South Orange County has a couple of highly contested districts – one congressional, one state assembly – that are split between Orange and San Diego counties. The good news for Democrats is that the San Diego part of their district is much more Democratic in voting preference than the Orange County sections.
A good example is Democratic incumbent Mike Levin’s 49th Congressional District. In the June 6 primary, there were 121,000 votes in San Diego County and Levin received 53 percent, or 63,000. In Orange County, 67,000 voted and he only received 44 percent, or 29,000 votes. San Diego provided the boost that got him to a 50-percent average districtwide. His Republican opponent will be Brian Maryott, who ran against him in 2020.
Democrat Chris Duncan in the 74th Assembly District has a much more difficult path. He only received 42 percent, or 24,000 votes in Orange County (57,000 voted). In the San Diego County part of the district, he won 28,000, or 50 percent out of 55,000 votes. Better, but producing only a districtwide average of 46 percent against his opponent, Laurie Davies, on the primary ballot.