will be used to determine the debate participants are:

ABC – Washington Post
CBS – New York Times
CNN – Opinion Research Corporation
Fox News
NBC – Wall Street Journal

They were selected on the basis of the reputation and resources they have available.

See Business Insider: Here are the presidential debate moderators

Coffman vs. Carroll – 6th CD

It was assumed the Sixth Congressional District race was going to be competitive, and Congressman Mike Coffman was slated to win it. But presidential-level turnout and Donald Trump make this one of the most competitive House races in the country. It’s also one of the most expensive. Nancy Pelosi is raising money for Democrat Morgan Carroll, along with the full panoply of Democratic Party interest groups. And, they are being met by Americans for Prosperity and Paul Ryan’s Republican House campaign committee. More than three million is reported, with an edge for Coffman.

The key factors are:

• Presidential-level turnout in very competitive district will help Democrats. Expect at least 70,000 more voters over 2014. Barack Obama carried the district in 2012 by five points, and Democrats almost won it with an unknown candidate.
• Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton may produce fewer Republican ticket-splitters. If Clinton wins by as much or more than Obama in 2012, Coffman may be in deep trouble.
• This could be a good year for women candidates with Clinton carrying women by a wide margin (all women 53% to 34% Trump, white women 53% to 34% Trump, last Quinnipiac poll). Morgan Carroll is a high-profile woman politician who has won several local elections.

As stated to Rachel Sapin in the Aurora Sentinel (8-31-16):

Denver Political Analyst Floyd Ciruli said social issues surrounding women have mostly been in the background of this year’s presidential and congressional campaigns, but that doesn’t mean Coffman isn’t feeling the backlash of running on the same ticket as Donald Trump.

“Hillary Clinton is winning women voters, including white women voters much more than normal,” Ciruli said. “Partially it’s a reflection of a woman running for president, but more, it’s a reflection of Trump’s problems.

Read Aurora Sentinel: Coffman outpaces Carroll again in quarterly CD6 fundraising, holds big cash lead

Hickenlooper in Running for Cabinet Position

Interior is out due to John Hickenlooper’s position on fracking, but Commerce may be a possibility.

Elana Schor at Politico wrote a long item on Thursday (9-1-16) reviewing Hickenlooper’s issues with the Democratic Party’s far left on the environment, but described his generally positive reviews on receiving some position in a prospective Hillary Clinton’s cabinet. Commerce Secretary appeared a good fit.

Politico:

Floyd Ciruli, a veteran Colorado pollster and political analyst, noted that Hickenlooper's close ties to Clinton transition team leader Ken Salazar and Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), a superdelegate for the Democratic nominee, position the governor well for a Cabinet appointment. "He's an outsider, an entrepreneur, socially liberal but on energy and general market issues he tends toward the moderate side of things," Ciruli said. "That’s a good thing. That’s an asset."

Ciruli, the veteran Colorado pollster, pointed to Hickenlooper's multiple overseas trips as governor as evidence of his affinity for encouraging free trade and foreign investment. "He saw his role as a trade representative and went out a lot," Ciruli said. "He was seen as pretty successful at it."

Hickenlooper’s other advantages for an appointment are being well-thought of in the state and having an acceptable lieutenant governor. Morning Consult, a new online panel polling organization, did a 66,000 survey of the approval rating of all 50 state governors, and Hickenlooper was in the upper tier at 60 percent approval. He was ahead of Jerry Brown (57%), but behind his colleague in Utah, Gary Herbert (64%). Our neighbor to the north, Matt Mead, is near the top of the national list (67% approval).

It’s getting late for Mr. Trump

In spite of bringing in a new management team and beginning a professional campaign with targeted advertising and a more focused use of the candidate, the Trump campaign approaching Labor Day is behind in all the forecasts.

Donald Trump has also been getting help from his opponent’s non-response to a daily barrage of bad news on e-mails and the Clinton Foundation.

The main polls of polls (aggregators) have Trump behind from 4 points in 538 (Silver), to 7 points in Huffington Post and 5 in RealClearPolitics.

The forecasts see Clinton the likely winner, both in Colorado and nationally. As Nate Silver likes to point out, NFL kickers do miss from the 20 yard line, but not often.

If Trump does not show progress in the first wave of post-Labor Day polls, which will come out starting next weekend (Sept. 10-13), the narrative will be set that he’s in deep trouble very late in the campaign.

Read The Buzz: The Forecasts Begin

Where is Clinton? Campaign on Defensive as it Enters Labor Day Weekend.

A ground game does not make up for a lack of coherent strategy and message at the top. Hillary Clinton approaches Labor Day dropping in the polls and being beaten in the news cycle by Donald Trump.

Her lack of a response on the Clinton Foundation is increasing her negative ratings to record and Trump levels among disapproving supporters and wary independents. The endless email stories appear uncontrollable, but the failure to engage the press is unleashing a barrage of negative editorials and news leads that she is hiding.

As polls tighten, battleground states will be affected, including Colorado where she has enjoyed a double-digit lead due to her convention bounce and Trump’s two weeks in early August of stumbling around.

Trump is addressing his main weakness – appearing presidential. Restraining the off-beat outbursts helps as did the trip to Mexico. His targets are Republican and independent moderates who want some change and have problems with Clinton. But after the primaries and convention, they came to the conclusion that Trump did not have the temperament, knowledge or judgement to be president.

Significant numbers of voters are weighing what they consider their “regrettable choice.” Trump is desperately trying to shift the weights.

Clinton’s polling average has varied. A recent low was 3 points (mid-July), shortly after FBI Director Comey’s testimony on Clinton’s e-mail case, to a high in early August of 8 points. Today, the average has narrowed to a 5-point lead in RealClearPolitics and 7 points in Huffington Post.

See The Buzz: Clinton’s National Polling Lead Tightens as Republicans Pick Their Nominee

Will Water Infrastructure Get Funded?

Both presidential candidates are offering considerable support for infrastructure investments. The public believes water projects – both supply and quality – should be on the list.

The Colorado State Legislative Interim Committee reviewed the decline of state funding for water infrastructure due to lower gas and oil prices and a state court ruling hurting mineral severance tax revenue. But voters are concerned about water infrastructure. They want planning to continue and would consider a package of improvements in 2018.

The Pueblo Chieftain’s Chris Woodka reported on the legislative meeting August 25.

On the bright side, for water interests, state voters are supportive of spending money for planning, conservation, enhancement of river habitat, new water supplies and new storage projects, Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli told the committee. Those concepts have an 80-90 percent approval rating.

He cautioned the committee that sometimes those rosy numbers change by the time an actual measure is proposed, such as in 2003, when Referendum A was defeated in every Colorado county.

The $2 billion measure, which newspaper editorials branded a “blank check” showed early support among voters.

“A small passion against (a proposal) can grow to defeat,” Ciruli said.

Other polling results showed that attention has shifted to water quality from results of similar questions in 2013, when storage was more important because of an ongoing drought.

The survey also showed voters put more trust in local government than state, and far less in federal solutions.

“But the public is ready for implementation (of water projects),” he stressed.

U.S. Senate Leaning Democratic

Senator Michael Bennet is a very lucky politician. In what was projected to be a competitive race, he now has a walk. Labeled a likely Democratic hold by all the rating organizations and commentators, he is ahead by 13 points over Darryl Glenn in the current polling average.

Bennet beat out considerable competition to be appointed to the seat by Governor Bill Ritter in 2009 and survived a difficult Democratic year to win a narrow election in 2010. He could be serving the next six years with a Democratic president and a Democratic Senate (majority may need VP’s vote).

As of the end of August, Democrats have a good chance to pick up a seat in Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana. They are very competitive in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania and recent polls show a close race in North Carolina. Democrats need to hold Reid’s open seat in Nevada, which appears close. They need 5 seats if Hillary Clinton wins and 6 if Donald Trump wins.

Working for them is presidential turnout (tends to be more Democratic), the possibility Trump underperforms in many states with Republican senators at risk, and the simple fact Republicans have 24 seats to defend and the Democrats only have 10. The race to control the Senate, as of today, appears more competitive than the presidential race.